Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TEDDY-20
in Canada, Bermuda,

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-09-24 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 240243
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Teddy is accelerating over the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and
will move over the Strait of Belle Isle later, while continuing
to fill/decay as an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity
is set at 45 kt, and this is based on the various surface wind and
pressure observations along the west coast of Newfoundland from
Channel-Port aux Basques northward to Port Saunders and the Straits.
Teddy is forecast to maintain its current intensity and motion,
with some further increase in forward speed, and merge with a
larger, stronger high-latitude extratropical low near the Labrador
Sea on Thursday.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.

This will be the last NHC advisory on Teddy. For additional
information, including warnings, consult products issued by
Environment Canada at: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

For marine interests, additional information can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 51.0N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/1200Z 54.7N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/0000Z...MERGED WITH A LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-24 02:45


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 240243
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...
...FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.0N 57.3W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM NNE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM NNW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 51.0 North, longitude 57.3 West based on
the Marble Mountain, Newfoundland, radar and surface observations
along the west coast of Newfoundland. The post-tropical cyclone
is moving toward the north-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Teddy should move closer to the
northwestern Newfoundland coast tonight and into the Labrador Sea on
Thursday before merging with a larger extratropical low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before the system merges with
the extratropical low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
By the Sea, Newfoundland (near the Cow Head Lighthouse) reported a
barometric pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the western coast of
Newfoundland tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For hazard information for Newfoundland and
Labrador, please consult products issued by Environment Canada at
weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

Additional information on the post-tropical cyclone can also be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-24 02:45


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 240242
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 57.3W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 28 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 840SE 900SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 57.3W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 49.7N 58.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 54.7N 54.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...MERGED WITH A LARGER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.0N 57.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-09-23 23:42


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 232340
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 46A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...
...STILL LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WAVES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.7N 59.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...115 KM NNE OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...245 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has dicontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
based on the Marble Mountain, Newfoundland radar and conventional
satellite imagery was located near latitude 49.7 North, longitude
59.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the
north-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Teddy should move closer to the northwestern Newfoundland
coast tonight and into the Labrador Sea on Thursday before merging
with a larger extratropical low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before the system
merges with the extratropical low on Thursday. A weather station
located at Stephenville, Newfoundland recently reported a gust to 47
mph (76 km/hr).

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the western coast of
Newfoundland tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-23 20:40


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 232037
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Teddy is moving quickly north-northeastward just west of
Newfoundland this afternoon as a decaying extratropical low.
Maximum winds from an earlier scatterometer pass were about 50 kt,
and the winds have probably come down based on pressure data from
Meat Cove as the storm left Nova Scotia, so the initial wind speed
is set to 45 kt. Little change in intensity is expected overnight
as Teddy races near northwestern Newfoundland and southeastern
Labrador overnight. The storm is then forecast to move across the
Labrador Sea on Thursday and become absorbed into a powerful
extratropical low, where hurricane-force winds are forecast
southwest of Greenland. No changes were made to the previous track
or intensity forecasts.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. The most significant hazards expected from Teddy now are
dangerous waves and high winds for Newfoundland, and Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect for parts of southwestern Newfoundland.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 48.6N 59.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/0600Z 52.0N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-23 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 232037
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY MOVING JUST WEST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...
...STILL LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WAVES AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.6N 59.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 48.6 North, longitude 59.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 31
mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Teddy will
move closer to northwestern Newfoundland tonight and into the
Labrador Sea on Thursday before becoming absorbed by a larger
non-tropical low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before the system dissipates
on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area for the next several hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-23 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 232036
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.6N 59.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 640SE 990SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.6N 59.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.4N 60.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 52.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 48.6N 59.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-23 17:57


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 231754
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 PM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE...
...STILL LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WAVES AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.5N 60.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM W OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Meat Cove.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Watches.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case during about the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC),the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 47.5 North, longitude 60.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 29
mph (46 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
be moving near Newfoundland through tonight, and be east of Labrador
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy should slowly weaken today before dissipating on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding and large waves are expected to
gradually subside late today.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area for the next several hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-23 15:12


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 231436
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Surface observations indicate that Teddy made landfall this morning
near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 1200 UTC with estimated maximum
sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb. Since
then, the storm has continued to race across Nova Scotia and is
slowly weakening. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. Teddy
should move north-northeastward across the Gulf of St. Lawrence this
afternoon then move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing
east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging
with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. No
significant changes were made to the previous track or intensity
forecasts, which are similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy today is large
destructive waves along the southeastern coast of Nova Scotia.
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of
Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 46.0N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/0000Z 49.5N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/1200Z 54.5N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-23 15:12


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 231435
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ECUM SECUM NOVA SCOTIA...
...STILL FORECAST TO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.0N 61.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Digby to Ecum Secum Nova Scotia.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch from Fort Lawrence to Digby Nova Scotia, and from west of
Brule to Tidnish.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Brule Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Teddy made landfall near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 800 AM AST
(1200 UTC), with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 km/h),
and a minimum central pressure of 964 mb (28.47 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 46.0 North, longitude 61.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26
mph (43 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
will move over the Gulf of St. Lawrence this afternoon, be near
Newfoundland early tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Teddy should slowly weaken today before dissipating on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to
67 mph (107 km/h) were recently reported at Hart Island along the
eastern coast of Nova Scotia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible over portions of
eastern Nova Scotia east of Ecum Secum. Near the coast, large and
destructive waves are likely.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area and are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning
area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch areas today.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-23 15:12


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 231434
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM DIGBY TO ECUM SECUM NOVA SCOTIA.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO DIGBY NOVA SCOTIA, AND FROM WEST OF
BRULE TO TIDNISH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEAT COVE
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO BRULE NOVA SCOTIA
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TEDDY.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.0N 61.3W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 720SE 990SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.0N 61.3W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.0N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 49.5N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 54.5N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...390NE 250SE 90SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.0N 61.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-23 11:47


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 231145
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 44A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...TEDDY CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.8N 62.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 44.8 North, longitude 62.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 23
mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
will move over eastern Nova Scotia soon, and then near or over
Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but
Teddy should remain a strong post-tropical cyclone while passing
over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to
51 mph (81 km/h) were recently reported at Hart Island along the
eastern coast of Nova Scotia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-23 09:21


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 230918 CCA
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 44...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Corrected status at 48H

Teddy's deep convection has been diminishing, but based on buoy
observations the cyclone still has a strong circulation with a
central pressure in the 950's. Assuming a gradual spindown of the
system since the earlier aircraft observations, the estimated
maximum winds have dropped to just below hurricane strength. The
system is expected to traverse Nova Scotia today as a strong
extratropical cyclone, and move near Newfoundland by tonight. After
passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy
merging with another large extratropical low over the north
Atlantic.

The estimated initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/20 kt.
Teddy is embedded within a deep-layer trough that is located in the
vicinity of Atlantic Canada. The post-tropical cyclone should move
north-northeastward on the eastern side of the trough for the next
36-48 hours before it merges with the other low. The official
track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also closely
follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the
next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone
while it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada through
tonight. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large
destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia
today.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions
of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 44.5N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-23 08:55


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 230852
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA
* NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 62.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......240NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
34 KT.......450NE 360SE 250SW 250NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 720SE 960SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 62.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N 62.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-09-23 08:43


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 230841
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Teddy's deep convection has been diminishing, but based on buoy
observations the cyclone still has a strong circulation with a
central pressure in the 950's. Assuming a gradual spindown of the
system since the earlier aircraft observations, the estimated
maximum winds have dropped to just below hurricane strength. The
system is expected to traverse Nova Scotia today as a strong
extratropical cyclone, and move near Newfoundland by tonight. After
passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy
merging with another large extratropical low over the north
Atlantic.

The estimated initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/20 kt.
Teddy is embedded within a deep-layer trough that is located in the
vicinity of Atlantic Canada. The post-tropical cyclone should move
north-northeastward on the eastern side of the trough for the next
36-48 hours before it merges with the other low. The official
track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also closely
follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the
next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone
while it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada through
tonight. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large
destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia
today.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions
of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 44.5N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0600Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-23 08:42


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 230840
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY NEARING NOVA SCOTIA...
...CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 62.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 62.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 23
mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
will move over eastern Nova Scotia later today, and then near or
over Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
but Teddy should remain a strong post-tropical cyclone while
passing over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust
to 57 mph (94 km/h) were reported at Brier Island along the western
coast of Nova Scotia within the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-23 08:42


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 230840
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA
* NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 62.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......240NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
34 KT.......450NE 360SE 250SW 250NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 720SE 960SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 62.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N 62.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-09-23 05:51


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 230549
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST TO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.4N 63.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 43.4 North, longitude 63.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 18
mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center will move
over eastern Nova Scotia later today, and then near or over
Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Although additional weakening is likely today,
Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near
and over Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540
miles (870 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-23 02:38


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 230236
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

Extratropical transition has been ongoing since last night, with
the cyclone's associated rain shield expanding over a great
distance in the northern semicircle. In addition, multiple
dropsonde observations from the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters
and buoy data show a sharp temperature gradient of nearly 20
degrees F from northwest quadrant to the southeast, indicative of
the cyclone's involvement with the strong baroclinic frontal zone.
Accordingly, Teddy has become a strong post-tropical extratropical
cyclone. Highest flight-level winds recorded this evening were 83
kt about 85 miles northeast of the center and the highest SFMR
surface winds were 63 kt. A recent METOP-C scatterometer pass
showed sustained winds no higher than 59 kt in the east quadrant.
A blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 70 kt for this
advisory. Further gradual weakening is forecast through the period
as a result of the rapidly decreasing sea surface temperatures
(less than 20C) north of the North Wall of the gulf stream. The
NHC forecast indicates Teddy approaching the coast of Nova Scotia
below hurricane strength, but still as a strong post-tropical
extratropical low. Teddy should continue to gradually spin down as
the cyclone moves north-northeastward toward Newfoundland.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/16 kt.
A north-northeastward turn is forecast later tonight or early
Wednesday in response to an approaching mid-latitude shortwave
trough moving out of the northeast U.S. Teddy should move over
Nova Scotia tomorrow and near the island of Newfoundland, and the
adjacent waters of the Gulf of St. Lawrence Wednesday night.
Afterward, the post-tropical cyclone will likely be absorbed by an
even larger high latitude extratropical cyclone near Greenland.
There has been no significant changes made to the NHC forecast
track this evening, and it's in best agreement with the HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach model.


Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected
from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern
coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions
of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 42.8N 63.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 23/1200Z 45.3N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 49.8N 58.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 24/1200Z 54.7N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-23 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 230234
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST TO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.8N 63.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 63.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30
km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over
eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over
Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east of Labrador on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Although weakening is likely tonight and
Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it
moves near and over Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540
miles (870 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area on Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-23 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 230234
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA
* NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 63.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.
50 KT.......240NE 120SE 130SW 210NW.
34 KT.......470NE 390SE 270SW 280NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 720SE 960SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 63.8W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 64.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 45.3N 62.3W...INLAND/POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 49.8N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 54.7N 54.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.8N 63.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-09-22 23:37


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 222335
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY HEADING TOWARD THE NOVA SCOTIA
COAST...
...DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.9N 64.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 64.2 West. Teddy is
moving toward the north near 18 mph (29 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday,
and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east
of Labrador on Thursday.

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Although further weakening is likely tonight and
Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it
moves near and over Nova Scotia. A weather station at Brier Island
recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h), and a gust
of 51 mph (81 km/h).

Teddy is an extremely large post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force
winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540 miles (870 km).
Buoy 44150, located about 60 n mi north of the center, recently
reported a significant wave height of 36 ft (11 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area now. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area on Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-22 20:57


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 222054
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

Teddy is a very impressive cyclone on satellite images this
afternoon, even from full-disk images. The hurricane's circulation
is over 1000 miles wide, with an enormous distinct comma shape and
frontal features especially in the eastern semicircle. As far as
what to call the system convection has actually deepened near the
center during the past several hours, and an AMSR pass around 1700
UTC showed that the system still had a low-level eye feature. For
that reason and for simplicity's sake, the system will remain a
hurricane on this advisory, although it is obviously a hybrid low
with many characteristics of a non-tropical cyclone. The initial
wind speed is lowered to 80 kt, assuming the filling trend reported
by the last NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission continued. The wind radii
are expanded based on ASCAT data, with tropical-storm-force winds
over eastern Nova Scotia already.

The hurricane is forecast to transition into a post-tropical cyclone
later tonight or early tomorrow due to the cooler waters north of
the Gulf Stream likely weakening any central convection. Teddy
should decay below hurricane-strength before reaching Nova Scotia
and steadily weaken as it moves over the even colder waters in the
Gulf of St. Lawrence. The new intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous one and is closest to the GFS model.

Teddy is moving northward now and should turn north-northeastward
tomorrow ahead of the next trough in the mid-latitudes. This will
take Post-Tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland
during the next couple of days, with the cyclone likely being
absorbed into a larger extratropical cyclone west of Greenland in
2-3 days. There are no significant changes to report, though there
has been a slight westward shift of the track near Newfoundland.

The hazards from Teddy are extending at quite a distance from the
center of this hurricane. In addition to the 500-mile wind
radii in the northeastern quadrant, Canadian buoy 44150 has
recently reported 42 ft (13 m) significant wave heights, with the
buoy still about 90 n mi from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected
from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern
coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions
of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 41.1N 64.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 43.1N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 23/1800Z 47.0N 60.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 24/0600Z 51.5N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1800Z 56.5N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-22 20:55


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 222052
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND...
...GINORMOUS TEDDY TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.1N 64.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
from Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 41.1 North, longitude 64.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday,
and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east
of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although some weakening is likely tonight and Wednesday,
Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near
and over Nova Scotia.

Teddy is an extremely large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540 miles (870 km).
Buoy 44150, located about 90 n mi north of the center, recently
reported a significant wave height of 42 ft (13 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area now. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area on Wednesday
afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-22 20:53


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 222051
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA
* NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 64.2W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.
50 KT.......240NE 120SE 130SW 210NW.
34 KT.......470NE 390SE 270SW 280NW.
12 FT SEAS..660NE 780SE 960SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 64.2W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 64.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 43.1N 63.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 47.0N 60.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 51.5N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 56.5N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...340NE 240SE 210SW 290NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.1N 64.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-22 17:46


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 221744
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...EXTREMELY LARGE TEDDY TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 64.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 40.3 North, longitude 64.1 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday,
and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east
of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday,
Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near
and over Nova Scotia.

Teddy is an extremely large hurricane. Satellite-derived winds and
a recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission indicate that hurricane-force
winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 550 miles (890 km).
Buoy 44150, located about 150 n mi north of the center, recently
reported a significant wave height of 36 ft (11 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches)
based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area soon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas late today or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-22 15:02


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 221459
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

Teddy is in the late stages of extratropical transition. The
hurricane has taken on a large comma shape in satellite images, with
a huge dry-air intrusion aloft near the center and a cold front on
the western side of the cyclone. While it is tempting to call it an
extratropical now, temperature data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Teddy has maintained a significant warm
core, and the strongest winds on the southwestern side appear to be
more related to the cyclone and not the front. Lastly, deep
convection is trying to re-develop near the center, another
indication that the transition is not yet done. Thus Teddy will
remain a hurricane on this advisory. The initial wind speed is set
to 90 kt, a blend of the 122-kt flight-level winds, 75-kt SFMR
values, and global model analyses since much of this large hurricane
is not being sampled.

