Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KIKO-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-09-25 03:43

WTPN31 PHNC 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 051//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 051
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 18.7N 140.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 140.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.5N 141.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.6N 142.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.1N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.5N 145.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
250400Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 140.5W.
25SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
852 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z
IS 10 FEET. //
NNNN

>

2019-09-25 02:40

WTPA44 PHFO 250237 RRA
TCDCP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132019
500 PM HST TUE SEP 24 2019

THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF KIKO HAS BEEN FULLY EXPOSED ALL DAY
WITHOUT ANY NEARBY DEEP CONVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF
40 TO 50 KT, AS INDICATED BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS, ALONG WITH MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DO THAT TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. TODAY'S
ASCAT-A/B/C SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALL SHOWED WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT SO
KIKO WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATE ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CAME IN AT 35 KT FROM PHFO (HELD UP BY CONSTRAINTS), AND 30 KT FROM
SAB. THE UW/CIMSS ADT VALUE WAS 25 KT AT 25/0000 UTC. BASED ON A
BLEND OF THESE DATA, AND THE EXPECTATION THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM, KIKO WILL BE DESIGNATED A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITH AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE CENTER OF KIKO HAS BEEN MOVING AT 325/13 KT WITHIN THE SHALLOW
LAYER STEERING FLOW. THIS IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY WITH A FASTER SPEED. THE MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANT
LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME WESTWARD, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD, AS
IT SPINS DOWN AND MOVES WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MAIN
DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTH DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND
IS CLOSE TO THE HCCA GUIDANCE. DISSIPATION OF WHAT'S LEFT OF KIKO
SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON KIKO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND

>

2019-09-25 02:38

WTPA44 PHFO 250237
TCDCP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kiko Discussion Number 51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP132019
500 PM HST Tue Sep 24 2019

The low level center of Kiko has been fully exposed all day
without any nearby deep convection. Southwesterly vertical shear of
40 to 50 kt, as indicated by UW-CIMSS analysis, along with marginal
sea surface temperatures will do that to a tropical cyclone. Today's
ASCAT-A/B/C scatterometer passes all showed winds less than 35 kt so
Kiko was downgraded to a tropical depression in the Tropical Cyclone
Update issued earlier this afternoon. The Dvorak intensity estimates
came in at 35 kt from PHFO (held up by constraints), and 30 kt from
SAB. The UW/CIMSS ADT value was 25 kt at 25/0000 UTC. Based on a
blend of these data, and the expectation that vertical shear will
remain strong over the system, Kiko will be designated a
post-tropical remnant low with an intensity of 30 kt.

The center of Kiko has been moving at 325/13 kt within the shallow
layer steering flow. This is a bit to the right of the previous
advisory with a faster speed. The movement of the remnant
low is expected to gradually become westward, then southwestward, as
it spins down and moves within the trade wind flow. The main
dynamical objective aids are in agreement with this scenario. The
forecast track has been adjusted north due to the initial motion and
is close to the HCCA guidance. Dissipation of what's left of Kiko
should occur in the next 3 days.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Kiko. Additional information on this system can be found
in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in
Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 19.2N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 25/1200Z 19.5N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0000Z 19.6N 142.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 19.1N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 18.5N 145.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama

>

2019-09-25 02:34

WTPA34 PHFO 250234
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kiko Advisory Number 51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP132019
500 PM HST Tue Sep 24 2019

...KIKO WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 140.5W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kiko
was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 140.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h). A gradual turn to the west and then southwest is expected
tonight through Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnant low is expected to slowly weaken over the next
couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on Kiko. Additional information on the
post-tropical low can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS head HFOHSFNP, WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO, and on the web at https://www.weather.gov/hfo/HSFNP

$$
Forecaster Kodama


>

2019-09-25 02:33

WTPA24 PHFO 250231
TCMCP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132019
0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 140.5W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 140.5W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 140.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.5N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 142.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 145.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 140.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP...AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

..
FORECASTER KODAMA

>

2019-09-24 23:35

WTPA64 PHFO 242332
TCUCP4

Tropical Depression Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP132019
100 PM HST Tue Sep 24 2019

...KIKO BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

Scatterometer data from today's passes over Kiko indicated all winds
were below 35 kt. Therefore, Kiko is being downgraded to a tropical
depression.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 140.0W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...56 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Kodama

>

2019-09-24 21:07

WTPN31 PHNC 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 050//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 050
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 139.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 139.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.5N 140.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.9N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.8N 143.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.5N 144.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
242200Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 139.8W.
24SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 905 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z. //
NNNN

>

2019-09-24 20:54

WTPZ43 KNHC 242051
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 24 2019

KIKO IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
FACE OF 40 KT OF SOUTHWEST SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 35 KT, THOUGH ADT AND ASCAT PASSES
JUST COMING IN SUGGEST THIS MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO TURN WESTWARD, AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD
FOLLOWING THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND WEAKEN. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. WITHOUT DEEP CONVECTION, KIKO'S WIND
FIELD SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY SPIN DOWN.

KIKO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER. PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB
AT HURRICANES.GOV.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 18.0N 139.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 18.5N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 18.9N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER R BALLARD

>

2019-09-24 20:50

WTPZ33 KNHC 242048 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 24 2019

...KIKO BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 139.6W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 139.6 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN
FROM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, KIKO WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND KIKO IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD THEN DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

>

2019-09-24 20:49

WTPZ33 KNHC 242048
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019

...KIKO BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 139.6W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 139.6 West. Kiko is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn
from west-northwestward to west-southwestward is expected tonight
through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, Kiko will move
into the central Pacific basin later this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Kiko is likely to become a
tropical depression by this evening and should then degenerate into
a remnant low by early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO
header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the
web at hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

>

2019-09-24 20:49

WTPZ23 KNHC 242047
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 139.6W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 139.6W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 139.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.5N 140.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.9N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 139.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4...WMO
HEADER WTPA24 PHFO.

..
FORECASTER R BALLARD

>

2019-09-24 15:24

WTPN31 PHNC 241600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 049//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 049
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 138.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 138.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.7N 140.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.4N 141.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.4N 142.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.0N 143.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.3N 146.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
241600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 139.0W.
24SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 952 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z. //
NNNN

>

2019-09-24 14:58

WTPZ43 KNHC 241454 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
500 AM HST TUE SEP 24 2019

FORTY TO FORTY-FIVE KNOTS OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED
KIKO'S CONVECTION TO BECOME DISPLACED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BY
ABOUT 70 N MI. A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB, AS WELL AS THE LATEST ADT, SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 40 KT. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
KIKO IS HEADING FOR EVEN STRONGER SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DEGRADATION IN THE CYCLONE'S
STRUCTURE AND A QUICK DECREASE IN ITS MAXIMUM WINDS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SIMULATED INFRARED SATELLITE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT ALL DEEP
CONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS, AND AS A RESULT, THE TIME OF
KIKO'S DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW HAS BEEN MOVED UP TO 36 HOURS
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY DAY 4.

KIKO'S INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR 310/9 KT. THE CYCLONE
IS MOVING BETWEEN A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TO ITS NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, ONCE IT LOSES ITS DEEP
CONVECTION AND BECOMES A SHALLOW VORTEX, KIKO IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WESTWARD (BY 36 HOURS) AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD (BY 48 HOURS).
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED, AND
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, KIKO SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 17.9N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-24 14:57

WTPZ43 KNHC 241454
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019

Forty to forty-five knots of south-southwesterly shear has caused
Kiko's convection to become displaced from the low-level center by
about 70 n mi. A blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and
SAB, as well as the latest ADT, supports lowering the initial
intensity to 40 kt. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that
Kiko is heading for even stronger shear during the next 6-12 hours,
which should lead to further degradation in the cyclone's
structure and a quick decrease in its maximum winds. The GFS and
ECMWF simulated infrared satellite fields suggest that all deep
convection could dissipate by 24 hours, and as a result, the time of
Kiko's degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up to 36 hours
in the official forecast. Dissipation is expected by day 4.

Kiko's initial motion is northwestward, or 310/9 kt. The cyclone
is moving between a mid-/upper-level low to its west and mid-level
ridging to its northeast. However, once it loses its deep
convection and becomes a shallow vortex, Kiko is expected to turn
westward (by 36 hours) and then west-southwestward (by 48 hours).
Only minor adjustments to the NHC track forecast were required, and
on the forecast track, Kiko should cross 140W into the central
Pacific basin later this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 17.9N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1200Z 19.0N 143.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z 18.3N 146.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-24 14:56

WTPZ33 KNHC 241453
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
500 AM HST TUE SEP 24 2019

...KIKO WEAKENING...
...FINALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 138.9W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 138.9 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. A GRADUAL TURN FROM
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, KIKO WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND KIKO IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT. IT SHOULD THEN DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-24 14:56

WTPZ23 KNHC 241453
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 138.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 138.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 138.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 143.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 146.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 138.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-24 09:15

WTPN31 PHNC 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 137.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 137.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.5N 139.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.4N 140.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.7N 142.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.5N 143.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.5N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
241000Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 138.3W.
24SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 996 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z AND 251000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-24 08:46

WTPZ43 KNHC 240842 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1100 PM HST MON SEP 23 2019

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF KIKO IS
NO LONGER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. INSTEAD,
INCREASING SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE DECREASING, AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT, WHICH
AGREES BEST WITH RECENT 40-45 KT ASCAT DATA.

KIKO IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. BY
WEDNESDAY, KIKO IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTH-OF-WEST AS THE SHALLOWER SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE,
EXCEPT ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD ON DAYS 2-3.

THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHEAR, MARGINAL WATER TEMPERATURES, AND
A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. GUIDANCE TONIGHT HAS ACCELERATED THE
TRANSITION INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW, WITH EVERYTHING NOW
SHOWING POST-TROPICAL STATUS BY 48 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST IS
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE MODELS, AND
COULD BE TOO SLOW IN SHOWING THE STORM'S DEMISE. STILL, KIKO HAS
BEEN ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS AND SHOULD ENTER THE TOP 10 IN
LONGEST-LIVED EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 17.5N 138.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

>

2019-09-24 08:45

WTPZ43 KNHC 240842
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Satellite and microwave data indicate that the center of Kiko is
no longer in the middle of the central dense overcast. Instead,
increasing shear has caused the low-level center to be displaced to
the southwestern edge of the deep convection. Intensity estimates
are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which
agrees best with recent 40-45 kt ASCAT data.

Kiko is moving northwestward at 9 kt. The storm is expected to turn
to the west-northwest on Tuesday in the flow between a mid-level
ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to the west. By
Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west and eventually
south-of-west as the shallower system is steered by the low-level
trade winds. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one,
except adjusted southward on days 2-3.

