Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-10-07 04:05


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 070403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.10.2020

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2020 0 19.2N 84.4W 973 61
1200UTC 07.10.2020 12 21.2N 87.4W 977 55
0000UTC 08.10.2020 24 22.8N 90.3W 971 59
1200UTC 08.10.2020 36 24.3N 92.2W 970 56
0000UTC 09.10.2020 48 26.1N 93.1W 958 68
1200UTC 09.10.2020 60 28.7N 92.8W 948 83
0000UTC 10.10.2020 72 32.1N 91.2W 980 36
1200UTC 10.10.2020 84 35.3N 88.8W 993 24
0000UTC 11.10.2020 96 37.3N 82.3W 999 19
1200UTC 11.10.2020 108 39.2N 78.7W 1001 28
0000UTC 12.10.2020 120 39.6N 77.4W 1000 33
1200UTC 12.10.2020 132 40.5N 75.5W 1003 29
0000UTC 13.10.2020 144 43.2N 73.1W 1005 28

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 106.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2020 0 14.4N 106.9W 1003 32
1200UTC 07.10.2020 12 13.9N 106.9W 1006 25
0000UTC 08.10.2020 24 13.6N 106.6W 1005 22
1200UTC 08.10.2020 36 13.6N 106.2W 1005 20
0000UTC 09.10.2020 48 13.2N 106.6W 1004 29
1200UTC 09.10.2020 60 14.1N 107.2W 1004 29
0000UTC 10.10.2020 72 15.2N 108.1W 1003 30
1200UTC 10.10.2020 84 16.7N 109.7W 1004 32
0000UTC 11.10.2020 96 18.3N 111.5W 1003 32
1200UTC 11.10.2020 108 19.4N 113.2W 998 40
0000UTC 12.10.2020 120 21.0N 113.2W 997 42
1200UTC 12.10.2020 132 21.7N 113.6W 1004 30
0000UTC 13.10.2020 144 21.8N 114.4W 1006 24

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 135.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2020 0 22.3N 135.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 07.10.2020 12 22.8N 137.0W 1006 32
0000UTC 08.10.2020 24 23.4N 138.0W 1006 36
1200UTC 08.10.2020 36 23.2N 139.4W 1008 28
0000UTC 09.10.2020 48 22.8N 140.9W 1009 24
1200UTC 09.10.2020 60 22.8N 142.3W 1011 21
0000UTC 10.10.2020 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.6N 125.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2020 12 11.6N 125.0W 1007 29
0000UTC 08.10.2020 24 13.3N 124.9W 1006 28
1200UTC 08.10.2020 36 14.7N 124.8W 1007 25
0000UTC 09.10.2020 48 15.3N 125.0W 1006 26
1200UTC 09.10.2020 60 15.6N 126.4W 1006 29
0000UTC 10.10.2020 72 15.4N 127.7W 1006 28
1200UTC 10.10.2020 84 14.9N 129.3W 1007 28
0000UTC 11.10.2020 96 14.5N 131.7W 1006 32
1200UTC 11.10.2020 108 14.1N 134.6W 1005 33
0000UTC 12.10.2020 120 14.2N 136.9W 1004 34
1200UTC 12.10.2020 132 14.2N 139.0W 1003 34
0000UTC 13.10.2020 144 14.5N 140.4W 1002 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070403

>

2020-10-07 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 070403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.10.2020

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2020 19.2N 84.4W STRONG
12UTC 07.10.2020 21.2N 87.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2020 22.8N 90.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2020 24.3N 92.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2020 26.1N 93.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.10.2020 28.7N 92.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2020 32.1N 91.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.10.2020 35.3N 88.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.10.2020 37.3N 82.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2020 39.2N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2020 39.6N 77.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2020 40.5N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2020 43.2N 73.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 106.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2020 14.4N 106.9W WEAK
12UTC 07.10.2020 13.9N 106.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2020 13.6N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2020 13.6N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2020 13.2N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2020 14.1N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2020 15.2N 108.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2020 16.7N 109.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2020 18.3N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2020 19.4N 113.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2020 21.0N 113.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2020 21.7N 113.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2020 21.8N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 135.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2020 22.3N 135.9W WEAK
12UTC 07.10.2020 22.8N 137.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2020 23.4N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2020 23.2N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2020 22.8N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2020 22.8N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.6N 125.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2020 11.6N 125.0W WEAK
00UTC 08.10.2020 13.3N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2020 14.7N 124.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2020 15.3N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2020 15.6N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2020 15.4N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2020 14.9N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2020 14.5N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2020 14.1N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2020 14.2N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2020 14.2N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2020 14.5N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070403

>

2020-10-07 03:27


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 032
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 18E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 136.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 136.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.9N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.2N 137.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.3N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.3N 139.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.3N 140.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.3N 140.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 136.3W.
07OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1081 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19E (NORBERT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-07 02:48


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 070245
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020

Patchy shower activity continues nearly 250 n mi to the northeast
of Marie's center--way too far away and way too weak for the system
to still be classified as a tropical cyclone. Marie has therefore
become a remnant low, with maximum winds set at 30 kt since an
ASCAT-C pass around 1800 UTC did not register any winds of tropical
storm force. The remnant circulation is expected to gradually spin
down during the next few days due to cold waters, dry air, and
southwesterly shear of about 40 kt. The global models generally
show the remnant low hanging around for the next 3 days and then
opening up into a trough by day 4, and that is reflected in this
last NHC advisory.

Marie continues moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/7 kt.
A fairly weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north should keep
Marie on a west-northwestward heading for the next 24 hours,
followed by a westward motion with a gradual decrease in speed from
36 to 72 hours. Most of the track models seem to pull the remnant
low too far to the north during the next day or so, and the NHC
track forecast is therefore near the southern side of the guidance
envelope, between HCCA and the previous interpolated official
forecast.

This is the last advisory on Marie. For additional information on
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 22.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/0000Z 23.2N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0000Z 23.3N 139.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/1200Z 23.3N 140.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-10-07 02:47


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 070245
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020

...MARIE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 136.2W
ABOUT 1675 MI...2695 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie
was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 136.2 West. Marie
is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph, and this general
motion should continue through Wednesday afternoon. A turn toward
the west with a decrease in forward speed should begin late
Wednesday and continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the
next several days, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate on
Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-10-07 02:46


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 070244
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 136.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 136.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 136.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.2N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.3N 139.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.3N 140.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 136.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-10-06 21:40


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 22.2N 135.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 135.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.8N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.2N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.4N 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.4N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.4N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 135.7W.
06OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1119
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19E (NORBERT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-06 20:39


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 062036
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Marie's center remains exposed, with limited shower activity
displaced more than 110 n mi northeast of the center. Consequently,
the system is poised to become a remnant low tonight if organized
convection doesn't redevelop near the center of circulation. The
initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, and is in best agreement
with a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and in
deference to this morning's scatterometer data which indicated
numerous 40-kt winds. Marie should continue to gradually spin
down during the 36 hours while moving west-northwestward over 24C
sea surface temperatures and through an extremely inhibiting
surrounding environment. Through the remaining portion of the
period, the post-tropical remnant low should turn westward within
the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure
Friday. Only a small along-track adjustment was made to the NHC
forecast in order to agree more with the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-10-06 20:37


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 062035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 135.6W
ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 135.6 West. Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low
tonight, and a trough of low pressure in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

2020-10-06 20:37


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 062035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 135.6W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 135.6W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 135.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 135.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2020-10-06 14:58


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 030
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 21.9N 134.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 134.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.5N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.9N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.2N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.2N 138.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.2N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 135.3W.
06OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1142
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19E (NORBERT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-06 14:45


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 061443
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Marie continues to gradually spin down this morning, and the
impressive burst of convection that developed near the surface
center last night, now consists of a shrinking cloud mass with
significantly warming cloud tops. Assuming some weakening since
the last night's METOP-A and B scatterometer passes indicating
peak winds of 40 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt
which is also supported by a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB.

Marie is moving over cool oceanic sea surface temperatures and
through a high statically stable air mass. The persistent, harsh
vertical shear environment has displaced what remains of the
cyclone's associated deep convection well to the northeast of the
center. The Statistical-dynamical intensity guidance and the
large-scale models are in general agreement with Marie degenerating
into a trough of low pressure in 3 days, and the NHC intensity
forecast follows suit.

The initial motion estimate is estimated to be west-northwestward,
or 295/8 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous
forecast track or reasoning. The cyclone should continue moving
toward the west-northwest through Wednesday evening. Through the
remaining portion of the period, the post-tropical remnant low
should continue to gradually spin down while moving westward within
the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure
by Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.1N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z 23.2N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/0000Z 23.2N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-10-06 14:44


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 061443
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...MARIE ON LIFE SUPPORT...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 135.1W
ABOUT 1605 MI...2585 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 135.1 West. Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low by tonight, and
a trough of low pressure in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

2020-10-06 14:44


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 061442
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 135.1W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 135.1W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 134.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.2N 138.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 135.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2020-10-06 09:03


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 029
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 133.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 133.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.2N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.7N 136.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.0N 137.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.2N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.1N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.2N 140.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 134.4W.
06OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1118
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19E (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-06 08:54


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 060851
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
1100 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020

A 6/0630Z ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass indicated that Marie has
refused to weaken despite the deep convection being severely sheared
to the northeast of the low-level center. A solid area of 40-kt was
present northwest through northeast of the center, with a couple of
45-kt vectors present. However, the 45-kt vectors look like they
could have been rain enhanced, so the initial intensity remains at
40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. There are no significant
changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Marie is
expected to move slowly west-northwestward along the southern
periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours or so, during
which time the cyclone will gradually spin down and become more
vertically shallow. Thereafter, and continuing until dissipation
occurs, a more westward motion is anticipated when the shallow
system will be steered by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The
new NHC forecast track is similar to but a tad north of the
previous advisory track, and lies near the middle of the tightly
packed consensus aids.