Teddy should transition into a post-tropical cyclone by the time it
reaches Nova Scotia and steadily weaken as it moves over the cooler
waters north of the Gulf Stream. The cyclone should turn northward
today and north-northeastward tomorrow ahead of the next trough in
the mid-latitudes. This will take Post-Tropical Teddy over Nova
Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days, with
the cyclone likely being absorbed into a larger extratropical
cyclone west of Greenland in 2-3 days. There are no significant
changes to report, except to show a sooner dissipation, which is
consistent with the latest global models solutions.

The hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds fields, plus
12-ft seas area, from Teddy have just about doubled overnight, so it
is important to note that hazards will extend much farther than
normal from the center of this hurricane. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter
reported hurricane-force surface winds 120 n mi northwest of the
center, and Canadian buoy 44150 has recently reported 34-ft
significant wave heights, with the buoy still about 180 n mi from
the center.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected
from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern
coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions
of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland, and heavy
rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy through
Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 39.6N 63.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 41.8N 64.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 44.8N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 24/0000Z 48.8N 59.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1200Z 54.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-22 14:59


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 221456
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...TEDDY EXPECTED TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 63.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 39.6 North,
longitude 63.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near
16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected
by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move
over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over
Newfoundland by Wednesday night and east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday,
Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near
and over Nova Scotia.

Teddy is an extremely large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches)
based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-22 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 221454
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA
* NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 63.7W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
50 KT.......210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
34 KT.......360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..660NE 780SE 960SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 63.7W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.8N 64.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...260NE 280SE 240SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.8N 62.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 260SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 48.8N 59.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 54.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 63.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-22 11:59


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 221156
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...TEDDY FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES TO NOVA SCOTIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 63.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 63.5 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday,
and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday,
Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near
and over Nova Scotia.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 400 miles (645 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-22 08:53


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 220850
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

Recent satellite imagery shows that the central convection is
diminishing, with a comma-like cloud pattern developing.
The current intensity is held at 85 kt based on continuity from the
earlier aircraft mission. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Teddy later today which should provide a
good estimate of the intensity. Teddy is moving along the northern
part of the Gulf Stream and should begin to move into cooler waters
later today. Therefore weakening is expected over the next
couple of days. However, baroclinic forcing should keep
the cyclone at or near hurricane strength while it approaches
Nova Scotia. The official intensity forecast is above the model
consensus to qualitatively account for baroclinic effects. After
72 hours, or sooner, post-tropical Teddy should become absorbed or
merge with a large extratropical low over the north Atlantic.

Teddy has accelerated somewhat and is now moving north-northeastward
near 24 kt. The hurricane is moving on the eastern side of a
mid-tropospheric cyclone centered off the northeastern U.S. coast.
Teddy should continue its north-northwestward motion today and then
turn north-northeastward as the mid-tropospheric cyclone shifts
northeastward. This will take post-tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia
and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days. The official
forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus, or
HFIP, and similar to the previous NHC track.

The wind field of Teddy should continue to expand today and
tonight, and the extent of 12-ft seas is also growing. See the
Key Message regarding swells due to Teddy.


Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late today through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain,
and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings
are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and
Newfoundland.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy
between today and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 38.4N 62.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 43.9N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/0600Z 52.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0600Z 61.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-22 08:53


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...TEDDY HEADED FOR ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 62.4W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 62.4 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday,
and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday,
Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near
and over Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-22 08:52


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 220850
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA
* NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 62.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..720NE 480SE 660SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 62.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 180NW.
34 KT...400NE 320SE 250SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 43.9N 62.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...320NE 290SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 210SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 52.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 170SE 190SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 190SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 61.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 200SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 62.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-09-22 05:57


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220555
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020

...TEDDY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 62.1W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 62.1 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday,
and then near or over Newfoundland later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy should begin to weaken tonight and Wednesday, and
become a strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From today through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-22 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 220248
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter found Teddy a little stronger
this evening. Flight level peak wind was 111 kt in the east
quadrant and the highest observed SFMR wind was 69 kt. A blend of
these data yields an initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory.

Teddy is accelerating toward the north in response to a mid- to
upper tropospheric mid-latitude trough approaching from the
northwest. Dynamic forcing produced by the aforementioned
baroclinic system and warm (27-28C) waters associated with the Gulf
Stream could induce a short period of strengthening during the
next few hours, or so. Through the remaining portion of the
forecast period, Teddy will traverse cooler oceanic temperatures
north of the Gulf Stream and lose its baroclinic support inducing a
gradual weakening trend as the post-tropical cyclone quickly moves
over eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland.
After that time, Teddy should become absorbed by a larger
non-tropical, high latitude low pressure system. There still
remains much uncertainty as to whether or not Teddy will complete
its extratropical transition prior to reaching Nova Scotia. The
global models show the cyclone merged or embedded in the baroclinic
zone, but the associated simulated infrared presentation shows
Teddy maintaining a rather small warm, inner core. Regardless of
it classification during that time, high winds, heavy rain, storm
surge and destructive waves are still predicted for the south coast
of Nova Scotia.

Teddy's horizontal wind profile is forecast to nearly double during
the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with
the aforementioned baroclinic system. Gale-force winds are likely
along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast United
States. The forecast wind radii at the 24 hour period and beyond
are based on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of a
bias-corrected average of the global and regional models.

Please see products from your local office for more
information about marine hazards, including extremely dangerous rip
currents expected over much of the western Atlantic beaches.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain,
and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings
are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and
Newfoundland.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy
between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 35.6N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 38.4N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 41.1N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 44.6N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 49.0N 58.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/1200Z 52.8N 54.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0000Z 58.1N 51.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-22 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220247
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TEDDY STRONGER...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 61.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Magdalen Islands
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 61.5 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected
overnight followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday.
Teddy should turn toward the north-northeast and move over eastern
Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late
Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Teddy could gain a little more strength
overnight, but should weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a
strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported
a minimum central pressure of 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-22 02:47


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 220245
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH
* NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 61.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 330SE 420SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 61.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 61.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.4N 62.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.
34 KT...410NE 320SE 280SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.1N 63.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...320NE 290SE 270SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.6N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...190NE 260SE 210SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 49.0N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 170SE 190SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 52.8N 54.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 58.1N 51.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...240NE 250SE 150SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 61.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-09-21 23:56


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212353
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...TEDDY ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 61.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 7 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Magdalen Islands
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 61.4 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this motion is expected
tonight followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy
should turn to the north-northeast and move over eastern Nova Scotia
on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wednesday into
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is expected to gain some strength overnight, but
weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical
cyclone before reaching Nova Scotia.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-conditions
could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-21 22:52


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212249 CCB
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 38...CORRECTED...
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

CORRECTED TO ADD PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND TO THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH SECTION

...TEDDY ABOUT TO GET LARGER AND STRONGER NORTH OF BERMUDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Magdalen Islands
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 62.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is
expected tonight followed by a turn to the north-northwest on
Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the north-northeast and move over
eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St.
Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken
steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone
before reaching Nova Scotia.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-conditions
could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-21 22:51


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 212248 CCB
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

CORRECTED TO ADD PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND TO THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH SECTION

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH
* NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 330SE 420SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.
34 KT...410NE 320SE 280SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.5N 63.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...410NE 320SE 280SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.2N 63.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 280SE 250SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 210SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 50.5N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 54.5N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 250SE 150SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 62.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-21 21:21


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212118 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 38...CORRECTED...
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...CORRECTED TO ADD PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND TO THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH SECTION...

...TEDDY ABOUT TO GET LARGER AND STRONGER NORTH OF BERMUDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Magdalen Islands
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
* Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 62.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is
expected tonight followed by a turn to the north-northwest on
Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the north-northeast and move over
eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St.
Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken
steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone
before reaching Nova Scotia.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-conditions
could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-21 21:20


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 212117 CCA
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

...CORRECTED TO ADD PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND TO THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH SECTION...

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH
* NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 330SE 420SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.
34 KT...410NE 320SE 280SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.5N 63.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...410NE 320SE 280SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.2N 63.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 280SE 250SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 210SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 50.5N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 54.5N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 250SE 150SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 62.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-21 20:52


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 212050
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

Teddy is gradually losing tropical characteristics with weaker deep
convection near the center and more convective asymmetry. The
initial wind speed is kept at 80 kt, assuming any decrease in
organization has been offset by the doubling of the forward speed
since the last advisory. Note that Dvorak estimates are likely to
underestimate the true maximum winds in this extratropical
transition situation.

The hurricane is now moving quickly northward as a mid-latitude
trough picks up the cyclone. All of the guidance show Teddy
strengthening overnight due to a baroclinic energy infusion from
this trough and increased instability from the warmer waters of the
Gulf Stream/North Atlantic. Afterward, Teddy should lose its
baroclinic forcing and move over cooler water late Tuesday, causing
weakening while it accelerates to the north-northeast across
eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland
before dissipating in 3-4 days. No significant changes were made to
the track forecast except for a westward shift beyond 48 hours.
While there is some uncertainty about the exact status of Teddy near
Nova Scotia, since much of the model guidance keeps the cyclone
with a warm core and some convection, it doesn't change the hazards
much with significant chances of high winds, heavy rain, storm
surge and destructive waves for the south coast of Nova Scotia.

Teddy's size will likely double during the next couple of days as
it moves northward and interacts with the aforementioned trough.
Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the near shore waters
of the northeast United States. Please see products from your local
office for more information about marine hazards, including
extremely dangerous rip currents expected over much of the western
Atlantic beaches.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain,
and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings
are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and
Newfoundland.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy
between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 33.2N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 36.5N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 39.5N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 42.2N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0600Z 50.5N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 54.5N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-21 20:50


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212048
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...TEDDY ABOUT TO GET LARGER AND STRONGER NORTH OF BERMUDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Magdalen Islands
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later tonight or on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 62.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is
expected tonight followed by a turn to the north-northwest on
Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the north-northeast and move over
eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St.
Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken
steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone
before reaching Nova Scotia.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-conditions
could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-21 20:49


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 212047
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH
* NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 330SE 420SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.
34 KT...410NE 320SE 280SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.5N 63.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...410NE 320SE 280SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.2N 63.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 280SE 250SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 210SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 50.5N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 140SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 54.5N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 250SE 150SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 62.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-21 18:01


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 211759
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR NOVA SCOTIA WHILE TEDDY
ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the south coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the northern coast of Nova Scotia from Meat Cove westward to
Digby, Prince Edward Island, the Magdalen Islands, and the southwest
coast of Newfoundland from Port aux Basques to Francois.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of Nova Scotia from Meat Cove to Digby
* Magdalen Islands
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
from satellite imagery and Bermuda radar near latitude 32.2 North,
longitude 62.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northeast
near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected to continue today, followed by a turn
toward the north tonight and north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy
should turn to the north-northeast and decelerate as it approaches
Nova Scotia on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken
steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-conditions
could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-21 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 211454
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

Teddy has weakened some since yesterday. While the maximum 700-mb
winds from the latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
mission were 93 kt, the peak SFMR values were only 68 kt. A blend of
these data with some undersampling due to the large size of Teddy
gives an initial wind speed of 80 kt.

The hurricane is beginning to accelerate to the north-northeast as
the long-awaited mid-latitude trough begins to pick up the cyclone.
All of the guidance is in very good agreement that Teddy will
benefit from this interaction, growing in both size and maximum
winds due to this trough and warmer waters in the Gulf Stream.
Thus, the hurricane should intensify overnight, and the new
intensity forecast is close to the latest GFS model. Afterward,
the baroclinic energy source is exhausted, and Teddy should move
north of the Gulf Stream by Wednesday, helping to complete its
post-tropical transition. The cyclone should weaken while it
accelerates to the north-northeast across eastern Nova Scotia, the
Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Newfoundland before dissipating in 3-4
days. No significant changes were made to the track forecast.

Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the next
couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the
aforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely along
portions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please see
products from your local office for more information about marine
hazards.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda today.
Wind gusts of tropical-storm-force have been reported on the
island, and tropical storm conditions could continue today.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of
direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy
rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between
Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 31.1N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 34.4N 62.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 38.2N 63.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 40.7N 64.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 43.7N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0000Z 47.5N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1200Z 51.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-21 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 211452
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...TEDDY'S HUGE WAVE FIELD EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 62.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 62.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north
overnight and north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the
north-northeast as it approaches Nova Scotia on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken
steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
today. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on
Tuesday afternoon in the watch area.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-21 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 211452
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO MAIN-A-DIEU NOVA SCOTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 62.7W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 330SE 390SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 62.7W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 63.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.4N 62.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.
50 KT...180NE 140SE 90SW 160NW.
34 KT...330NE 280SE 300SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.2N 63.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
50 KT...190NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
34 KT...390NE 330SE 310SW 310NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.7N 64.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...320NE 280SE 270SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.7N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 210SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 47.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 250SE 180SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 51.5N 55.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 300SE 180SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 62.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-21 11:54


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 211152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING TEDDY...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 63.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 63.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). Although some
fluctuations in heading are likely, the hurricane is expected to
move generally northward through Tuesday evening, followed by a turn
toward the northeast on Wednesday. The center of Teddy will pass
east of Bermuda today, and then approach Nova Scotia late Tuesday or
early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or
so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, but the cyclone
is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane Tuesday, then
become a strong post-tropical cyclone when it nears Nova Scotia by
Wednesday morning.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova
Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-21 08:45


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 210842
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

Where Teddy once had a ragged eye has now become a dry slot, an
indication that its eyewall is becoming less defined. Some
southwesterly shear and the fact that Teddy is beginning to move
over the cold wake of former Hurricane Paulette are probably
contributing to the degradation of Teddy's structure. Based on this
trend, the intensity estimate is lowered slightly to 85 kt. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Teddy later this morning and will give a better assessment of the
hurricane's winds. For now, little change was made to the NHC track
or intensity forecasts.

Teddy is beginning to interact with a large deep layer trough and
frontal system that will play a big role in its evolution during
the next couple of days. For the remainder of today, Teddy should
remain fairly distinct from the front, moving east and northeast of
Bermuda. As it begins to merge with that system on Tuesday, a
slight deflection toward the north-northwest is likely, and it is
possible Teddy could quickly become post-tropical if it merges with
the front at that time. The most recent ECMWF and GFS runs
suggest that Teddy will maintain a warm core a little longer than
than that as it moves over the Gulf Stream. Regardless of its exact
classification, once Teddy moves north of the Gulf Stream and over
much cooler waters, it is forecast to weaken below hurricane
strength and become extratropical. Even with a decrease in its
highest winds, Teddy will likely be producing a large area of
tropical-storm-force winds when it approaches Atlantic Canada in a
couple of days. After moving over Atlantic Canada, Teddy is expected
to accelerate northeastward and ahead of, and then merge with,
another mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest.

Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the next
couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the
aforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely along
portions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please see
products from your local office for more information about
marine hazards.