The storm should continue to weaken over the next few days due to
persistent south-southwest shear, marginal water temperatures, and
a dry mid-level environment. Guidance tonight has accelerated the
transition into a non-convective remnant low, with everything now
showing post-tropical status by 48 hours. The new forecast is
lower than the previous one, following the trend in the models, and
could be too slow in showing the storm's demise. Still, Kiko has
been one for the record books and should enter the top 10 in
longest-lived eastern Pacific tropical cyclones by midday Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 17.5N 138.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 18.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 19.4N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 19.7N 142.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 19.5N 143.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-24 08:41

WTPZ33 KNHC 240838
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1100 PM HST MON SEP 23 2019

...KIKO HOPEFULLY ON THE WAY TO ITS FINAL DEMISE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 138.2W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 138.2 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEN WEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS,
AND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-24 08:40

WTPZ23 KNHC 240837
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 138.2W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 138.2W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 137.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.5N 139.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.4N 140.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.7N 142.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.5N 143.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 138.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

2019-09-24 03:03

WTPN31 PHNC 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 047//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 047
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 137.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 137.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.0N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.1N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.7N 141.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.8N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.5N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.5N 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
240400Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 137.7W.
24SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1037 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. //
NNNN

>

2019-09-24 02:41

WTPZ43 KNHC 240239 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
500 PM HST MON SEP 23 2019

EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE
INITIAL PRESENCE OF AN EYE DEVELOPING. SINCE THAT TIME, THE
GRADIENT OF THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHARP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, WITH THAT CIRRUS CLOUDS NOW COVERING THE EYE-LIKE
FEATURE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE ANTICIPATED SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER
THE CYCLONE COULD BE BEGINNING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50
KT, AND THIS IS BASED OFF A COMBINATION OF THE AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

KIKO IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. KIKO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, AND THAT MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST. BY WEDNESDAY, KIKO IS EXPECTED TO TURN
BACK TO THE WEST AS THE SHALLOWER SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, KIKO IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BY TOMORROW NIGHT.

SINCE IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR OVER
THE STORM, THE FORECAST NO LONGER CALLS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH
MORE TOMORROW, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTRAIN DRY AND STABLE
MARINE AIR TO ITS WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND
TO BEGIN, AND BY WEDNESDAY, KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION, AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. OTHER THAN REMOVING THE NEAR TERM INTENSIFICATION, THE

>

2019-09-24 02:41

WTPZ43 KNHC 240239
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Earlier this afternoon, infrared satellite imagery showed the
initial presence of an eye developing. Since that time, the
gradient of the convection has become sharp over the southwestern
semicircle, with that cirrus clouds now covering the eye-like
feature. This suggests that the anticipated southerly shear over
the cyclone could be beginning. The initial intensity remains at 50
kt, and this is based off a combination of the available subjective
and objective intensity estimates.

Kiko is moving northwestward at 10 kt. There is no change to the
forecast track philosophy. Kiko is expected to turn to the
northwest tonight, and that motion should continue through Tuesday
in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to
upper-level low to its west. By Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn
back to the west as the shallower system is steered by the the
low-level trade winds. Based on the current forecast track, Kiko is
expected to enter the central Pacific basin by tomorrow night.

Since it now appears that the shear is beginning to occur over
the storm, the forecast no longer calls for any additional
strengthening. The southerly shear is expected to increase much
more tomorrow, and the system should begin to entrain dry and stable
marine air to its west. This is expected to cause a weakening trend
to begin, and by Wednesday, Kiko is expected to become a tropical
depression, and it will likely become a remnant low shortly
thereafter. Other than removing the near term intensification, the
official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 17.0N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 18.0N 138.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 19.7N 141.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 19.8N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 19.5N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z 19.5N 146.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-24 02:39

WTPZ33 KNHC 240237
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
500 PM HST MON SEP 23 2019

...KIKO EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 137.5W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 137.5 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THEN WEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY, AND KIKO SHOULD
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY WEDNESDAY, AND DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-24 02:39

WTPZ23 KNHC 240237
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 137.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 137.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 137.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 138.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.7N 141.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.8N 142.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.5N 146.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 137.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-23 21:14

WTPN31 PHNC 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 046 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 046
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 136.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 136.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.9N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.1N 138.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.1N 140.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.5N 141.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.2N 143.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.0N 145.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
232200Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 136.6W.
23SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1106 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT ARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) OR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. //
NNNN

>

2019-09-23 20:34

WTPZ43 KNHC 232031 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1100 AM HST MON SEP 23 2019

NOT ONLY DOES KIKO REFUSE TO GO AWAY, BUT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CYCLONE IS STRENGTHENING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES
REVEAL THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE STORM IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER, AND ACCORDINGLY, THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED THIS CYCLE. A BLEND OF
THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES YIELD AN INTENSITY
OF ABOUT 50 KT. HOPEFULLY ASCAT DATA WILL PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THE CYCLONE'S INTENSITY AND SIZE LATER TODAY.

KIKO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT, WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST.
ON WEDNESDAY, KIKO IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE SHALLOW SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, KIKO IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE THROUGH TONIGHT,
BUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY. KIKO IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON WEDNESDAY, AND IT
WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE

>

2019-09-23 20:34

WTPZ33 KNHC 232030
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1100 AM HST MON SEP 23 2019

...KIKO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 136.5W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THAT MOTION
CONTINUING ON TUESDAY. A TURN TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT, BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND KIKO IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-23 20:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 232030
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 136.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.1N 140.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 141.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.2N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 145.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 136.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-23 20:33

WTPZ43 KNHC 232031
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Not only does Kiko refuse to go away, but satellite images indicate
that the cyclone is strengthening. Recent microwave images
reveal that the inner core of the storm is a little better
organized than it was earlier, and accordingly, the latest
satellite intensity estimates have increased this cycle. A blend of
the objective and subjective satellite estimates yield an intensity
of about 50 kt. Hopefully ASCAT data will provide more information
about the cyclone's intensity and size later today.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. A turn to the northwest
is expected to occur by tonight, with that motion continuing
through Tuesday as the system moves in the flow between a mid-level
ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to its west.
On Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west or
west-southwest as the shallow system moves in the low-level
trade winds. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on
the current forecast track, Kiko is expected to enter the
central Pacific basin in about 36 hours.

The tropical storm could strengthen a little more through tonight,
but a significant increase in southerly shear and drier air should
cause a steady weakening trend to begin on Tuesday. Kiko is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Wednesday, and it
will likely become a remnant low shortly thereafter. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the
short term, but is otherwise unchanged.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.9N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 19.1N 140.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 19.5N 141.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 19.2N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z 19.0N 145.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-23 15:32

WTPN31 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 045
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 15.5N 135.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 135.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.4N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.6N 138.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.0N 139.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.6N 140.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.7N 143.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.3N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 136.0W.
23SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1148 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

2019-09-23 14:46

WTPZ43 KNHC 231443 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
500 AM HST MON SEP 23 2019

KIKO'S CONVECTION HAS DRAMATICALLY INCREASED THIS MORNING, AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED IN TURN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BACK UP TO 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE FIXES THAT RANGE FROM 40 TO 55 KT.

KIKO'S SMALL SIZE IS LIKELY MAKING IT PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS, SO IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME HOW
LONG THIS UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE. IT APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL
STORM HAS A CHANCE TO INTENSIFY SOME MORE TODAY WHILE IT IS LOCATED
IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SSTS. HOWEVER,
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL ONCE
AGAIN AFFECT THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 H, AND WEAKENING IS STILL
ANTICIPATED FROM THAT TIME ONWARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SHOW
KIKO BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 H, AND IT
COULD DISSIPATE A COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THAT. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AT 12 H, BUT CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KIKO APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/7 KT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT KIKO WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WEAKENS YET AGAIN. AROUND 72 H, KIKO IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.
THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND

>

2019-09-23 14:45

WTPZ43 KNHC 231443
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Kiko's convection has dramatically increased this morning, and
satellite intensity estimates have increased in turn. The initial
intensity is back up to 45 kt based on a blend of objective and
subjective fixes that range from 40 to 55 kt.

Kiko's small size is likely making it particularly susceptible to
short-term intensity fluctuations, so it is unclear at this time how
long this upward trend will continue. It appears that the tropical
storm has a chance to intensify some more today while it is located
in a relatively low shear environment and over warm SSTs. However,
the global models indicate that strong southwesterly shear will once
again affect the cyclone in about 24 h, and weakening is still
anticipated from that time onward. The dynamical models all show
Kiko becoming a post-tropical remnant low in about 72 h, and it
could dissipate a couple of days after that. The NHC intensity
forecast is above most of the guidance at 12 h, but closely follows
the intensity consensus through the rest of the forecast period.

Kiko appears to have turned west-northwestward and the initial
motion is a rather uncertain 285/7 kt. The models are in good
agreement that Kiko will move generally west-northwestward to
northwestward for the next couple of days as the subtropical ridge
weakens yet again. Around 72 h, Kiko is forecast to turn westward or
west-southwestward as it is steered by the low-level tradewind flow.
The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and
closely follows the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 15.7N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.4N 136.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 17.6N 138.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 19.0N 139.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.7N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-23 14:44

WTPZ33 KNHC 231442
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
500 AM HST MON SEP 23 2019

...KIKO RESTRENGTHENS AS IT INCHES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 135.8W
ABOUT 1755 MI...2825 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 135.8 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY. KIKO COULD BEGIN TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN A FEW
DAYS AS IT WEAKENS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY AND KIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-23 14:44

WTPZ23 KNHC 231442
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 135.8W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 135.8W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.4N 136.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.6N 138.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 139.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.7N 143.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 135.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-23 09:41

WTPN31 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 044
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 134.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 134.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.8N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.9N 137.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.1N 138.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.2N 140.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.3N 142.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.2N 143.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 135.4W.
23SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1183 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-23 09:01

WTPZ43 KNHC 230859 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 22 2019

GOES-17 ENHANCE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER METOP-A AMSU PASS
SHOW THAT RESILIENT KIKO IS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH ASSOCIATED -77C COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE SURFACE
CENTER. THESE CONVECTIVE BURSTS, BASED ON THE TAFB AND SAB
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, ARE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ITS TROPICAL
STORM STATUS OF 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND FV3GFS DECAY SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY MODELS SHOW KIKO BRIEFLY RE-STRENGTHENING AS IT
CONTINUES MOVING OVER WARM SSTS AND IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND, AND KIKO IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN 3 DAYS WITH
DISSIPATION OCCURING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, OR 255/8
KT, JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST. KIKO IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON MONDAY, AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CUTS OFF, FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AT THE 72
HOUR PERIOD, AS THE CYCLONE DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY SHALLOW
REMNANT LOW, KIKO SHOULD, ONCE AGAIN, TURN BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 15.5N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

>

2019-09-23 09:01

WTPZ43 KNHC 230859
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

GOES-17 enhance infrared imagery and an earlier METOP-A AMSU pass
show that resilient Kiko is producing intermittent bursts of deep
convection with associated -77C cold cloud tops near the surface
center. These convective bursts, based on the TAFB and SAB
intensity estimates, are substantial enough to maintain its tropical
storm status of 35 kt for this advisory.