Although Marie has managed to survive some horrendous southwesterly
vertical wind of at least 30 kt, the cyclone is not long for this
world due to the shear increasing further while the cyclone moves
over sub-25 deg C sea-surface temperatures for the next few days.
These very unfavorable environmental conditions should result in all
convection being stripped away by late Tuesday morning, causing
Marie to degenerate into a 35-kt post-tropical cyclone. Further
weakening is anticipated, with Marie becoming a remnant low by
Tuesday night and dissipating by late Friday or Saturday over the
far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 21.7N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.2N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 07/0600Z 22.7N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 23.0N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z 23.2N 140.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-06 08:52


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 060851
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
1100 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020

...TENACIOUS MARIE REFUSES TO WEAKEN...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 134.3W
ABOUT 1560 MI...2510 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 134.3 West. Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday
or early Thursday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening
is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Marie is forecast to
become a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-10-06 08:52


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 060851
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 134.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 134.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 133.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 135.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.7N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.0N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 140.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 134.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2020-10-06 02:58


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 21.2N 133.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 133.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.9N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.5N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.9N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.1N 138.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.0N 139.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.9N 140.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 133.6W.
06OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1097
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19E (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-06 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 060233
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020

Marie is making one last grasp at holding on to tropical cyclone
status. Convection has both deepened and moved closer to the center
of the cyclone since the last advisory. Although this convection is
still displaced well to the north of Marie's center, it appears to
be sufficient to maintain advisories for the moment. The initial
intensity of 40 kt is based on earlier ASCAT data, assuming gradual
weakening since then. This assessment may be generous, but we will
likely get more scatterometer data before the next advisory.

Despite its recent marginal convective resurgence, Marie is still
moving over cold SSTs and through a hostile environment. It is
therefore forecast to become a remnant low within 12 h. The
aforementioned ASCAT data showed Marie was still producing a wide
area of 35 kt or greater winds, and it will take a little while for
the large circulation to spin down. Most of the models indicate that
Marie will degenerate into a trough of low pressure in about 4 days,
and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 21.4N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 21.9N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 23.1N 138.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1200Z 23.0N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z 22.9N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-10-06 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 060232
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020

...MARIE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 133.5W
ABOUT 1510 MI...2430 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 133.5 West. Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday
or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual
weakening is anticipated. Marie is forecast to become a remnant low
on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-10-06 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 060232
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 133.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 133.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 133.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.9N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.1N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.9N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 133.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-10-05 21:42


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 027
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 21.2N 132.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 132.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.8N 133.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.5N 135.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.0N 136.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.4N 137.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.3N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.1N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 132.8W.
05OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1064
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-05 20:48


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 052046
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Deep convection associated with Maria has all but dissipated and
what is left of it has been located over 120 n mi from the exposed
low-level center of the cyclone since around 1400 UTC this morning.
A recent ASCAT overpass shows the maximum winds have decreased to
43 kt as of 1800 UTC, and assuming weakening has continued since
that time, 40 kt will be the initial advisory intensity.

There are no reasons to believe that the deep convection will
redevelop near the center of Marie, as the cyclone is forecast to
remain in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, SSTs
cooler than 25 degrees C, and a surrounding dry and stable airmass.
Therefore, Maria is expected to be declared a remnant low by
tonight. The remnant low should gradually spin down and open into a
trough by late this week.

Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a
mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west-southwest is
expected in a couple of days as low- mid-level ridging builds to the
northwest of what's left of the cyclone. The latest NHC track
forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the
various track consensus forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 21.4N 132.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-10-05 20:45


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 052043
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...MARIE NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 132.7W
ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 132.7 West. Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is anticipated
during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the
west-southwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected, and Marie is forecast to degenerate
into a remnant low by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-05 20:43


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 052042
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 132.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 132.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 132.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 132.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-10-05 15:11


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TTROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 20.9N 131.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 131.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.5N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.1N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.7N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.1N 137.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.3N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.3N 138.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.9N 140.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 132.0W.
05OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1045
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-05 14:53


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 051450
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
500 AM HST Mon Oct 05 2020

The remains of the deep convection associated with Marie continues
to get further displaced from the exposed low-level center due
strong upper-level westerly winds, with the gap now over 100 n mi
between those two features. The various satellite intensity
estimates suggest that the current intensity may only be 45 kt.
However, due to fair number of 55-kt wind vectors on the ASCAT
overpass early this morning, the intensity is conservatively being
lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. Marie is expected to weaken over
the next few days in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind
shear, over SSTs cooler that 25 degrees C, surrounded by a dry and
stable airmass. With the convection now displaced so far from the
center, and no regeneration of convection near the center
anticipated, Marie is now forecast to become a remnant low by
Tuesday night. This could happen even sooner if the current trend
continues.

Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a
mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west is expected in a
couple of days as the cyclone becomes a more shallow system. The
latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one,
and is near the various track consensus forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 21.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.7N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z 23.1N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0000Z 23.3N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z 22.9N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-10-05 14:51


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 051449
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
500 AM HST Mon Oct 05 2020

...MARIE CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 131.9W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 131.9 West. Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is anticipated
during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected, and Marie is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-05 14:51


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 051449
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 131.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 131.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 131.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.7N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.1N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.3N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.9N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 131.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-10-05 10:03


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 130.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 130.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.2N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.8N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.4N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.9N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.2N 137.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.2N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.0N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 131.2W.
05OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1027
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-05 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 050832
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Satellite images show the exposed low-level circulation well to the
southwest of any remaining deep convection. ASCAT data, however,
came in at 50-55 kt just before 06Z, which is higher than the
satellite presentation alone would suggest. The initial wind speed
is set to 55 kt on the basis of that data. Marie should weaken
during the next few days due to cold waters and strong shear.
Models are in very good agreement on a steady weakening, and little
change was made to the previous forecast. Remnant low status is
expected by 48 hours, and could even happen sooner based on current
trends.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt this morning.
A ridge to the north should steer Marie to the northwest or
west-northwest for the next couple of days, then the tropical
cyclone is likely to turn westward as it becomes a more shallow
feature. Model guidance has generally been adjusting to this
scenario, with a mid-latitude trough no longer expected to exert
much influence. The new forecast is shifted southward from 48
hours and beyond, near but a little slower than the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 20.8N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 22.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 22.9N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z 23.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-05 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 050832
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
500 PM HST Sun Oct 04 2020

...MARIE WEAKENS AND IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 130.1W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 130.1 West. Marie is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with a
slight decrease in forward speed by the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is expected. Marie is forecast to
become a tropical depression or remnant low by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-10-05 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 050830
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...MARIE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 131.1W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 131.1 West. Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is anticipated
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Marie is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area
by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-10-05 08:31


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 050830
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 131.1W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 131.1W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 135.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 131.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

2020-10-05 03:23


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 18E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 20.4N 129.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 129.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.1N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.7N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.4N 134.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.9N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.3N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.6N 137.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.7N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.5N 141.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 130.3W.
05OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1003
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-05 02:38


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 050236
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
500 PM HST Sun Oct 04 2020

Marie continues to quickly weaken, and satellite classifications
from all agencies indicate that it is now a tropical storm. A blend
of those estimates is the basis for the 55 kt initial intensity.
Marie is still producing deep convection, mainly to its northeast,
but the overall convective pattern is ragged and less organized than
it was just 6 hours ago.

Basically no change was made to the NHC track or intensity
forecasts. Marie should continue moving generally northwestward for
the next several days, and could slow and turn westward once it
becomes a shallow remnant low in a few days. Marie remains embedded
in a hostile environment, so continued weakening is inevitable.
Most dynamical models suggest it will be a remnant low within 60 h,
and based on current trends in Marie's organization, that could be
generous. There is disagreement among the models regarding how fast
the cyclone will move westward during the middle to late portion of
the week, but they all agree it will be a weak remnant low by that
time. The NHC track, intensity, and radii forecasts are heavily
based on the latest multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 21.7N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 22.4N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 22.9N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 23.3N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z 23.6N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z 23.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z 23.5N 141.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-10-05 02:37


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 050235
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
500 PM HST Sun Oct 04 2020

...MARIE WEAKENS AND IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 130.1W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 130.1 West. Marie is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is
expected to continue for the next few days, with a slight decrease
in forward speed by the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is expected. Marie is forecast to
become a tropical depression or remnant low by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

2020-10-05 02:37


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 050235
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 130.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 129.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 132.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.4N 134.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 135.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.3N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.6N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.7N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2020-10-04 21:01


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 20.1N 129.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 129.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.7N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.4N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.1N 133.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.7N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.3N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.7N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.0N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.0N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 129.5W.
04OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 992 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-04 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 042032
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020

The center of Marie is now totally exposed, well to the south and
southwest of a few remaining areas of deep convection. While Marie's
convective pattern resembles a low-end tropical storm, it takes time
for systems of Marie's magnitude to spin down, and the initial
intensity of 65 kt is based on a blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak
numbers from TAFB. A pair of ASCAT passes near 18Z explicitly showed
winds near 55 kt, but it likely under sampled the peak winds of the
hurricane's tight circulation. The ASCAT also showed that Marie's
tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii have not yet contracted
very much.

The position of Marie was adjusted a little to the west, and the
track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but is
otherwise very similar to the previous advisory for the first 72 h.
After that time, the most recent guidance suggests that Marie, then
expected to be a remnant low, could turn due west, or even south of
due west. This is a pretty big departure from previous solutions,
so the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but not
nearly as much as the model consensus. It should be noted that
regardless of position, Marie is forecast to be a weak remnant low
at 96 and 120 h.