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been
reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are
encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda today.
Wind gusts near tropical-storm-force have been reported on
the island and tropical storm conditions could continue into Monday
evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of
direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy
rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between
Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 30.3N 63.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 32.6N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 36.7N 62.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 39.7N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 42.6N 63.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 23/1800Z 46.2N 61.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/0600Z 50.0N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-21 08:44


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210841
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...LARGE HURRICANE TEDDY NOW HEADING NORTH...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 63.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 63.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). Although some fluctuations in
heading are likely, the hurricane is expected to move generally
northward through Tuesday evening, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Wednesday. The center of Teddy will pass east of
Bermuda today and then approach Nova Scotia late Tuesday or early
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day
or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, but the
cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane
Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone when it nears
Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova
Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-21 08:44


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 210841
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO MAIN-A-DIEU NOVA SCOTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 63.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 330SE 390SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 63.2W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 63.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.6N 62.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 160SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.7N 62.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 180NW.
34 KT...320NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.7N 63.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 150NW.
34 KT...350NE 330SE 300SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.6N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...245NE 300SE 250SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 46.2N 61.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 200SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 50.0N 57.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 180SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 63.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-09-21 05:41


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210539
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 AM AST Mon Sep 21 2020

...LARGE HURRICANE TEDDY NOW HEADING NORTH...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 63.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
east from Canso to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 63.5 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). Although some fluctuations in
heading are likely, the hurricane is expected to move generally
northward through Tuesday evening, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Wednesday. The center of Teddy will pass east of
Bermuda today and then approach Nova Scotia late Tuesday or early
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible Monday night while
Teddy begins to interact with an approaching frontal system.
Although gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, the
cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane
Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone when it nears
Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km). NOAA buoy 41049, located about 150 miles (240 km)
south-southeast of the center of Teddy recently reported sustained
winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova
Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-21 02:53


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 210251
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

Teddy's satellite presentation has changed little during the
past several hours albeit some warming of the eye. The
53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters recorded a central
pressure this evening of 963 mb, unchanged from the previous
mission, and the Dvorak subjective intensity estimates haven't
changed either. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 90 kt
for this advisory.

There is a chance, within the next 24 hours, that Teddy could
strengthen a bit due to dynamic forcing as a result of the
approaching baroclinic zone moving off of the northeast coast of
the United States. In Fact, the HCCA intensity model shows a peak
of 95 kt at the 24 hour period. By Tuesday afternoon, however,
increasing southwesterly shear associated with the rapidly
approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough, from the northwest,
should induce weakening. Because Teddy is a very large and strong
tropical cyclone, only gradual weakening is predicted. By mid
period, the large-scale models agree that Teddy will merge with the
aforementioned trough and associated frontal zone and complete its
extratropical cyclone transition south of Nova Scotia Tuesday
evening. Teddy is still forecast to be a very large and powerful
extratropical cyclone as it approaches, Nova Scotia at that time.
Wind, rain, surf and storm surge hazards are expected to spread over
an extensive portion of Atlantic Canada mid-week.

The forecast wind radii at the 36 hour period and beyond, are based
on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of a
bias-corrected average of the global and regional models.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 5 kt.
The hurricane is likely to turn northward Monday morning and
continue in this general motion through Wednesday morning. Around
the 60 hour period, a turn north-northeastward is forecast ahead of
yet another mid-latitude pulse moving into eastern Canada. No
significant adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast and
it lies in between the surprisingly tightly clustered model
guidance.

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been
reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are
encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning
overnight and could continue into Monday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of
direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy
rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between
Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 29.4N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 30.9N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 38.5N 63.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 41.3N 64.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 48.6N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0000Z 57.4N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-21 02:53


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210251
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

...TEDDY TURNING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 63.6W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a northward
turn is expected Monday. This general motion should continue
through Tuesday evening. Teddy is approaching Bermuda from the
southeast, and the center should pass east of the island Monday
morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late
Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible Monday night while
Teddy begins to interact with an approaching frontal system.
Although gradual weakening is forecast to begin mid-week, the
cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane
Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday
morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
overnight and could continue into Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-21 02:53


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 210250
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO CANSO NOVA SCOTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 63.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..510NE 360SE 360SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 63.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 63.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 30.9N 63.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 160SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.5N 63.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
50 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.
34 KT...390NE 310SE 300SW 310NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.3N 64.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 280SE 280SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 210SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 48.6N 59.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 57.4N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 63.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-09-20 23:54


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 202352
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING TEDDY...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 63.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 63.4 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue for another couple days. Teddy is approaching
Bermuda from the southeast, and the center should pass east of the
island Monday morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova
Scotia late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the system is
expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Tuesday,
then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
later tonight and could continue into Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-20 20:58


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 202056
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

Satellite images show that Teddy is continuing to maintain a
central core, albeit eroded on the western side due to shear and
dry air. However, the latest microwave data show a more distinct
eye than conventional data would indicate, along with an open
eyewall. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt, pending Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data this evening.

The hurricane has turned north-northwestward and is likely to
turn northward tonight and north-northeastward tomorrow due to an
approaching large mid-latitude trough. By early Tuesday, the
cyclone should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates
around the same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday
ahead of yet another trough moving into from eastern Canada.
Track model guidance remains in very good agreement, and only a
slight westward adjustment was made to the forecast.

The global models are in excellent agreement on Teddy transitioning
into a large non-tropical low between Bermuda and Nova Scotia in
about 2 days. In many respects, the upcoming trough interaction
reminds me of an extratropical transition like Sandy 2012,
thankfully happening at a good distance from land, with the
GFS/ECMWF models showing pressures into the 940s tomorrow, a slight
increase in maximum winds, and a large increase in the size of the
tropical-storm-force winds. Beyond Tuesday, the hurricane should
become post-tropical near or south of Nova Scotia and be absorbed by
a larger extratropical low after day 4 to the northeast of
Newfoundland. Little change was made to the official forecast,
other than show a small increase tomorrow as the peak extratropical
forcing deepens the cyclone. It is still worth noting every model
has a rather large and strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia
in 2-3 days, with hazards that will extend a very long way from the
center.

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been
reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are
encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.

Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning
this evening and could continue into Monday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada
late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of
direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rain is
also expected across sections of Atlantic Canada.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 29.0N 63.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 30.1N 63.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 32.8N 62.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 36.9N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 40.0N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 42.7N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 46.0N 61.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/1800Z 54.5N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-20 20:57


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 202054
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 63.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Canso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 63.4 West. Teddy is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected tonight, and Teddy is then forecast to continue
generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track,
Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east
of the island Monday morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching
Nova Scotia late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the system is
expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Tuesday,
then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
tonight and could continue into Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to
produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with
isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic
Canada.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-20 20:57


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 202053
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO CANSO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO CANSO NOVA SCOTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 63.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..510NE 330SE 360SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 63.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.1N 63.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 160SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.8N 62.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.9N 63.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
50 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 180NW.
34 KT...400NE 300SE 300SW 350NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...160NE 110SE 120SW 140NW.
34 KT...340NE 280SE 270SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.7N 63.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...260NE 280SE 250SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 46.0N 61.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 240SE 160SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 54.5N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 63.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-20 17:53


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201751
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

...OUTER BANDS OF TEDDY SHOWING UP ON BERMUDA RADAR...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 63.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of
Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 63.1 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected tonight, and then Teddy is forecast to continue
generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track,
Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east
of the island Monday morning. Teddy should be approaching Nova
Scotia on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is expected to remain a large and powerful
hurricane through Monday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone
on Tuesday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
tonight and could continue into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-20 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 201455
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

The satellite signature of Teddy has degraded from an eye pattern
overnight into a central dense overcast this morning. Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the hurricane
has weakened, and the initial wind speed is set to 90 kt, perhaps
generously. The aircraft data does still show that Teddy remains a
large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward in the
northeastward quadrant to about 70 n mi.

While the forecast intensity does not change much over the next
couple of days, the hurricane should undergo significant changes
during that time. Teddy should not lose any more strength by late
today due to favorable positioning with an approaching trough, and
the gale-force winds should greatly expand due to this trough
interaction. In 2 or 3 days, after the system occludes and becomes
post-tropical, the cyclone should weaken because of a loss of
extratropical forcing while over the cooler water south of Nova
Scotia. Eventually Teddy will probably get absorbed by a larger
extratropical low around day 5. Model guidance is fairly tightly
packed around the official wind forecast, which leans on the global
models given the substantial extratropical contributions, plus or
minus 5 kt throughout the forecast period.

The hurricane has resumed a northwestward motion or 320/8 kt. Teddy
is likely to turn northward today and north-northeastward tomorrow
due to the aforementioned trough. By early Tuesday, the cyclone
should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates around the
same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday ahead of yet
another trough moving into from eastern Canada. Although the
forecast evolution is complex, model guidance is in remarkably good
agreement, and no substantial changes were made to the previous
forecast. Regardless of the details, every model has a rather large
and strong post-tropical cyclone south of Nova Scotia in about 3
days.


Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning
this evening and could continue into Monday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 28.3N 62.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 29.2N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 31.0N 62.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 41.7N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/1200Z 53.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1200Z 60.5N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-20 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

...TEDDY RESUMES A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING TONIGHT...
...RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 62.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of
Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 62.8 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected tonight and then Teddy is forecast to continue generally
northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will
approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east of the
island Monday morning. Teddy should be approaching Nova Scotia on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Teddy is
expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Monday,
then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Teddy remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
tonight and could continue into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-20 14:53


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 201449
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANANDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TEDDY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 62.8W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..510NE 270SE 420SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 62.8W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.2N 63.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 170SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.0N 62.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...350NE 270SE 290SW 310NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
50 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
34 KT...350NE 330SE 290SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...310NE 280SE 260SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...190NE 250SE 200SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 53.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 60.5N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 62.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-20 11:47


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201145
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

...TEDDY JOGS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
...SWELLS FROM TEDDY COULD GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN
ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 62.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 62.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a northwestward
motion will likely resume by this afternoon. A turn toward the north
is expected tonight and then Teddy is forecast to continue generally
northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will
approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east of the
island Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today.
Teddy is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through
Monday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda as
early as tonight and could linger into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-20 08:53


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200850
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

The convective structure of Teddy has degraded substantially since
the last advisory, with no sign of an eye in conventional satellite
imagery. The most recent available microwave imagery from last night
suggested that Teddy still had a very well defined low to mid-level
inner-core, but this has not translated to the higher levels more
apparent at night. Intensity estimates have decreased, so the
initial intensity has been lowered slightly to 100 kt for this
advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the hurricane later this morning and should
provide more information about its structure and strength.

Teddy's evolution for the next few days appears to be a tale of 3
troughs. Upper-level westerly flow associated with the first
upper-level trough, affecting the storm now, is the most likely
reason why the hurricane's structure has degraded and has taken on a
slightly sheared appearance. Teddy will begin to encounter the 2nd
trough, a deep frontal system approaching from the west, later today
and that should cause the hurricane to turn north. This interaction
should steer the center of Teddy east of Bermuda, but tropical storm
impacts from either the large hurricane, the frontal system, or both
are still likely Sunday evening through Monday night.

All indications are that Teddy will then continue generally
northward and merge with the frontal system, nearing Nova Scotia as
an extratropical cyclone early Wednesday. Teddy's maximum winds will
likely decrease sharply after it becomes post-tropical, as shown by
all the intensity guidance, but its gale and storm-force wind radii
will likely increase at the same time. The cyclone should turn
northeastward as the 3rd trough, another mid-latitude system,
approaches from the west. Teddy could be absorbed by that feature in
as soon as 120 h, though this is not explicitly shown in the
forecast at this time. The spread in the track and intensity
guidance is quite low and confidence in both aspects of the forecast
is high. There is a little more uncertainty in the wind radii
evolution, but it is clear that Teddy will produce strong winds over
a wide area of the northwest Atlantic during the next couple of
days.

The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy
continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells
caused by the hurricane.


Key Messages:

1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late
Sunday or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the
island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday
evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 28.0N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 28.9N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 30.4N 62.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 33.3N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 37.5N 62.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/0600Z 43.8N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0600Z 51.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0600Z 58.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-20 08:48


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200846
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

...TEDDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...
...SWELLS FROM TEDDY COULD GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN
ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 62.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 62.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
will likely continue this morning. A turn toward the north is
expected tonight and then Teddy is forecast to continue
generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track,
Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday night, and the center will
pass east of the island Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next day or two, but Teddy is expected to remain a large and
powerful hurricane through Monday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41049, located
about 80 miles south-southwest of the center of Teddy recently
reported sustained winds of 59 mph (95 km/h) and several gusts near
65 mph (105 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
as early as tonight and could linger into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-20 08:46


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200844
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..510NE 330SE 420SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 61.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.9N 62.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.4N 62.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 180SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.3N 62.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 230SE 250SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.5N 62.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT...365NE 300SE 270SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...350NE 300SE 250SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 43.8N 62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 300SE 250SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 51.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 58.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 62.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-09-20 05:50


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200548
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020

...SWELLS FROM TEDDY AFFECTING MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS...
...RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 61.6W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 61.6 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the north is
expected by tonight followed by a faster northward motion on Monday.
On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday night,
and the center will pass just east of the island Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected beginning later
today.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). Teddy's wind field is
likely to become even larger over the next few days. NOAA buoy
41049 recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a
gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) about 85 miles (137 km) west of the
center of Teddy.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
as early as tonight and could linger into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-20 02:56


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200254
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

Some convective cells have been developing within Teddy's large
outer eye, and it is possible that this convection is forming an
inner eyewall. In any event, observations from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have
decreased slightly, to near 100 kt. The hurricane is expected to
remain in a low shear environment until tomorrow evening, and to
more or less maintain its intensity for 12-24 hours. Thereafter,
increasing shear associated with an upper-level trough to the west
should cause weakening. Although the shear is predicted by the
global models to become fairly strong after 48 hours, the system
has a a very large and intense circulation so only slow weakening
is expected. By 72 hours, Teddy should merge with a frontal zone to
the east of New England and become a strong extratropical cyclone.
The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.

The system's wind field will likely become even larger as the wind
field of Teddy interacts within a high pressure system behind a cold
front during the next few days. This could prolong the period of
strong winds over Bermuda into Monday night.

Teddy continues on a general northwestward track or about 315/11 kt.
The hurricane should move on the western side of a subtropical high
pressure area for the next day or so, and then begin to accelerate
northward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough that develops
into a cutoff low off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days.
The interaction of Teddy with this low will likely result in a
slight leftward bend of the track around days 2-3. In 4-5 days,
post-tropical Teddy is likely to turn north-northeastward to
northeastward in the flow on the east side of a broad 500 mb trough.
The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus predictions.

The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy
continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells
caused by the hurricane.


Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the
island beginning Sunday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 27.3N 61.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 29.6N 63.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 31.6N 62.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 35.7N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 39.7N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 42.5N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0000Z 49.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0000Z 57.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-20 02:55


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200253
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
...CAUSING RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC
COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 61.2W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue into Sunday. A turn toward the north is
expected by Sunday night followed by a faster northward motion early
next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on
Sunday night, and the center will pass just east of the island
Monday morning.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is expected to begin Sunday
night.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). Teddy's wind field
is likely to become even larger over the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
beginning Sunday night and could linger into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east
coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic
Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-20 02:54


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200252
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 61.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT.......220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 390SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 61.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 60.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.6N 63.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.6N 62.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...260NE 220SE 180SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 35.7N 61.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...320NE 230SE 240SW 290NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.7N 62.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...170NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...350NE 330SE 270SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 42.5N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...350NE 310SE 250SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 49.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 57.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 61.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-09-19 23:50


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192348
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...LARGE TEDDY CAUSING RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN
ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 60.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 60.9 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue into early Sunday. A turn toward the north
or north-northeast is expected by Sunday evening, followed by a
faster northward motion early next week. On the forecast track,
Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday, and the center will pass just
east of the island Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is expected over the next
couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds
is forecast to begin early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to
increase substantially starting on Sunday night.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
beginning Sunday evening and could linger into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east
coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic
Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-19 20:37


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 192035
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

The earlier eyewall replacement cycle occuring in Teddy since last
night appears to have completed. There is now a more pronounced
outer ring of convection noted in satellite and microwave imagery,
and a large ragged eye is beginning to appear in the satellite
images. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
UW-CIMSS ADT support keeping the initial intensity at 105 kt. A
U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the hurricane later this evening.

