Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NORBERT-20
Off-shore

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2020-10-15 08:33


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 150831
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Vertical wind shear, cool waters, and a dry and stable atmosphere
have taken a toll on Norbert. The system has been devoid of deep
convection for more than 12 hours, and therefore it has become a
post-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is set at 25 kt,
which is based on a TAFB Dvorak CI number of T1.5. This could
be a little generous as the system has likely continued to spin
down since the previous advisory. The remnant low should continue
to weaken today, and the global models indicate that the low will
open up into a trough of low pressure off the west coast of the
Baja California peninsula by tonight.

The post-tropical cyclone has slowed down and is now moving
north-northwestward at about 6 kt. A slow north-northwestward
motion within the weak low-level steering flow is expected until
dissipation occurs.

This is the last NHC advisory on Norbert. For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 26.2N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 15/1800Z 27.1N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-10-15 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 150831
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020

...NORBERT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 116.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Norbert was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 116.1 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near
7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue until
dissipation occurs later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast and the remnant low is expected to dissipate
later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Norbert. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-10-15 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 150830
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0900 UTC THU OCT 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 116.1W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 116.1W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 115.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.1N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 116.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON NORBERT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2020-10-15 02:39


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 150237
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020

There are a few convective cells located more than 60 n mi to the
west-northwest of Norbert's center, but for the most part, organized
deep convection ceased around the time of the previous advisory.
Assuming a spin down of the circulation since the afternoon ASCAT
pass, and based on lower satellite estimates, Norbert's estimated
intensity is now 25 kt. Further weakening is expected due to cool
waters and moderate-to-strong shear, and if deep convection does not
return soon, Norbert will degenerate into a remnant low overnight.
Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will open up into
a trough and dissipate just off the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula in about 24 hours.

Norbert has slowed down a bit, now that its shallower circulation
is not being influenced by the steering around a mid-level low to
its southwest as much as it was earlier today. The current motion
is toward the north-northwest (330/12 kt), and Norbert is expected
to slow down further until the time it dissipates. The updated NHC
track forecast lies on top of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 25.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 26.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-10-15 02:38


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 150237
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...NORBERT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 115.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 115.7 West. Norbert
is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
decrease in forward speed is expected overnight and on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected, and Norbert is forecast to become
a remnant low overnight. The remnant low is then expected to
dissipate Thursday afternoon or evening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-10-15 02:38


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 150236
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.7W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.7W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.7N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 115.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2020-10-14 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 142033
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are clearly taking a toll
on Norbert. Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed as
Norbert has lost most, if not all, of its deep convection. Water
vapor imagery shows a tongue of dry air drawn into the cyclone's
circulation by a mid-level low pressure system centered to the west
of Norbert. If current trends continue, Norbert could degenerate
into a remnant low tonight or early Thursday. The advisory
intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on a 1750Z ASCAT-B overpass
that showed 25-30 kt winds in the northern semicircle of Norbert.
This is consistent with T2.0 subjective Dvorak classifications from
SAB and TAFB.

Norbert has moved a bit faster than was previously forecast, and
its initial motion is estimated at 330/15 kt. The track guidance
consensus depicts a northwestward motion with a decrease in forward
speed through tonight as the depression moves between a mid-level
ridge over northern Mexico and the aforementioned mid-level low. A
slow northward turn is expected on Thursday. The NHC track forecast
was adjusted slightly to the right of the previous forecast based
on 12Z global model trends.

Norbert will continue weakening during the next day or so in an
environment characterized by 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear, dry
mid-level air, and low oceanic heat content. The official intensity
forecast shows remnant low status at 24 h and dissipation at 36 h,
which is consistent with the consensus of reliable global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 24.7N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 25.9N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 26.9N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

2020-10-14 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 142032
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...SHEARED NORBERT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 114.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 114.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h). A northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected tonight, followed by a slower northward motion on Thursday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Norbert is
expected to become a remnant low tonight or Thursday. The remnant
low is forecast to dissipate by Thursday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

2020-10-14 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 142032
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
2100 UTC WED OCT 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.9N 115.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.9N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 114.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

2020-10-14 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 141558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.10.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 58.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2020 14.3N 58.2W WEAK
00UTC 15.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 113.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2020 22.8N 113.7W WEAK
00UTC 15.10.2020 23.9N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.0N 133.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.10.2020 12.1N 134.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.10.2020 12.8N 135.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2020 13.6N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2020 14.3N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2020 14.7N 138.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2020 15.3N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2020 16.1N 140.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2020 17.0N 142.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141558

>

2020-10-14 14:47


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 141446
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Recent satellite imagery suggests Norbert is beginning to feel the
effects of deep-layer shear and drier mid-level air associated with
a mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered to its
west-northwest. While Norbert still shows signs of organization, the
deepest convection is now displaced to the north of the estimated
center position. The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt this
morning based on objective and subjective current intensity Dvorak
estimates from UW-CIMSS, SAB, and TAFB. It is likely that Norbert
has peaked in terms of its intensity.

Norbert's estimated initial motion is 325/13 kt. The cyclone is
moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico
and the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low. This motion is
expected to continue for the next 24 h, with a gradual decrease in
forward speed as the upper low pulls away from Norbert. There is
increasing spread noted in the model track guidance as the steering
flow weakens between 24-48 h, but the general trend is for a
slightly more northward motion during this time. Only minor
adjustments were made to the official NHC track forecast, which
remains close to the various consensus aids including TVCE and
HCCA.