High shear, cool SSTs, and stable surrounding air should cause Marie
to continue to quickly weaken for the next few days. Simulated
satellite imagery suggests that the system could produce
intermittent convection for up to 60 more hours. It isn't clear how
well organized it will be, and given recent trends it is possible
Marie will become a remnant low much sooner than currently forecast.
The system will likely dissipate sometime near or just after 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 20.3N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-10-04 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 042031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...MARIE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 129.5W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 129.5 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days, with a slight decrease
in forward speed by the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated. Marie is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today and could become a tropical
depression or remnant low by Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

2020-10-04 20:32


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 042031
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 129.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 129.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 129.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 129.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2020-10-04 15:09


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 20.1N 128.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 128.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.7N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.3N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.0N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.7N 133.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.4N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.0N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.8N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 25.3N 137.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 128.7W.
04OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 965 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-04 14:47


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 041445
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Conventional satellite imagery reveals an increasingly apparent
asymmetric/vertical tilt due to persistent west-southwesterly
shear. The surface center is beginning to become exposed and is
now near the western edge of the deep convective mass. The initial
intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is based on a
compromise of the available subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates. Weakening should continue rather quickly
through the forecast period while the shear magnitude increases
with time and the cyclone traverses cooler oceanic surface
temperatures. Marie should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant
low in 3 days, or less, and this is in agreement with the majority
of the global/regional and statistical guidance. The intensity
forecast is near the IVCN intensity consensus and above the ECMWF
and GFS Decay SHIPS which actually show dissipation in less than 4
days.

Maria's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/6
kt, within the mid-tropospheric steering flow provided by a
subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone. Marie
should continue moving in either a west-northwestward or
northwestward motion through the remainder of forecast period with
some reduction in forward speed, day 3 and beyond. The NHC
forecast track has been adjusted a little bit south of the previous
advisory after the 24 hour period in order to be closer to the
various multi-model consensus aids and to conform more with a motion
typical of a shallower, vertically limited system moving through the
trade wind flow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 20.3N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.7N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 22.7N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 24.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 24.8N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z 25.3N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-10-04 14:46


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 041444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...MARIE WEAKENS SOME MORE OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 128.6W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1950 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is
forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward
during the next several days with some reduction in forward speed
commencing Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Marie should quickly weaken to a tropical storm
by Monday night, and further weaken to a depression by Wednesday
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-10-04 14:46


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 041444
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 128.6W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 128.6W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 129.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.7N 133.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 135.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 24.8N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.3N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 128.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2020-10-04 09:17


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 127.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 127.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.5N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.1N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.7N 131.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.4N 133.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.2N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 24.0N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.9N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.0N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 128.3W.
04OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 971 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-04 08:37


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 040834
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020

The satellite presentation of Marie has continued to degrade
overnight with a less symmetric cloud pattern, no signs of an eye,
and perhaps some indication that the mid-level circulation is
beginning to decouple from the low-level center. The initial
intensity is reduced to 90 kt, consistent with the latest estimates
from TAFB/SAB. Further rapid weakening is expected today as shear
is forecast to increase while the hurricane moves over cooler
waters. Marie should lose its deep convection around day 4 due to
more cold water and higher shear, so remnant low status is forecast
then. The new intensity forecast is similar to the last one, near
or below the model consensus.

The hurricane is still headed northwestward near 7 kt. The eastern
Pacific subtropical ridge to the north should keep Marie moving
generally west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same
forward speed during the next few days. Near the end of the forecast
period, Marie could turn more poleward due to an approaching
mid-latitude trough. The model guidance is fairly divergent at long
range, however, with some of the guidance showing the tropical
cyclone being too shallow to feel the trough and continuing a
northwest track, with others recurving ahead of the trough. The new
forecast shows a north-northwest turn as a compromise, just a little
west of the previous NHC prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 20.1N 128.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 21.7N 131.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 22.4N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 23.2N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 24.9N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 26.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-04 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 040833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...MARIE CONTINUES WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 128.1W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 128.1 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The hurricane is
forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward
with little change in forward speed for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Marie should quickly weaken to a tropical storm
by early Monday, with further weakening likely through the middle
of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-10-04 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 040832
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.1W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.1W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 127.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 130.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 131.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.4N 133.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.2N 134.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.9N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 128.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-10-04 03:26


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 127.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 127.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.2N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.9N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.6N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.3N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.9N 133.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.7N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.7N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.0N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 128.0W.
04OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 987 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-10-04 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 040233
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Marie crossed the 26 degree SST isotherm earlier this evening and
the cold waters and accompanying dry,stable air are having a big
impact on the storm. Recent microwave imagery shows that the
hurricane no longer has an closed eyewall in the southern portion of
its inner core. Furthermore, cloud top temperatures have warmed and
the hurricane's eye is barely discernible. A blend of Final-T and CI
Dvorak numbers from TAFB is the primary basis for the initial
intensity of 100 kt.

Continued rapid weakening is anticipated for the next 36 to 48 h as
Marie encounters very hostile environmental conditions. After that
time, continued weakening is likely and most of the dynamical
models indicate that the cyclone will lose its convection by around
day 5, if not a little sooner.

The hurricane is moving northwestward near 7 kt. A ridge extending
westward from southwestern U.S. should keep Marie moving generally
west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same forward speed
for the next several days. Near the end of the forecast period,
Marie will likely turn northward ahead of a deep layer trough
approaching from the northwest. The spread in the track guidance is
quite low, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high,
particularly since almost no change was made to the previous
advisory forecast. Both the track and intensity forecasts are based
on the multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.5N 127.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 20.2N 128.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.6N 131.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 22.3N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 22.9N 133.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 23.7N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 24.7N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 26.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-10-04 02:33


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 040231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...MARIE RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 127.9W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1900 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 127.9 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The hurricane is
forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward
with little change in forward speed for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Marie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is anticipated. Marie is
forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday night or early Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

2020-10-04 02:32


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 040230
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 127.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 127.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 127.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 128.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 130.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.6N 131.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 132.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 133.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.7N 135.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.7N 136.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 127.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2020-10-03 21:34


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 127.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 127.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.8N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.6N 129.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.3N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.9N 131.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.5N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.0N 134.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.0N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.5N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 127.4W.
03OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 992 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-10-03 20:48


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 032046
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Marie is finally beginning to show signs of weakening. Recent
GOES-17 infrared satellite imagery indicates cloud tops are warming
in the western eyewall, and water vapor imagery shows drier air
impinging on the western periphery of the storm. Despite this,
there is still deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70
degrees Celsius persisting in the eastern eyewall. The initial
intensity is slightly lowered to 110 kt with this advisory based on
a blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications and a 16 UTC SATCON
estimate of 114 kt.

Marie is likely beginning to experience increased deep-layer
southwesterly wind shear as it moves toward the 26 degree Celsius
sea surface temperature isotherm. With environmental conditions
becoming increasingly hostile, Marie is expected to steadily, and
perhaps rapidly, weaken over the next several days. Marie is
forecast to weaken into a tropical storm within 36 hours, as the
storm moves over cooler waters and into an environment with 30 kt of
vertical wind shear. Steady weakening should continue through early
next week, and the system is expected to become a tropical
depression by Wednesday and a remnant low on Thursday. Now that the
system is finally weakening, the latest NHC intensity forecast
reflects a more rapid downward trend supported by the model
consensus aids.

Marie's initial motion is 325/8 kt, slightly more northwestward
than the previous advisory. Marie should continue moving
northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days along
the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the
southwestern United States. The latest model guidance remains
tightly clustered during the first 2-3 days of the forecast. Then,
the bulk of the guidance indicates Marie will slow down and turn
more northward late next week ahead of a deep-layer trough to the
north of the storm. Given this recurving scenario, there is more
significant spread in the guidance at day 4 and beyond, with the
GFS still farther to the right than most other models. Overall, the
official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly right of the
previous one in agreement with the TVCE/HCCA aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.1N 127.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.8N 128.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.6N 129.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 21.9N 131.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 25.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg

>

2020-10-03 20:46


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 032044
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...MARIE FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 127.3W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 127.3 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward or
west-northwestward motion with little change in forward speed is
expected to continue through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Marie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected during the next
several days, and Marie is forecast to become a tropical storm by
Sunday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg

>

2020-10-03 20:45


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 032043
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.3W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.3W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 127.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 128.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.6N 129.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.9N 131.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 127.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BERG

>

2020-10-03 15:00


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 126.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 126.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.1N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.0N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.6N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.2N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.9N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.5N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.5N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 127.0W.
03OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1018 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-03 14:41


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 031438
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Marie shows little signs of weakening this morning as its satellite
presentation remains impressive. A closed ring of eyewall
convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -65 degrees C
surrounds a well-defined 20 nm eye. The initial intensity is
maintained at 115 kt based on a T6.0 Dvorak classification from
SAB, which is supported by the latest ADT estimates.

Marie is approaching an environment of increasing deep-layer
southwesterly shear and SSTs below 26 degrees Celsius, which should
induce weakening beginning later today that will continue through
early next week. The latest SHIPS guidance indicates the vertical
wind shear will strengthen to 30 kt by Mon and continue increasing
through the end of the 5-day forecast period. Therefore, Marie is
forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Monday and a
tropical depression by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity
forecast is held a bit higher than the model consensus through the
first 12-24 hours of the forecast, since Marie has yet to show
signs of weakening. As the environmental conditions become
increasingly hostile, the official forecast shows more rapid
weakening in line with the consensus intensity guidance. By day 5,
simulated satellite imagery suggests the system will be a remnant
low devoid of deep convection.