There is no change to the forecast intensity and structure for
Teddy. The hurricane will be moving over slightly cooler waters
caused by upwelling from Paulette over the next 24h and this should
cause the hurricane to slowly weaken. However, in about 36 h as
the system passes east of Bermuda, the cyclone's wind field is
forecast to begin rapidly expanding as it interacts with an
approaching frontal system. By 48 h, vertical wind shear is expected
to dramatically increase as Teddy becomes embedded in the flow
around a sharp mid-latitude upper-level trough. The interaction of
the cyclone with both the front and trough should cause Teddy to
begin an extratropical transition, with this transition expected to
be completed by 72 h. This transition timing is in agreement with
the global models. Once this transition occurs, the post-tropical
cyclone is forecast to rapidly weaken, but is still expected to be
a powerful extratropical cyclone as it approaches Atlantic Canada
early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed
from the previous one and is near the SHIPS and HFIP corrected
consensus HCCA.

Teddy jogged a little west of track today, but the longer term
motion is still northwestward at about 11 kt. This motion is
expected to continue through most of the day Sunday. Teddy should
then turn northward to north-northeastward late Sunday as it
approaches a frontal system over the western Atlantic. This pattern
should steer the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane's
large wind field means that the island will still likely experience
tropical storm conditions beginning by Sunday evening and continuing
into Monday evening. A slight turn to the north then perhaps the
north- northwest with a faster forward motion should occur Monday
night into Tuesday as Teddy pivots around the upper trough. By
Tuesday night, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward as the
upper trough to its southwest begins to lift into the higher
latitudes.

Teddy is producing an extensive area of large waves and swells
which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the
Key Messages below.

Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the
island beginning Sunday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 26.7N 60.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 27.9N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 29.1N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 30.7N 62.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 33.6N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 38.3N 61.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 41.9N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z 47.7N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z 55.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-19 20:36


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...TEDDY EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST
WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 60.2W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 60.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north or
north-northeast is expected by Sunday evening, followed by a faster
northward motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy
will approach Bermuda on Sunday and the center will pass just east
of the island Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is expected over the next
couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds
is forecast to begin early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to
increase substantially starting on Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
beginning Sunday evening and could linger into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east
coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic
Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-19 20:36


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 192034
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 60.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT.......220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 270SE 360SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 60.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 27.9N 61.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.1N 62.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.7N 62.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.6N 61.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...320NE 230SE 240SW 290NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.3N 61.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...170NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...350NE 330SE 270SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 41.9N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...350NE 310SE 250SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 47.7N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 55.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 60.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-09-19 17:55


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191752
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY APPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...
...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST
WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 59.9W
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 59.9 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north or
north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a northward
motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will
approach Bermuda on Sunday and the center will pass just east of the
island late Sunday and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is expected over the next
couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds
is forecast to begin early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to
increase substantially starting on Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
beginning Sunday afternoon or evening and could linger through most
of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east
coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic
Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-19 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 191559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.09.2020

TROPICAL STORM IANOS ANALYSED POSITION : 35.4N 21.6E

ATCF IDENTIFIER : ME012020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2020 35.4N 21.6E WEAK
00UTC 20.09.2020 34.0N 23.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2020 32.7N 24.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.4N 30.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2020 36.4N 30.5W WEAK
00UTC 20.09.2020 35.6N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2020 34.9N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2020 33.9N 31.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2020 33.4N 29.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2020 34.8N 25.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.09.2020 35.1N 23.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2020 35.0N 21.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2020 35.3N 17.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.09.2020 35.6N 15.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2020 35.1N 11.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM BETA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2020 26.4N 92.3W MODERATE
00UTC 20.09.2020 26.4N 91.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2020 26.8N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2020 27.3N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2020 27.7N 94.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2020 28.6N 95.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2020 29.2N 96.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2020 29.2N 96.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2020 28.9N 95.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2020 29.1N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2020 30.7N 92.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2020 31.8N 92.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2020 32.5N 94.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM WILFRED ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 37.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL232020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2020 13.6N 37.5W WEAK
00UTC 20.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE TEDDY ANALYSED POSITION : 25.5N 58.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2020 25.5N 58.8W INTENSE
00UTC 20.09.2020 27.0N 60.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2020 28.2N 62.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2020 29.3N 63.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2020 30.8N 62.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.09.2020 35.0N 60.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.09.2020 39.7N 62.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2020 42.1N 64.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2020 45.3N 61.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 24.09.2020 49.8N 57.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 24.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 19.5N 118.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2020 18.8N 119.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2020 19.9N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2020 19.9N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2020 20.3N 126.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2020 19.8N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2020 19.7N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191559

>

2020-09-19 14:53


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 191450
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

The overall appearance of Teddy has degraded slightly since early
this morning, with the eye no longer readily apparent in satellite
imagery. However, microwave data a few hours ago showed that a well-
defined outer eyewall exists with a decaying partial inner eyewall.
This indicates that an eyewall replacement cycle is just about
complete. The objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates
generally agree on an intensity of 98-102 kt, but out of respect for
the completing eyewall replacement cycle the initial intensity is
set to a slightly more generous 105 kt.

Teddy will be moving over slightly cooler waters caused by upwelling
from Paulette over the next day or so and this should cause the
hurricane to slowly weaken. However, in about 36 h the cyclone's
wind field is forecast to begin expanding as it interacts with an
approaching frontal system. Around 48-60 h, vertical wind shear is
expected to dramatically increase as Teddy becomes embedded in the
flow around a sharp mid-latitude upper-level trough. The interaction
of the cyclone with both the front and trough should cause Teddy to
begin an extratropical transition, with the post-tropical cyclone
quickly weakening once the transition is complete. The SHIPS
guidance and global model simulated satellite imagery tend to agree
that the extratropical transition should be completed just after 72
h. The latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged downward slightly
mainly due to the change in the initial intensity, and is close to
the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

The hurricane continues its northwestward movement, now at 12 kt.
The track forecast for Teddy remains essentially unchanged and is in
the middle of tightly clustered guidance. Teddy is expected to turn
northward to north-northeastward Sunday morning as it approaches a
frontal system over the western Atlantic. This pattern should steer
the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane's large wind
field means that the island will still likely experience tropical
storm conditions beginning by Sunday evening and continuing through
much of Monday. A slight turn to the north then perhaps the north-
northwest should occur Monday night into Tuesday as Teddy pivots
around the upper trough. By Tuesday night, the cyclone is forecast
to turn northeastward as the upper trough to its southwest begins to
lift into the higher latitudes.

Teddy is producing an extensive area of large waves and swells
which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the
Key Messages below.

Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the
island beginning Sunday afternoon or evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 26.0N 59.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 28.8N 61.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 30.4N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 33.1N 61.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 37.1N 61.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 40.8N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 47.0N 59.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1200Z 52.9N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-19 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191450
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...HURRICANE TEDDY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING...
...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST
WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 59.0W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 59.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north or
north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a northward
motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will
approach Bermuda on Sunday and the center will pass just east of the
island late Sunday and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is expected over the next
couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds
is forecast to begin early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase
substantially starting on Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
beginning Sunday afternoon or evening and could linger through most
of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east
coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic
Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-19 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 191450
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 59.0W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 390SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 59.0W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 58.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.8N 61.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.4N 62.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.1N 61.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 220SE 220SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.1N 61.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...320NE 280SE 220SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.8N 61.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...350NE 290SE 250SW 280NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 47.0N 59.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 52.9N 51.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 59.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-09-19 11:44


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191141
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST
WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 58.5W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 58.5 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is likely on
Sunday, followed by a continued northward motion into early next
week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday
and move near or east of the island late Sunday and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today. A more
pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin on
Sunday, but the wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase
substantially at the same time.

Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 60 miles (95
km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up
to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda and
beginning Sunday afternoon or evening. These conditions may linger
through most of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells
from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United
States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-19 08:53


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190851
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

Teddy's satellite presentation has fluctuated through the early
morning; most recently the eye has cooled and become poorly defined.
GMI microwave imagery at 0350 UTC showed that Teddy was most of the
way through an eyewall replacement cycle, and this is probably why
its satellite appearance has degraded a little. AT 0600 UTC, a blend
of objective and subjective intensity estimates still supported an
intensity of 115 kt, but given recent trends noted in satellite
imagery, the intensity is set at 110 kt for the advisory.

Little change was made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both
of which remain near the model consensus throughout the forecast
period. Teddy will likely turn northward by early Sunday as it
approaches a frontal system over the western Atlantic. This should
steer the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane's large
wind field means that the island will still likely experience some
tropical storm conditions begining Sunday afternoon or evening and
continuing well into Monday. Fluctuations in intensity are likely
through this period, but these fluctuations will have no impact on
the overall size of Teddy's wind field, which is forecast to
increase markedly, especially once it begins extratropical
transition (ET).

The ET process could begin as soon as Monday, and based on GFS and
ECMWF model fields, it should be complete in a little more than 72
h. A rapid decrease in Teddy's max winds is expected after it
becomes post-tropical, but the cyclone's wind field could actually
expand further. The NHC forecast implies a due northward motion
until the center of Teddy moves near Nova Scotia in about 4 days,
but the cyclone's interaction with a cut-off low and a building
ridge to the east of the cyclone could deflect it a little to the
left between 72 and 96 h. A turn toward the northeast is expected by
the end of the forecast as Teddy interacts with another mid-latitude
trough approaching from the northwest.

Teddy an extensive area of large waves and swells which are
impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the Key Messages
below.


Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, Tropical Storm conditions are still likely
for the island and its nearby waters beginning Sunday afternoon or
evening. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the
weekend.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 24.9N 58.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 26.3N 59.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 28.0N 61.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 29.5N 62.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 31.6N 61.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 35.2N 61.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 39.2N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 45.5N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0600Z 51.5N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-19 08:52


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA AND NEARBY WATERS...
...LARGE SWELLS THAT CAN CAUSE RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MOST
WESTERN ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 58.2W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 58.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is likely on
Sunday, followed by a continued northward motion into early next
week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday
and move near or east of the island late Sunday and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today. A more
pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin on
Sunday, but the wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase
substantially at the same time.

Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 60 miles (95
km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect
Bermuda and the nearby waters beginning Sunday afternoon or
evening. These conditions may linger through most of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells
from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United
States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-19 08:52


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190849
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 58.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 300SE 390SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 58.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 57.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.3N 59.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.0N 61.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N 62.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.6N 61.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 170SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.2N 61.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT...300NE 250SE 200SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 61.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.
34 KT...350NE 250SE 250SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 45.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 51.5N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 58.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-09-19 05:38


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190535
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 57.7W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 57.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a turn toward
the north late Sunday. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach
Bermuda on Sunday and move near or east of the island late Sunday
and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to begin on
Sunday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger
throughout most of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells
from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United
States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-19 03:01


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190259
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

Teddy continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite
images with a fairly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast, although
recent images show some warming of the cloud tops over the
southeastern part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is
well-defined over the northern semicircle of the hurricane and
not as strong to the south. Earlier microwave images showed a
concentric eyewall structure and it appears that the hurricane has
re-intensified slightly over the past several hours. The current
intensity estimate is set at 115 kt which is a blend of subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates. Some additional fluctuations in
strength as a result of eyewall replacements could occur through
Saturday. On Sunday and beyond, a less conducive oceanic and
atmospheric environment should lead to slow weakening. However,
Teddy should remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days.
The numerical guidance shows that the circulation will become even
larger during the forecast period due to Teddy combined with a
high pressure area coming behind a cold front over the eastern
United States. Teddy is expected to make the transition to an
extratropical cyclone when it moves into Atlantic Canada.

The hurricane continues its northwestward trek and is moving around
325/11 kt. Teddy should move around the western side of a
subtropical high pressure system for the next day or so. Then, the
cyclone should turn northward with an increase in forward speed as
it approaches a strong mid-latitude trough cutting off into a low
as it moves off the northeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The track
of the system could bend a bit the left as it interacts with the
trough/low while approaching Nova Scotia. Around the end of the
forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn
northeastward as it moves along the eastern side of a mid-level
trough. The official track forecast is close to the corrected model
consensus.

Teddy is producing seas to 48 feet and an extensive area of large
waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic
basin. See the Key Messages below.


Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the
weekend.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 24.0N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 29.0N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 30.8N 62.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 33.5N 61.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 37.7N 61.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 45.5N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0000Z 50.5N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-19 02:59


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190257
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 57.4W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 57.4 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a
turn toward the north late this weekend. On the forecast track,
Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
likely through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to
begin on Sunday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger
throughout most of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-19 02:58


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190256
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.4W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 270SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.4W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 57.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 61.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.8N 62.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.5N 61.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N 61.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.
34 KT...310NE 230SE 220SW 290NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 45.5N 62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 50.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 57.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-09-18 23:47


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182345
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY CHURNING OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 57.0W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 57.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track,
Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected
through Saturday, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin late
this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.08 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger
throughout most of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-18 20:58


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 182056
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

Both NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Teddy since this morning. The highest flight level
wind measured by the aircraft was 119 kt at 750 mb, which reduces to
around 101 kt at the surface. The latest central measured by the
aircraft is up 4 mb from the previous advisory, indicating only some
slight weakening. Earlier microwave images indicated that an eyewall
replacement cycle had been taking place and some drier air had
intruded into the southern portion of the circulation, leaving a
partial break in the eyewall. This may explain the reason why the
aircraft have not been finding winds as strong as they did
previously, and in fact found a double wind maxima in the northern
portion of the circulation. These eyewall replacement cycles are
common in intense tropical cyclones, and oftentimes the systems
recover within 12-24 h as long as the environmental conditions
support it. Over the past hour or so, the ring of deep convection
has appeared less broken and is beginning to expand in size, which
could be an indication that the hurricane is recovering from the
eyewall replacement. Based on the possibility of some undersampling
by the aircraft, the increase of only 4 mb in central pressure, and
the latest convective trends, the initial intensity is being lowered
only slightly to 110 kt.

Teddy continues its long trek northwestward, now at 12 kt. The
hurricane is expected to remain on that general course during the
next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely
be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is
forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the
northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to
cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach
Nova Scotia in about 4 days. The models continue to be in good
agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to
the previous forecast track.

The environment around Teddy will be conducive for maintaining an
intense hurricane for the next 24 h or so, as the ocean
temperatures will remain warm with low vertical wind shear and a
fairly moist atmosphere. After 24 h, the hurricane is forecast to
cross cooler waters churned up by Paulette last week. This should
cause a slow weakening trend to begin. By Monday night, vertical
wind shear is expected to drastically increase ahead of an
approaching mid-latitude trough. This should not only weaken
Teddy, but begin its transition to a large extratropical cyclone,
and that transition should be completed around day 4 of the forecast
period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near or a little above
HCCA and IVCN through 24 h, and then trends toward the SHIPS
intensity guidance thereafter.

Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximum
seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45
feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key
Messages below.

Key Messages:

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the
weekend.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 23.1N 57.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 26.5N 59.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 28.1N 61.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 29.7N 62.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 31.8N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 35.6N 61.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 43.2N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1800Z 48.5N 59.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-18 20:58


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182056
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AS MAJOR HURRICANE
TEDDY CONTINUES TO HEAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 57.0W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 795 MI...1275 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 57.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track,
Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or Monday.

NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported
that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205
km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength
are expected through Saturday, and a weakening trend is forecast to
begin late this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 951 mb
(28.08 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger
throughout most of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the northeastern coast of South America, the Greater
Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States by Saturday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-18 20:58


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 182056
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 57.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 270SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 57.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 56.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 59.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.1N 61.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.7N 62.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.8N 62.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.6N 61.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.
34 KT...310NE 230SE 220SW 290NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 43.2N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 48.5N 59.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 57.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-09-18 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181450
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

There was little change to the structure of Teddy since early this
morning up until the past hour or so, when the eye began to
fill in slightly while the cloud tops over the southern portion of
the circulation warmed a bit. However, new convection with very
cold cloud tops near -80 degrees C have developed recently over
the northwestern quadrant, so the cyclone could just be undergoing
a temporary intensity fluctuation that typically occurs in powerful
hurricanes. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates range from 102 kt
to 116 kt, and the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt for
this advisory. There will be staggered NOAA and U.S. Air Force
Reserve Hunter aircraft investigating Teddy starting this morning
and continuing into the late afternoon, so they will soon be able to
provide updated details on the latest structure, size, and intensity
of the hurricane.

The major hurricane continues to move northwestward, now at 10 kt.
Teddy is expected to remain on that general course during the next
couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely
be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is
forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the
northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to
cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach
Nova Scotia in 4 to 5 days. The models continue to be in good
agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to
the previous forecast track.

Teddy will likely fluctuate in intensity over the next day or so
while it remains in favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm
waters, and a fairly moist air mass. By late this weekend, the
hurricane is forecast to traverse over cooler waters churned up by
Paulette last week. This should cause a weakening trend to begin.
By Monday night, vertical wind shear is expected to drastically
increase ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough. This should
not only weaken Teddy, but begin its transition to a large
extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed
before the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus aid HCCA through 36
h, and then trends toward the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance
thereafter.

Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximum
seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45
feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key
Messages below.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near
the island are not yet known, there is a risk strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda, and watches may be issued
later today or tonight.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the southeastern United States during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 22.1N 56.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 23.3N 57.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 27.1N 60.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 30.7N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 33.7N 62.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 41.4N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 46.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-18 14:41


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181439
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

...POWERFUL TEDDY CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 56.1W
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy. Watches
may be required for Bermuda later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 56.1 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track,
Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected
during the next day or so, and a weakening trend is forecast to
begin late this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-18 14:41


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 181439
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. WATCHES
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 56.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 56.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 55.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.3N 57.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.1N 60.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.7N 62.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.7N 62.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 170SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 41.4N 62.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 46.8N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 56.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-09-18 08:38


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180835
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

Teddy remains a powerful category 4 hurricane with a well-defined
eye and intense eyewall. There have been occasional dry slots
that have eroded some of the convection in the eyewall and rain
bands, but these seem to be transient. The satellite intensity
estimates currently range from 90 kt to 128 kt, and based on a
blend of that data, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt for this
advisory.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 11 kt. Teddy is expected to
continue moving northwestward at about the same forward speed during
the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of
a subtropical high pressure system. By the end of the weekend, when
Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or
north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough
moves closer to the system. However, the trough is expected to cut
off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left early next week and
approach Atlantic Canada in 4 to 5 days. The models are in fairly
good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC
track prediction.

The major hurricane will likely maintain its intensity, or
fluctuate in strength, during the next day or so while it remains
in generally favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm waters,
and a fairly moist air mass. However, the intensity models all
show a slow weakening trend after that likely due to Teddy tracking
over the cool SST wake left behind from Paulette and an increase in
shear by early next week. Teddy is now forecast to transition to
a powerful extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast
period based on the global model guidance. The NHC intensity
forecast lies near the high end of the guidance envelope, in best
agreement with the LGEM dynamical-statistical model.

Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas
estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are around 40
feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see
Key Messages below.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near
the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the southeastern United States during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 21.6N 55.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 24.7N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 26.6N 59.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 28.2N 61.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 29.8N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 32.2N 62.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 39.7N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 46.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-09-18 08:37


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180835
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

...TEDDY REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 55.4W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 55.4 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
turn to the north by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected
during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-09-18 08:37


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180834
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 55.4W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 55.4W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 55.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.7N 58.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.6N 59.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.2N 61.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.8N 62.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.2N 62.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 170SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 39.7N 61.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 46.0N 62.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 55.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-09-18 04:01


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 180359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 18.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICKY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 39.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL212020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 20.8N 39.3W 1012 24
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM IANOS ANALYSED POSITION : 37.9N 20.3E

ATCF IDENTIFIER : ME012020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 37.9N 20.3E 991 52
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 38.3N 20.7E 997 46
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 37.6N 21.2E 1004 34
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 36.4N 20.7E 1005 31
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 34.7N 21.4E 1005 35
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 33.6N 22.1E 1005 33
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 31.4N 23.0E 1008 28
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 29.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 11.5N 29.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 13.1N 30.7W 1011 24
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 37.2N 13.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 37.2N 13.2W 1001 31
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 39.1N 10.8W 1003 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 159.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP932020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 12.5N 159.2W 1008 25
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63

HURRICANE TEDDY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 54.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 20.6N 54.4W 949 79
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 21.9N 56.0W 948 76
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.6N 57.4W 943 84
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.6N 59.3W 943 81
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 27.2N 61.0W 935 86
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 28.4N 62.8W 943 80
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 29.2N 63.5W 942 82
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 30.6N 62.3W 931 87
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 35.0N 60.7W 933 81
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 40.1N 62.3W 929 80
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 42.1N 65.0W 945 61
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 43.5N 64.5W 966 43
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 46.0N 63.4W 980 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 36.7N 30.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 36.7N 30.9W 1007 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 35.5N 30.5W 1008 32
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 34.8N 31.4W 1008 34
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 34.3N 31.4W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 34.2N 31.9W 1009 30
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 34.4N 31.9W 1011 28
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 34.7N 31.9W 1016 26
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 17.5N 114.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 17.8N 116.3W 1004 29
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 18.0N 116.9W 1004 32
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 18.1N 117.7W 1002 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180359

>

2020-09-18 02:40


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180237
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

After a significant strengthening episode this afternoon, Teddy is
maintaining Category Four intensity. Observations from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission into the
hurricane this evening indicate that the maximum winds remain near
120 kt. Since Teddy should remain in a low-shear environment for
the next day or so, additional strengthening could occur on Friday.
An upper-level cyclone seen in water vapor images to the southeast
of Bermuda and the cool wake of previous Hurricane Paulette could
impede strengthening in a couple of days. However, Teddy is likely
to remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next 72 hours,
including the time it passes closest to Bermuda. Some fluctuations
in strength due to eyewall replacements are possible during that
period.

The hurricane has continued to move northwestward, or around 315/10
kt. Teddy should move along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level high during the next 2-3 days, and then turn northward
around days 3-4 while moving through a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. Around the end of the forecast period, Teddy will probably
interact with a deep mid-tropospheric cyclone in the vicinity of
Nova Scotia. This interaction will probably cause Teddy to bend
somewhat toward the left around day 5, but there is significant
uncertainty in the details of the track at that forecast time
range. It is also possible that the system will be losing
tropical characteristics by the end of the period, but this
remains to be seen.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near
the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 20.9N 54.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 22.1N 55.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 23.8N 57.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 25.6N 58.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 27.4N 60.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 29.0N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 30.7N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 36.9N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 44.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-18 02:39


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180236
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 54.7W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 54.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
through Friday, with a weakening trend likely to begin this
weekend.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-18 02:39


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180236
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 54.7W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 54.7W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 54.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.1N 55.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.8N 57.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.6N 58.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.4N 60.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 62.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.7N 63.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N 62.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 44.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 54.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-09-17 21:00


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 172058
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

Teddy has intensified quickly today, with the cyclone now having a
more symmetrical appearance while the eye has become mostly clear.
The deep convection with cloud tops ranging from -60 to -75 degrees
have surrounded the eye for much of the day, and there are
well-defined outflow channels to the south and east of the
hurricane. Both NOAA and US Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft have spent time investigating Teddy today as it has been
intensifying and have been able to provide very useful data in
determining both the size and strength of the hurricane. The peak
SFMR winds measured by the aircraft this afternoon were 113 kt,
while the peak 700 mb flight-level winds were 130 kt. Based on a
reduction to 117 kt from 700 mb, and assuming some slight
undersampling may be occurring, the initial intensity has been
raised to 120 kt.

The hurricane is expected to remain in an environment of
low-moderate shear while over warm waters for the 48 h or so. And
since the period of rapid strengthening of Teddy appears to be
ongoing, the hurricane is expected to strengthen some more into
tonight. Once this round of intensification completes, there will
likely be some fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement
cycles and other short term changes in structure. After 48 h, the
path of Teddy should take it over some cooler waters caused by
upwelling from Hurricane Paulette last week. This should cause the
cyclone to slowly weaken. By 96 h, vertical wind shear is forecast
to increase ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and
associated frontal boundary. This should hasten the weakening trend
of Teddy. By 120 h, the hurricane is expected to have crossed the 26
degree SST isotherm, and will begin to interact with the
aforementioned mid-latitude system causing it to begin an
extratropical transition that may or may not be completed by the end
of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been
increased due to the higher initial intensity, and the forecast
trends fit well with the various intensity consensus and SHIPS
guidance.

Teddy continues its northwestward motion, now at 11 kt. The track
guidance is in very good agreement on a continuation of this motion
for the next 72 h as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge
over the central Atlantic. The model guidance has come into better
agreement on the evolution of the large scale features later on in
the forecast period as the hurricane is expected to recurve ahead of
the approaching mid-latitude trough moving off the coast of the
eastern United States in a few days. The new NHC track forecast is
little changed from the previous one, and is in the middle of the
track guidance. On the forecast track, Teddy will make its closest
approach to Bermuda Sunday night into Monday.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near
the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 20.1N 54.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 21.2N 55.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 26.3N 59.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 28.0N 62.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 33.9N 63.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-17 21:00


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 172058
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

...TEDDY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
strengthening is expected tonight, and some fluctuations in
intensity are possible Friday and Saturday. A weakening trend is
expected to begin late this weekend.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-17 20:57


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 172055
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 54.1W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 54.1W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 53.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.2N 55.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.3N 59.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.0N 62.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.9N 63.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 54.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-09-17 15:05


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 171502 CCA
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 21...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

Corrected to add Key Messages

Since the previous advisory, Teddy's satellite appearance has
steadily improved. There is now a ragged warming eye surrounded by a
ring of convection with cloud tops colder than -60 degrees C. Very
recently the objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS
have been rapidly increasing. And although a blend of the 1130 and
1200 UTC Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively,
averaged out to an intensity of about 95 kt, the improved satellite
presentation since that time suggests that the hurricane should have
winds of at least 105 kt, which is the initial intensity for this
advisory, which could even be a little conservative based on the
latest UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON values of 120 and 111 kt,
respectively. There will be NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft inside Teddy later today, which should provide much
more detail on the structure and intensity of Teddy.

The only negative factor for intensification during the next 24 h is
about 10 to 15 kt of vertical wind shear. However, Teddy has been
able to begin the latest burst of intensification despite that
shear. Therefore additional strengthening is anticipated through
this evening, and Teddy is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane
by tonight. The overall environment does not change significantly
for the next couple of days, so other than some fluctuations
intensity such as due to potential eyewall replacement cycles, no
change in strength is indicated during that time. As Teddy continues
moving northwest over the weekend, it is likely to begin to
encounter some of the cooler waters upwelled by Hurricane Paulette
last week. This could cause the cyclone to slowly weaken. By late
this weekend, increasing vertical wind shear should also contribute
to weakening. Due to the fast increase in intensity this morning,
the latest NHC intensity is a bit higher than all of the guidance
for the first 48 h, but the overall intensity trends are closely
mirrored by the various multi-model consensus. Beyond 48 h, the NHC
forecast closely follows the LGEM guidance.

Teddy continues to move northwestward at 10 kt. The track
forecast and reasoning both remain straightforward and unchanged for
the next 72 h. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent
agreement that a deep-layer ridge situated over the central Atlantic
will force Teddy on a northwestward track toward the western
Atlantic. There is a little less divergence among the models on
days 4 and 5 then on previous cycles, and these differences are
due to timing differences in where and how fast the hurricane
begins to recurve ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and
frontal system moving off the coast of the eastern United States in
about 3 days. The new NHC track forecast is little changed from
the previous one, and is in the middle of the tightly clustered
track guidance. On the forecast track, Teddy will make its closest
approach to Bermuda on Monday.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near
the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.

2. Swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 19.3N 53.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 20.4N 54.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 32.4N 63.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 38.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-17 15:02


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 171500
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

Since the previous advisory, Teddy's satellite appearance has
steadily improved. There is now a ragged warming eye surrounded by a
ring of convection with cloud tops colder than -60 degrees C. Very
recently the objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS
have been rapidly increasing. And although a blend of the 1130 and
1200 UTC Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively,
averaged out to an intensity of about 95 kt, the improved satellite
presentation since that time suggests that the hurricane should have
winds of at least 105 kt, which is the initial intensity for this
advisory, which could even be a little conservative based on the
latest UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON values of 120 and 111 kt,
respectively. There will be NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft inside Teddy later today, which should provide much
more detail on the structure and intensity of Teddy.

The only negative factor for intensification during the next 24 h is
about 10 to 15 kt of vertical wind shear. However, Teddy has been
able to begin the latest burst of intensification despite that
shear. Therefore additional strengthening is anticipated through
this evening, and Teddy is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane
by tonight. The overall environment does not change significantly
for the next copule of days, so other than some fluctuations
intensity such as due to potential eyewall replacement cycles, no
change in strength is indicated during that time. As Teddy continues
moving northwest over the weekend, it is likely to begin to
encounter some of the cooler waters upwelled by Hurricane Paulette
last week. This could cause the cyclone to slowly weaken. By late
this weekend, increasing vertical wind shear should also contribute
to weakening. Due to the fast increase in intensity this morning,
the latest NHC intensity is a bit higher than all of the guidance
for the first 48 h, but the overall intensity trends are closely
mirrored by the various multi-model consensus. Beyond 48 h, the NHC
forecast closely follows the LGEM guidance.

Teddy continues to move northwestward at 10 kt. The track
forecast and reasoning both remain straightforward and unchanged for
the next 72 h. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent
agreement that a deep-layer ridge situated over the central Atlantic
will force Teddy on a northwestward track toward the western
Atlantic. There is a little less divergence among the models on
days 4 and 5 then on previous cycles, and these differences are
due to timing differences in where and how fast the hurricane
begins to recurve ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and
frontal system moving off the coast of the eastern United States in
about 3 days. The new NHC track forecast is little changed from
the previous one, and is in the middle of the tightly clustered
track guidance. On the forecast track, Teddy will make its closest
approach to Bermuda on Monday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 19.3N 53.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 20.4N 54.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 32.4N 63.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 38.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-17 15:02


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 171500
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

...TEDDY BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 53.0W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1155 MI...1865 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 53.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
through tonight. A slow weakening trend is expected to begin over
the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-17 14:59


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 171455
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
1500 UTC THU SEP 17 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 53.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......220NE 100SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 53.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 52.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.4N 54.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 32.4N 63.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 38.9N 62.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 53.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-09-17 11:32


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 171130 RRA
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 52.3W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......220NE 100SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 52.3W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.9N 54.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.3N 58.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 27.6N 62.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 30.7N 64.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 36.0N 62.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 52.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-09-17 08:56


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 170854
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

Several passive microwave overpasses have revealed that Teddy has
developed a 25-nmi-wide closed eye, while GOES-16 infrared
satellite data shows significant cooling of the cloud tops
surrounding a ragged eye feature. As a result, satellite intensity
estimates have increased, thus Teddy's intensity has been increased
to 90 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T5.0/90 kt from SAB
and a recent UW-CIMSS adjusted-ADT value of T5.7/105 kt.