Increasing deep-layer shear, drier mid-level air, and cooler
sea-surface temperatures are expected to induce a weakening trend
beginning later today, and Norbert will likely become a tropical
depression this afternoon. The GFS simulated satellite imagery
suggests Norbert will lose its deep convection within the next
24-36 h, and the official NHC forecast shows the system degenerating
to a remnant low before dissipation at 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 23.1N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 24.4N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 25.6N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 26.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

2020-10-14 14:46


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 141444
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...NORBERT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 114.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 114.0 West. Norbert is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through
tonight, followed by a slower north-northwestward or northward
motion on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Norbert is expected to begin weakening later today and become a
remnant low late tonight or on Thursday. The remnant low is
forecast to dissipate by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

2020-10-14 14:45


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 141444
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
1500 UTC WED OCT 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.4N 115.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.6N 115.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 114.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN



>

2020-10-14 08:38


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 140837
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Norbert continues to produce a concentrated area of deep convection,
but it has been very difficult pinpointing the exact location of the
center overnight. Earlier ASCAT data and an 0152 UTC SSMIS
microwave overpass suggests that the center could be a little north
of the previous estimates, but overnight shortwave infrared imagery
and TAFB and SAB fixes still place it closer to the southern portion
of the convective mass. The advisory position is a compromise
between the various estimates, but leans toward the previous track
out of respect for continuity. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
support an intensity of 35 kt, which is used as the initial wind
speed for this advisory. The earlier ASCAT overpass revealed some
slightly stronger wind vectors, but these appear to have been rain
inflated.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 325/13 kt.
Norbert is moving northwestward between a mid-level ridge over
northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low to its northwest. This
general heading should continue over the next 24 to 36 hours with
some reduction in forward speed as Norbert begins to weaken and is
steered by the weaker low-level flow. The dynamical models are
in general agreement, but there are differences in how fast and far
north Norbert will move. The models that maintain a deeper cyclone
depict a more poleward motion. The NHC track leans toward the
southern solutions by 24 hours since Norbert is likely to weaken and
become a more vertically shallow system by that time.

Norbert only has a short window of opportunity in which to
strengthen this morning. After that time, increasing southwesterly
shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should begin to weaken
the tropical storm. Norbert is likely to become a remnant low in
24 to 36 hours as it encounters sea surface temperatures below 26C,
moderate to strong shear, and a more stable atmosphere. The global
models indicate that the low will dissipate within a couple of
days, and the NHC forecast follows suit.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 22.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 23.5N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 24.9N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 26.0N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-10-14 08:37


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 140836
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020

...NORBERT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 113.3W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 113.3 West. Norbert is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through
tonight. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is
forecast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning, but the
tropical storm is forecast to begin weakening by later today.
Norbert is forecast to become a remnant low tonight or early
Thursday, and dissipate by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-10-14 08:37


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 140836
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0900 UTC WED OCT 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 113.3W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 113.3W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.5N 114.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.9N 115.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.0N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2020-10-14 02:38


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 140236
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020

Norbert has increased in organization this evening, with a pair of
microwave passes as well as infrared satellite imagery showing a
tightly curved band of convection wrapping about halfway around the
low-level center. In addition, a well-defined outflow pattern is
surrounding the cyclone in the current low-shear environment. Based
on these developmental trends, the initial intensity has been
increased to 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB.

There is only about a 12-18 h opportunity for Norbert to maintain
its current strength or perhaps intensify a little more before it
reaches a hostile environment just to its north. By 24 h, the
cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly shear and a
dry and stable atmospheric environment, while moving over cooler
waters. Therefore, the cyclone should start weakening by 24 h and
should degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by
48 h. The model guidance indicates the remnant low should dissipate
very soon thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to
the latest consensus intensity guidance, and is only higher than the
previous NHC forecast due to the increase in the initial intensity.

Norbert has been moving northwestward at around 13 kt since this
afternoon as the cyclone has been steered between a deep-layer ridge
centered over northern Mexico and an upper-level low offshore of
Baja California. As the upper low shifts westward over the next day
or so, Norbert's forward speed should decrease. What remains of
Norbert should then turn northward on Thursday within the low-level
flow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 21.0N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 22.4N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 25.5N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 26.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-14 02:38


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 140236
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020

...NORBERT STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 112.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 112.7 West. Norbert is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A continued
northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected through Wednesday. A turn to the north is forecast to occur
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
Norbert is forecast to begin weakening on Wednesday and should
dissipate by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-14 02:38


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 140236
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0300 UTC WED OCT 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.7W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.7W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.5N 115.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 112.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-10-13 20:38


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 132037
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020

Low pressure associated with the remnants of Norbert has become
well-organized today, with persistent convection near and north of
the estimated low-level center. Partial ScatSat and ASCAT-B passes
near of this system suggest the low-level circulation is closed,
and 25-30 kt scatterometer winds are noted in the northeast
quadrant of the low. Additionally, earlier surface observations from
Socorro Island, Mexico and ship observations from the Nathaniel B
Palmer research vessel reported northwesterly winds on the backside
of the system. Together, all this information supports the
conclusion that the remnants of Norbert have redeveloped into a
tropical depression. The initial intensity for Norbert is set at 30
kt based on the recent ASCAT-B overpass and a T2.0 subjective
Dvorak classification from SAB.

Norbert is only forecast to be a short-lived depression given the
increasingly hostile environmental conditions it is expected to face
during the next 24-48 h. While the vertical wind shear is currently
weak, it is forecast to quickly increase by Wednesday courtesy of a
mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered offshore of the
Baja California peninsula. The majority of the guidance shows little
or no intensity change, and the official NHC intensity forecast
calls for Norbert to remain a 30-kt depression during the next 24 h.
This should be followed by weakening as Norbert transitions to a
remnant low by 48 h due to 20+ kt of deep-layer shear and decreased
oceanic heat content. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by
Thursday night.

Norbert is currently moving to the northwest at 11 kt. This general
motion will continue for the next 24 h as the depression moves
between a deep-layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and the
upper low offshore of Baja California. As the upper low shifts
westward, Norbert's forward speed will slow as the depression is
drawn more northward before dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 19.8N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 23.0N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 24.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 25.5N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi


>

2020-10-13 20:38


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 132036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020

...NORBERT REDEVELOPS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 111.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 111.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).
This general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday,
followed by a slower forward speed as Norbert turns northward on
Thursday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Norbert is
forecast to dissipate by Thursday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi


>

2020-10-13 20:38


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 132036
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
2100 UTC TUE OCT 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.7W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.7W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.5N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

2020-10-13 16:10


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 131607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.10.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 110.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2020 0 18.2N 110.1W 1007 19
0000UTC 14.10.2020 12 19.2N 111.5W 1008 24
1200UTC 14.10.2020 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.8N 132.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.10.2020 60 12.8N 133.6W 1006 25
1200UTC 16.10.2020 72 12.5N 135.9W 1006 25
0000UTC 17.10.2020 84 12.3N 138.2W 1005 25
1200UTC 17.10.2020 96 12.2N 139.8W 1006 23
0000UTC 18.10.2020 108 12.4N 141.1W 1005 24
1200UTC 18.10.2020 120 12.5N 142.5W 1006 23
0000UTC 19.10.2020 132 12.8N 143.3W 1005 26
1200UTC 19.10.2020 144 13.1N 144.6W 1005 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 29.2N 55.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2020 108 28.6N 55.5W 1008 26
1200UTC 18.10.2020 120 27.2N 56.2W 1006 29
0000UTC 19.10.2020 132 25.7N 57.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 19.10.2020 144 24.8N 59.1W 1007 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131607