Both the ECMWF and FV3GFS Decay SHIPS statistical-dynamical
intensity models show Kiko briefly re-strengthening as it
continues moving over warm SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind
environment. By Tuesday afternoon, increasing southwesterly shear
and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko is
forecast to become a remnant low in less than 3 days with
dissipation occuring by the end of the forecast period.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 255/8
kt, just south of due west. Kiko is expected to turn westward to
west-northwestward on Monday, and then northwestward on Tuesday as a
high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough cuts off, from the
upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the cyclone. At the 72
hour period, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically shallow
remnant low, Kiko should, once again, turn back toward the southwest
within the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC track forecast is
close to the previous advisory and based on a blend of the various
multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 15.5N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.8N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 19.2N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 19.3N 142.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0600Z 18.2N 143.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-23 08:37

WTPZ33 KNHC 230835
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 22 2019

...KIKO MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...
...SOME STRENGTHENING LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 135.3W
ABOUT 1730 MI...2785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 135.3 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY, BUT IT
IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH WEAKENING COMMENCING ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-23 08:29

WTPZ23 KNHC 230827
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.3W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.3W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 134.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.8N 136.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.2N 140.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.3N 142.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.2N 143.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 135.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-23 02:57

WTPN31 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 043
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 134.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 134.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.4N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.3N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.7N 138.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.6N 139.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.2N 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.0N 142.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.1N 142.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
230400Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 134.6W.
23SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1225 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-23 02:37

WTPZ43 KNHC 230235 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
500 PM HST SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE'S BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN KIKO'S CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE HFIP HCCA AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THERE'S STILL A CHANCE THAT KIKO COULD
RE-STRENGTHEN A BIT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
OVER WARM OCEANIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND IN A LOW SHEAR
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND, AND KIKO
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS.

BASED ON A TIMELY 0020 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE PASS, THE INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, OR 240/7 KT, WHICH IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS ADVISORY. KIKO SHOULD
TURN WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON MONDAY, AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
CUTS OFF, FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
KIKO. AROUND DAY 3, AS THE CYCLONE DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY
SHALLOW REMNANT LOW, KIKO IS FORECAST TO, ONCE AGAIN, TURN BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWINDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 15.5N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 15.4N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 16.3N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

>

2019-09-23 02:37

WTPZ43 KNHC 230235
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

There's been little change in Kiko's cloud pattern during the past
several hours, and the subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates remain unchanged. Subsequently, the initial intensity is
held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The HFIP HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble intensity
guidance indicate that there's still a chance that Kiko could
re-strengthen a bit during the next 24 hours as it continues moving
over warm oceanic sea surface temperature and in a low shear
surrounding environment. After that time, increasing southwesterly
shear and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko
is forecast to become a remnant low in 3 days.

Based on a timely 0020 UTC SSMI microwave pass, the initial motion
is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 240/7 kt, which is a
little south of the previous forecast. There are no significant
changes to the forecast philosophy for this advisory. Kiko should
turn westward to west-northwestward on Monday, and then
northwestward on Tuesday as a high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough
cuts off, from the upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the
Kiko. Around day 3, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically
shallow remnant low, Kiko is forecast to, once again, turn back
toward the southwest within the low-level tradewinds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 15.5N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 15.4N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 16.3N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 17.7N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 18.6N 139.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z 18.0N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0000Z 17.1N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-23 02:37

WTPZ33 KNHC 230234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
500 PM HST SUN SEP 22 2019

...KIKO EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RE-STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 134.5W
ABOUT 1680 MI...2705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 134.5 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY, BUT IT
IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH WEAKENING COMMENCING ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-23 02:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 230233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 134.5W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 134.5W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 134.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.4N 135.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.3N 136.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.7N 138.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.6N 139.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 141.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 142.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 17.1N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 134.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-22 21:09

WTPN31 PHNC 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 042
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 133.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 133.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.7N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.0N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.2N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.5N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.0N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.5N 141.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.5N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 134.0W.
22SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1244 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-22 20:38

WTPZ43 KNHC 222035
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1100 AM HST SUN SEP 22 2019

NOT MUCH CAN BE ADDED TO KIKO AFTER NEARLY 10 DAYS DESCRIBING THE
CYCLONE. IT STILL CONSISTS OF A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KTS. KIKO HAS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT IN ONE OF THOSE BURST, BUT
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR KIKO TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS
IT CROSSES THE END OF OUR DOMAIN.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS STEERED BY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED TRADES. KIKO WILL CONTINUE
SWINGING SOUTH OF WEST AND NORTH OF DUE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PULSES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 16.1N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 15.7N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 17.2N 137.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 19.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-22 20:36

WTPZ33 KNHC 222034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1100 AM HST SUN SEP 22 2019

...KIKO REFUSES TO GO AWAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 133.9W
ABOUT 1630 MI...2620 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 133.9 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A SWINGING
MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-22 20:36

WTPZ23 KNHC 222034
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 133.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 134.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.2N 137.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 133.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-22 15:33

WTPN31 PHNC 221600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 041
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 133.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 133.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.9N 134.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.8N 135.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.6N 136.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.9N 137.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.4N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.7N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.5N 141.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221600Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 133.6W.
22SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1260 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z, 231000Z AND 231600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-22 14:54

WTPZ43 KNHC 221452
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
500 AM HST SUN SEP 22 2019

A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO PULSATE NEAR
THE CENTER OF KIKO OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THE MOST RECENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB STILL SUPPORT
WINDS OF 35 KT, AND THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. KIKO
HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER WIND
SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 H. AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND
KIKO IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS.

KIKO IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY. KIKO SHOULD
CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY, BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD, AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CUTS OFF
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER KIKO WEAKENS TO A REMNANT
LOW, IT SHOULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN AS IT IS STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 16.5N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.6N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.9N 137.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 19.4N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 18.7N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-22 14:54

WTPZ33 KNHC 221452
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
500 AM HST SUN SEP 22 2019

...TENACIOUS KIKO HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 133.5W
ABOUT 1595 MI...2565 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT, BUT IT IS
FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH WEAKENING ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-22 14:53

WTPZ23 KNHC 221451
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 133.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 133.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 133.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.6N 136.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.9N 137.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.4N 139.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.7N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 133.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-22 09:36

WTPN31 PHNC 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 040
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 132.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 132.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.3N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.7N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.0N 136.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.3N 137.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.5N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.0N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.0N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221000Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 133.0W.
22SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1252 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-22 09:01

WTPZ43 KNHC 220858 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1100 PM HST SAT SEP 21 2019

A SMALL BUT GROWING BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RESUMED NEAR THE
CENTER OF KIKO, BUT THE CYCLONE IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN EARLIER
TODAY. ASCAT DATA INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30-35 KT, AND
35 KT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS, KIKO
HAS A CHANCE TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS IN A
LIGHTER SHEAR REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TENACIOUS KIKO INTENSIFYING ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, KIKO SHOULD
RESUME WEAKENING AGAIN IN ABOUT 3 DAYS DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS, AND HOPEFULLY THE NEXT 48 HOURS
ARE THE LAST HURRAH OF KIKO.

KIKO IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE STORM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOSE LATITUDE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
THE ORIENTATION OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THAT TIME,
THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN INCOMING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO CUT OFF EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CAUSING KIKO TO TURN
SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD ON DAYS 2-4. ONCE A REMNANT LOW, KIKO IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW, CAUSING IT TO TURN BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SINUOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND, IF KIKO SURVIVES AS LONG AS PREDICTED BELOW, IT
WOULD END UP ONE OF THE 10 LONGEST-LASTING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN
EASTERN PACIFIC HISTORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 17.0N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 16.3N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

>

2019-09-22 09:00

WTPZ43 KNHC 220858
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019

A small but growing burst of deep convection has resumed near the
center of Kiko, but the cyclone is considerably weaker than earlier
today. ASCAT data indicated maximum winds of 30-35 kt, and
35 kt will be the initial intensity. Within about 24 hours, Kiko
has a chance to re-strengthen as it moves over warmer waters in a
lighter shear region. Model agreement is in fairly good agreement
on tenacious Kiko intensifying once again. However, Kiko should
resume weakening again in about 3 days due to a significant
increase in shear and cooler waters, and hopefully the next 48 hours
are the last hurrah of Kiko.

Kiko is moving southwestward tonight at about 7 kt. The storm
should continue to lose latitude for about the next 24 hours due to
the orientation of a ridge to the northwest. After that time,
the western portion of an incoming mid-latitude trough is forecast
to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn
sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then
expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back
to the southwest. No significant changes were made to the sinuous
forecast track and, if Kiko survives as long as predicted below, it
would end up one of the 10 longest-lasting tropical cyclones in
eastern Pacific history.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 17.0N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 16.3N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-22 09:00

WTPZ33 KNHC 220857
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1100 PM HST SAT SEP 21 2019

...KIKO WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 132.9W
ABOUT 1545 MI...2485 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 132.9 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN LATE SUNDAY, BUT IS
FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH WEAKENING ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-22 09:00

WTPZ23 KNHC 220856
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 132.9W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 132.9W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 132.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 133.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 135.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 132.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-22 03:46

WTPN31 PHNC 220400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 039
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 17.8N 132.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 132.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.8N 133.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.0N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.8N 135.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.5N 136.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.8N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.2N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.1N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
220400Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 132.5W.
22SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1206 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-22 02:44

WTPZ43 KNHC 220241 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
500 PM HST SAT SEP 21 2019

KIKO IS ONLY PRODUCING A RELATIVELY SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS CENTER, THE RESULT OF CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT
BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THE MAXIMUM
WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN. GIVEN KIKO'S STRUCTURE AND ITS
ENVIRONMENT, SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD, TOWARD SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATERS, AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING IN
36-48 HOURS, WHICH IS SHOWN BY MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING
AFTER 48 HOURS, AND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW BY DAY 5, IF NOT SOONER.