Marie's initial motion is 310/8 kt, and the system is expected to
generally continue moving northwestward for the next several days
along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. A deep-layer
trough is expected to dig north of Marie during the middle of
next week, which should begin turning the system more northward
toward the end of the 5-day forecast period. A larger spread in the
guidance is noted at days 4-5, as it remains somewhat unclear how
much the trough will influence the weakening system based on timing
differences between the GFS and ECMWF models. Overall, the NHC
track forecast remains fairly close to the previous one, with
slight changes based on the consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.4N 126.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.1N 127.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 21.2N 131.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 21.9N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg

>

2020-10-03 14:37


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 031435
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...POWERFUL MARIE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 126.9W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 126.9 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
with little change in speed is expected to continue through early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening
later today, and a more rapid weakening trend is forecast into
early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg


>

2020-10-03 14:36


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 031434
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 126.9W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 270SW 345NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 126.9W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 126.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 127.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.2N 131.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 95NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.9N 132.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 126.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BERG



>

2020-10-03 09:59


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 126.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 126.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.6N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.5N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.3N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.9N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.5N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.0N 133.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.0N 135.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.5N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 126.5W.
03OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1028 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-03 08:40


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 030838
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Marie continues to be a powerful and dangerous hurricane. Cloud tops
surrounding the eye have cooled and the center is now surrounded by
a ring of convection with tops colder than -70 degrees C. The latest
Dvorak intensity estimate ranges have narrowed considerably to
115-122 kt, so there is higher confidence in the cyclone's strength.
The initial advisory intensity is being kept at 115 kt and is in
agreement with both of the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB.

The environment surrounding Marie will soon become rather hostile
and the hurricane will likely not maintain this intensity for much
longer. By later today, increasing southwesterly winds aloft should
begin to degrade the symmetry of the cyclone. Later tonight, the
cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm. And by
Monday, Marie is expected be in an environment characterized by
vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt, low- to mid-level relative
humidity values of less than 40 percent, and over waters cooler than
25 degrees C. These increasingly negative factors are expected to
cause Marie to begin weakening later today, with rapid weakening
possible Sunday into Monday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the various consensus intensity guidance, and
indicates that Marie should weaken to a tropical storm on Sunday
night and a tropical depression early next week. By the end of the
forecast period, the system is expected to become a post tropical
cyclone devoid of deep convection.

Marie continues to move northwestward and is forecast to continue to
do so through the remainder of the weekend as it moves along the
southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge is forecast to
expand westward early next week, which should force the cyclone to
turn to the west-northwest. Toward the end of the 5-day forecast
period, a large deep-layer trough north of Marie should cause it to
begin a turn to the right. The NHC track forecast is little changed
from the previous one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus
HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 17.9N 126.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.3N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 21.5N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.0N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 23.0N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 24.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-10-03 08:39


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 030837
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...POWERFUL MARIE CONTINUES CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 126.4W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 126.4 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through the weekend. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is forecast to begin
weakening later today, and this weakening trend should continue
into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-10-03 08:38


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 030837
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 126.4W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 126.4W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 129.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 131.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 133.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 135.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 126.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-10-03 04:08


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.10.2020

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 86.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL252020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2020 0 19.0N 86.0W 1003 30
1200UTC 03.10.2020 12 19.5N 86.8W 1000 32
0000UTC 04.10.2020 24 20.8N 86.9W 1000 36
1200UTC 04.10.2020 36 21.9N 87.2W 1003 32
0000UTC 05.10.2020 48 22.0N 86.7W 1003 31
1200UTC 05.10.2020 60 22.0N 87.0W 1004 31
0000UTC 06.10.2020 72 21.6N 87.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 06.10.2020 84 21.2N 90.4W 1002 34
0000UTC 07.10.2020 96 20.6N 91.2W 998 37
1200UTC 07.10.2020 108 20.8N 91.6W 994 37
0000UTC 08.10.2020 120 21.4N 92.3W 990 43
1200UTC 08.10.2020 132 21.9N 93.3W 983 48
0000UTC 09.10.2020 144 22.1N 94.4W 959 71

HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 125.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2020 0 17.2N 125.5W 949 78
1200UTC 03.10.2020 12 18.1N 126.6W 963 67
0000UTC 04.10.2020 24 19.2N 127.3W 965 65
1200UTC 04.10.2020 36 20.0N 128.2W 968 64
0000UTC 05.10.2020 48 20.8N 129.1W 973 60
1200UTC 05.10.2020 60 21.4N 130.3W 980 57
0000UTC 06.10.2020 72 22.2N 131.1W 988 51
1200UTC 06.10.2020 84 23.1N 132.5W 996 43
0000UTC 07.10.2020 96 23.3N 133.9W 1001 35
1200UTC 07.10.2020 108 23.6N 135.2W 1004 28
0000UTC 08.10.2020 120 23.9N 135.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 08.10.2020 132 24.7N 136.1W 1008 24
0000UTC 09.10.2020 144 27.2N 135.4W 1009 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030405

>

2020-10-03 04:08


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 030405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.10.2020

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 86.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL252020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.10.2020 19.0N 86.0W WEAK
12UTC 03.10.2020 19.5N 86.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2020 20.8N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2020 21.9N 87.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2020 22.0N 86.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2020 22.0N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2020 21.6N 87.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2020 21.2N 90.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2020 20.6N 91.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2020 20.8N 91.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2020 21.4N 92.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2020 21.9N 93.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2020 22.1N 94.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 125.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.10.2020 17.2N 125.5W INTENSE
12UTC 03.10.2020 18.1N 126.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2020 19.2N 127.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2020 20.0N 128.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2020 20.8N 129.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2020 21.4N 130.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2020 22.2N 131.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2020 23.1N 132.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2020 23.3N 133.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2020 23.6N 135.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2020 23.9N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2020 24.7N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2020 27.2N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030405

>

2020-10-03 03:03


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 125.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 125.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.3N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.2N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.0N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.6N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.1N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.6N 132.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.5N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.0N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 125.9W.
03OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1033 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-10-03 02:41


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 030238
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Although Marie still has an impressive and very symetric appearance,
cloud tops associated with the huricane have gradually warmed since
this afternoon and its eye became less well-defined for a brief
period earlier this evening. The cause of this recent trend is not
immediately clear since Marie is still located within a favorable
low-shear, high SST environment, and two microwave passses near 00Z
(SSMIS and SSMI) did not show any sign of an eyewall replacement
cycle. Whatever the reason, it has caused intensity estimates to
decrease a little since the last advisory, but not enough to justify
lowering the intensity at this time. The intial intensity therefore
remains 115 kt for this advisory. With a range of estimates from
90 kt to 127 kt, there is a lot of uncertainty in this assessment.

Although Marie is located in a favorable environment for now, that
won't last much longer. The hurricane is moving toward colder
waters and it should begin to experience a large increase in wind
shear within the next day or so. The guidance unsurprisingly
forecasts that weakening will occur, possibly at a very rapid rate.
The NHC forecast is on the high side of the intensity guidance, but
still shows Marie becoming a tropical storm within 60 h and a
depression by the end of the 5 day period. No changes of note were
made to the offficial intensity forecast.

Marie has turned northwestward, and should continue on that general
heading for most of the weekend as it moves along the southwest
periphary of a mid-level ridge. A slight expansion of the ridge
could steer Marie more west-northwestward for a day or two after
that. Around day 5, a large deep-layer trough should cause the
cyclone to turn nearly northward. While there is considerable
spread in the track guidance, limiting confidence in the specifics
of the track forecast, every global model forecasts that general
evolution. The NHC track forecast is very close to the model
consensus and the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 17.5N 125.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.3N 126.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 19.2N 127.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 24.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-10-03 02:38


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 030237
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020

...POWERFUL MARIE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 125.7W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 125.7 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through most of the weekend. A turn toward the
west-northwest is possible by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible through tonight, followed by weakening beginning on
Saturday. This weakening trend will continue into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

2020-10-03 02:37


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 030236
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 125.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 126.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.2N 127.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 134.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.0N 136.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 125.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2020-10-02 21:04


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 124.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 124.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.6N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.6N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.5N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.1N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.6N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.2N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.0N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.5N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 125.1W.
02OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1048 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-10-02 20:44


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 022041
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Marie remains a powerful hurricane this afternoon. A 1530 UTC SSMIS
91 GHz microwave image showed a well-defined, closed eyewall with a
20 nm eye, which is still evident in recent GOES-17 visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt
based on T6.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, which are
consistent with recent ADT and earlier SATCON estimates. The 34-kt
radii are expanded slightly with this package based on recent ASCAT
data.

Marie is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 10 kt, around
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the
southwestern United States. A break in the ridge should allow Marie
to turn northwestward within the next 24 hours and maintain that
motion over the next several days. By day 5, an approaching
upper-level trough moving across the eastern Pacific Ocean should
turn Marie more toward the north-northwest. There is still more
noticeable spread in the guidance at days 4 and 5, likely related
to differences in the amplitude of the upper-level trough. It is
worth noting that the GFS depicts a deeper upper trough, and thus a
more drastic northerly turn, than the rest of the global models.
Overall, the NHC forecast was again slowed down a bit and shifted
slightly to the right to align better with the latest TVCE
multi-model consensus and HCCA aids.

