Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000611
Name HAGIBIS-19
From - To 05 Oct - 12 Oct
Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 278 km/h, Category 5
Maximum storm surge 1.7 m (12 Oct 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

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+ Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS 278 km/h 1.7 m n.a. 1.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 266 km/h 1.1 m 881 mm 2.5
GFS 252 km/h 1 m 601 mm 2.5
ECMWF 166 km/h 0.9 m 545 mm 0.5
Beta Version - All weather systems in the area: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Japan - Tropical Cycloine HAGIBIS update (ECHO 15 Oct 2019)Tue, 15 Oct 2019 13:08

  • The number of fatalities has increased to 66 after the passage of Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS in eastern Japan, while hundreds of people sustained injuries.
  • HAGIBIS brought heavy rainfall, which caused rivers to overflow and extensive flooding in communities around area, as well as further inland. According to initial estimates from national authorities, more than 10,700 houses have been damaged, nearly 35,000 households remain without electricity, and another 130,000 homes have no running water.
  • Red alerts for flooding have been issued for Nagano, Saitama, Tochigi, and Ibaraki prefectures (central-eastern Honshu Island), while drier conditions are forecast over the affected areas from 15 October.
Japan - Tropical Cycloine HAGIBIS update (ECHO 11 Oct 2019)Fri, 11 Oct 2019 13:06

  • Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS is moving north-northeast over the Philippine Sea towards Japan. On 11 October its centre was approximately 900 km south of Greater Tokyo Area and 650 km west-southwest of Hachijo Island (Izu Archipelago), with maximum sustained winds of 220 km/h.
  • HAGIBIS is expected to pass over northern Izu Archipelago, making landfall over the Greater Tokyo Area on the morning of 12 October, with maximum sustained winds between 150-170 km/h.
  • Flight and rail service interruptions have been announced for the Greater Tokyo Area, while emergency response teams have been already mobilised.
  • Red warnings for high waves have been issued for eastern coast of Honshu (from Kagoshima to Tokyo), as well as for Amami, Izu, and Ogasawara archipelagos.
  • Heavy rain will persist over most of Japan on 12 October.
Japan - Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS (ECHO 10 Oct 2019)Thu, 10 Oct 2019 13:00

  • Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS is moving north-northeast over the Philippine Sea towards Japan. On 10 October its centre was approximately 1,350 km south of Tokyo and 1,200 km east-southeast of Okinawa Island, with maximum sustained winds of 259 km/h.
  • HAGIBIS will continue north, then north-east, approaching the coast of eastern Honshu Island and Tokyo on 12 October afternoon, with maximum sustained winds up to 190 km/h.
  • Moderate to locally heavy rain is forecast for eastern Honshu Island on 11 October and heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge on 12-13 October.A red alert warning for heavy rain and high waves remains in effect for Tokyo.
  • The storm is expected to weaken and become a large storm in the Bering Sea.
  • Japan Rail announced that it would likely suspend services on multiple lines. Both Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways will suspend flights from Friday to Sunday.
Japan, Northern Mariana Islands - Tropical Cycloine HAGIBIS update (ECHO 09 Oct 2019)Wed, 09 Oct 2019 12:56

  • Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS continues north over the Philippine Sea. On 9 October at 0.00 its centre was approximately 1,700 km south of Tokyo, with maximum sustained winds of 259 km/h.
  • HAGIBIS inflicted minor damage on facilities in Saipan, Rota, and Tinian (Northern Mariana Islands). 148 people are sheltered in emergency evacuation centres on Saipan.
  • HAGIBIS will weaken as its approaches the coast of eastern Honshu and Tokyo on 12 October, as an intense typhoon.
  • A red warning for high waves has been issued for Tokyo and rain is expected from 11 October.
Northern Mariana Islands, Guam - Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS update (ECHO 08 Oct 2019)Tue, 08 Oct 2019 13:06

  • Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS is moving away from Northern Mariana Islands and has entered the Philippine Sea. On 8 October at 0.00 UTC its centre was 280 km north-west of Saipan (Northern Mariana Islands), with maximum sustained winds of 250 km/h (Category 4).
  • Power failures and floods have been reported in Saipan and government offices and public schools remain closed in Northern Mariana. A state of emergency has been declared for Northern Mariana and emergency response teams have been mobilised. In October 2018 Saipan and Tinian were significantly affected by Tropical Cyclone YUTU.
  • Over the next 24 hours, HAGIBIS will further intensify to a Category 5, with maximum sustained winds up to 269 km/h as it continues north.
  • A typhoon warning is in effect for Saipan, Tinian, Alamagan, and Pagan islands and a tropical storm warning for Agrihan Island. Strong wind and rain is forecast in Northern Mariana.
Northern Mariana Islands, Guam - Tropical Cycloine HAGIBIS (ECHO 07 Oct 2019)Mon, 07 Oct 2019 12:59

  • Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS is moving north-west towards the Mariana Islands. On 7 October at 0.00 UTC, its centre was approximately 400 km east of Saipan (Northern Mariana Islands), with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (Category 3 hurricane).
  • HAGIBIS will strengthen as it passes close to the uninhabited Anatahan and Farallon de Medinilla islands on 7 October, with maximum sustained winds of 222-250 km/h.
  • Government offices and public schools are closed in the Northern Marianas, while emergency shelters have been put at the disposal of the local population.
  • A typhoon warning has been issued for Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan and Pagan Islands (Northern Mariana), while a tropical storm warning is in effect for Rota, Agrihan, and Guam.
  • HAGIBIS is expected to bring heavy rain, strong winds and thunderstorms over Mariana Islands on 7-8 October. Flash flood warnings have been issued for Saipan and Tinian.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2015. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: JRC (56), (2), BOM (1), JTWC (1), NASA (1), NOAA (1), OCHA (1), TRMM (1), INFORM (2),