The initial motion estimate based on the microwave satellite fixes
is 305/10 kt. As described in previous discussions, the track
forecast and reasoning both remain straightforward and unchanged for
the next 72 h. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent
agreement that a deep-layer ridge situated over the central Atlantic
will force Teddy on a northwestward track toward the western
Atlantic. There is a little less divergence among the models on
days 4 and 5 then on previous runs, and this difference remains
related timing differences on where and how fast the hurricane
begins to recurve ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and
frontal system moving off the coast of the eastern United States in
about 3 days. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous
advisory track now that it appears that the models have settled
down, and lies close to the consensus models TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE.

The overall environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
Teddy to continue to at least gradually strengthen for the next
36-48 hours. However, with sea-surface temperatures expected to be
near 30 deg C in 48-72 hours when the vertical shear is going to be
near zero, the intensity forecast at that time could be too low. For
now, the official intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the
guidance envelope, and shows Teddy's intensity leveling off after 36
hours due to the very dry environment that the hurricane will be
moving through, which could disrupt the inner-core convective
pattern and eye feature.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 18.3N 52.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 19.5N 53.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 20.9N 54.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 22.5N 56.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 24.3N 58.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 27.6N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 30.7N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 36.0N 62.9W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-09-17 08:50


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170848
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

...TEDDY STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 52.3W
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 52.3 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane Thursday night or
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-09-17 08:50


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170848
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 52.3W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......220NE 100SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 52.3W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.9N 54.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.3N 58.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 27.6N 62.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 30.7N 64.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 36.0N 62.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 52.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-09-17 02:45


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 170243
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy has been a perplexing hurricane thus far. The infrared
satellite presentation appears rather impressive, with the center
embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast with cloud tops as cold
as -85 degrees Celsius. Despite the presentation, however, Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T4.5/77 kt, and
objective estimates range between 70-75 kt. Teddy's initial
intensity is therefore set just above these estimates at 80 kt.

A recent ASCAT pass indicated that Teddy's center is a little
farther to the southwest than previously estimated. However, the
long-term motion remains toward the northwest (315/11 kt). The
track forecast remains straightforward the the next 3 days, with
the guidance in good agreement that a mid-tropospheric high over
the central Atlantic will drive the hurricane northwestward toward
the western Atlantic. There is a little more spread among the
track models on days 4 and 5, related to timing differences on
exactly where and how fast Teddy begins to recurve ahead of an
approaching mid-latitude trough coming from the northeastern United
States. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward during
the first 3 days to account for the initial position adjustment,
but otherwise it's still close to the previous prediction even with
the increasing model spread on days 4 and 5.

An upper-level trough situated to the northwest of Teddy is causing
about 10-15 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear over the
hurricane, and some model analyses suggest that there could be
stronger shear in a layer below the level of the upper-level
outflow. The deep-layer shear is expected to increase a bit during
the next day or so, but this should be offset by a favorable
thermodynamic environment, allowing for some intensification during
that time. The shear might relax by days 3 and 4, but then the
thermodynamic environment becomes a little less conducive for
strengthening. In particular, Teddy may move over the cold wake
of Hurricane Paulette, and the SHIPS guidance indicates that
relatively warm upper-level temperatures could be a negative
factor. All that said, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the
top end of the guidance envelope, showing Teddy peaking in
intensity in a couple of days and then only gradually weakening
through the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 17.8N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 20.3N 54.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 25.3N 59.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 27.0N 61.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 30.0N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 35.0N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-17 02:45


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170243
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...TEDDY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 51.5W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 51.5 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Teddy could become a major hurricane Thursday night or Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-17 02:45


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170242
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 51.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......220NE 100SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 51.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 51.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.3N 54.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.3N 59.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.0N 61.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 30.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 35.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 51.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2020-09-16 20:54


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 162052
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Recent satellite imagery is suggesting that Teddy is undergoing some
westerly vertical wind shear, as indicated by outflow being more
limited in the western portion of the circulation. The latest
UW-CIMSS shear analysis suggests the magnitude of this shear could
be about 10-15 kt, which could help to explain the lack of increase
in organization of the cyclone today. The most recent Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates provided CI values of 4.5-5.0,
indicating that the initial intensity is still around 85 kt.

The environmental conditions are not forecast to change much for
Teddy over the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to move
over warm waters within a somewhat dry atmospheric environment,
while moderate shear is expected to continue due to an upper trough
to its northwest. Based on these only somewhat favorable conditions
for strengthening, along with what we have witnessed with the lack
of intensification today, the NHC intensity forecast over the next
few days is being lowered. Beyond day 3, there is evidence to
suggest that Teddy may move over some cooler waters due to upwelling
caused by Paulette. And, by day 4 global models are forecasting a
further increase in vertical wind shear. These two factors should
cause the cyclone to weaken late in the forecast period. This
updated intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP
corrected consensus, HCCA.

Teddy is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. This motion is
forecast to continue for the next few days, as the cyclone is
steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Late in the
forecast period, the portion of the ridge north of Teddy is expected
to erode as a mid-latitude trough digs across the northeastern
United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn
north-northwest and possibly north by day 5. The track guidance is
tightly clustered through day 3, but increases quite a bit after
that time, likely due to how the models are handling the approaching
trough. The latest GFS delays a turn and shows a more westerly
track, with the cyclone southwest of Bermuda by day 5, while the
rest of the global models turn the system north sooner and take the
system just east of Bermuda. The NHC track forecast is close to the
previous one and is near the various multi-model track consensus
aids. On the forecast track, Teddy could make a close to approach to
Bermuda in about 5 days. However, based on the model spread at that
time frame and average track error of about 200 n mi at 120 h, it
is certainly too soon to know what impacts Teddy may have on the
island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 17.5N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 18.6N 52.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 20.0N 53.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 21.5N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 23.0N 56.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 24.8N 58.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 26.5N 60.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-16 20:53


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 162051
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...TEDDY TAKES A BREAK FROM STRENGTHENING TODAY BUT IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY MORE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 50.8W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 50.8 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or
so, and Teddy is expected become a major hurricane during that time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by
Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-16 20:53


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 162050
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 50.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......190NE 100SE 70SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 50.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 50.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.6N 52.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 110SE 70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 53.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 54.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 56.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.8N 58.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 60.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 50.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-09-16 14:39


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 161437
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy's overall appearance has changed little over the past several
hours. Microwave and infrared satellite images depict a
well-defined inner core with an eye evident in the microwave
imagery. However, visible imagery reveals that the eye remains
cloud filled. Over the past few hours, the coldest cloud tops and
have become confined to the western portion of the circulation,
which could be the early signs of the cyclone experiencing some
westerly wind shear. The latest satellite intensity estimates
remain unchanged from 6 h ago, and therefore the initial intensity
will remain 85 kt.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
strengthening over the next 18-24 h, and with the inner-core well
defined, rapid intensification could resume shortly. By 36 h,
increasing westerly wind shear and drier air should limit any
further intensification, and possibly induce some weakening. Later
on in the forecast period, Teddy could encounter some cooler waters
due to upwelling caused by Paulette. This could also attribute to
additional weakening. The latest NHC forecast is largely unchanged
from the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance. It
should be noted that if the rapid intensification that has paused
recently doe not resume soon, adjustments to the intensity forecast
will be necessary.

Teddy continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. This motion is
forecast to continue for the next few days, as the cyclone is
steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Late in
the forecast period, the portion of the ridge north of Teddy is
expected to erode as a mid-latitude trough digs across the
northeastern United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone
to turn north-northwest and possibly north by day 5. The track
guidance is tightly clustered through day 3, then the spread
increases after that time, likely due to how the models are
handling the approaching trough. The NHC track forecast is close to
the previous one and is near the various multi-model track
consensus aids. On the forecast track, Teddy could make a close to
approach to Bermuda in about 5 days. However, based on average
5-day track and intensity errors, it is too soon to know what type
of impacts the cyclone could have on the island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.5N 49.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.5N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.0N 52.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 20.4N 53.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 21.9N 55.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 23.5N 56.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 25.1N 58.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 31.7N 64.1W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-16 14:38


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 161436
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...TEDDY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 49.7W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 49.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next couple of
days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane by late tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America
today and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-16 14:37


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 161435
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 49.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 40SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 49.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 49.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 50.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 52.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.4N 53.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.9N 55.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 56.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.1N 58.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 31.7N 64.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 49.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-09-16 08:40


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160838
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy continues to quickly intensify. The latest satellite images
shows that a ragged eye is present, although microwave images show
it is closed in the low-levels. Satellite intensity estimates
earlier were between 77- 90 kt, and the initial wind speed is set
to 85 with the increasing organization.

The environment appears to be ripe for rapid intensification with
light shear, warm water, and a solid ring present on overnight
37 GHz microwave data. Thus a 30-kt wind increase will be forecast
for the first 24 hours from the 6Z initial wind speed of 80 kt.
After that time, there could be an increase in shear from the
mid-oceanic trough, which should level off the wind speed, along
with possibly an increase in mid-level dry air. At long range,
Teddy could also be affected by the cold wake from Paulette. The
intensity forecast is also uncertain considering the guidance is
still catching up to the higher current intensity, but most
everything shows a large major hurricane for the bulk of the
forecast period, and so does the official forecast.

Teddy is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-tropospheric
high should steer the hurricane in that general direction and speed
throughout the forecast period until early next week when a turn to
the north-northwest is possible ahead of a mid-latitude trough.
The biggest change to note that guidance has almost unanimously
shifted westward at long range, seemingly due to a stronger central
Atlantic ridge, and the NHC forecast is also moved in that
direction. Unfortunately, this change does increase the threat to
Bermuda, which was just hit by Hurricane Paulette, but remember the
average track error at 5 days is roughly 200 miles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.3N 51.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 21.3N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 22.7N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 24.2N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 27.5N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-16 08:36


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160834
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...TEDDY NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE, FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY
4 LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 49.0W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 49.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is
forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
few days, and Teddy is likely to become a major hurricane later
today and could reach category 4 strength on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America
today should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-16 08:36


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160834
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 49.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 80SE 40SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 49.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 51.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.3N 54.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.7N 56.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.2N 57.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 27.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 49.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-16 06:49


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160646
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Special Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy has rapidly intensified overnight. Satellite images show an
eye has formed, and satellite intensity estimates are between 77-
90 kt. The initial wind speed is set to 80 kt as a blend of these
data. Further strengthening is expected and Teddy could become a
major hurricane later today or Thursday. The intensity forecast
has been raised considerably in the short-term based on current
trends, and could have to revised upward on the regular 5 am
advisory.

No changes to the track forecast are needed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0700Z 15.5N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-16 06:47


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160645
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Special Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...TEDDY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A 90-MPH HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 48.7W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM AST (0700 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 48.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue into the weekend and remain well northeast
of the Lesser Antilles.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Teddy could become a major hurricane
later today or Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America
today should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-16 06:45


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160643
TCMAT5

HURRICANE TEDDY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 48.7W AT 16/0700Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 80SE 40SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 48.7W AT 16/0700Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 48.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 125 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 48.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-16 06:13


Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 160611
TCUAT5

Hurricane Teddy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
210 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...TEDDY BECOMES A HURRICANE...

Satellite estimates indicate that Teddy has quickly strengthened
into a hurricane with 85 mph (140 km/h) sustained winds. This new
intensity will be incorporated into the next full advisory before 5
AM AST.

SUMMARY OF 210 AM AST...0610 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 48.5W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-16 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160235
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

At a glance, Teddy looks like a hurricane in conventional infrared
satellite imagery. Two hooking convective bands are rotating
around the center, and cold convective tops are becoming more
symmetric within the circulation. Objective intensity estimates
have still struggled to increase for some reason, but a blend of
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing Teddy's
intensity to 60 kt. Overall, the environment looks generally
conducive for strengthening. The main limiting factors would be
moderate southwesterly shear in 2-3 days, paired with a drier
environment with mid-level relative humidity dropping from 55-60
percent to about 40 percent in 3 days. The updated NHC intensity
forecast has not been changed significantly from the previous
prediction mainly to ensure continuity. Nearly all of the
intensity models are below this forecast, and downward intensity
adjustments could be required in later forecasts if Teddy doesn't
show sure signs of significant intensification.

Teddy has turned toward the northwest and slowed down a bit with an
initial motion of 305/8 kt. A mid-tropospheric high pressure area
is expected to be nearly stationary over the central Atlantic for
the entire forecast period, which is likely to keep Teddy on a
constant northwestward heading with only small fluctuations in
forward speed. If I was to look for any outlier among the
tightly clustered track guidance, it would be the ECMWF, which is
slightly off to the west of the main pack of models. The NHC track
forecast is just a little to the west of the TVCA multi-model
consensus aid in deference to the ECMWF, and it's fairly close to
the latest HCCA solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.0N 48.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-16 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160235
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...TEDDY BEARS WATCHING...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 48.3W
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 48.3 West. Teddy is
now moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Teddy
is expected to become a hurricane overnight. Teddy could then be
near major hurricane strength in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on
Wednesday and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-16 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160234
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 48.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 80SE 40SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 48.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 48.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 48.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2020-09-15 20:42


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 152039
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Overall, Teddy's organization has continued to slowly improve
during the past several hours. AMSR microwave imagery near 1630 UTC
showed that a low- to mid-level eye feature is beginning to form.
The overall convective pattern has also improved, though not enough
to increase the intensity estimates at this time, which only range
from 45-55 kt. The intensity is therefore held at 55 kt, but it
does appear that some intensification is imminent.

The AMSR image showed indications of a microwave signature commonly
associated with rapid intensification in favorable environments. Low
shear and warm SSTs along the forecast track are certainly
conducive, though dry air continues to be a possible limiting
factor. The dry air is probably the reason that dry slots continue
to occasionally appear in IR imagery near the center of Teddy. Rapid
intensification probabilities are not particularly high; the SHIPS
RI gives a 22 percent chance of a 30-kt increase during the next 24
h while DTOPS shows a mere 1 percent chance. The rest of the
intensity models forecast only modest strengthening for the next
couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is at the top of the
intensity guidance for the next 48 h and slightly above all of the
models after that, but I am hesitant to lower it any further at
this time given the recent microwave signature and overall
improvement in Teddy's structure.