Marie is expected to remain in a low-shear environment with sea
surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius for the next 18-24
hours. Although slight additional strengthening cannot be ruled
out, the storm is running out of time before environmental
conditions become more hostile. After 24 hours, increasing
deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters should support a
steady weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period.
Marie is expected to fall below hurricane strength by 60 hours and
become a tropical depression by day 5. The latest NHC intensity
forecast shows a slightly faster weakening trend and remains very
close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA aid.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 16.9N 125.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 17.6N 126.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 20.6N 130.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg

>

2020-10-02 20:41


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 022039
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MARIE HOLDING STEADY IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 125.0W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 125.0 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward
the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible through tonight, followed by weakening beginning on
Saturday. This weakening trend will continue into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg


>

2020-10-02 20:40


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 022039
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.6N 126.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 129.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 130.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 125.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BERG



>

2020-10-02 15:20


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 123.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 123.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.2N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.3N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.3N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.0N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.6N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.0N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.0N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 124.4W.
02OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1049 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-02 14:49


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 021447
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Marie's structure has not changed significantly since the previous
advisory. A recent AMSR microwave image showed that the hurricane
continues to have a closed eyewall that is a little thin on the
southeast side, but there are no clear indications that an eyewall
replacement is occuring. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB
diverged from 6 hours ago, with TAFB's going up to T6.5 and SAB's
falling to T5.5. In addition, final-T numbers from the objective
ADT scheme have decreased since six hours ago. Because of the
estimate discrepancies, the initial intensity is being held at 115
kt.

Marie is moving west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 12 kt, just a
little to the left of and slower than the previous motion estimate.
A large mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United
States continues to be the main driver of Marie's motion, but the
hurricane should begin to reach a break in the ridge and turn toward
the northwest in the next 24 hours. After that time, a general
motion toward the northwest or west-northwest should continue
through the end of the forecast period. The spread in the guidance
does increase a bit by days 4 and 5, which appears to be related to
the depth of the cyclone and how it interacts with the steering
flow. Overall, though, the guidance envelope has not shifted, and
the NHC forecast was only slowed down a bit to be more in line with
the latest TVCE multi-model consensus and HCCA aid.

Marie should remain in a low-shear environment and over waters
warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for the next 24 hours, during which
time some additional strengthening is possible. Any
intensification could be thwarted by an eyewall replacement,
but as stated above, that does not appear to be occuring at this
time. Increasing deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters
should induce a definitive weakening trend after 24 hours, with
Marie falling below hurricane strength by day 3, and then becoming
a tropical depression by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast has
been adjusted downward a bit during the weakening phase and lies
near or just above the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 16.5N 124.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 18.3N 127.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 20.0N 129.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 20.6N 130.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 21.0N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg/Reinhart

>

2020-10-02 14:48


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 021447
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MARIE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 124.3W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 124.3 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward
the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible later today
or tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and
continue into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Reinhart


>

2020-10-02 14:48


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 021447
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 124.3W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 210SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 124.3W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 127.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 129.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 130.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 132.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 137.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 124.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/REINHART



>

2020-10-02 09:14


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 122.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 122.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.9N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.9N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.0N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.9N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.6N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.1N 131.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.0N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.5N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 123.4W.
02OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1053 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-02 08:46


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 020844
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Marie has strengthened further since the last advisory, with
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB now at 115 kt and
the CIMSS ADT estimate now near 130 kt. However, during the past
couple of hours, satellite imagery shows that the eye has become
less well defined. It is unclear at this time whether this is
because the hurricane is starting an eyewall replacement or whether
it has peaked in intensity. The initial intensity for this
advisory is increased to a possibly conservative 115 kt. Marie
currently has good to excellent cirrus outflow in all directions.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/13 kt as the
hurricane is being steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. The
system is expected to move toward the west-northwest or northwest
at a slower forward speed during the next several days as it
approaches the western periphery of the ridge and a broad
mid-latitude trough well off the California coast. The track
guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario through 72 h,
but there remains increasing spread after that time, which is likely
due to model differences in the vertical depth of Marie and how much
the trough influences its steering. The guidance shifted a little
to the north of the previous guidance through 72 h, so the new
forecast track is also nudged northward during that time. The new
track is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.

If Marie is not undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, conditions
appear favorable for additional strengthening during the next
12-18 h. After that, the system will be moving over decreasing
sea surface temperatures and entraining dryer air, which should
cause weakening. An faster weakening is expected after 36 h due to
increasing westerly shear. The new intensity forecast has minor
adjustments from the previous forecast, and through 72 h it lies
near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 16.2N 123.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 16.9N 124.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.9N 126.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 19.0N 127.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 19.9N 129.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 20.6N 130.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 21.1N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-02 08:45


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020843
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020

...MARIE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 123.2W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 123.2 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward
the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
expected today, with weakening forecast to begin on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-02 08:45


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 020843
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 124.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 126.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 127.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.9N 129.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.6N 130.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 131.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 123.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-10-02 04:01


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 020358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.10.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 83.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2020 0 16.6N 83.9W 1008 19
1200UTC 02.10.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 121.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2020 0 15.3N 121.7W 960 63
1200UTC 02.10.2020 12 16.1N 124.0W 958 68
0000UTC 03.10.2020 24 17.2N 125.9W 959 65
1200UTC 03.10.2020 36 18.4N 127.1W 965 67
0000UTC 04.10.2020 48 19.7N 128.2W 967 65
1200UTC 04.10.2020 60 20.6N 129.2W 973 64
0000UTC 05.10.2020 72 21.1N 130.6W 979 58
1200UTC 05.10.2020 84 21.4N 132.1W 991 46
0000UTC 06.10.2020 96 22.0N 133.8W 996 44
1200UTC 06.10.2020 108 22.4N 135.4W 1002 33
0000UTC 07.10.2020 120 23.0N 136.4W 1004 29
1200UTC 07.10.2020 132 24.1N 137.1W 1006 29
0000UTC 08.10.2020 144 24.5N 137.8W 1006 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 18.6N 86.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2020 24 18.6N 86.7W 1004 30
1200UTC 03.10.2020 36 19.3N 87.4W 1003 30
0000UTC 04.10.2020 48 19.8N 88.2W 1004 30
1200UTC 04.10.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.6N 105.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2020 72 13.5N 106.2W 1004 34
1200UTC 05.10.2020 84 15.0N 107.6W 1005 33
0000UTC 06.10.2020 96 15.6N 108.7W 1003 35
1200UTC 06.10.2020 108 15.9N 108.8W 1003 30
0000UTC 07.10.2020 120 15.9N 108.8W 1002 28
1200UTC 07.10.2020 132 15.9N 108.7W 1002 26
0000UTC 08.10.2020 144 16.1N 108.7W 999 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 36.0N 70.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2020 84 36.0N 70.3W 1013 38
0000UTC 06.10.2020 96 39.2N 59.7W 1013 31
1200UTC 06.10.2020 108 40.4N 52.7W 1009 43
0000UTC 07.10.2020 120 40.7N 44.8W 1010 36
1200UTC 07.10.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020358

>

2020-10-02 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 020358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.10.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 83.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2020 16.6N 83.9W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 121.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2020 15.3N 121.7W INTENSE
12UTC 02.10.2020 16.1N 124.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2020 17.2N 125.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2020 18.4N 127.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2020 19.7N 128.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2020 20.6N 129.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2020 21.1N 130.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2020 21.4N 132.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2020 22.0N 133.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2020 22.4N 135.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2020 23.0N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2020 24.1N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2020 24.5N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 18.6N 86.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.10.2020 18.6N 86.7W WEAK
12UTC 03.10.2020 19.3N 87.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2020 19.8N 88.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.6N 105.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.10.2020 13.5N 106.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.10.2020 15.0N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2020 15.6N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2020 15.9N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2020 15.9N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2020 15.9N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2020 16.1N 108.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 36.0N 70.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2020 36.0N 70.3W WEAK
00UTC 06.10.2020 39.2N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2020 40.4N 52.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2020 40.7N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020358

>

2020-10-02 03:28


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 121.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 121.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.3N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.3N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.4N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.4N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.2N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.8N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.0N 134.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.4N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 122.3W.
02OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-02 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 020234
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020

Marie is still strengthening this evening. Satellite images
indicate that the hurricane has a well-defined compact eye with a
ring of cold cloud tops surrounding that feature. The Dvorak
classifications at 0000Z were T5.5/102 kt from both TAFB and SAB,
but since the cyclone has continued to strengthen, the initial
intensity is increased to 110 kt. This value is below the latest
Dvorak ADT numbers that are currently around 6.2/120 kt. Marie has
strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt over the past 24 hours.

Satellite fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving fairly quickly
to the west-northwest on the south side of a mid-level ridge, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 285/13 kt. The system is
expected to move slower to the west-northwest or northwest during
the next several days as it nears the western periphery of the ridge
and moves toward a broad trough well off the California coast. The
models are in fair agreement in the short term, but there is a
notable amount of spread in the guidance in 4 to 5 days, likely due
to differences in the vertical depth of Marie and how much the
trough influences its steering. The NHC track forecast remains near
the consensus aids, and is largely an update of the previous one.

The major hurricane will likely continue to strengthen during the
next 12 to 24 hours while it remains in quite favorable conditions
of low vertical wind shear, a moist air mass, and over warm 28-29 C
SSTs. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles could
occur during that time, which might cause fluctuations in the
cyclone's strength. By Saturday, Marie is expected to level off in
intensity and then rapidly weaken when the hurricane crosses the
26-deg-C SST isotherm and moves into an environment of increasing
west-southwesterly shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast
remains above the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with
the bulk of the models beyond 36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.6N 122.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.3N 123.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.3N 125.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 19.4N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 20.2N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 20.8N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 22.0N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 23.4N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-02 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020

...MARIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 122.1W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 122.1 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward
the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Marie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during
the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-02 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 020233
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 122.1W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 122.1W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 123.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.3N 125.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.4N 128.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 130.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.8N 131.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 134.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 136.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2020-10-01 21:01


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 012200
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 120.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 120.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.8N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.7N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.8N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.8N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.7N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.3N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.4N 133.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.0N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 121.1W.
01OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1082 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-01 20:45


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 012043
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020

An eye has formed in visible and infrared satellite imagery since
the issuance of the previous advisory, and the surrounding
convection continues to have cold cloud tops (as cold as -83C). The
width of the coldest tops were a little thin on the southwest
side at 1800 UTC, and because of this, subjective and objective
intensity estimates were still 90 kt. Since that time, the eye has
become more distinct and the convection is becoming more symmetric
around the eye, and the initial intensity is therefore set at 95 kt.