>

2020-10-13 16:09


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 131607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.10.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 110.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.10.2020 18.2N 110.1W WEAK
00UTC 14.10.2020 19.2N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.8N 132.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.10.2020 12.8N 133.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.10.2020 12.5N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2020 12.3N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2020 12.2N 139.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2020 12.4N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2020 12.5N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2020 12.8N 143.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2020 13.1N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 29.2N 55.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.10.2020 28.6N 55.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.10.2020 27.2N 56.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2020 25.7N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2020 24.8N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131607

>

2020-10-13 04:05


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 130403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 13.10.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 52.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.10.2020 0 12.2N 52.2W 1012 29
1200UTC 13.10.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 108.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.10.2020 0 17.5N 108.7W 1006 19
1200UTC 13.10.2020 12 17.8N 110.3W 1007 20
0000UTC 14.10.2020 24 19.5N 111.6W 1007 22
1200UTC 14.10.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.7N 126.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.10.2020 36 11.1N 127.2W 1006 25
0000UTC 15.10.2020 48 11.8N 128.9W 1006 23
1200UTC 15.10.2020 60 12.2N 130.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 16.10.2020 72 12.4N 132.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 16.10.2020 84 11.8N 134.6W 1004 25
0000UTC 17.10.2020 96 11.9N 136.6W 1003 29
1200UTC 17.10.2020 108 12.0N 138.5W 1004 33
0000UTC 18.10.2020 120 12.6N 139.7W 1003 31
1200UTC 18.10.2020 132 13.2N 141.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 19.10.2020 144 13.4N 142.5W 1004 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130402

>

2020-10-10 09:19


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 019
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 13.8N 106.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 106.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.8N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 106.7W.
10OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1269 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 00
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. //
NNNN

>

2020-10-10 08:36


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 100835
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Norbert Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Recent satellite imagery shows multiple low-level cloud swirls in
the vicinity of Norbert's last estimated center position. A 0350Z
ASCAT-A pass depicts a broad cyclonic circulation with at least two
centers, and the only 20 kt or higher winds are displaced well to
the southeast and likely associated with the Intertropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In fact, the most well-defined circulation
in the scatterometer data appears to have originated from the ITCZ
and not Norbert. Additionally, Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB
indicate the system is too weak to classify or barely classifiable.
Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on Norbert as its
remnants appear to have merged into a broader ITCZ circulation over
the eastern Pacific Ocean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 13.8N 106.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF NORBERT
12H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky


>

2020-10-10 08:35


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 100834
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Norbert Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...NORBERT DISSIPATES WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 106.7W
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Norbert were located near
latitude 13.8 North, longitude 106.7 West. The remnants of Norbert
will likely drift northward over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants
of Norbert please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky


>

2020-10-10 08:35


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 100834
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.7W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.7W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 106.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
OF NORBERT PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER
FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY



>

2020-10-10 03:19


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 100400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 106.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 106.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.4N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.9N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.1N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.3N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100400Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 106.7W.
10OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1271 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-10 02:39


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 100237
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Small, sporadic bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near
the center of Norbert, mainly in the western semicircle due to some
easterly vertical wind shear. Earlier satellite-derived wind data
suggested that Norbert's low-level circulation is becoming
elongated, and its structure will be reassessed overnight when new
scatterometer data becomes available. The initial intensity remains
25 kt with this advisory. The global models suggest Norbert will
open up into a trough and merge with the Intertropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ) within the next 48-72 h. However, it could degenerate
into a remnant low even sooner if convection wanes. The official
forecast hangs on to pesky Norbert for a couple more days before
showing dissipation by 60 h.

Norbert is moving northwestward at 4 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to
the northeast of the cyclone will continue steering Norbert
slowly to the northwest for the next couple of days. The NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains near the
track model consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 14.0N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg


>

2020-10-10 02:37


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 100236
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...NORBERT REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 106.8W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 106.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
slow northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Norbert is expected to dissipate by Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg


>

2020-10-10 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 100234
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.8W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.8W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BERG



>

2020-10-09 21:38


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 106.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 106.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.8N 106.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.4N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.7N 107.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.9N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092200Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 106.3W.
09OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1303 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-09 20:36


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 092034
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Deep convection has persisted near the center of Norbert for the
past several hours. However, a recent ASCAT overpass as well as
visible satellite imagery revealed that the low-level circulation is
becoming elongated. In addition, the wind field surrounding the
depression suggests that is remains very near, if not embedded in
the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The initial intensity of
25 kt is based off data from the ASCAT overpass. The GFS and ECMWF
both indicate that Norbert will open into a trough as it becomes
absorbed into the ITCZ in a couple of days, and the official
forecast now indicates dissipation just after 48 h.

Norbert continues to move toward the northwest at 3 kt. A slow
northwestward motion is expected until dissipation as the cyclone is
steered by weak mid-level ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC
track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near
the various track consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 13.5N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.8N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-10-09 20:36


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 092034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...NORBERT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 106.3W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 106.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
slow northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Norbert is expected to dissipate by Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-10-09 20:36


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 092034
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.3W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.3W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.8N 106.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 106.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-10-09 14:59


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 091600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 106.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.6N 106.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.1N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.8N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.9N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 106.1W.
09OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1319 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-09 14:34


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 091433
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Although the deep convection associated with Norbert has increased
this morning during the diurnal maximum, it is lacking in
organization. However, this new convection has bought the depression
some time as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 25
kt based off the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from
TAFB. Since there is plenty of warm water along Norbert's forecast
track, the cyclone will likely continue to sputter rounds of
convection like this morning's for the next couple of days, which
should at least maintain the system as a tropical depression during
that time. In a few days, it is expected that the combination of a
slow spin down of Norbert's vortex, and an increase in the
environmental low-level flow should cause the system to open into a
trough of low pressure. The latest NHC forecast no longer indicates
a remnant low phase, but instead forecasts Norbert to remain a weak
depression until dissipation in a few days. This solution is in
agreement with the majority of the global models.