KIKO IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, OR 240/7
KT. AN ELONGATED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CALIFORNIA TO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD, WHICH
IS FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE--AND KIKO--TO LOSE LATITUDE DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CAUSING
KIKO TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD ON DAYS 2-4. ONCE A REMNANT LOW,
KIKO IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW, CAUSING IT
TO TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST WERE MADE ON THIS CYCLE, AND IT STILL DEPICTS A
WAVE-LIKE TRAJECTORY THROUGH DAY 5, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR

>

2019-09-22 02:43

WTPZ43 KNHC 220241
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019

Kiko is only producing a relatively small patch of deep convection
to the northeast of its center, the result of continued
southwesterly shear and the cyclone moving through what appears to
be a stable environment. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt
based on the earlier ASCAT data, but it's possible the maximum
winds have decreased since then. Given Kiko's structure and its
environment, some weakening is expected during the next day or so.
However, the cyclone is moving southwestward, toward slightly
warmer waters, and this could allow for some restrengthening in
36-48 hours, which is shown by many of the intensity models.
Another round of shear and cooler waters should lead to weakening
after 48 hours, and Kiko is expected to degenerate into a remnant
low by day 5, if not sooner.

Kiko is moving a little faster toward the west-southwest, or 240/7
kt. An elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from
California to near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which
is forcing the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during
the next 36 hours. After that time, the western portion of the
trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing
Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low,
Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it
to turn back to the southwest. Only small adjustments to the NHC
track forecast were made on this cycle, and it still depicts a
wave-like trajectory through day 5, as has been the case for
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.5N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 16.8N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.0N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 18.8N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 19.2N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 18.1N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-22 02:41

WTPZ33 KNHC 220238
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
500 PM HST SAT SEP 21 2019

...KIKO STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 132.5W
ABOUT 1510 MI...2430 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A MOTION
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-22 02:41

WTPZ23 KNHC 220237
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 132.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.8N 133.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.8N 138.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 139.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.1N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 132.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2019-09-21 20:36

WTPZ43 KNHC 212033 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 21 2019

A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES WITHIN THE PAST 2-3 HOURS REVEALED MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 40-45 KT, SO KIKO'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT FROM UNDER THE
CONVECTIVE CIRRUS, AND THE CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ACCORDING TO ANALYSES FROM
UW-CIMMS, ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE A BIT
AS KIKO LOSES LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ON THE NEGATIVE
SIDE, KIKO WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR
MASS, AND THESE CONDITIONS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION
THE CYCLONE IS ABLE TO PRODUCE. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND THE HCCA MODEL, KEEPING A
RELATIVELY STEADY INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5,
AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOULD LEAD TO
WEAKENING, AND SIMULATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT KIKO'S DEEP CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE FOR
GOOD BY THAT TIME. AS A RESULT, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS
KIKO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

KIKO IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, OR 250/4 KT. AN
ELONGATED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA TO
NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD, WHICH IS FORCING
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE--AND KIKO--TO LOSE LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS

>

2019-09-21 20:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 212033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

A pair of ASCAT passes within the past 2-3 hours revealed maximum
winds of 40-45 kt, so Kiko's intensity has been lowered to 45 kt.
The low-level center appears to be moving out from under the
convective cirrus, and the cloud-top temperatures have been warming
significantly for much of the day. According to analyses from
UW-CIMMS, about 15 kt of southwesterly shear is affecting the
cyclone, but there is a chance that the shear will decrease a bit
as Kiko loses latitude during the next 36 hours. On the negative
side, Kiko will remain in a relatively dry and somewhat stable air
mass, and these conditions could limit the amount of deep convection
the cyclone is able to produce. The new NHC intensity forecast is
very close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model, keeping a
relatively steady intensity for the next 3 days. By days 4 and 5,
an increase in shear and lower oceanic heat content should lead to
weakening, and simulated infrared satellite imagery from the GFS
and ECMWF suggest that Kiko's deep convection may dissipate for
good by that time. As a result, the official forecast now shows
Kiko becoming a remnant low by day 5.

Kiko is now moving slowly west-southwestward, or 250/4 kt. An
elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from California to
near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which is forcing
the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during the next
36 hours. After that time, the western portion of the trough is
forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to
turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko
is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to
turn back to the southwest. The updated NHC track is a little
farther south during the first 2 days to account for the adjusted
initial position, otherwise it's very close the previous forecast
and the various multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 18.0N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 17.4N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 16.5N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 18.3N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 19.0N 138.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 17.7N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-21 20:34

WTPZ33 KNHC 212032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...KIKO NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 131.6W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 131.6 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A motion
toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through
Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday
and Tuesday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-21 20:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 212032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.6W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 45SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.6W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 132.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.5N 133.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 135.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.3N 137.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 138.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.7N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 131.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-21 14:56

WTPZ43 KNHC 211453
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

A couple of recent microwave images shows that the low and
mid-level centers of Kiko are not vertically aligned due to some
southwesterly shear. The center is located beneath the cold cloud
tops, but is near the southwestern edge of the convective mass.
Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from both agencies and
SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS are between 50-55 kt, therefore the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt but this could be a little
generous. Little overall change in strength is foreast during
the next couple of days while Kiko remains over SSTs of 26-27C and
in generally low shear conditions. After that time, increasing
southerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are
likely to cause gradual weakening. The updated NHC wind speed
forecast is very close to the previous advisory.

It appears that Kiko has turned westward or 270/3 kt. A narrow
mid-level ridge to north of Kiko is forecast to strengthen today,
which is expected to cause the cyclone to turn southwestward later
today. A southwestward motion should continue for a couple of days,
but the dynamical models weaken the ridge after that time, and Kiko
is likely to turn back northwestward early next week. The track
guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario and the NHC
forecast lies near the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 18.4N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-21 14:55

WTPZ43 KNHC 211453 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 21 2019

A COUPLE OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF KIKO ARE NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED DUE TO SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE CENTER IS LOCATED BENEATH THE COLD CLOUD
TOPS, BUT IS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES AND
SATCON ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS ARE BETWEEN 50-55 KT, THEREFORE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FOREAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE KIKO REMAINS OVER SSTS OF 26-27C AND
IN GENERALLY LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING
SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE UPDATED NHC WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

IT APPEARS THAT KIKO HAS TURNED WESTWARD OR 270/3 KT. A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO NORTH OF KIKO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD LATER
TODAY. A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS,
BUT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AFTER THAT TIME, AND KIKO
IS LIKELY TO TURN BACK NORTHWESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE NHC
FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 18.4N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

>

2019-09-21 14:55

WTPZ23 KNHC 211452 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 131.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 131.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 130.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

>

2019-09-21 14:54

WTPZ33 KNHC 211452
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...KIKO TURNS WESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES ITS ENDURING TREK ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 131.1W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 131.1 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A west-southwestward
motion is expected to begin later today, and this general motion
should continue through Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is possible during the next day or
two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-21 14:54

WTPZ23 KNHC 211452
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 131.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 131.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 130.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 131.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-21 10:12

WTPN31 PHNC 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 036
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 130.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 130.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.6N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.0N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.2N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.7N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.3N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.9N 137.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.6N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211000Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 130.7W.
21SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-21 09:03

WTPZ43 KNHC 210900
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 21 2019

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT BASED ON RECENT DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QUICK WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
MARGINAL SSTS AND INTO A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, EXCEPT THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD STEADY FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO FORECAST VERY LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02 KT. DESPITE THIS MOST
RECENT SLOW NORTHWARD JOG, THE NEW NHC GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS KIKO
TURNING WESTWARD LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY AN UNUSUAL WAVE-LIKE
MOTION AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FLUCTUATES IN STRENGTH DURING
THE 5-DAY PERIOD. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS
AIDS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 130.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-21 09:01

WTPZ33 KNHC 210859
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 21 2019

...KIKO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
..EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 130.3W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.3 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-21 09:00

WTPZ23 KNHC 210858 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.3W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.3W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 130.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W

>

2019-09-21 09:00

WTPZ23 KNHC 210858
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.3W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.3W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 130.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 130.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-21 03:20

WTPN31 PHNC 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 035
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 130.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 130.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.3N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.0N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.2N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.6N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.5N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.5N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.5N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210400Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 130.6W.
21SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1124 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND 220400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-21 02:41

WTPZ43 KNHC 210237 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 20 2019

A 2145Z AMSR2 OVERPASS FROM GCOM-W1 SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE DISPLACED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
WERE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE LATEST SATCON ESTIMATE
FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 56 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE ABOVE-MENTIONED AMSR2 PASS AND A PARTIAL SSMIS PASS AT 2355Z
SHOWED THE CENTER OF KIKO WAS LOCATED FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED. AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WORKING BEST TRACK, THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/04. THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS KIKO
MOVING ON A WAVE-LIKE TRAJECTORY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
FLUCTUATES IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS AND SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST, BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER, TRENDING TOWARD THE
SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS. THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, BY DAY 5, WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER 400 N MI APART, SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS QUICK WEAKENING WITH KIKO, AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN A SOMEWHAT STABLE AND
DRY ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD, AND IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 18.3N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 18.0N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

>

2019-09-21 02:40

WTPZ43 KNHC 210237
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A 2145Z AMSR2 overpass from GCOM-W1 showed a mid-level eye displaced
to the northwest of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications
were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate
from UW-CIMSS was 56 kt, so the initial intensity is set to 55 kt
for this advisory.

The above-mentioned AMSR2 pass and a partial SSMIS pass at 2355Z
showed the center of Kiko was located farther east than previously
estimated. After some adjustments to the working best track, the
initial motion estimate is 325/04. The guidance still shows Kiko
moving on a wave-like trajectory as mid-level ridge to the north
fluctuates in intensity during the forecast period. The new NHC
track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the
previous NHC forecast, but is a little faster, trending toward the
speed of the consensus aids. There is a lot of spread in the model
guidance, by day 5, with the GFS and ECMWF over 400 n mi apart, so
confidence in the details of the track forecast is low especially
late in the forecast period.

All of the intensity guidance shows quick weakening with Kiko, as
the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and in a somewhat stable and
dry atmospheric environment. The new NHC intensity forecast has
been nudged downward, and is near or a little above the latest
intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 18.3N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 18.0N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 17.2N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 18.5N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2019-09-21 02:38

WTPZ33 KNHC 210235
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...KIKO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 130.5W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

2019-09-21 02:37

WTPZ23 KNHC 210234 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.5W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.5W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 130.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.0N 132.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 133.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

>

2019-09-21 02:35

WTPZ23 KNHC 210234
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.5W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.5W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 130.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.0N 132.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 133.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 130.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



>

2019-09-20 21:46

WTPN31 PHNC 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 034
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 130.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 130.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.2N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.1N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.5N 133.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.9N 134.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.5N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.2N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.5N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202200Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 130.9W.
20SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1153 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND 212200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 20:48

WTPZ43 KNHC 202045 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 20 2019

KIKO HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE, BUT CLOUD TOPS
HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE-BASED
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 50 KT, AND THE ESTIMATED
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT THAT VALUE.