In contrast, Teddy's track outlook remains straightforward, and no
changes of note were made to the official forecast. The tropical
storm is turning gradually toward the northwest and should begin
moving in that direction tonight. A ridge over the central Atlantic
should then steer Teddy in that general direction for the rest of
the week. The model spread is still much lower than normal, and
confidence in the track forecast is fairly high.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 14.6N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 19.7N 53.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 22.5N 55.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 25.4N 58.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-15 20:40


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 152038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...STEADY TEDDY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 47.9 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A steady
northwest motion at 10 to 15 mph is expected through the end of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Teddy could become a
hurricane tonight. Teddy is forecast to be near major hurricane
strength within a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-15 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 152037
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 47.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 80SE 40SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 47.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 47.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 53.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 55.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 25.4N 58.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 47.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-09-15 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 151600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.6N 20.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2020 0 8.6N 20.3W 1012 20
0000UTC 16.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 121.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2020 0 20.0N 121.1W 993 44
0000UTC 16.09.2020 12 21.3N 122.6W 991 42
1200UTC 16.09.2020 24 22.4N 124.2W 997 36
0000UTC 17.09.2020 36 23.3N 125.8W 1001 35
1200UTC 17.09.2020 48 24.1N 127.0W 1004 28
0000UTC 18.09.2020 60 24.0N 128.2W 1006 26
1200UTC 18.09.2020 72 23.5N 129.4W 1009 22
0000UTC 19.09.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.3N 59.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2020 0 37.3N 59.7W 952 73
0000UTC 16.09.2020 12 39.7N 54.1W 942 89
1200UTC 16.09.2020 24 42.3N 47.3W 960 80
0000UTC 17.09.2020 36 44.5N 40.1W 977 64
1200UTC 17.09.2020 48 45.7N 35.9W 976 59
0000UTC 18.09.2020 60 44.5N 34.5W 985 45
1200UTC 18.09.2020 72 41.7N 34.5W 995 40
0000UTC 19.09.2020 84 39.4N 34.4W 999 42
1200UTC 19.09.2020 96 37.7N 35.6W 1000 39
0000UTC 20.09.2020 108 36.4N 36.3W 999 37
1200UTC 20.09.2020 120 35.7N 37.1W 1000 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 132 34.9N 38.7W 1001 35
1200UTC 21.09.2020 144 33.9N 39.7W 1001 43

HURRICANE SALLY ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N 88.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2020 0 29.1N 88.1W 975 67
0000UTC 16.09.2020 12 29.6N 87.9W 971 68
1200UTC 16.09.2020 24 30.2N 87.2W 969 60
0000UTC 17.09.2020 36 30.8N 86.1W 989 42
1200UTC 17.09.2020 48 31.4N 85.0W 1000 32
0000UTC 18.09.2020 60 32.5N 82.7W 1002 31
1200UTC 18.09.2020 72 32.2N 81.6W 1005 24
0000UTC 19.09.2020 84 32.5N 79.0W 1006 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM VICKY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 30.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL212020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2020 0 20.3N 30.7W 1008 35
0000UTC 16.09.2020 12 20.9N 32.8W 1010 29
1200UTC 16.09.2020 24 21.1N 34.7W 1011 27
0000UTC 17.09.2020 36 21.3N 36.8W 1012 26
1200UTC 17.09.2020 48 21.4N 38.5W 1012 23
0000UTC 18.09.2020 60 20.9N 40.0W 1013 23
1200UTC 18.09.2020 72 20.4N 41.1W 1013 22
0000UTC 19.09.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM TEDDY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 46.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2020 0 13.9N 46.7W 1000 38
0000UTC 16.09.2020 12 14.7N 47.8W 994 49
1200UTC 16.09.2020 24 16.1N 48.8W 986 55
0000UTC 17.09.2020 36 17.5N 49.7W 975 66
1200UTC 17.09.2020 48 19.0N 51.3W 964 74
0000UTC 18.09.2020 60 20.3N 52.5W 960 71
1200UTC 18.09.2020 72 21.4N 53.7W 963 66
0000UTC 19.09.2020 84 22.9N 54.8W 957 73
1200UTC 19.09.2020 96 24.3N 56.5W 952 77
0000UTC 20.09.2020 108 25.8N 58.1W 947 79
1200UTC 20.09.2020 120 27.3N 59.8W 944 77
0000UTC 21.09.2020 132 29.0N 61.1W 949 74
1200UTC 21.09.2020 144 31.2N 61.5W 950 71

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.0N 15.0E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2020 0 33.0N 15.0E 1009 26
0000UTC 16.09.2020 12 33.0N 16.1E 1010 22
1200UTC 16.09.2020 24 34.0N 17.8E 1008 30
0000UTC 17.09.2020 36 35.2N 19.0E 1006 31
1200UTC 17.09.2020 48 36.6N 20.9E 1003 42
0000UTC 18.09.2020 60 37.7N 23.4E 1006 25
1200UTC 18.09.2020 72 39.0N 23.2E 1007 33
0000UTC 19.09.2020 84 36.1N 21.4E 1007 33
1200UTC 19.09.2020 96 35.3N 22.1E 1007 31
0000UTC 20.09.2020 108 34.0N 23.7E 1007 33
1200UTC 20.09.2020 120 33.1N 25.6E 1007 30
0000UTC 21.09.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.8N 151.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2020 24 9.8N 151.5W 1008 25
0000UTC 17.09.2020 36 10.6N 153.7W 1007 28
1200UTC 17.09.2020 48 11.4N 156.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 18.09.2020 60 12.0N 158.9W 1007 31
1200UTC 18.09.2020 72 12.5N 161.5W 1007 29
0000UTC 19.09.2020 84 13.1N 164.3W 1007 29
1200UTC 19.09.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 21.0N 93.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2020 108 21.0N 93.8W 1006 36
1200UTC 20.09.2020 120 20.8N 95.0W 1005 41
0000UTC 21.09.2020 132 21.6N 95.9W 1001 44
1200UTC 21.09.2020 144 22.5N 97.0W 992 47


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151600

>

2020-09-15 14:36


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 151434
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Teddy's structure is slowly improving. Visible and IR imagery
indicate that inner-core convection has increased, despite the
continued presence of dry slots. The latest Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 55 kt.

Teddy is still heading west-northwestward for the moment with a
forward speed estimate of 11 kt. Teddy will likely turn
northwestward today and continue steadily moving northwestward along
the southwest periphery of a ridge over the central Atlantic for the
next several days. In fact, all available guidance indicates that
once it makes that northwestward turn, Teddy will barely deviate
from its heading or forward speed for the rest of the week. The
latest NHC track forecast is virtually identical to the previous
one. The model spread is smaller than usual and confidence in the
track forecast is high.

Teddy's low shear and warm SST environment should be conducive for
further strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely
unchanged. Some dry air in the environment could restrict Teddy's
intensification rate, but is not expected to prevent Teddy from
becoming a hurricane later today or tonight. Continued strengthening
is expected thereafter and Teddy is forecast to become a major
hurricane within the next few days. On the whole, the intensity
guidance is a little lower at the longer-range times, so the NHC
forecast at days 4 and 5 is at the very top end of the guidance. I'd
rather see a more consistent signal from the models before making a
larger change to the forecast, especially given the impressive
depiction of Teddy in the global model forecasts at that time.

The 34 kt wind radii were expanded to the northwest of Teddy based
on data from an 1136 UTC ASCAT-A overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 48.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 16.1N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 20.3N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 21.5N 55.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 27.1N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-15 14:36


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 151433
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...TEDDY WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 47.0W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 47.0 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A steady
northwest motion at 10 to 15 mph is expected through the end of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the next
several days. Teddy will likely become a hurricane later today or
tonight and could reach major hurricane strength in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-15 14:36


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 151433
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 47.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 60SE 40SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 47.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 46.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.9N 48.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.1N 49.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 50.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.3N 53.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 27.1N 60.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 47.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-09-15 08:59


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150857
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

The tropical storm appears to have gotten better organized
overnight, with deeper convection near the center and an increase in
banding features. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt,
a little lower than the subjective Dvorak estimates alone would
indicate since they have been running a little hot for this storm.
While there are no signs of a true inner core yet, the shear is
quite low at present, and Teddy should have several days in a low or
moderate shear environment over warm waters to strengthen. Thus,
the new forecast is raised from the previous one and is closest to a
blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the NOAA corrected-
consensus guidance. Teddy bears watching in the long range for
category 4 strength, but regardless of the details, all of the
guidance show it becoming a classical large and powerful September
hurricane.

The storm has turned west-northwestward tonight, or 295/10 kt.
Teddy remains in a well-defined steering current for the next
several days on the southwestern edge of the central Atlantic
ridge, causing a west-northwest to northwest track through the
end of the forecast. While the guidance is in very good agreement,
there's been a rightward shift of almost all the aids, perhaps due
to more upper-level westerly flow than the last cycle. The NHC
track forecast is shifted eastward but lies on the western side of
the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 13.7N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.6N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 23.5N 56.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 26.5N 59.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-15 08:57


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150855
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...TEDDY EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 46.0W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 46.0 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a
west-northwest to northwest track is anticipated during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next several
days, and Teddy is likely to become a hurricane late today and
could reach major hurricane strength in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-15 08:56


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150854
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.0W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.0W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 45.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.4N 47.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 48.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.5N 56.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 26.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 46.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-15 02:35


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150233
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Teddy is displaying some mixed signals this evening. On one hand,
satellite imagery shows an improving cloud pattern, with
increasing central convection and a large curved band on the
southern side of the circulation. The latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak
estimates have increased to 55 kt on this basis. Scatterometer
data, surprisingly, only shows 35-40 kt. The initial wind speed
remains 45 kt as a blend of that data, assuming the typical
undersampling from ASCAT, but there is a fair bit of uncertainty in
the current wind speed. Teddy should have several days in a low or
moderate shear environment over warm waters to intensify. All
guidance responds to this forcing by showing Teddy near major
hurricane strength in a few days, with the biggest disagreement
being how fast it gets there. The new forecast is similar to the
previous one, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance
HCCA.

Teddy is moving about the same as before, or 280/11 kt. No
substantial changes were made to the forecast track with the storm
in a seemingly stable steering current provided by a deep-layer
ridge over the central Atlantic. Teddy should turn
west-northwestward overnight and then northwestward on Wednesday
through the end of the forecast while it moves on the southwestern
flank of the ridge. Model guidance is in excellent agreement, with
only some minor speed differences. The NHC track prediction is
basically on top of the previous one and the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 13.2N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 13.8N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 14.8N 48.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.9N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.3N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 18.5N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 19.9N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 22.6N 56.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 25.5N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-15 02:34


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...TEDDY FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 45.0W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 45.0 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected overnight through
Tuesday night, followed by a northwestward motion Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next several days.
Teddy is expected to become a hurricane Tuesday and could reach
major hurricane strength on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-09-15 02:34


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150232
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 45.0W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 45.0W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 44.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.8N 46.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.8N 48.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N 49.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 51.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 52.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 54.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.6N 56.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 25.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-09-14 20:35


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 142033
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Teddy is strengthening this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery
shows a growing convective band south and west of the center and a
CDO feature developing over the estimated low-level center position.
The initial intensity is set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB.

The environment along Teddy's forecast track features increasing
SSTs and low shear for the next several days, and with the improved
convective structure of the cyclone, steady strengthening is
forecast. The NHC intensity prediction has been increased from the
previous advisory, and shows a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours,
which is supported by the SHIPS model and some of the RII indices.
Beyond that time, Teddy is forecast to reach major hurricane
intensity in about 3 days. The new NHC forecast is near HCCA through
the forecast period.

Microwave and geostationary satellite fixes suggest an initial
motion of 275/12. The track forecast reasoning is similar to that of
the previous advisory. Teddy will initially be steered westward
and then west-northwestward by a deep-layer ridge located over the
central Atlantic. As the ridge shifts eastward through the forecast
period, Teddy is forecast to turn more northwestward as it moves
around the western edge of the ridge. There is a fair amount of
across track spread in the guidance, with the ECMWF on the right
and the GFS and HWRF on the left. Overall the guidance envelope has
shifted to the left since this morning. The new NHC track has
been adjusted in that direction, and lies near or a little to the
right of the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 13.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 13.6N 45.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 14.5N 47.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.4N 49.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.6N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 19.3N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 22.0N 56.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 24.5N 58.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-09-14 20:34


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 142032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...TEDDY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 44.0W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 44.0 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight through
Tuesday night, followed by a northwestward motion Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast for the next
several days, and Teddy is expected to become a hurricane Tuesday
and could reach major hurricane strength on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-09-14 20:33


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 142031
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 44.0W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 44.0W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 43.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.6N 45.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.5N 47.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.4N 49.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.6N 50.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.9N 52.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.3N 53.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 44.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

2020-09-14 14:44


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 141442
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

A timely 1156 UTC ASCAT-A pass was very helpful in locating the
center of Teddy, which was farther south and west than previously
estimated. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is
gradually becoming better organized, with the center located near
the northern edge of a curved convective band. Based on the ASCAT
data and the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and SAB, the
intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/12. Despite
the adjustment to the center position, the overall track forecast
reasoning has not changed. Teddy will be steered by a deep-layer
ridge located over the central Atlantic, which should result in a
west-northwestward motion resuming by tonight. The ridge is
forecast to shift eastward with time, and Teddy is forecast to turn
more northwestward in a couple of days around the western edge of
the ridge. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted about a
degree to the left of the previous NHC prediction, largely due to
the adjustment in the initial position, and lies near the
consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope.

Teddy will be moving through a favorable environment for
intensification for the next several days, with SSTs increasing
along the forecast track and shear remaining relatively low. The
new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, showing
Teddy becoming a hurricane in 36 hours and reaching major hurricane
strength in 4 to 5 days. This forecast is close to IVCN through the
first 48 hours and then trends toward the higher HCCA guidance
after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 12.8N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 13.2N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 13.9N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 14.7N 48.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 15.7N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 16.9N 51.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 18.3N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 21.0N 54.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-09-14 14:43


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 141441
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...TEDDY POISED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 42.8W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 42.8 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slightly
slower west-northwestward motion tonight and Tuesday. A turn
toward the northwest and a further decrease in forward speed is
forecast by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-09-14 14:43


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 141441
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 42.8W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 42.8W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 42.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.2N 44.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.9N 46.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.7N 48.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N 49.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.9N 51.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.3N 52.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 42.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

2020-09-14 09:19


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 140917
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM TEDDY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 40.4W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 40.4 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two
followed by a turn toward the northwest by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and
Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-09-14 09:19


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 140917
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 40.4W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 40.4W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 39.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 40.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-09-14 09:01


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 140859
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Earlier ASCAT data indciated peak winds of 33 kt in the northwestern
quadrant of the depression. Since then, convection has increased and
so have the various satellite intensity estimates. The initial
intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and
satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS
SATCON. This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named
storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005.

The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A deep-layer subtropical
ridge positioned over the central Atlantic should keep Teddy moving
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the
ridge is expected to shift northward and eastward, and the
strengthening cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward around the
western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track guidance is
general agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new
official forecast track is similar to the previous one and lies down
the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus model
tracks.

Teddy will have several days to strengthen over very warm ocean
temperatures and within a light vertical wind shear regime. The
only hindrance to intensification will be intermittent intrusions
of dry mid-level air that will briefly disrupt the inner-core
convective structure. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged
and brings Teddy major hurricane strength by the middle of the week.
Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that
Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make
that forecast at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 13.4N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-09-14 02:52


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 140249
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The depression continues to march west-northwestward with little
change in its structure so far. Scatterometer data near 00Z revealed
that the system is still elongated southwest to northeast with
maximum winds near 30 kt. Convection has become a little more
concentrated to the southwest of the depression's center during the
past few hours, so perhaps this is a sign that it will start getting
organized soon.

As long as the depression remains disorganized, only minimal
strengthening is likely. However, once the system comes together,
all indications are that it will strengthen, perhaps significantly
so. The cyclone still has several days to strengthen within a
low-shear/high-SST environment, and even the global models
explicitly forecast the system to become a hurricane. The NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged and still brings the depression to
major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the
dynamical hurricane models indicate it could strengthen faster than
that, so this forecast could wind up being conservative.

The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward. A
large mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic should keep the
cyclone on this general heading for the next couple of days. After
that, the ridge is forecast to move north and east, and the
strengthening cyclone should turn toward the northwest in response.
While the exact details vary from model to model, all of the
dynamical track guidance supports this general scenario. The NHC
forecast is based heavily on the model consensus and lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 13.0N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 15.0N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 17.2N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 20.0N 52.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-14 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 140248
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POTENTIALLY BECOMING
A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 39.0W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 39.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion is expected for the
next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest by
mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is anticipated and the system is forecast to become a
hurricane in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are
expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of
South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-14 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 140248
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 39.0W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 39.0W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 38.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 41.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.9N 43.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 47.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 48.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.2N 50.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.0N 52.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 39.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-09-13 20:36


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 132034
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The depression's center is a little closer to the deep convection
compared to this morning, but the overall structure has not changed
significantly. Based on this morning's ASCAT pass, and recent
Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity
remains 30 kt. The northerly shear over the system has been
analyzed to have decreased since this morning (now around 10 kt),
which is probably why the center is closer to the convection. The
shear is forecast to decrease further, and once the depression
becomes more detached from the ITCZ/monsoon trough, it is expected
to go through a significant phase of strengthening as it heads west
toward higher oceanic heat content and a more unstable atmosphere.
As discussed this morning, the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates
that there is a 50-50 chance that the depression will strengthen
by at least 65 kt during the next 3 days, which is 10 times higher
than the climatological mean. And, all three regional hurricane
models (HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC), as well as the HCCA aid, show
the cyclone becoming a major hurricane by the end of the forecast
period. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward and now explicitly shows major hurricane strength on days 4
and 5.