Marie's initial position has been adjusted to the south just a bit
now that the center is more apparent with the eye formation. This
yields a current westward motion of 280/14 kt. The atmospheric
features responsible for steering Marie during the forecast period
will be a mid-tropospheric ridge centered over the southwestern
United States and a mid- to upper-level low located to the west
over the Pacific. The interplay between these features is likely
to cause some wiggles in Marie's future track, but for the most
part the hurricane will be moving west-northwestward or
northwestward through day 5. The spread in the guidance increases
toward the end of the forecast period, with the GFS turning more
northward and the ECMWF maintaining a west-northwestward motion.
The other deterministic models are in between these two
solutions, clustered very close to the various multi-model
consensus aids, and that is where the NHC forecast also lies for
this advisory.

The environment appears conducive for this phase of rapid
intensification to continue, at least for the next 24 hours.
Deep-layer shear is just about to decrease to 10 kt or less, and
Marie will remain over waters of high ocean heat content for the
next 24-36 hours. The intensity guidance decreased a bit on this
cycle, which seems odd given the ongoing intensification trend and
the favorable environmental conditions. The SHIPS model does still
show that the chance for rapid intensification to continue is 3 to
5 times higher than the climatological mean, and therefore the NHC
intensity forecast maintains continuity from the previous advisory,
showing a peak intensity of 120 kt. This forecast is above the
highest intensity models by about 10-15 kt. Weakening is still
anticipated, particularly after 48 hours, due to Marie moving over
cooler waters and being affected by increasing southwesterly shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 15.1N 120.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.8N 122.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.8N 126.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 19.7N 129.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 20.3N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 21.4N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-10-01 20:43


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 012042
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020

...MARIE STILL STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 120.9W
ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 120.9 West. Marie is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward the
west-northwest and then northwest and a gradually decreasing
forward speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or two. Weakening is forecast to begin by Friday night or
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-10-01 20:43


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 012041
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 120.9W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 120.9W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 120.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 122.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.8N 126.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 129.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 130.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.4N 133.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 136.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 120.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-10-01 15:27


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 119.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 119.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.9N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.8N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.8N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.8N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.6N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.4N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.7N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.8N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 120.0W.
01OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1062 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-01 14:40


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 011437
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020

Marie has continued to become better organized this morning. An
AMSR image from just after 09Z showed a closed mid-level eyewall,
and conventional satellite imagery shows an increasingly symmetric
cloud pattern with very cold cloud tops, colder than -80C, around
the center. The current intensity estimate is set at 90 kt in
agreement with Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB.
Marie is moving over SSTs warmer than 28 deg C and in a moist,
low-shear atmospheric environment. The SHIPS guidance still shows
a significant probability of rapid intensification through tonight,
so Marie is likely to become a major hurricane quite soon. The
official forecast is a little above the latest corrected model
consensus. In a couple of days, the hurricane should be crossing
the SST gradient and encountering cooler waters, so a weakening
trend is anticipated to be underway within 48 hours.

The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt.
For the next couple of days, Marie should continue to move along
the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge associated with
a high pressure system centered over California. A slight turn to
the right with some deceleration is expected during the forecast
period due to a weakness in the ridge near 130W longitude. By the
end of the period, Marie is likely to turn toward the northwest
while it moves through this weakness. The official track forecast
lies very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCE,
prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 15.2N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-01 14:38


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 011436
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020

...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 119.5W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 119.5 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion with decreasing forward speed is expected to continue for
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Marie is expected to become a major hurricane by
tonight or sooner.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

2020-10-01 14:38


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 011436
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 119.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

2020-10-01 09:10


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 117.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 117.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.2N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.0N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.9N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.0N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.0N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.8N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.1N 132.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 23.0N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 118.3W.
01OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1086 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-01 08:37


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 010835
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020

Recent microwave data and satellite images indicate that Marie has
become much better organized over the past several hours, with a
nearly completely closed eye noted in a 0451Z AMSU composite
microwave overpass. The initial intensity has been increased to 80
kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON.

Marie appears to have resumed its anticipated rapid intensification
(RI), and this RI should continue for the next day or so while the
hurricane remains in an environment of very low vertical wind shear
while over warm waters. After 48 h, the cyclone is forecast to begin
moving over progressively cooler waters, while encountering
increasing vertical wind shear and a drier, more stable atmospheric
environment. These factors should cause Marie to begin weakening by
Saturday. Rapid weakening could occur by late this weekend when the
cyclone is expected to be over waters with SSTs cooler than 26
degrees C while vertical wind shear becomes greater than 25 kt. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP corrected
consensus aid HCCA and the DSHP guidance.

The initial motion is 280/15 kt. Marie is forecast to continue
moving westward around a subtropical ridge to its north and
northeast for the next 12 to 24 hours. A gradual turn to the
west-northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected to
occur beginning later tonight as the ridge weakens slightly. By late
in the forecast period, a turn to the northwest should occur as
Maria reaches a break in the ridge. The models are generally in
good agreement on this scenario, but vary somewhat in how sharp of a
turn to the right Marie makes later on in the forecast period. The
latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one,
and lies near the various track consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.8N 118.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 18.0N 126.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 19.8N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 21.1N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-10-01 08:36


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 010834
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020

...MARIE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 118.1W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 118.1 West. Marie is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest with decreasing forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to
become a major hurricane by tonight with some additional
strengthening possible through Friday. Marie is then forecast to
begin weakening this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-10-01 08:35


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 010834
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.1W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.1W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 126.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 130.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 132.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 118.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-10-01 04:01


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 010359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.10.2020

HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 116.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2020 0 14.4N 116.0W 992 41
1200UTC 01.10.2020 12 15.0N 118.8W 984 46
0000UTC 02.10.2020 24 15.7N 121.7W 976 51
1200UTC 02.10.2020 36 16.6N 124.3W 973 55
0000UTC 03.10.2020 48 17.8N 126.4W 967 64
1200UTC 03.10.2020 60 18.9N 128.2W 968 65
0000UTC 04.10.2020 72 19.9N 129.8W 973 63
1200UTC 04.10.2020 84 20.0N 131.5W 983 54
0000UTC 05.10.2020 96 20.3N 133.3W 988 47
1200UTC 05.10.2020 108 20.7N 135.5W 992 46
0000UTC 06.10.2020 120 21.2N 137.3W 995 45
1200UTC 06.10.2020 132 22.0N 138.4W 998 40
0000UTC 07.10.2020 144 22.8N 139.2W 1001 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 37.3N 66.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2020 120 38.3N 62.6W 1008 43
1200UTC 06.10.2020 132 41.1N 53.4W 1002 50
0000UTC 07.10.2020 144 43.2N 44.6W 999 44

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.3N 114.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2020 120 14.3N 114.0W 1006 27
1200UTC 06.10.2020 132 14.9N 114.7W 1006 26
0000UTC 07.10.2020 144 15.2N 115.1W 1004 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010359

>

2020-10-01 04:01


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 010359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2020

HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 116.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2020 14.4N 116.0W MODERATE
12UTC 01.10.2020 15.0N 118.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2020 15.7N 121.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2020 16.6N 124.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2020 17.8N 126.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2020 18.9N 128.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2020 19.9N 129.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2020 20.0N 131.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2020 20.3N 133.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2020 20.7N 135.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2020 21.2N 137.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2020 22.0N 138.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2020 22.8N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 37.3N 66.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2020 38.3N 62.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 06.10.2020 41.1N 53.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2020 43.2N 44.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.3N 114.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2020 14.3N 114.0W WEAK
12UTC 06.10.2020 14.9N 114.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2020 15.2N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010359

>

2020-10-01 03:08


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 010400
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 18E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 115.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 115.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.7N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.3N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.2N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.2N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.2N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.1N 129.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.7N 131.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.6N 134.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 116.7W.
01OCT20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-10-01 02:52


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 010250
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020

Passive microwave satellite data and satellite intensity estimates
indicate that Marie has undergone a brief intensity hiatus since the
previous advisory. Date from the 2055Z AMSR and 2306Z SSMI
microwave passes indicated that the earlier eye feature has eroded
some and opened up on the east side due to dry air entrainment and
modest easterly vertical wind shear of about 10 kt. The initial
intensity is being held at 65 kt based on subjective Dvorak
classifications of T4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS
objective intensity estimates of T4.1/67 kt and 62 kt from ADT and
SATCON, respectively.

The motion estimate is 280/14 kt. The latest NHC model guidance
remains in excellent agreement through about 96 h on Marie moving
west-northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge
located to the north of the cyclone. Thereafter, there is
considerable divergence in the guidance with the ECMWF and UKMET
taking Marie more westward, while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models
take the hurricane northward into a break in the ridge; the latter
scenario is preferred by the various simple and corrected consensus
models. As a result, no significant changes were required to the
previous forecast, and the new forecast track essentially lies down
the model of the tightly packed consensus model envelope.