Norbert is finally making its anticipated move toward the northwest,
albeit at a meager 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected
until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by weak mid-level
ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is little
changed from the previous one, and is near the various track
consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 13.3N 106.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 13.6N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 14.9N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-09 14:33


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 091432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...DISORGANIZED NORBERT MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 106.1W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 106.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
slow northwestward motion is expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Norbert is expected to dissipate by Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-09 14:33


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 091432
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.6N 106.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.9N 108.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 106.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-10-09 09:50


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 13.1N 105.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 105.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.4N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.9N 106.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.4N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.7N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.9N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
091000Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 106.0W.
09OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1327 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091600Z, 092200Z, 100400Z AND 101000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-09 08:40


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 090838
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Norbert is clearly struggling to remain a tropical depression. The
low-level center is exposed in recent satellite imagery, likely due
to a combination of east-southeasterly vertical wind shear and dry
mid-level air in the surrounding environment. The nearest deep
convection is located roughly 50 miles south of the center, and it
is very poorly organized. Unfortunately, overnight ASCAT passes
missed the center of Norbert, but a partial overpass of the eastern
semicircle revealed 20 kt winds. A blend of the UW-CIMSS objective
estimate and the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate supports an
intensity of 25 kt, which may be generous given the lack of
sustained convection near the cyclone's center.

Vertical wind shear is taking its toll on Norbert, and the latest
SHIPS guidance suggests the deep-layer shear will increase over the
next 24-48 h. Thus, Norbert is unlikely to survive the five-day
forecast period. If new convection doesn't develop soon, it could
degenerate into a remnant low as early as today. The latest NHC
forecast explicitly calls for dissipation by 72 h. Norbert is
starting to drift northwestward, and this general motion should
continue over the next couple of days as a weak mid-level ridge
builds to the northeast of the depression. The NHC track forecast
closely follows the consensus aids and remains very close to the
previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 13.2N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 13.4N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 13.9N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky


>

2020-10-09 08:39


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090837
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...WEAKLY NORBERT STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 106.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 106.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h), and
this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Norbert is expected to become a remnant low by Saturday
and dissipate by Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky


>

2020-10-09 08:39


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 090837
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.9N 106.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY

>

2020-10-09 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 090358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.10.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.10.2020 15.7N 126.6W WEAK
12UTC 09.10.2020 15.4N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2020 15.4N 129.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2020 14.4N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2020 13.6N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2020 13.1N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2020 13.3N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2020 13.3N 143.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2020 13.4N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2020 13.8N 148.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2020 14.0N 151.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 93.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.10.2020 25.2N 93.5W INTENSE
12UTC 09.10.2020 27.6N 93.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.10.2020 30.5N 92.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.10.2020 33.0N 90.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.10.2020 34.2N 88.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2020 35.0N 86.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 106.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.10.2020 13.1N 106.0W WEAK
12UTC 09.10.2020 13.8N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2020 14.3N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2020 15.5N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2020 16.6N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2020 17.5N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2020 17.7N 108.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2020 17.8N 109.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2020 17.3N 110.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 36.4N 15.5E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.10.2020 36.4N 15.5E WEAK
00UTC 13.10.2020 41.5N 17.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2020 42.7N 16.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.0N 23.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2020 12.0N 23.0W WEAK
00UTC 15.10.2020 12.9N 24.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090358

>

2020-10-09 03:06


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 106.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.1N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.5N 106.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.2N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.6N 107.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.8N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.0N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.0N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.0N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 106.1W.
09OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 00
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-10-09 02:44


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 090242
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Norbert's satellite presentation has changed little in the past
several hours. Intermittent bursts of deep convection continue
to pulse near the center, and the depression's asymmetric
appearance indicates it is still experiencing southeasterly shear.
The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on a T1.5 Dvorak
classification from TAFB and earlier satellite-derived wind data.

Environmental conditions are not expected to change much during the
next several days. Norbert will remain over warm sea-surface
temperatures, but weak to moderate east-southeasterly shear will
likely persist over the cyclone. Little intensity change is
expected over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast
keeps Norbert as a 25-kt tropical depression through the next 60
h, although minor intensity fluctuations are possible. Between
36-72 h, increasing deep-layer shear should expedite Norbert's
degeneration into a remnant low, and this advisory calls for
Norbert to become a remnant low at 72 h.

Norbert has moved little in the past 6-12 h, as the large-scale
steering currents remain weak. A weak mid-level ridge is forecast
to build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through Saturday,
which should steer Norbert slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward. A mid- to upper-level low is expected to move across
northern Mexico on Sunday, which could cause Norbert to stall or
meander once again if it remains a depression. Later in the
forecast period, whatever remains of Norbert should move westward
as it becomes embedded within the low-level easterly trades. The
latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly towards the left of
the previous forecast, in line with the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 13.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 13.1N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 13.5N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 14.2N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z 15.0N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg


>

2020-10-09 02:41


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090239
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DISORGANIZED NORBERT REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 106.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. The
depression is currently stationary. A slow west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is expected to begin on Friday and continue
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg

>

2020-10-09 02:40


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 090238
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.1N 106.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.5N 106.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 15.0N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 106.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BERG

>

2020-10-08 21:26


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 106.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 106.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.0N 106.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.3N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.9N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.5N 107.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.8N 107.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.9N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.0N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.1N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
082200Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 106.1W.
08OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1322 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090400Z, 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-10-08 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 082033
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Norbert has a ragged and disorganized appearance, with asymmetrical
convection bursting intermittently around the center. Satellite
imagery suggests that the system is now experiencing some
southeasterly shear. A recent ASCAT overpass sampled peak winds of
24 kt, so the advisory intensity will remain 25 kt.

The current environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to
change much over the next few days. Therefore, only minor
fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By
72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter
a more stable atmosphere, which would limit convection and cause
Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible
that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to
be declared a remnant low before that time. Another plausible
scenario is that Norbert's low level circulation dissipates and
opens up into a surface trough later in the forecast period. The
only change to the latest NHC forecast is that no further
strengthening is indicated, which is agreement with every available
intensity model except the SHIPS guidance.