KIKO HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST YET AGAIN, AND SHOULD TURN WESTWARD
LATER TODAY. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING. KIKO WILL
LIKELY MOVE ON A WAVE-LIKE PATH WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
LOSING LATITUDE AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AMPLIFIES, AND
GAINING LATITUDE AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IN THE
NHC FORECAST IS THAT KIKO IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN IT WAS BEFORE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW QUICKLY KIKO WILL
MOVE WEST EVEN THOUGH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS THE BASIS
FOR THE NHC FORECAST, HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.

THE TROPICAL STORM MAY HAVE EXHAUSTED ITS OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
NOW THAT IT HAS BEGUN TO TURN BACK WESTWARD, AND ALL OF THE
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THAT KIKO WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN.
THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SAME, BUT MAINTAINS KIKO AS A TROPICAL
STORM, STILL OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC, THROUGH DAY 5. KIKO IS
A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND SMALL SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT
ANTICIPATING SUCH FLUCTUATIONS IS BEYOND THE CURRENT SCIENCE OF
HURRICANE FORECASTING.

>

2019-09-20 20:47

WTPZ43 KNHC 202045
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Kiko hasn't changed much over the past 6 hours. Microwave imagery
continues to show a fairly well-defined inner-core, but cloud tops
have been warming during the past few hours. Satellite-based
estimates continue to hover around 50 kt, and the estimated
intensity is therefore held at that value.

Kiko has turned to the northwest yet again, and should turn westward
later today. There is no change in the forecast reasoning. Kiko will
likely move on a wave-like path westward for the next several days,
losing latitude as a mid-level ridge to the north amplifies, and
gaining latitude as the ridge weakens. The only difference in the
NHC forecast is that Kiko is forecast to move very slightly faster
than it was before. It should be noted that there is still a decent
amount of spread in the guidance regarding how quickly Kiko will
move west even though the multi-model consensus, which is the basis
for the NHC forecast, has not changed much.

The tropical storm may have exhausted its opportunity to strengthen
now that it has begun to turn back westward, and all of the
reliable intensity guidance forecasts that Kiko will slowly weaken.
The NHC forecast shows the same, but maintains Kiko as a tropical
storm, still over the eastern North Pacific, through day 5. Kiko is
a small tropical cyclone, and small short-term fluctuations in
intensity are certainly possible during the next few days, but
anticipating such fluctuations is beyond the current science of
hurricane forecasting.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 17.9N 130.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 18.1N 132.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 16.9N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 16.5N 136.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 18.2N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 18.5N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-20 20:47

WTPZ33 KNHC 202044
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...KIKO CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 130.8W
ABOUT 1395 MI...2245 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.8 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-20 20:45

WTPZ23 KNHC 202043 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 130.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 132.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.9N 134.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 136.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.2N 137.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 139.0W

>

2019-09-20 20:45

WTPZ23 KNHC 202043
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 130.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 132.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.9N 134.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 136.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.2N 137.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 139.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 130.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-20 15:37

WTPN31 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 033
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 130.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 130.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.1N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.3N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.9N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.3N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.9N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.0N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.0N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 130.3W.
20SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1151 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND
211600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 14:50

WTPZ43 KNHC 201447 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 20 2019

A PAIR OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0900 AND 1100 UTC REVEALED THAT
KIKO HAS REDEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL INNER CORE. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM IS
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER, A RESULT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE INTENSITY OF KIKO HAS BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE MOST RECENT TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
ESTIMATES.

KIKO IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
TURN GENERALLY WESTWARD, AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE RIDGE COULD WEAKEN
(AGAIN) AND KIKO COULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD (AGAIN) BUT THE MODELS
VARY ON THE DETAILS OF EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN.
REGARDLESS, KIKO SEEMS DESTINED TO CONTINUE WEAVING ITS WAY SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TRACK FORECAST WERE MADE, WHICH REMAINS NEAR HCCA AND TVCE.

KIKO HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY WHILE IT
CONTINUES ON ITS CURRENT HEADING. AFTER THAT, EVERY INTENSITY MODEL
FORECASTS THAT KIKO WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OR LEVEL OFF, AND THE
NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SAME. ONLY A SMALL TWEAK WAS MADE TO THE NHC
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER INITIAL
INTENSITY OF KIKO, AND THE NEW FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AFTER THAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 17.7N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

>

2019-09-20 14:49

WTPZ43 KNHC 201447
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A pair of microwave images between 0900 and 1100 UTC revealed that
Kiko has redeveloped a well-defined low-level inner core. However,
most of the deep convection associated with the tropical storm is
located northeast of the center, a result of moderate southwesterly
shear. The intensity of Kiko has been raised slightly to 50 kt
based on an average of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak
estimates.

Kiko is now moving north-northwestward, but is still expected to
turn generally westward, and then west-southwestward as a mid-level
ridge builds to the north of the cyclone during the next couple of
days. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge could weaken
(again) and Kiko could turn northwestward (again) but the models
vary on the details of exactly when and where this will happen.
Regardless, Kiko seems destined to continue weaving its way slowly
westward through early next week. Only small adjustments to the
track forecast were made, which remains near HCCA and TVCE.

Kiko has a chance to strengthen a little more today while it
continues on its current heading. After that, every intensity model
forecasts that Kiko will slightly weaken or level off, and the
NHC forecast shows the same. Only a small tweak was made to the NHC
forecast for the first 24 hours to account for the higher initial
intensity of Kiko, and the new forecast is identical to the previous
advisory after that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 17.7N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-20 14:48

WTPZ33 KNHC 201445
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...KIKO ON THE UPSWING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 130.2W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.2 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY, BUT ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-20 14:42

WTPZ23 KNHC 201440 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W

>

2019-09-20 14:41

WTPZ23 KNHC 201440
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 130.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-20 11:01

WTPN31 PHNC 201000 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 032A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 032A CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 129.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 129.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.7N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.9N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.6N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.6N 134.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.0N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.2N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 129.7W.
20SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1187 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 10:29

WTPN31 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 032
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 129.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 129.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.7N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.9N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.6N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.6N 134.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.0N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.2N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 129.7W.
20SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1187 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 08:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 200833 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 20 2019

KIKO HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS
DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ESTIMATED
BY UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT, WHICH IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE
LATEST SATCON ESTIMATE.

KIKO IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
THAT GENERAL DIRECTION THROUGH TODAY. A TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER THAT TIME, THE MODELS
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY, WITH SOME TAKING KIKO NORTHWARD AND OTHERS
WESTWARD. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF KIKO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES AGAIN ROUGHLY NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
AIDS. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT KIKO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS.

SINCE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST, THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF KIKO IS ALSO UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY TRACK DEPENDENT. THE MODELS, IN GENERAL, SHOW
KIKO CHANGING LITTLE IN INTENSITY, AND THE NHC FORECAST DOES

>

2019-09-20 08:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 200833
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The
low-level center is located near the southwestern edge of a
persistent area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is
due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear as estimated
by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in
agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and the
latest SATCON estimate.

Kiko is moving slowly northwestward, and is expected to continue in
that general direction through today. A turn to the west and then
west-southwest is expected this weekend as a mid-level ridge builds
to the northwest of the cyclone. After that time, the models
diverge considerably, with some taking Kiko northward and others
westward. The differences in the models appear to be at least
partially associated with the vertical depth of Kiko early next
week. The NHC track forecast lies again roughly near the middle of
the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus
aids. Although the details of the track forecast are still
uncertain, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly
over the southwestern portion of the east Pacific basin for several
more days.

Since there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast, the
future intensity of Kiko is also uncertain given that the
environment is very track dependent. The models, in general, show
Kiko changing little in intensity, and the NHC forecast does
likewise. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 17.0N 130.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 17.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 17.9N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 17.4N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 17.4N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 18.3N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-20 08:34

WTPZ33 KNHC 200832
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...KIKO EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 130.1W
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A SLOW MOTION BETWEEN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-20 08:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 200832
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 130.1W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 130.1W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 129.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.6N 130.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.9N 132.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 133.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.4N 136.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.3N 137.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-20 04:18

WTPN31 PHNC 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 031
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 129.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 129.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.7N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.9N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.6N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.6N 134.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.0N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.2N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 129.7W.
20SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1187 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 02:55

WTPZ43 KNHC 200253 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2019

KIKO'S STRUCTURE HASN'T CHANGE MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE ASYMMETRIC PATTERN OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHEAR, WHICH UW-CIMMS IS ANALYZING
TO BE ABOUT 20 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.

A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE HAS ALLOWED KIKO TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD, OR 305/5 KT. FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS, THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN AND THEN WEAKEN AGAIN AS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, KIKO IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE A SINUOUS TRACK WHILE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD, STAYING
BETWEEN 16N-18N. EVEN WITH THAT EXPECTATION, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH THE GFS SHOWING KIKO MEANDERING AND THE ECMWF KEEPING THE
CYCLONE ON A DETERMINED WESTWARD COURSE. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY, THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN A BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING KIKO'S STRENGTH DECREASING FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BECAUSE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY, THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS KIKO'S WINDS TO 50 KT IN 12 HOURS,
AND THEN FLATLINES THAT INTENSITY THROUGH DAY 4. WEAKENING IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, IT IS STILL ABOVE THE HCCA MODEL AND

>

2019-09-20 02:55

WTPZ43 KNHC 200253
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Kiko's structure hasn't change much since the previous advisory.
The asymmetric pattern of the convection suggests that the cyclone
is under the influence of some shear, which UW-CIMMS is analyzing
to be about 20 kt from the southwest. The initial intensity is
being maintained at 45 kt based on consensus Dvorak estimates of
T3.0 from TAFB and SAB.

A break in the mid-level steering ridge has allowed Kiko to turn
northwestward, or 305/5 kt. For the next 5 days, the ridge
is expected to restrengthen and then weaken again as a mid- to
upper-level trough digs southward. As a result, Kiko is expected
to take a sinuous track while moving generally westward, staying
between 16N-18N. Even with that expectation, there is significant
divergence in the models toward the end of the forecast period,
with the GFS showing Kiko meandering and the ECMWF keeping the
cyclone on a determined westward course. Because of this
uncertainty, the updated NHC track has been slowed down a bit from
the previous one.