Although the eyewall has eroded somewhat, the small inner-core wind
field still appears to be intact based on low-level cloud features
seen in 36-37 GHz satellite imagery. Once the narrow dry air
intrusions mix out in about 6 hours or so, rapid intensification
(RI) should resume and continue through 48 hours while the shear
gradually decreases to near zero by then. By 60 hours and continuing
through the remainder of the forecast period, cooler sea-surface
temperatures, along with cold upwelling generated by Marie, should
cause the hurricane to weaken, with rapid weakening likely beginning
by 72 hours when significant southwesterly vertical wind shear kicks
in ahead of a deep-layer trough that will be moving eastward out of
the central Pacific. The new official intensity forecast is
essentially identical to the previous NHC forecast, and lies along
the extreme upper end of the intensity guidance, about midway
between the Navy COAMPS-TC model (CTCI) and the NOAA-HCCA
corrected-consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.5N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.7N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.3N 121.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 19.1N 129.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 20.7N 131.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 22.6N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-01 02:51


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 010249
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...MARIE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 116.5W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Marie is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue over the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest with decreasing forward
speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to
become a major hurricane by Friday with some additional
strengthening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-10-01 02:51


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 010249
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 118.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 121.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 129.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 131.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.6N 134.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 116.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2020-09-30 21:11


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 302200
1. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 18E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 114.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 114.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.4N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.8N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.6N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.6N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.7N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.6N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.3N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.8N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302200Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 115.4W.
30SEP20. HURRICANE 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1120 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-30 20:47


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 302044
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020

Marie has continued to become better organized today, with a
well-defined convective band that wraps more than completely around
the cloud system center. This yields a Dvorak intensity estimate of
at least 65 kt, and subjective and objective T-numbers from SAB and
UW-CIMSS respectively also correspond to an intensity of 65 kt.
Therefore, the system is being upgraded to a hurricane, which is the
first for the month of September in this relatively quiet eastern
North Pacific hurricane season. The vertical wind shear has
decreased and is forecast to remain low for the next few days.
This, combined with a moist low- to mid-tropospheric air mass and
warm sea surface temperatures, should lead to an environment that is
very conducive for strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI Index shows
a significant probability of rapid intensification over the next 24
hours. Therefore, the official forecast calls for Marie to become a
major hurricane tomorrow with additional strengthening during the
succeeding day. This is close to the predictions from the two
corrected consensus techniques, HCCA and FSSE. By 72 hours, Marie
should have begun passing over progressively cooler waters, so a
steady weakening trend is likely to be underway by that time.

The motion continues just north of due west, or 275/14 kt. The
track forecast reasoning hasn't changed much from the previous
advisories. Over the next few days, the hurricane should be steered
on a westward to west-northwestward course on the south side of a
mid-level subtropical ridge. Right around the end of the forecast
period, Marie should begin to turn more to the right in response to
a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is similar to
the previous one and lies between the simple and corrected dynamical
consensus predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 14.3N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 14.4N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.6N 122.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 16.6N 124.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 17.7N 126.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 18.6N 128.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 20.3N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 21.8N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-30 20:40


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 302039
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...MARIE BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE 2020 EAST PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 115.1W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 115.1 West. Marie is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue over the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest with decreasing forward
speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is
expected to become a major hurricane on Friday with additional
strengthening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

2020-09-30 20:38


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 302037
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.1W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.1W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 114.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.4N 117.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.6N 122.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.6N 124.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.7N 126.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 128.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 131.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.8N 134.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 115.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

2020-09-30 15:20


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 113.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 113.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.3N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.5N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.1N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.9N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.9N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.0N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.8N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.1N 133.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 114.0W.
30SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1138
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND 011600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-30 14:45


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 301443
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020

Marie's satellite presentation has been gradually improving. The
center is embedded beneath a central dense overcast feature, and
the convective band within the western semicircle has become a
little more pronounced and continuous. In addition, a mid-level eye
has begun to form, as observed in a 1200 UTC SSMIS microwave
pass. Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt from
TAFB and SAB, and the most recent SATCON estimate was 53 kt (at
around 0900 UTC). Based on these numbers and the continued
improvement of Marie's structure, the initial intensity is set at 55
kt.

The stage appears set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the
next couple of days. Water vapor imagery indicates that the
easterly shear over the cyclone has continued to decrease and
should be generally low for the next 3 days, and upper-level
divergence will also be in place during that period to help
ventilate the storm. The thermodynamics are also favorable for
fast strengthening, highlighted by sea surface temperatures of
28-29 degrees Celsius and plenty of moisture in the surrounding
environment. Due to these conditions, the NHC forecast explicitly
shows rapid intensification during the next couple of days, with a
peak intensity likely occuring sometime between 48 and 60 hours.
The peak intensity shown in the official forecast has been nudged
upward slightly from the previous prediction, following the trends
in the intensity guidance, however it's noteworthy that even this
forecast is 5-10 kt lower than the solutions provided by the HCCA
consensus aid and the COAMPS-TC model. In about 3 days, cooler
waters and then increasing shear (especially on days 4 and 5)
should induce a gradual weakening trend.

Marie is moving westward (275/14 kt) to the south of a strong
mid-tropospheric high centered near the U.S./Mexico border. This
ridge is expected to maintain Marie on a westward or
west-northwestward trajectory for the next 2-3 days. Even though a
mid- to upper-level low near 130W longitude has caused a break in
the ridge, the models have trended toward this feature weakening
during the next few days. This has in turn caused many of the
models to trend westward with Marie's track after day 3, as was
noted in the previous advisory, but there is also greater spread
than there was yesterday. The NHC track forecast remains closest to
the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, near the middle of the guidance
envelope, which is bracketed on the right side by the GFS (and its
ensemble mean) and the left side by the ECMWF (and its ensemble
mean) by the end of the forecast period.

The 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a
tropical storm of Marie's size due to a large fetch of southerly
swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 14.2N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-30 14:44


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 301443
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 113.8W
ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 113.8 West. Marie is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is
expected to become a hurricane this evening or tonight. Marie
could then become a major hurricane by late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-09-30 14:44


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 301443
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.8W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.8W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-09-30 09:38


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 111.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 111.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 14.4N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.5N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.9N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.7N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.8N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.0N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.0N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.5N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 112.7W.
30SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1160
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-30 08:39


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 300837
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020

Geostationary satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to
become better organized with a curved band of convection over the
western semicircle and a small central dense overcast feature. An
ASCAT-B overpass from around 0515 UTC was very helpful in
pinpointing the center, and it also revealed that Marie's
tropical-storm-force wind field is quite small. Subjective
satellite intensity estimates of T3.0 and the scatterometer
data yielded an intensity of 45 kt at 0600 UTC, but given the
continued improvement in organization, the advisory intensity
has been set at 50 kt.

Although Marie's outflow is somewhat restricted over the
northeastern portion of the storm due to some northeasterly shear,
it has been expanding over the past few hours indicating that the
shear is decreasing as anticipated. Marie is forecast to remain
over warm waters and in a low shear environment during the next
couple of days. These very conducive conditions favor
strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady to
rapid intensification over the next 48 hours. The official
forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS, LGEM, and HFIP
corrected consensus models which all predict periods of rapid
strengthening over the next 48 to 60 hours. The updated NHC wind
speed forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening and a slightly
higher peak intensity than in the previous advisory. After 72
hours, cooler waters and a more stable environment should result in
steady to rapid weakening.

Maria is moving westward at about 14 kt, a little faster than
before. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy
as Marie is expected to move westward to west-northwestward during
the next few days while it remains to the south of a deep-layer
ridge. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is predicted
when Marie approaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest runs of
the dynamical models have trended toward a more westward track
during the first 60 hours or so, and the official forecast has been
adjusted accordingly. Thereafter, the NHC track is fairly similar
to the previous advisory, and it again lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

Marie's 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a
small tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell
originating from the Southern Hemisphere.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 14.1N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-09-30 08:38


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 300836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 112.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 112.5 West. Marie is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Marie is
expected to become a hurricane by tonight. The storm is forecast
to become a major hurricane within a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-09-30 08:37


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 300836
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.5W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 180SE 210SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.5W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2020-09-30 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 300359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.09.2020

TROPICAL STORM MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 109.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2020 0 13.8N 109.7W 1004 26
1200UTC 30.09.2020 12 14.7N 112.8W 1003 26
0000UTC 01.10.2020 24 14.9N 116.3W 999 29
1200UTC 01.10.2020 36 15.2N 119.8W 995 35
0000UTC 02.10.2020 48 15.5N 122.6W 988 43
1200UTC 02.10.2020 60 16.5N 124.9W 980 47
0000UTC 03.10.2020 72 17.8N 127.1W 971 62
1200UTC 03.10.2020 84 18.9N 128.9W 971 63
0000UTC 04.10.2020 96 19.5N 130.6W 975 63
1200UTC 04.10.2020 108 19.5N 132.4W 980 60
0000UTC 05.10.2020 120 19.1N 134.3W 988 51
1200UTC 05.10.2020 132 18.6N 136.2W 995 41
0000UTC 06.10.2020 144 18.8N 137.8W 997 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 31.4N 78.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2020 132 32.2N 77.1W 1009 39
0000UTC 06.10.2020 144 32.6N 72.0W 1011 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 36.1N 71.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2020 132 36.1N 71.6W 1007 36
0000UTC 06.10.2020 144 38.2N 64.1W 1006 40


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300358

>

2020-09-30 03:51


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 110.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 110.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.1N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.6N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.5N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.5N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.6N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.8N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.4N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 111.0W.
30SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1204
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 010400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-09-30 02:37


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 300235
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020

Infrared and passive microwave imagery indicate that Marie has
continued to become better organized despite moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear of about 15 kt. The deep convection is now
primarily confined to a single tightly curved band that wraps
around the west side of the circulation. A late-arriving 29/1718Z
ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed that Marie has a very tight
inner-core circulation with a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of only
10-15 nmi and a small 34-kt wind radii extending outward to only
about 20 nmi The scatterometer data also showed some 34-38 kt
surface wind vectors in all quadrants. A blend of the scatterometer
wind data and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of of T2.5/35 kt
and T3.0/45 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the intensity has
been increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, Marie's forecast track remains fairly
straightforward. The cyclone is expected to move generally westward
to west-northwestward for the next few days as it skirts the
southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to the north. Thereafter, a
slower motion toward the northwest is forecast as Marie moves into a
weakness in the ridge. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but
a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and lies
down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track model
guidance envelope.