Norbert has barely budged since early this morning due to a lack of
steering currents. A weak mid-level ridge is forecast to build to
the northeast of the cyclone Friday through Saturday, which should
cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By
Sunday, however, a mid-upper level low digging across northern
Mexico should weaken the ridge, and the model guidance has trended
toward Norbert once again meandering for a couple of days. By day 5,
low-level ridging building to the northwest of Norbert should cause
the shallow system to begin a westward motion. Due to the lack of
run-to-run model consistency in the 3-5 day period, that portion of
the track forecast is of low confidence. The NHC forecast track was
changed little through 48 h, then is slower at 60-96 h to reflect
the second collapse of the steering currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 13.1N 106.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 14.5N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 14.8N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 15.0N 107.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z 15.1N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-08 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 082032
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...POORLY ORGANIZED NORBERT REMAINS PARKED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 106.1W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 106.1 West. The
depression is stationary and little motion is expected through
tonight. A slow west-northwest to northwest motion is expected
Friday through Saturday. The system is then forecast to meander
again later this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-10-08 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 082032
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 106.1W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 106.1W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 106.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.5N 107.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.8N 107.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 107.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 15.1N 109.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 106.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-10-08 15:07


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 106.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 106.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.0N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.0N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.4N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.1N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.9N 108.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.5N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.8N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.9N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 106.2W.
08OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1314 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082200Z, 090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-08 14:44


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 081443
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Intermittent bursts of deep convection are maintaining the
circulation of Norbert. First-light visible satellite imagery shows
the latest burst over the northeastern potion of the cyclone with a
partially exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being
held at 25 kt, and is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as data from an
earlier ASCAT overpass.

The environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to change much
over the next few days, with perhaps some slight increase in the
atmospheric moisture in about 24 h. Therefore, only minor
fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By
72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter
a more stable atmosphere, which should limit convection and cause
Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible
that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to
be declared a remnant low before that time.

Norbert has been nearly stationary since the previous advisory, and
very little motion is expected today due to a lack of steering
currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to slowly build to the
northeast of the cyclone Friday through the weekend, which should
cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By
late in the forecast period, the forecast track becomes quite
uncertain, as there are now indications that whatever is left of
Norbert may interact with a disturbance to its west. The latest NHC
track forecast is little changed from the previous one through 72 h,
but is left of that track beyond 72 h due to a shift in the
consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 13.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 13.0N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 13.0N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 13.4N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 15.5N 108.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 15.8N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-08 14:44


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 081442
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT REMAINS STATIONARY SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 106.2W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 106.2 West. The
depression is nearly stationary, and little movement is expected
today. A slow west-southwestward to westward motion should begin
tonight into Friday. A slightly faster west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is expected by this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-08 14:43


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 081441
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.2W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.2W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.0N 106.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.0N 106.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.4N 107.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.5N 108.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 15.8N 109.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-10-08 09:54


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 106.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 106.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.0N 106.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.0N 106.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.2N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.5N 107.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.4N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.3N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.0N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.5N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 106.3W.
08OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1309 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-08 08:45


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 080843
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Norbert was very close to becoming a remnant low overnight. A recent
burst of deep convection to the southeast of the partially exposed
low-level center was sufficient to keep Norbert as a tropical
depression for this advisory. Water vapor imagery indicates the
depression is still battling dry mid-level air on the northern
periphery of the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered
to 25 kt based on a 04 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that showed max winds of
25 kt in the southwest quadrant of Norbert.

Norbert is presently drifting east-southeastward under weak
steering currents, and the cyclone may continue meandering
erratically for the next 6-12 h. Then, Norbert is forecast to move
slowly west-southwestward or westward through 48 h. Thereafter, a
mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north and northeast of
Norbert, which should steer the system northwestward at a slightly
faster speed. The NHC forecast track is shifted slightly to the
right of the previous one based on the guidance consensus aids
including TVCE and HCCA.

Although drier mid-level air continues to impinge on the northern
side of Norbert's circulation, the depression remains in an
otherwise favorable environment of high oceanic heat content and
light vertical wind shear. If Norbert can survive the slight
increase in deep-layer shear depicted by the SHIPS guidance during
the next 24 h, improving environmental conditions thereafter could
allow Norbert to at least remain a depression for several days.
Alternatively, moderate shear and additional dry air intrusions
could cause Norbert to degenerate into a remnant low at almost
any time. The NHC intensity forecast assumes the first scenario and
keeps Norbert as a 25-30 kt depression for the next several days. By
96-120 h, GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests the cyclone will
be devoid of convection as it moves into a drier mid-level
environment. Thus, the official forecast depicts a transition to
remnant low status by day 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 13.2N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 13.0N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 13.2N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 13.5N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 14.4N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky


>

2020-10-08 08:44


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 080842
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 106.3W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 106.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).
Little movement is expected today, with a west-southwestward motion
forecast to begin tonight into Friday. A slightly faster westward
or west-northwestward motion is expected by this weekend.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

>

2020-10-08 08:42


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 080841
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.0N 106.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.2N 107.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.5N 107.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 108.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY



>

2020-10-08 03:01


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 106.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 106.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.2N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.1N 107.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.0N 107.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.2N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.9N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.9N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.5N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.0N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 106.9W.
08OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1291 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-08 02:41


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 080240
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Tropical Depression Norbert is still struggling to maintain any
deep convection near its center. Satellite imagery indicates the
low-level center remains exposed, and a small convective burst
noted in recent infrared imagery is already collapsing. The initial
intensity is perhaps generously held at 30 kt based on a blend of
recent objective satellite estimates and Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB. Overnight scatterometer data should help further
assess whether additional weakening has occurred.

Norbert continues to meander within a weak steering pattern, and
its center has drifted southeast of the previous advisory position.
Little movement is expected during the next 12 h, but Norbert
should begin slowly moving west-southwestward from 12-36 h. Then,
the cyclone should move west-northwestward or northwestward at
around 5 kt for the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-level
ridge builds to the north and northeast of Norbert. No significant
changes were made to the NHC track forecast with this advisory.