There has been a significant change in the intensity guidance, with
most of the models showing Kiko's strength decreasing for much of
the forecast period. Because there is so much uncertainty, the new
NHC intensity forecast brings Kiko's winds to 50 kt in 12 hours,
and then flatlines that intensity through day 4. Weakening is
possible by the end of the forecast period due to a potential
increase in shear. Even though the updated NHC forecast has been
lowered from the previous one, it is still above the HCCA model and
the multi-model consensus aids, and additional adjustment could be
required in subsequent advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 16.6N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 18.2N 137.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-20 02:54

WTPZ23 KNHC 200251 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 129.6W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 129.6W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 129.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

>

2019-09-20 02:53

WTPZ33 KNHC 200252
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2019

...KIKO LABORING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 129.6W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.6 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW MOTION
BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-20 02:53

WTPZ23 KNHC 200251
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 129.6W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 129.6W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 129.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.2N 137.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 129.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2019-09-19 22:07

WTPN31 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 030
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 129.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 129.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.8N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.5N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.9N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.8N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.0N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.0N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.0N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 129.4W.
19SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1190 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-19 20:49

WTPZ43 KNHC 192045 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2019

IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION (AND LATITUDE) KIKO APPEARS TO HAVE HIT
ROCK BOTTOM AND MAY NOW BE ON ITS WAY BACK UP (AND NORTH). AFTER THE
LAST ADVISORY, KIKO BRIEFLY LOST ALL OF ITS CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
AND CONSISTED OF A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OF CLOUDS. SINCE THEN,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY AND NOW A RAIN BAND
APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
TROPICAL STORM. ASCAT DATA AROUND 1800 UTC SHOWED MAX WINDS OF ONLY
35-40 KT, BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE OF KIKO SINCE
THAT TIME, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 45 KT.

ASIDE FROM SMALL ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY,
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT STRENGTHENING, AND THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE STILL CALLING FOR KIKO TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN. DRY
AIR IS STILL THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR, AND IF KIKO CAN EVER
REFORM A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE, IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY
THAN FORECAST. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, KIKO COULD
ENCOUNTER AN EVEN DRIER ENVIRONMENT AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR WEAKENING.

KIKO IS BEGINNING TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SOON. THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ON A WAVE-LIKE PATH DUE TO FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
STRENGTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
PARTICULARLY POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED KIKO WILL MOVE WEST AND BY

>

2019-09-19 20:48

WTPZ43 KNHC 192045
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

In terms of organization (and latitude) Kiko appears to have hit
rock bottom and may now be on its way back up (and north). After the
last advisory, Kiko briefly lost all of its central deep convection
and consisted of a low-level swirl of clouds. Since then,
convective activity has increased substantially and now a rain band
appears to be trying to wrap around the northern semicircle of the
tropical storm. ASCAT data around 1800 UTC showed max winds of only
35-40 kt, but given the improvement in the structure of Kiko since
that time, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 45 kt.

Aside from small adjustments due to the lower initial intensity,
little change was made to the intensity forecast. Most of the
guidance calls for at least slight strengthening, and the dynamical
models are still calling for Kiko to become a hurricane again. Dry
air is still the primary limiting factor, and if Kiko can ever
reform a well-defined inner-core, it could strengthen more quickly
than forecast. By the end of the forecast period, Kiko could
encounter an even drier environment and most of the guidance calls
for weakening.

Kiko is beginning to turn west-northwestward, and a turn toward the
northwest is expected soon. The tropical storm is still forecast to
move slowly westward on a wave-like path due to fluctuations in the
strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance is in
particularly poor agreement on the speed Kiko will move west and by
day 5 the ECMWF and GFS are 750 mi apart. Although only minor
changes were made to the NHC forecast, which remains near the model
consensus, confidence in the track forecast is much lower than
usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 16.3N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-19 20:48

WTPZ33 KNHC 192045
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2019

...KIKO SMALLER AND WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 129.3W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND KIKO MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-19 20:48

WTPZ23 KNHC 192045 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.3W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 90SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.3W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 129.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

>

2019-09-19 20:46

WTPZ23 KNHC 192045
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.3W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 90SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.3W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 129.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 129.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-19 15:48

WTPN31 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 029 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 029
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 128.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 128.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.4N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.1N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.7N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.8N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.0N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.5N 135.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.0N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 128.8W.
19SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1183 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

>

2019-09-19 14:50

WTPZ43 KNHC 191448 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2019

KIKO HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE STORM REMAINS RELATIVELY COMPACT WITH DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZED
IN BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT, WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATED
THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS RESPOND BY SHOWING THE CYCLONE INTENSIFYING DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. CONVERSELY, THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THOSE SCENARIOS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS AIDS. THIS FORECAST IS A TAD LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE.

KIKO IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF KIKO. A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
STEERING PATTERN FOR KIKO WITH THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
AT 120 H BEING AROUND 500 N MI. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
ROUGHLY NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NOT FAR FROM THE
CONSENSUS AIDS. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT

>

2019-09-19 14:50

WTPZ43 KNHC 191448
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours.
The storm remains relatively compact with deep convection organized
in bands to the north and east of the low-level center. The
initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is near the high end of the
latest satellite intensity estimates. Earlier ASCAT data indicated
that the strongest winds were located to the east of the center.

The storm is expected to be in relatively favorable atmospheric and
oceanic conditions during the next few days, and most of the
dynamical models respond by showing the cyclone intensifying during
that time period. Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show little
change in strength during the next few days. The NHC intensity
forecast lies between those scenarios and is in best agreement with
the consensus aids. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous
one.

Kiko is moving slowly westward, steered by a subtropical ridge to
its north. A turn to the northwest is expected later today in
response to the ridge weakening and a disturbance to the southwest
of Kiko. A west to west-southwest motion is likely over the
weekend as another ridge strengthens to the northwest of the
cyclone. The models continue to struggle on the evolution of the
steering pattern for Kiko with the spread between the GFS and ECMWF
at 120 h being around 500 n mi. The NHC track forecast remains
roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope not far from the
consensus aids. Regardless of the details, it seems likely that
Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern part of the
east Pacific basin for several more days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 16.0N 128.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-19 14:50

WTPZ33 KNHC 191447
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2019

...KIKO HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WELL AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 128.7W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A NORTHWEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
KIKO MAY REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.


TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-19 14:50

WTPZ23 KNHC 191446 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-19 14:48

WTPZ23 KNHC 191446
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 128.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2019-09-19 10:14

WTPN31 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 028
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 128.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 128.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.1N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.6N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.3N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.7N 131.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.1N 132.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.3N 135.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.6N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 128.3W.
19SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1174 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

>

2019-09-19 08:52

WTPZ43 KNHC 190849 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2019

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE THAT THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR UNDERCUTTING KIKO
TONIGHT, WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS FLOW IS LIKELY FEEDING
SOME DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, AND THESE FACTORS COULD EXPLAIN WHY
KIKO HAS NOT BEEN INTENSIFYING RECENTLY. THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AS WELL AS SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THAT THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT.

DESPITE THE FORECAST FOR SHEAR TO BE GENERALLY RELAXED, KIKO WILL
HAVE TO OVERCOME DRY AND STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTH AND WEST THAT MAY
KEEP ENTRAINING INTO THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SHOW SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AND, DUE TO THE MIXED
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SIGNALS FOR INTENSIFICATION, THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND GRADUALLY BRINGS KIKO TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 36 HOURS, AND INTENSIFIES IT JUST A
LITTLE MORE AFTER THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS VERY
NEAR THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD AT 5 KT. A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KIKO WILL ALLOW FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RIDGING WILL REBUILD
TO THE NORTHWEST OF KIKO AFTER THAT TIME, WHICH WILL INDUCE A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THAT RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN, RESULTING IN A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE MAIN

>

2019-09-19 08:51

WTPZ43 KNHC 190849
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Water vapor satellite imagery as well as satellite-derived winds
indicate that there is some southwesterly shear undercutting Kiko
tonight, with a large upper level trough digging several hundred
miles to the northwest of the cyclone. This flow is likely feeding
some dry air into the system, and these factors could explain why
Kiko has not been intensifying recently. The objective Dvorak
estimate from TAFB as well as subjective intensity estimates suggest
that the initial advisory intensity remains at 55 kt.

Despite the forecast for shear to be generally relaxed, Kiko will
have to overcome dry and stable air to its north and west that may
keep entraining into the cyclone's circulation in the coming days.
The majority of the intensity guidance only show some slight
strengthening over the next several days. And, due to the mixed
positive and negative signals for intensification, the official
forecast agrees with this scenario and gradually brings Kiko to
hurricane strength in about 36 hours, and intensifies it just a
little more after that time. The official forecast intensity is very
near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

The initial motion is westward at 5 kt. A developing weakness in the
ridge to the northwest of Kiko will allow for a west-northwest to
northwest motion over the next couple of days. Ridging will rebuild
to the northwest of Kiko after that time, which will induce a
west-southwestward motion. Late in the forecast period, that ridge
will weaken, resulting in a turn back to the northwest. The main
change to the official forecast track was to nudge it a little to
the right, as the well performing ECMWF has shifted quite a bit
northward on the latest run. The official forecast now lies on the
southern edge of the clustered consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 128.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.1N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 17.1N 132.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 16.3N 135.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 17.6N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-19 08:51

WTPZ33 KNHC 190848
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2019

...KIKO MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 128.2W
ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.2 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
KIKO MAY RE-GAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-19 08:51

WTPZ23 KNHC 190848 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 128.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 128.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 132.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-19 08:50

WTPZ23 KNHC 190848
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 128.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 128.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 132.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 135.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 137.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 128.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-19 03:29

WTPN31 PHNC 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 027
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 127.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 127.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.9N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.2N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.7N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.2N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.1N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.1N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.0N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190400Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 127.8W.
19SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1161 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-19 02:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 190231 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2019

KIKO'S APPEARANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS VERY LIGHT, AT LEAST SOME DRY AIR
APPEARS BE GETTING INTO THE INNER CORE OF THE TROPICAL STORM,
LIMITING KIKO'S DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT BASED
ON THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS SATCON AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

BOTH DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS (HWRF AND HMON) SHOW THAT KIKO WILL
EVENTUALLY REFORM AN INNER CONVECTIVE CORE AND STRENGTHEN, BUT DO
SO SEVERAL DAYS APART. IT SEEMS LIKELY, GIVEN THE LIGHT SHEAR AND
WARM SSTS BENEATH THE TROPICAL STORM, THAT KIKO WILL RESTRENGTHEN
AT SOME POINT. THAT SAID, DETERMINING THE EXACT TIMING IS PROBABLY
BEYOND OUR CURRENT ABILITY TO FORECAST TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS SHOWN BY HCCA, BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
KIKO IS NEARLY STEADY-STATE FOR A DAY OR TWO, AND THEN STRENGTHENS
AT A FASTER RATE THAN EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS THEREFORE SOMEWHAT LOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/5 KT. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST. OSCILLATIONS IN THE STRENGTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH KIKO SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD IN A DAY OR SO, AND THEN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ANOTHER
DAY AFTER THAT. AFTER KIKO REACHES THE CREST OF ITS CURVY PATH, IT
IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD YET AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUCH AN UNUSUAL

>

2019-09-19 02:34

WTPZ43 KNHC 190231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Kiko's appearance has not changed substantially during the past 6
hours. Although the wind shear is very light, at least some dry air
appears be getting into the inner core of the tropical storm,
limiting Kiko's deep convection. The intensity remains 55 kt based
on the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON and subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates.