Although the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models have backed
off significantly on predicting rapid intensification (RI) on this
cycle, several environmental and cyclone structural parameters are
still favorable for RI to occur. For about the next 72 hours,
sea-surface temperatures (SST) are forecast to remain above 28C,
alone with mid-level humidity values above 70 prevent and low wind
shear values around 5 kt. Those environmental conditions coupled
with Marie's small RMW should result in RI beginning in about 24
hours and continuing until the 60-h time period. As result, Marie
is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane in about 24 hours and
possibly become a major hurricane in 60-72 hours. Rapid weakening
is expected on days 4 and 5 due to SSTs less than 26C, likely
significant cold upwelling owing to Marie's expected large and
strong wind field, and increasing southwesterly vertical shear of
20-25 kt. The NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the Decay-SHIPS
and LGEM statistical models and the corrected-consensus HCCA model.

Marie's 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a
small tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell
originating from the Southern Hemisphere.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 13.8N 110.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.6N 115.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 15.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 15.5N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 16.5N 123.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 19.8N 129.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 21.4N 132.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-09-30 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 300232
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...TROPICAL STORM MARIE STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 110.4W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 110.4 West. Marie is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed
is expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Marie is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-09-30 02:33


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 300232
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 110.4W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 110.4W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.6N 115.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.5N 121.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.5N 123.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.8N 129.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 21.4N 132.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 110.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2020-09-29 20:56


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 108.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 108.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.9N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 14.6N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.9N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.3N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.0N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.2N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.6N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.4N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 109.7W.
29SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 18E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1233 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-09-29 20:36


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 292033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020

A WindSat microwave image from earlier this morning indicated that
the tropical cyclone's low-level circulation was becoming better
defined, with perhaps the formative stage of a cyan ring seen in the
37-GHz channel. Visible images also show the center tucked just
beneath recent bursts of deep convection, and Dvorak estimates have
risen to T2.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. These data,
along with ambiguity analyses of recent ASCAT-B and -C scatterometer
passes, indicate the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm
Marie with maximum winds of 35 kt.

Marie's future track is probably the most straightforward part of
the forecast. A mid-tropospheric high anchored over the
southwestern United States is steering Marie westward with an
initial motion of 275/10 kt. This high will remain the main driver,
forcing the cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 3
days. By days 4 and 5, Marie is likely to reach a break in the
ridge and should slow down a bit and turn toward the northwest.
There are no notable outliers among the track guidance, and the
small spread among the models yields higher-than-normal confidence
in the track forecast. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the
previous prediction, and is close to the TVCE and HCCA consensus
aids.

The intensity forecast is a little more challenging, but mostly
because a good proportion of the guidance suggests that Marie will
intensify significantly during the next few days. Relatively low
deep-layer shear, warm ocean waters, and favorable upper-level
divergence all favor strengthening, and several of the various
SHIPS Rapid Intensification thresholds are several times higher
than their climatological means. In addition, all of the dynamical
models, the consensus aids, and the GFS-based SHIPS model bring
Marie to hurricane strength within 24 hours. Given these signals,
the NHC intensity forecast has been raised from the previous one
and lies near or just below the intensity consensus in order to
maintain some continuity. But given what is shown by some of the
better-performing intensity models, I would not be surprised if
subsequent forecasts show a faster rate of intensification or
a higher peak intensity. Weakening is expected by days 4 and 5 due
to cooler waters and increasing southwesterly shear.

Marie's 12-ft sea radii are larger than would be expected for a
small, just-developing tropical storm due to a large fetch of
southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 13.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.9N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 14.9N 117.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 15.3N 120.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 17.2N 124.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 19.6N 128.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 21.4N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-29 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 292033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 109.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 109.5 West. Marie is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next few days, and Marie could become a hurricane by Wednesday
or Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-09-29 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 292032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 109.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 109.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.9N 111.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.9N 117.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.3N 120.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 124.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.6N 128.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 21.4N 131.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 109.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-09-29 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 291558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 107.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2020 0 13.3N 107.1W 1006 23
0000UTC 30.09.2020 12 14.7N 108.6W 1005 24
1200UTC 30.09.2020 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.5N 116.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2020 36 15.5N 116.5W 1001 31
1200UTC 01.10.2020 48 16.0N 120.0W 998 34
0000UTC 02.10.2020 60 16.7N 122.9W 993 42
1200UTC 02.10.2020 72 17.8N 125.4W 982 47
0000UTC 03.10.2020 84 19.2N 127.5W 979 53
1200UTC 03.10.2020 96 20.3N 129.0W 982 60
0000UTC 04.10.2020 108 21.0N 130.7W 992 48
1200UTC 04.10.2020 120 20.8N 133.1W 999 40
0000UTC 05.10.2020 132 20.5N 135.8W 1002 35
1200UTC 05.10.2020 144 20.1N 139.0W 1006 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 32.1N 76.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2020 144 32.1N 76.9W 1007 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291558

>

2020-09-29 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 291558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 107.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2020 13.3N 107.1W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2020 14.7N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.5N 116.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2020 15.5N 116.5W WEAK
12UTC 01.10.2020 16.0N 120.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2020 16.7N 122.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2020 17.8N 125.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2020 19.2N 127.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2020 20.3N 129.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2020 21.0N 130.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2020 20.8N 133.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2020 20.5N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2020 20.1N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 32.1N 76.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.10.2020 32.1N 76.9W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291558

>

2020-09-29 14:43


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 291441
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020

The tropical cyclone is gradually becoming better organized, with a
Central Dense Overcast feature developing near/over the estimated
center. The system is experiencing moderate east-northeasterly
shear which is currently restricting upper-level outflow over the
eastern semicircle of the system. Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB indicate that the cyclone's maximum winds are near 30 kt.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the shear will soon diminish,
and the atmospheric and oceanic environment is expected to be quite
conducive for strengthening during the next few days. The
official forecast shows steady intensification with the system
becoming a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane within 72
hours. This is a little below the latest intensity model
consensus, which suggests that that the cyclone could be near major
hurricane status in about 72 hours.

The center is not easy to locate at this time, so the initial motion
estimate of 280/9 kt is more uncertain than usual. A strengthening
subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should
maintain a westward or west-northwestward motion at an increased
forward speed for the next 72 hours or so. In 4-5 days, a weakness
in the ridge in the vicinity of 130W longitude should cause the
system to turn toward the northwest. The official track forecast
is a little north and northeast of the latest model consensus.

The dynamical guidance shows an expanding wind field with the
tropical cyclone, and the official wind radii forecasts, especially
beyond 2 days, are in close agreement with the consensus wind radii
forecast technique, RVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 13.3N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 13.8N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.4N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 14.6N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 14.7N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 15.4N 121.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 16.4N 124.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.9N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 21.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-29 14:43


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 291441
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 108.5W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 108.5
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17
km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
The system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

2020-09-29 14:43


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 291441
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 108.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 108.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 108.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.8N 110.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.4N 113.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.6N 116.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 119.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.4N 121.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.4N 124.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 127.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 108.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

2020-09-29 08:45


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 290843
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020

A burst of deep convection that developed near the center of the
area of low pressure well southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the evening has persisted overnight. Microwave
imagery and a 0444 UTC ASCAT-C overpass indicated that the center
of the low re-formed within the area of deep convection and with
the overall increase in the organization of the system, advisories
are being initiated on the eighteen tropical depression of the 2020
eastern Pacific hurricane season. The scatterometer data revealed
peak winds of around 30 kt, and that is used as the advisory
intensity.

The depression is located over warm water and within an area of
light to moderate northeasterly shear, and these conditions are
expected to allow for steady strengthening over the next few days.
Although the SHIPS model guidance only shows a peak intensity
of 65-70 kt in 72-84 hours, the SHIPS rapid intensification index
indicates a 50 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in intensity over
the next 72 hours. In addition, the global models significantly
deepen the system over the next few days. On the basis of the
SHIP RI information and the global models, the NHC intensity
forecast is above the IVCN intensity consensus close to the more
aggressive HWRF and HCCA models. Late in the period, decreasing
SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear should result in weakening.

Given the recent re-formation of the center, the initial motion
estimate is a highly uncertain 275/9 kt. A deep-layer ridge
centered over the southwestern United States is expected to steer
the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during the next several
days. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone will be
approaching the southwestern portion of the ridge allowing it to
turn northwesterly. Although there some model differences in
the predicted forward speed of the depression, the models are in
good agreement on the overall track forecast scenario. To account
for these forward speed differences, the NHC forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope close to the various consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 13.2N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 13.5N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 14.2N 111.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 14.8N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 16.2N 122.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 18.3N 126.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 20.5N 129.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-09-29 08:43


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 290842
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 107.6W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 107.6
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17
km/h). A west to west-northwest motion at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
The system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-09-29 08:43


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 290841
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.2N 111.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.8N 117.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 122.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.3N 126.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 129.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 107.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>