Although current satellite trends do not bode well for Norbert, the
system remains embedded in a favorable environment of warm water
and light vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS guidance suggests
the deep-layer shear will increase slightly during the next 24 h,
which combined with any more dry air intrusions could cause Norbert
to degenerate into a remnant low. On the other hand, increasing
mid-level moisture and weaker shear beyond this time period could
allow for a convective burst capable of getting Norbert back to
minimal tropical storm strength. Given the mixed signals for small
intensity fluctuations in either direction, the official intensity
forecast holds Norbert's intensity steady for the next several
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 13.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 13.1N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 13.0N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 13.2N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 13.9N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg


>

2020-10-08 02:38


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 080237
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH DRY AIR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 106.8W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 106.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 1 mph (2 km/h). Little
motion is expected tonight, with a southwestward drift expected on
Thursday. A slow motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is
expected Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg


>

2020-10-08 02:37


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 080236
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.8W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 170 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.8W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.1N 107.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.0N 107.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.2N 108.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.9N 109.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BERG



>

2020-10-07 21:40


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 107.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 107.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 13.4N 107.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.3N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.1N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.1N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.8N 108.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.7N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.5N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.0N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 107.1W.
07OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1276 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-07 20:52


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 072050
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Convection has decreased in association with Norbert since the last
advisory, with the system now comprised of a mostly-exposed swirl
of low-level clouds. Based on the weakened cloud pattern, the
initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt and Norbert is downgraded to
a depression.

Daytime visible imagery shows that Norbert is south of the
previous advisory location, and the initial motion is a somewhat
uncertain 180/2. Little motion is expected during the next 12 h
or so as the cyclone is in an area of weak steering currents. A
west-southwestward drift is forecast from 12-36 h. This will be
followed by a slow motion toward the west-northwest or northwest
for the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-level ridge
builds to the north and northeast of Norbert. The forecast guidance
has shifted to the right at 96 and 120 h, so the new forecast track
is shifted in that direction as well. Otherwise, the new forecast,
which lies near the various consensus models, has only slight
changes since the previous advisory.

While Norbert is seemingly in a favorable environment of light
vertical wind shear over warm water, none of the intensity guidance
calls for significant strengthening. Indeed, the GFS and ECMWF
models call for the system to dissipate before 120 h, possibly due
to dry air intrusions. Given the favorable shear and sea surface
temperatures, the official intensity forecast calls for the system
to survive for 5 days with little change in strength in overall
agreement with the intensity guidance. It should be noted that if
any strong convective bursts occur, these could cause the system to
strengthen just the little bit it needs to regain tropical storm
strength.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 13.4N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.4N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 13.3N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 13.1N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 13.1N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 13.8N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 14.7N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 18.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-10-07 20:51


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 072050
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...NORBERT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 107.1W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 107.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h). Little
motion is expected tonight, with a southwestward drift expected on
Thursday. A slow motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is
expected Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-10-07 20:51


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 072050
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.4N 107.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.1N 107.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.1N 108.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.8N 108.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.7N 109.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 18.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

2020-10-07 15:09


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 008
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 107.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 107.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.1N 107.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.0N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.9N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.8N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.1N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.9N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.5N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 17.5N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 107.1W.
07OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1237
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 00
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXTWARNINGS AT 072200Z, 080400Z,
081000Z AND 081600Z. REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN33 PHNC).//
NNNN

>

2020-10-07 14:49


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 071447
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Norbert has recovered somewhat from the dry air intrusion that
occurred last night. A new burst of deep convection developed
near the center early this morning, but the associated cloud tops
are beginning to warm and the convection is becoming displaced over
the northeastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity
is being held at 35 kt, and is based off the Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.

The storm is struggling to stay organized despite being over warm
waters and in an environment of relatively low shear. By Thursday,
the SHIPS guidance suggests that the shear will increase to around
10-15 kt. This shear, along with occasional dry air intrusions
similar to one experienced last night, could gradually weaken the
system. On the other hand, the warm waters could counteract the
moderately negative environmental factors. The latest NHC forecast
still favors the latter scenario, and shows Norbert remaining a
35-kt tropical storm throughout the forecast period. This intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is a compromise
between the SHIPS guidance and the model consensus.

The initial motion is stationary, although the exact center location
has been difficult to pinpoint this morning. The steering flow is
forecast to remain very weak over the next couple of days, and most
of the models show little movement through tonight followed by a
slow westward drift Wednesday through Thursday. By late this week, a
mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north to northeast of
the cyclone, which should force Norbert on a west-northwestward
track. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one
through 72 h, but was adjusted a little north after that time due to
a northward shift in the guidance. However, the new track forecast
remains south of the consensus aids late in the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 14.2N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 14.1N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 14.0N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 13.9N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 13.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 14.1N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 14.9N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-10-07 14:48


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 071447
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...NORBERT NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 107.1W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 107.1 West. Norbert is
nearly stationary and the storm is expected to move little over the
next day or so. A drift to the west to west-northwest is expected
by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-07 14:48


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 071446
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.1W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.1W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.1N 107.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.0N 107.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.9N 107.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.8N 107.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.1N 108.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.9N 109.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-10-07 09:04


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 007
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 107.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 107.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.9N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 13.9N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.0N 107.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.0N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.1N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.6N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.5N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.5N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 107.1W.
07OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1248
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-07 08:49


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 070848
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Norbert has weakened as entrainment of dry air has disrupted the
compact system. The center was partially exposed overnight, but
recent infrared imagery shows a new burst of deep convection near
the center. Microwave imagery and ASCAT scatterometer wind data
indicated the center had drifted southwest from its previous
position, as the storm is beginning to meander within the weak
steering flow. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based
on the recent ASCAT-A overpass that showed a peak wind of 33 kt, as
well as a T2.5 Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

The intensity forecast for Norbert remains tricky given its small
circulation and the presence of dry air in the surrounding
environment. Sea-surface temperatures are more than sufficient for
at least modest strengthening, but the question will be whether
Norbert can survive the increased southeasterly shear that the
SHIPS guidance calls for during the next 24-48 h. If so, Norbert
may remain a tropical storm through the next 5 days. Alternatively,
the shear and additional bouts of dry air entrainment could weaken
the system to a depression or even a remnant low late in the
forecast period. While small intensity changes due to diurnal
fluctuations in convection are certainly possible, the official NHC
forecast keeps Norbert's intensity forecast at 35 kt in
consideration of the mixed signals noted in the latest intensity
guidance.