Both dynamical intensity models (HWRF and HMON) show that Kiko will
eventually reform an inner convective core and strengthen, but do
so several days apart. It seems likely, given the light shear and
warm SSTs beneath the tropical storm, that Kiko will restrengthen
at some point. That said, determining the exact timing is probably
beyond our current ability to forecast tropical cyclone intensity.
The NHC intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the
next several days, as shown by HCCA, but I would not be surprised if
Kiko is nearly steady-state for a day or two, and then strengthens
at a faster rate than expected. Confidence in the intensity forecast
is therefore somewhat low.

The initial motion is now 265/5 kt. Little change was made to the
NHC track forecast. Oscillations in the strength of a mid-level
ridge to the north Kiko should cause the cyclone to turn
northwestward in a day or so, and then back toward the west another
day after that. After Kiko reaches the crest of its curvy path, it
is expected to turn southwestward yet again by the weekend. The
model guidance is in remarkably good agreement for such an unusual
track and the NHC forecast remains near the multi-model consensus,
with a little extra emphasis placed on the ECMWF which has thus far
handled the forecast of Kiko quite well.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 15.8N 127.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 15.9N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 16.7N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 17.2N 130.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 17.1N 132.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 16.1N 134.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-19 02:33

WTPZ33 KNHC 190230
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2019

...KIKO HEADING WEST ONCE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 127.8W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A WESTWARD TRACK IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. KIKO IS THEN FORECAST
TO TURN WESTWARD YET AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND KIKO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-19 02:33

WTPZ23 KNHC 190230 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 128.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 130.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.2N 130.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.1N 132.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-19 02:32

WTPZ23 KNHC 190230
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 128.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 130.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.2N 130.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.1N 132.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 16.1N 134.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 127.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-18 21:47

WTPN31 PHNC 182200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 026
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 127.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 127.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.6N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.8N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.2N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.7N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.0N 131.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.0N 134.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.0N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182200Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 127.4W.
18SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1148 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-18 20:52

WTPZ43 KNHC 182050 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2019

KIKO HAS APPARENTLY CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC WERE ALL 55 KT, SO
THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO THAT VALUE. AT LEAST SLOW ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIND SHEAR THAT
PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED THE CYCLONE SEEMS TO HAVE DECREASED, AND KIKO IS
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN OVER FAIRLY WARM WATERS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HWRF AND HMON MODELS WERE NOT
AVAILABLE FOR THIS FORECAST, BUT PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL
FOR POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS MUCH LOWER.
WITHOUT ANY NEW DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, IT SEEMS
WISE TO MAKE NO LARGE CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST THIS CYCLE,
BUT IT IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. IN GENERAL, THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AT ALL FORECAST HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/6 KT, BUT THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KIKO IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SNAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS, WEAKENS, AND THEN BUILDS
AGAIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW THIS GENERAL SCENARIO AND VARY
MAINLY IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST, WHICH IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 15.8N 127.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

>

2019-09-18 20:52

WTPZ43 KNHC 182050
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Kiko has apparently continued to strengthen. Subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were all 55 kt, so
the intensity is raised to that value. At least slow additional
strengthening is possible during the next few days. Wind shear that
previously affected the cyclone seems to have decreased, and Kiko is
far enough south that it should remain over fairly warm waters for
the next couple of days. The HWRF and HMON models were not
available for this forecast, but previous runs showed the potential
for possibly significant strengthening during the next couple of
days. On the other hand, the statistical guidance is much lower.
Without any new dynamical intensity guidance available, it seems
wise to make no large changes to the intensity forecast this cycle,
but it is slightly higher in the short term to account for the
higher initial intensity. In general, the NHC forecast is a little
above the intensity guidance at all forecast hours.

The initial motion is 250/6 kt, but the tropical storm is still
forecast to turn westward within the next few hours. Kiko is still
expected to snake its way westward during the next 5 days as a
mid-level ridge to the north builds, weakens, and then builds
again. The global models all show this general scenario and vary
mainly in the forward speed of the cyclone. Very little change was
made to the NHC forecast, which is near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 15.8N 127.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 15.8N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 16.2N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 16.7N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 16.0N 134.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-18 20:51

WTPZ33 KNHC 182048
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2019

...KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 127.3W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST. THE
TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11
KM/H). A WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. KIKO IS
THEN FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND KIKO
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-18 20:50

WTPZ23 KNHC 182048 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.3W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.3W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.8N 129.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.2N 129.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.7N 130.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-18 20:50

WTPZ23 KNHC 182048
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.3W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.3W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.8N 129.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.2N 129.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.7N 130.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 134.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 127.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-18 15:21

WTPN31 PHNC 181600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 026
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 16.1N 126.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 126.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.9N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.8N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.1N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.6N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.0N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.0N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.5N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181600Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 126.8W.
18SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1117 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND
191600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-18 14:34

WTPZ43 KNHC 181432
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2019

KIKO APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THIS MORNING WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER, ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT DISTORTED.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 50 KT ON THIS
ADVISORY, SINCE THE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING
A LITTLE HOT RECENTLY.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST, OR 245/05 KT. A TRACK
RESEMBLING ON ROLLER COASTER (WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR THE UPS
AND DOWNS TRYING TO FORECAST KIKO THIS PAST WEEK) IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STRENGTH OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS UNUSUAL TRACK, SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR AND MARGINALLY WARM-WATER
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, SOME DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SHEAR COULD LEVEL OFF THE
INTENSITY. THE LATEST FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE, ADJUSTED FOR THE HIGHER INITIAL WIND SPEED, BUT THIS
IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT LONG RANGE DUE TO SOME LARGE
CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 16.0N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.9N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.8N 128.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 16.1N 129.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 16.6N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 17.0N 131.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-18 14:34

WTPZ33 KNHC 181431
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2019

...KIKO MOVING OVER WARMER WATER AND STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 126.7W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.7 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A WESTWARD
TRACK IS LIKELY LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND A WESTWARD MOTION ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KIKO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-18 14:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 181431 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 126.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 126.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 126.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.9N 127.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.8N 128.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.1N 129.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.6N 129.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 131.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-18 14:33

WTPZ23 KNHC 181431
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 126.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 126.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 126.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.9N 127.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.8N 128.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.1N 129.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.6N 129.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 131.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 126.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-18 10:15

WTPN31 PHNC 181000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 024
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 125.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 125.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.2N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.1N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.3N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.6N 129.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.2N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.7N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.0N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181000Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 126.0W.
18SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1070 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-18 08:49

WTPZ43 KNHC 180847 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2019

KIKO IS TRYING TO RECOVER FROM ALL OF THE SHEAR THAT AFFECTED IT
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. AN EARLIER MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN LOOKING A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED NEAR THE STORM'S CENTER. WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS THE START
OF A TREND IS TOO EARLY TO TELL, AND A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS NEAR 45 KT.

KIKO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST, OR 240/04 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. KIKO WILL BE STEERED IN A MEAN
WESTERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. SOME NORTHWARD OR SOUTHWARD DEVIATIONS
IN THE FORWARD MOTION ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL TRACK
CONSENSUS AIDS.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WILL SOON
WILL BE MOVING OVER HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. IN A FEW DAYS, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS NEAR
THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 16.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

>

2019-09-18 08:49

WTPZ43 KNHC 180847
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Kiko is trying to recover from all of the shear that affected it
for the past few days. An earlier microwave pass showed that most of
the convection was confined to the southern semicircle. Over the
past few hours, deep convection has been looking a little more
organized near the storm's center. Whether or not this is the start
of a trend is too early to tell, and a blend of the subjective and
objective intensity estimates indicate that the initial intensity
remains near 45 kt.

Kiko continues to move southwest, or 240/04 kt. There is no change
to the forecast track philosophy. Kiko will be steered in a mean
westerly trajectory for the next several days by mid-level ridging
to the north of the cyclone. Some northward or southward deviations
in the forward motion are expected from time to time due to
fluctuations in the strength of the ridge. The official forecast is
very close to the previous one, and near the multi-model track
consensus aids.

Kiko is expected to remain in a low shear environment and will soon
will be moving over higher oceanic heat content. This should result
in gradual strengthening. In a few days, the cyclone will begin to
move into a drier and more stable environment which should limit
any further intensification during the forecast period. The latest
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near
the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 16.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 17.2N 130.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 16.7N 132.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-18 08:48

WTPZ33 KNHC 180845
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2019

...KIKO STOPS WEAKENING AS IT HEADS SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 125.9W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.9 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT, AND KIKO COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-18 08:48

WTPZ23 KNHC 180845 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.9W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.9W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 125.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 128.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.2N 130.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.7N 132.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W

>

2019-09-18 08:47

WTPZ23 KNHC 180845
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.9W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.9W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 125.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 128.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.2N 130.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.7N 132.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 125.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-18 03:24

WTPN31 PHNC 180400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 023
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 125.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 125.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.4N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.2N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.2N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.5N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.0N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.9N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.9N 134.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 125.5W.
18SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND
190400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-18 02:53

WTPZ43 KNHC 180250 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2019

KIKO'S CONVECTION HAS LACKED SOME SHAPE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS,
WITH TWO MAIN BURSTS OBSERVED NEAR THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN 3.5 (55 KT), ADT AND SATCON
ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS THE AFTERNOON ASCAT DATA, INDICATE THAT
KIKO'S WINDS ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE OF ALL THE AVAILABLE ESTIMATES,
AND EVEN THAT COULD BE GENEROUS.

KIKO'S FUTURE TRACK LOOKS LIKE A ROLLER COASTER, WITH SUCCESSIVE
DIPS AND RISES IN LATITUDE RESULTING FROM CYCLICAL STRENGTHENING AND
WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE
MODELS DEPICT THIS GENERAL PATTERN, THERE IS SOME MODEL SPEED
DIVERGENCE AFTER 36 HOURS. IN THE END, HOWEVER, THE UPDATED NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IT'S CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE HCCA MODEL.