The motion remains west-northwestward (290/10 kt), with the
depression located south of a large mid-level high centered over the
central Atlantic. This feature should continue driving the system
westward or west-northwestward for the next 2 days. After that
time, the ridge is expected to shift northward, causing the
potentially strengthening hurricane to move a little slower toward
the northwest. Most of the track models are clustered close
together, although the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the ECMWF
model is a little slower and on the right side of the envelope. The
new NHC track forecast has not moved much from the previous
prediction and now lies closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 12.7N 37.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 13.6N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 14.1N 44.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 14.7N 46.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 15.6N 47.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.8N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 19.5N 51.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-13 20:36


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 132033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POTENTIALLY BECOMING
A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 37.6W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1600 MI...2570 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 37.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic is expected through Tuesday,
followed by a slower northwestward motion Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and then will likely
strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are
expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of
South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-13 20:35


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 132033
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 37.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 37.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 37.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.6N 42.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.1N 44.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.7N 46.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 47.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 49.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 37.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2020-09-13 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 131559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 26.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2020 0 17.5N 26.7W 1012 21
0000UTC 14.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM SALLY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2020 0 27.3N 84.4W 1002 37
0000UTC 14.09.2020 12 28.0N 86.0W 1000 34
1200UTC 14.09.2020 24 28.4N 87.4W 997 41
0000UTC 15.09.2020 36 28.8N 88.4W 992 54
1200UTC 15.09.2020 48 29.2N 88.8W 983 61
0000UTC 16.09.2020 60 30.0N 88.8W 970 69
1200UTC 16.09.2020 72 30.8N 88.1W 984 47
0000UTC 17.09.2020 84 31.7N 87.2W 998 31
1200UTC 17.09.2020 96 32.6N 86.0W 1003 25
0000UTC 18.09.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 47.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2020 0 26.5N 47.1W 1013 22
0000UTC 14.09.2020 12 27.0N 47.8W 1016 22
1200UTC 14.09.2020 24 27.0N 48.8W 1017 21
0000UTC 15.09.2020 36 26.5N 49.9W 1016 23
1200UTC 15.09.2020 48 25.9N 51.1W 1016 22
0000UTC 16.09.2020 60 24.8N 52.8W 1015 21
1200UTC 16.09.2020 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 114.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2020 0 17.5N 114.3W 1001 30
0000UTC 14.09.2020 12 18.1N 116.5W 1000 26
1200UTC 14.09.2020 24 18.3N 118.3W 1000 29
0000UTC 15.09.2020 36 18.9N 119.8W 999 34
1200UTC 15.09.2020 48 19.6N 121.1W 999 40
0000UTC 16.09.2020 60 21.0N 122.3W 998 38
1200UTC 16.09.2020 72 22.2N 123.5W 999 38
0000UTC 17.09.2020 84 23.4N 124.7W 1002 38
1200UTC 17.09.2020 96 24.0N 125.6W 1005 27
0000UTC 18.09.2020 108 24.2N 126.1W 1007 23
1200UTC 18.09.2020 120 24.1N 126.8W 1010 20
0000UTC 19.09.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 61.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2020 0 29.5N 61.4W 976 57
0000UTC 14.09.2020 12 30.7N 63.5W 975 61
1200UTC 14.09.2020 24 32.7N 65.0W 971 65
0000UTC 15.09.2020 36 34.8N 64.2W 955 75
1200UTC 15.09.2020 48 37.0N 60.3W 943 83
0000UTC 16.09.2020 60 39.3N 55.1W 940 91
1200UTC 16.09.2020 72 41.8N 48.5W 955 83
0000UTC 17.09.2020 84 44.4N 41.5W 973 68
1200UTC 17.09.2020 96 45.9N 36.3W 975 50
0000UTC 18.09.2020 108 45.3N 34.4W 979 47
1200UTC 18.09.2020 120 42.8N 33.3W 987 44
0000UTC 19.09.2020 132 40.2N 33.2W 991 45
1200UTC 19.09.2020 144 37.7N 32.6W 992 41

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 36.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2020 0 12.2N 36.1W 1008 28
0000UTC 14.09.2020 12 13.3N 38.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 14.09.2020 24 13.3N 41.5W 1007 30
0000UTC 15.09.2020 36 13.2N 43.9W 1005 32
1200UTC 15.09.2020 48 13.8N 45.7W 1001 38
0000UTC 16.09.2020 60 14.6N 47.2W 995 48
1200UTC 16.09.2020 72 15.6N 48.3W 990 53
0000UTC 17.09.2020 84 16.7N 49.7W 981 61
1200UTC 17.09.2020 96 18.3N 51.0W 969 68
0000UTC 18.09.2020 108 19.7N 52.4W 957 71
1200UTC 18.09.2020 120 21.2N 53.7W 951 74
0000UTC 19.09.2020 132 22.5N 54.7W 949 82
1200UTC 19.09.2020 144 23.6N 55.5W 947 88

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 17.2N 29.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 24 17.5N 28.1W 1012 29
0000UTC 15.09.2020 36 20.2N 28.6W 1011 30
1200UTC 15.09.2020 48 20.9N 30.4W 1011 31
0000UTC 16.09.2020 60 21.4N 31.9W 1012 25
1200UTC 16.09.2020 72 22.0N 33.5W 1012 25
0000UTC 17.09.2020 84 21.9N 34.8W 1012 22
1200UTC 17.09.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 10.5N 148.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2020 48 10.3N 149.6W 1008 27
0000UTC 16.09.2020 60 10.2N 150.9W 1006 26
1200UTC 16.09.2020 72 10.5N 152.8W 1007 27
0000UTC 17.09.2020 84 11.1N 154.9W 1005 35
1200UTC 17.09.2020 96 11.8N 157.3W 1005 33
0000UTC 18.09.2020 108 12.5N 159.8W 1005 34
1200UTC 18.09.2020 120 13.2N 162.2W 1006 34
0000UTC 19.09.2020 132 13.8N 165.0W 1007 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 144 14.7N 167.6W 1009 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131559

>

2020-09-13 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 131559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 26.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2020 17.5N 26.7W WEAK
00UTC 14.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM SALLY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2020 27.3N 84.4W WEAK
00UTC 14.09.2020 28.0N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 28.4N 87.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 28.8N 88.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2020 29.2N 88.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2020 30.0N 88.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.09.2020 30.8N 88.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2020 31.7N 87.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2020 32.6N 86.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 47.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2020 26.5N 47.1W WEAK
00UTC 14.09.2020 27.0N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 27.0N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 26.5N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 25.9N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 24.8N 52.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 114.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2020 17.5N 114.3W WEAK
00UTC 14.09.2020 18.1N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 18.3N 118.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 18.9N 119.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 19.6N 121.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 21.0N 122.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 22.2N 123.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 23.4N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2020 24.0N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 24.2N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2020 24.1N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 61.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2020 29.5N 61.4W STRONG
00UTC 14.09.2020 30.7N 63.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 32.7N 65.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2020 34.8N 64.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2020 37.0N 60.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2020 39.3N 55.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 41.8N 48.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2020 44.4N 41.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2020 45.9N 36.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 45.3N 34.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2020 42.8N 33.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2020 40.2N 33.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2020 37.7N 32.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 36.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2020 12.2N 36.1W WEAK
00UTC 14.09.2020 13.3N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 13.3N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 13.2N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 13.8N 45.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2020 14.6N 47.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2020 15.6N 48.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2020 16.7N 49.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2020 18.3N 51.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2020 19.7N 52.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2020 21.2N 53.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2020 22.5N 54.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2020 23.6N 55.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 17.2N 29.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 17.5N 28.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 20.2N 28.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 20.9N 30.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 21.4N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 22.0N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 21.9N 34.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 10.5N 148.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2020 10.3N 149.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 10.2N 150.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 10.5N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 11.1N 154.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2020 11.8N 157.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 12.5N 159.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2020 13.2N 162.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2020 13.8N 165.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2020 14.7N 167.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131559

>

2020-09-13 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 131455
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Convective banding features are generally limited to the southern
semicircle of the circulation with the center exposed just to the
north. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that the strongest winds--up
to 30 kt--were primarily located in the southerly and southwesterly
monsoonal flow trailing the depression, although some stronger
winds are beginning to develop just west of the center. Light-to-
moderate northerly shear is currently affecting the depression, but
this shear is expected to decrease during the next 24-48 hours. In
addition, global model fields indicate that the cyclone should
become increasingly separated from the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Steady
strengthening is anticipated for much of the forecast period, and
the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA aid and the
IVCN intensity consensus. This new forecast is a little higher
than the previous prediction, especially on days 3 through 5.
There are two main points that suggest this forecast could
potentially go even higher in later forecast cycles: 1. the HWRF
model shows more significant strengthening at the latter part of
the period, bringing the system to major hurricane strength, and 2.
the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance indicates that there is a
50-50 chance that the system will strengthen by at least 65 kt over
the next 3 days, which is 9-10 times higher than the climatological
mean.

The depression is moving west-northwestward (290/9 kt) to the south
of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central
subtropical Atlantic. This feature should continue to drive the
cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days.
After that time, the mid-level high is expected to shift northward
and elongate, and the potentially intensifying hurricane is likely
to acquire more poleward motion, moving northwestward and a little
slower on days 3-5. Most of the track models are clustered close
together, except for the HWRF which has a trajectory farther to the
south and west. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit
westward compared to the previous prediction, close to the
GFS-ECMWF consensus but not as far to the left as the latest TVCA
and HCCA solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 12.3N 36.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 12.8N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.3N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.7N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 15.3N 46.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 16.3N 48.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 22.0N 53.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-13 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 131455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 36.4W
ABOUT 1680 MI...2705 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 36.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic is expected through Tuesday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and
it could strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are
expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of
South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-13 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 131455
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 36.4W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 36.4W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 35.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.8N 38.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.3N 40.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.7N 43.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 46.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 48.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 36.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2020-09-13 08:56


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 130853
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The depression remains poorly organized and elongated from
northeast-to-southwest. Convection mainly consists of small curved
but fragmented bands in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates remain unchanged as a result, so the initial intensity
will also remain unchanged at 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 295/09 kt. The ridge to the north
and east of the tropical depression is forecast to remain intact
for the next 5 days, keeping the cyclone on a general
west-northwestward track through 72 hours, followed by a
northwestward motion toward the weakness in the ridge on days 4 and
5. The latest NHC guidance remains in very good agreement on this
developing track scenario and, thus, no significant changes were
made to the previous advisory track.

Due to the negative influence of the long low-level westerly fetch
associated with the monsoon trough that the cyclone is embedded
within, it will likely another 24 hours or so for the low-level
wind field to become better organized. However, once that occurs,
environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for steady
strengthening on days 2-4, followed by gradual weakening on ay 5
due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory forecast, and
lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 12.2N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 12.6N 36.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 13.7N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 14.4N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 15.3N 45.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 16.3N 46.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 21.5N 51.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-09-13 08:54


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 130852
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 35.5W
ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 35.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expect over the next several days, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday and it
could become a hurricane in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-09-13 08:54


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 130851
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 35.5W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 35.5W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 35.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.6N 36.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.7N 41.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.4N 43.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.3N 45.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.3N 46.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 51.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 35.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-09-13 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 130247
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

The depression is poorly organized at this time. A large convective
band wraps around the northern and western portions of the cyclone,
but its center of circulation is exposed and appears to have become
somewhat elongated. Recent ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak
analysis indicate that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt.

It will take some time for the depression to get better organized,
and only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h.
After that time, the cyclone's environment is expected to support
intensification, and the intensity guidance is quite aggressive.
While the exact timing is somewhat uncertain, it is probable that
the system will become a hurricane early next week. The new NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted higher than the previous
advisory beyond 48 h, but it is below or near the model consensus at
all times.

Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The depression
appears to be moving generally west-northwestward near 9 kt. In
general, the system should continue west-northwestward for the next
couple of days, with some slight fluctuations in its track possible
tonight and tomorrow as the center consolidates. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge is expected to develop by the middle of next week
that could steer the cyclone more toward the northwest. The guidance
is in very good agreement on this general scenario, though
confidence in the forecast will be somewhat low until the system
becomes a little better organized and strengthens. The official
forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 12.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 12.9N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 13.5N 40.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 14.1N 42.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 14.8N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 18.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-13 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 130247
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 34.6W
ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 34.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is anticipated. The system is forecast
to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and it could become a
hurricane in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-13 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 130246
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 34.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 34.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 34.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.3N 35.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.9N 37.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 40.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.1N 42.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.8N 44.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 34.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-09-12 21:05


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 122103
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

The tropical wave and associated area of low pressure that NHC has
been tracking since it emerged off of Africa a couple of days ago
has become sufficiently organized to be designated as a tropical
depression. A curved band of deep convection developed early this
morning and persisted just to the west of a well-defined low level
circulation throughout the day. An earlier ASCAT overpass showed
that 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the
circulation, which is the basis for the initial intensity being
set at 30 kt.

The depression has a rather large circulation, with the radius of
maximum winds nearly 100 n mi from the center and the overall wind
field appearing to extend outward over 300 n mi. The environment
surrounding the cyclone over the next 36 h is characterized by
moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and plenty of warm water
and atmospheric moisture. These factors are supportive of gradual
strengthening, however, due to the large size of the system, it may
take some time for it to consolidate. The NHC intensity forecast
shows only slight strengthening through 36 h as the system
consolidates, and that portion of the forecast is well below the
intensity guidance. By early next week, the wind shear is expected
to decrease to under 10 kt and a faster rate of intensification is
indicated from 36-96 h in anticipation of the cyclone having a
better structure to take advantage of the lower shear. After 96 h
the intensity is held steady as northwesterly shear is forecast to
increase while the system encounters some slightly drier air and
moves over lower oceanic heat content. The NHC intensity forecast
beyond 36 h starts well below most of the guidance, and trends close
to the IVCN/ICON later on in the forecast period.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest at 8 kt, steered
by a mid-level ridge to its north. This ridge is forecast to build
westward over the next few days, which should result in a continued
general west-northwest motion, perhaps at a slightly faster forward
speed early next week. By the middle of next week, a weakness is
forecast to develop in the ridge, partially due to interaction of
Paulette and a mid- to- upper level trough over the northern
Atlantic at that time, and the cyclone should turn to the northwest
into this weakness. Overall, track guidance from the global and
regional models is in decent agreement on this scenario, and the
NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
TVCN multimodel consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 11.4N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 11.5N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 12.1N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 12.8N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 13.3N 40.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 14.0N 42.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 15.0N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 17.7N 47.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 21.0N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-12 20:44


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 122042
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 33.5W
ABOUT 2030 MI...3265 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 33.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few
days with a slight increase in forward speed early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday
night. A faster rate of strengthening is possible early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-12 20:44


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 122041
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 33.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 33.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 33.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.1N 36.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 12.8N 38.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.3N 40.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.0N 42.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 44.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 47.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 49.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 33.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>