As previously mentioned, the center of Norbert has drifted to the
southwest overnight. The storm is expected to remain nearly
stationary over the next couple of days as distant Hurricane Delta
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has weakened the ridge that had
been steering Norbert. Therefore, the forecast track through 48 h
is more uncertain than usual given the potential for erratic motion
as indicated by the diverging model solutions. By Friday, Norbert
should begin moving slowly westward or west-northwestward as the
ridge gradually builds to the north. The NHC track forecast remains
fairly close to the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.0N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 13.9N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 14.0N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 14.1N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 14.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 15.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart


>

2020-10-07 08:47


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 070846
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...NORBERT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR IMPACTS THE COMPACT
SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 107.1W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 107.1 West. Norbert is
drifting toward the southwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). The storm is
forecast to meander or remain nearly stationary over the next
couple of days.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart


>

2020-10-07 08:46


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 070845
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.9N 107.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.0N 107.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.1N 108.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/STEWART



>

2020-10-07 03:16


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 106.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 106.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.6N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.7N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.7N 107.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 14.7N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.8N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.2N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.0N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.5N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 106.9W.
07OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1226
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-07 02:40


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 070238
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Norbert's satellite presentation has degraded slightly over the
past several hours as its convective cloud tops have warmed
compared to earlier today. The system may be feeling the effects of
some weak westerly wind shear, as the coldest cloud tops are
displaced somewhat to the east of the estimated low-level center
position. Regardless, objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS
and a T3.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB support holding the
initial intensity at 45 kt with this advisory.

Sea surface temperatures of 29 degrees Celsius and 10 kt or less of
deep-layer vertical wind shear should support at least modest
strengthening during the next 24 h or so. The latest SHIPS guidance
indicates moderate southeasterly wind shear will develop over this
small cyclone by Thursday and persist into the upcoming weekend.
This should inhibit further intensification and may even cause
Norbert to weaken. There is once again a fairly large spread in the
intensity guidance, with the global models still struggling to
capture this compact system and depicting steady weakening during
the next few days. Meanwhile, SHIPS guidance maintains Norbert at
tropical storm strength and even shows some gradual strengthening.
Since the statistical-dynamical models have performed better with
Norbert, the NHC intensity forecast once again trends above the
consensus aids and closer to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance. The official
forecast shows Norbert peaking as a 50-kt tropical storm on
Wednesday, then weakening slightly on Thursday and leveling off
through the weekend.

Norbert is drifting slowly north-northwestward tonight. The storm
is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next couple of
days as distant Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
weakens the mid-level ridge that had been steering Norbert. This
weak steering environment could lead to some erratic storm motion
until the ridge becomes re-established later this week, but the
track guidance consensus suggests little movement during the next
couple of days. By Friday night, the storm should begin moving
slowly westward or west-northwestward, and the models are in better
agreement with regards to this general storm motion at 72 h and
beyond. The latest NHC track forecast follows the consensus aids
more closely than any individual model solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 14.6N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.7N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 14.7N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 15.2N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 16.0N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 16.5N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg

>

2020-10-07 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 070234
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...NORBERT'S INTENSITY HOLDS STEADY AS IT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 106.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 106.9 West. Norbert is
moving toward the north-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). The storm is
forecast to meander or remain nearly stationary over the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Modest strengthening is possible over the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.


$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg


>

2020-10-07 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 070233
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.6N 107.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 107.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.2N 108.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 16.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 16.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 106.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BERG



>

2020-10-06 21:42


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 106.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 106.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.5N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.5N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.5N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.5N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.5N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.8N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.5N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.0N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 106.6W.
06OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1244
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 062100Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-06 20:36


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 062034
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020

A compact central dense overcast with cloud tops occasionally
cooling to -80 degrees C has persisted over the center of Norbert
throughout the day. A recent ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 41
kt near the center of storm. However, due to the small size of the
cyclone, the highest winds are likely not being sampled. Therefore,
the initial intensity is being raised to 45 kt, and this is in good
agreement with the latest Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB.

Norbert is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind
shear while over very warm waters for the next couple of days.
Despite the positive environmental factors in the near term, model
guidance is in poor agreement on the future intensity of Norbert.
The spread in the forecast intensity has widened even further today,
with most of the global and hi-resolution dynamical models
weakening the system over the next few days, while the SHIPS and
LGEM guidance favor slow strengthening. Since the SHIPS guidance
has been the most accurate for Norbert's intensity thus far, the
latest NHC forecast is close to, but just below the SHIPS guidance
values through 48 h. After 48 h, the shear is expected to become
moderate, and there are indications that subsidence will increase
over the cyclone. These negative environmental factors should
inhibit further intensification, and could cause the cyclone to
weaken.

The steering currents around Norbert are collapsing, as the
mid-level ridge over southern Mexico dissipates in response to
Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Model tracks
diverge by a few hundred miles in varying directions while the
steering flow is weak. The consensus guidance is in between these
solutions and shows very little movement for the next 72 h. By late
this week, a weak mid-level ridge should build north of the cyclone,
which would result in a slow west-northwestward to westward motion.
The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the various consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.4N 106.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 14.5N 107.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 14.8N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 15.5N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-10-06 20:35


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 062033
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...NORBERT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 106.6W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 106.6 West. Norbert is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is forecast
to meander or be nearly stationary over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible over the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-06 20:35


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 062033
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 106.6W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 106.6W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.5N 107.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 110.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 106.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-10-06 15:26


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 004
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 14.0N 106.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 106.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.4N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.5N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.7N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.8N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.0N 107.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.2N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.7N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.1N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 106.6W.
06OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1263
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-06 15:11


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 061509
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.6W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.6W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 106.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.7N 106.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.8N 106.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.0N 107.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.2N 107.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 15.7N 109.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 106.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-10-06 14:44


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 061443
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020

The overall appearance of Norbert has changed little since early
this morning, with a mass of deep convection pulsating over the
low-level center. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity
at 40 kt.

The environment appears conducive for Norbert to strengthen over
warm waters with low vertical wind shear. Despite this, most of the
global and hi-res dynamical models do not strengthen Norbert, and in
fact the HWRF and HMON both weaken the system over the next couple
of days. Therefore, the consensus aids also do not indicate that
the system will intensify. On the other end of the spectrum, the
SHIPS guidance favors strengthening over the next couple of days
and indicates that Norbert will be nearing hurricane strength
within a few days. The latest NHC forecast remains above the
consensus aids but below the SHIPS guidance, suggesting some
gradual strengthening over the next 48 h, prior to the increase in
shear.

Norbert continues to move northwestward at 6 kt, steered by a
weakening mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The
steering currents are forecast to collapse by tonight, and the
cyclone is expected to meander through the middle of the week. By
late this week, a weak mid-level ridge should build north of the
cyclone which would result in a slow west-northwestward motion. Due
to the weak steering flow, there is a larger than normal spread in
the track guidance. The latest NHC forecast remains close to the
consensus aids, and is slightly faster then the previous forecast at
days 3-5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 14.2N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 14.5N 106.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 14.7N 106.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 14.8N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 15.0N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 15.2N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 15.7N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-06 14:44


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 061442
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...NORBERT CHANGES LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 106.6W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 106.6 West. Norbert is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected until tonight. The system is
forecast to meander thereafter through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-06 09:21


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 003
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 106.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 106.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.0N 106.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.1N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.3N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.5N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.7N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.9N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.0N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.5N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 106.2W.
06OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 19E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1295
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-06 08:55


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 060853
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Deep convection has persisted overnight in association with former
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, forming a well-defined central
dense overcast over the center. Additionally, a 0448 UTC ASCAT-B
overpass showed a compact, circular wind field with at least 35-40
kt in the eastern semicircle of the system. Thus, the initial
intensity has been raised to 40 kt, and the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Norbert.

Norbert is presently moving northwestward at 6 kt, steered by a
weakening mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The storm
is expected to slow down later today as the steering currents
collapse, and Norbert will likely meander offshore for several days
before resuming a slow west-northwestward motion late in the
forecast period. There remains above average spread in the track
guidance given the weak steering flow, and the NHC track forecast
lies fairly close to the consensus aids.

Norbert is a compact storm over very warm waters, and the limited
deep-layer shear it is experiencing should allow for steady
strengthening over the next couple of days. The global guidance
continues to struggle with this small storm, so the latest NHC
intensity forecast trends well above the consensus aids and closer
to the statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance. Given the very
favorable environmental conditions, it is certainly possible that
Norbert could intensify even more than forecast. By day 3 and
beyond, vertical wind shear is expected to increase, which could
cause the storm's intensity to level off through the end of the
forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.0N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 14.1N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 14.3N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 14.9N 107.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart

>

2020-10-06 08:53


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 060851
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 106.2W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 106.2 West. Norbert is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A decrease in
forward speed is expected today, and Norbert is forecast to remain
nearly stationary through midweek.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart


>

2020-10-06 08:51


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 060850
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 106.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.1N 106.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.9N 107.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 106.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/STEWART



>

2020-10-06 02:52


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 060251
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is beginning to show better signs of
organization tonight. Recent satellite imagery depicts a burst of
deep convection near the estimated center of the depression with
cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. This trend,
along with recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, suggests the system may
be nearing tropical storm strength. The initial intensity is
perhaps conservatively held at 30 kt for this advisory based on
earlier T2.0 classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The estimated initial motion of the depression remains 340/6 kt.
This general motion should continue through the overnight hours as
the system is steered by a mid-level ridge over southern Mexico.
As the ridge weakens through the middle of the week, the steering
currents will break down and the system will likely meander well
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico for several days. By
days 4-5, global models indicate the ridge should rebuild over
southern Mexico, which would eventually support a northwestward
motion late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast track shows
little change with this advisory, and remains close to the HFIP
corrected consensus HCCA.

The intensity forecast remains challenging with above average spread
in the guidance. The environmental conditions generally appear
favorable, with low to moderate deep-layer wind shear and warm sea
surface temperatures. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance
indicates gradual strengthening will occur over the next several
days. However, global models including the GFS and ECMWF, along with
the HWRF and HMON, forecast little intensity change or even
weakening as the system meanders well offshore. This could be a
product of the system struggling to separate from the Intertropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ), or possible upwelling as it drifts over the
same general area for several days. Given these mixed signals in the
guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains close to the previous
advisory and only shows modest strengthening during the forecast
period. This forecast still lies slightly above the IVCN and HCCA
consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 13.3N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky


>

2020-10-06 02:48


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 060247
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 105.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 105.6
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and a decrease in forward speed is expected through
early Tuesday. The depression is forecast to remain nearly
stationary through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday,
and then little change in strength is forecast through midweek.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky


>

2020-10-06 02:47


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 060246
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 105.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 105.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 105.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY



>

2020-10-05 21:00


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 052058
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data indicate that the area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern
coast of Mexico has become better-defined today. The associated
deep convection has also become more organized and convection has
persisted over the low-level center since early this morning. In
addition, a banding feature has also developed over the western
portion of the circulation. Based on these trends, advisories have
been initiated for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. The ASCAT data
showed winds as high as 32 kt. However, these vectors were at the
very edge of the data swath, and may be unreliable. The initial
intensity of 30 kt is therefore based off the latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The forecast for the depression is not straightforward and there is
a larger than normal amount of uncertainty for both the future track
and intensity of the cyclone. The global models generally do not
favor much strengthening beyond 24 h and some of the guidance,
including the GFS and HWRF indicate weakening. On the other hand,
the SHIPS guidance suggests gradual strengthening and indicate the
cyclone could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. The overall environment appears conducive for
the depression to intensify over the next several days, with very
warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and plenty of atmospheric
moisture to work with. One negative influence that the global models
could be picking up on is an ongoing interaction with the larger
scale Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The NHC forecast, out
of respect for the skilled global and dynamical models, does not
show as a robust rate of strengthening as suggested by the SHIPS
guidance. However, some intensification is indicated throughout the
forecast period due to the aforementioned favorable environmental
factors.

The initial motion of the depression is 340/6 kt. This motion is
expected to continue through tonight as the depression is steered
by a mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The ridge is
forecast to weaken tomorrow and steering currents over the
depression are expected to collapse through the middle of the week.
The track guidance is highly divergent after 48 h, as the models
appear to steer the cyclone in varying directions based off the
interaction with the ITCZ in the midst of weak synoptic steering.
By the end of the forecast period, the models are generally in
better agreement on a slow northwesterly motion as the ridge
rebuilds to the northeast of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast
lies near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 12.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.5N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 13.7N 106.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 13.5N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 13.5N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 13.6N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 13.7N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 14.7N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-05 20:55


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 052053
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 105.4W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly developed Tropical
Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 12.8 North,
longitude 105.4 West. The depression is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight, followed by a slowing of forward speed.
The depression is expected to meander through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is possible over the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-05 20:52


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 052050
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020
2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 105.4W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 105.4W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.5N 105.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.7N 106.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.5N 106.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.6N 106.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 13.7N 106.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 14.7N 108.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 105.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>