KIKO HAS RE-ENTERED A ZONE OF LOW SHEAR, AND IT WILL SOON BE
LEAVING AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. IT MAY
TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE CYCLONE TO FEED OFF THESE BETTER
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, BUT RE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED TO
BEGIN BY 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE, ALTHOUGH IT'S NOT NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES IF THE HIGHER-INTENSITY MODELS,
INCLUDING HCCA, DON'T COME BACK DOWN.

>

2019-09-18 02:52

WTPZ43 KNHC 180250
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Kiko's convection has lacked some shape during the past few hours,
with two main bursts observed near the center. Although subjective
Dvorak Current Intensity numbers remain 3.5 (55 kt), ADT and SATCON
estimates, as well as the afternoon ASCAT data, indicate that
Kiko's winds are much weaker than that. The initial intensity is
lowered to 45 kt as a compromise of all the available estimates,
and even that could be generous.

Kiko's future track looks like a roller coaster, with successive
dips and rises in latitude resulting from cyclical strengthening and
weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north. Although all of the
models depict this general pattern, there is some model speed
divergence after 36 hours. In the end, however, the updated NHC
track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and it's close
to the multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model.

Kiko has re-entered a zone of low shear, and it will soon be
leaving an area of relatively low oceanic heat content. It may
take a little time for the cyclone to feed off these better
environmental conditions, but re-strengthening is anticipated to
begin by 36 hours and continue for much of the forecast period.
The new intensity forecast is just a little higher than the
previous one, although it's not near the high end of the guidance
envelope. Additional increases in the forecast peak intensity are
possible in subsequent advisories if the higher-intensity models,
including HCCA, don't come back down.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 16.2N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 16.5N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 17.0N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-18 02:52

WTPZ33 KNHC 180249
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...KIKO A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 125.5W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), BUT IT IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY, AND KIKO
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-18 02:52

WTPZ23 KNHC 180249 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 125.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 125.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.2N 127.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 128.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 129.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

>

2019-09-18 02:51

WTPZ23 KNHC 180249
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 125.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 125.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.2N 127.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 128.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 129.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2019-09-17 21:48

WTPN31 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 022
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 124.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 124.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.4N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.2N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.1N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.5N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.0N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.0N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.0N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172200Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 125.2W.
17SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1038 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND
182200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-17 20:41

WTPZ23 KNHC 172037 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.1W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.1W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.4N 125.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-17 20:40

WTPZ43 KNHC 172038 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2019

CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRUGGLING NEAR THE CENTER OF KIKO TODAY, WITH
ONLY SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE'S A PRETTY BIG DISPARITY IN THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT ASCAT DATA
SUPPORTS 40-45 KT, WHILE OTHER ESTIMATES ARE STILL NEAR HURRICANE-
FORCE. WEIGHING THE SCATTEROMETER DATA HEAVIER THAN MOST GIVES AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

KIKO IS ON TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, STEERED BY A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME, WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ANTICIPATED,
AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD DIPS, ONE AT THE CURRENT TIME AND ONE AFTER DAY 5. THE
NEW NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT
THIS TIME IT IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, HOPEFULLY
INDICATING THAT THE SOUTHWARD SHIFTS ARE DONE FOR THE TIME BEING.

WHILE THE CURRENT SHEAR NEAR KIKO SHOULD RELAX LATER TODAY, IT
COULD TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE STORM CAN RECOVER FROM THE
EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR. KIKO WILL PROBABLY TO RE-STRENGTHEN IN A DAY
OR SO, IN PART DUE TO THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS IN A
LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARD, THERE IS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
THE LONG-RANGE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECAST, LEADING TO WILDLY
DIVERGENT INTENSITY FORECASTS BY DAY 5 IN THE MODELS, RANGING FROM A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. FOR NOW SINCE THE

>

2019-09-17 20:40

WTPZ43 KNHC 172038
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Convection has been struggling near the center of Kiko today, with
only some re-development near the core of the cyclone during the
past couple of hours. There's a pretty big disparity in the
initial wind speed estimates this afternoon. Recent ASCAT data
supports 40-45 kt, while other estimates are still near hurricane-
force. Weighing the scatterometer data heavier than most gives an
initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory.

Kiko is on track toward the west-southwest, steered by a ridge
extending from the central Pacific. The forecast continues to
shift to the south with time, with a stronger ridge anticipated,
and the model guidance is more consistent in showing two west-
southwestward dips, one at the current time and one after day 5. The
new NHC track prediction is somewhat south of the previous one, but
this time it is fairly close to the model consensus, hopefully
indicating that the southward shifts are done for the time being.

While the current shear near Kiko should relax later today, it
could take some time before the storm can recover from the
effects of the shear. Kiko will probably to re-strengthen in a day
or so, in part due to the cyclone moving over warmer waters in a
low-shear environment. Afterward, there is very little agreement on
the long-range upper-level wind forecast, leading to wildly
divergent intensity forecasts by day 5 in the models, ranging from a
tropical depression to a category 4 hurricane. For now since the
track forecast brings Kiko again over warmer waters, a slight
increase in wind speed is shown, and this could be conservative at
the end of the 5-day period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.8N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 16.4N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 128.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 16.0N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-17 20:39

WTPZ33 KNHC 172037
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...SATELLITE WINDS REVEAL A WEAKER KIKO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 125.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.1 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY, AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT AFTER THAT TIME KIKO COULD GRADUALLY
RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-17 20:39

WTPZ23 KNHC 172037
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.1W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.1W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.4N 125.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 133.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 125.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-17 15:59

WTNT82 EGRR 171558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 17.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 108.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 0 11.8N 108.3W 1008 26
0000UTC 18.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 0 12.9N 44.1W 1009 23
0000UTC 18.09.2019 12 14.1N 46.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 18.09.2019 24 14.9N 48.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 36 15.8N 50.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2019 48 16.7N 53.7W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2019 60 17.8N 56.5W 1003 42
1200UTC 20.09.2019 72 18.8N 59.5W 1005 41
0000UTC 21.09.2019 84 20.6N 62.3W 1006 40
1200UTC 21.09.2019 96 22.7N 64.4W 1007 36
0000UTC 22.09.2019 108 25.0N 65.0W 1005 36
1200UTC 22.09.2019 120 27.4N 64.2W 996 49
0000UTC 23.09.2019 132 30.1N 62.0W 974 79
1200UTC 23.09.2019 144 34.0N 60.1W 958 85

TROPICAL STORM 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 98.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 0 13.0N 98.6W 1009 27
0000UTC 18.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 96.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 0 27.8N 96.0W 1010 23
0000UTC 18.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 163.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 0 15.3N 163.6W 1006 26
0000UTC 18.09.2019 12 16.9N 164.3W 1005 24
1200UTC 18.09.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 74.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 0 30.6N 74.0W 965 74
0000UTC 18.09.2019 12 31.1N 71.9W 952 79
1200UTC 18.09.2019 24 32.0N 69.2W 940 88
0000UTC 19.09.2019 36 33.4N 65.6W 926 91
1200UTC 19.09.2019 48 36.4N 61.1W 944 78
0000UTC 20.09.2019 60 38.9N 58.6W 970 69
1200UTC 20.09.2019 72 41.4N 55.1W 986 58
0000UTC 21.09.2019 84 42.8N 50.1W 997 43
1200UTC 21.09.2019 96 42.3N 42.5W 1004 36
0000UTC 22.09.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 125.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 0 16.8N 125.2W 985 57
0000UTC 18.09.2019 12 16.2N 126.3W 985 53
1200UTC 18.09.2019 24 15.5N 127.5W 983 56
0000UTC 19.09.2019 36 15.4N 128.5W 983 59
1200UTC 19.09.2019 48 15.8N 129.6W 983 57
0000UTC 20.09.2019 60 16.5N 130.9W 985 55
1200UTC 20.09.2019 72 16.9N 131.5W 988 49
0000UTC 21.09.2019 84 17.3N 131.5W 992 47
1200UTC 21.09.2019 96 17.6N 131.7W 996 42
0000UTC 22.09.2019 108 17.2N 132.5W 999 37
1200UTC 22.09.2019 120 16.4N 133.5W 999 37
0000UTC 23.09.2019 132 15.3N 134.8W 996 41
1200UTC 23.09.2019 144 14.5N 136.2W 993 42

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.7N 112.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 36 15.7N 112.7W 1005 28
1200UTC 19.09.2019 48 16.5N 114.6W 1004 25
0000UTC 20.09.2019 60 17.3N 115.8W 1000 37
1200UTC 20.09.2019 72 17.7N 116.5W 996 43
0000UTC 21.09.2019 84 18.0N 116.5W 998 37
1200UTC 21.09.2019 96 18.2N 116.7W 1002 30
0000UTC 22.09.2019 108 17.5N 117.2W 1002 30
1200UTC 22.09.2019 120 17.2N 117.6W 1003 27
0000UTC 23.09.2019 132 17.3N 117.8W 1002 26
1200UTC 23.09.2019 144 18.1N 117.9W 1004 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.6N 156.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2019 96 14.9N 157.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 22.09.2019 108 15.5N 157.0W 1005 29
1200UTC 22.09.2019 120 17.0N 156.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 23.09.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.5N 62.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2019 144 13.9N 63.1W 1006 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171557

>

2019-09-17 15:59

WTNT80 EGRR 171557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 108.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 11.8N 108.3W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 12.9N 44.1W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.1N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 14.9N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.8N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.7N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.8N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.8N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 20.6N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 22.7N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 25.0N 65.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 27.4N 64.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 30.1N 62.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 34.0N 60.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL STORM 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 98.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 13.0N 98.6W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 96.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 27.8N 96.0W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 163.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 15.3N 163.6W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.9N 164.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 74.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 30.6N 74.0W STRONG
00UTC 18.09.2019 31.1N 71.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 32.0N 69.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 33.4N 65.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 36.4N 61.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.09.2019 38.9N 58.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 41.4N 55.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 42.8N 50.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 42.3N 42.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 125.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 16.8N 125.2W MODERATE
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.2N 126.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.5N 127.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.4N 128.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 15.8N 129.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 16.5N 130.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 16.9N 131.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 17.3N 131.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 17.6N 131.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.2N 132.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.4N 133.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 15.3N 134.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 14.5N 136.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.7N 112.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.7N 112.7W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.5N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.3N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.7N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.2N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.5N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 17.2N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 17.3N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 18.1N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.6N 156.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.09.2019 14.9N 157.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 15.5N 157.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 17.0N 156.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.5N 62.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2019 13.9N 63.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171557

>

2019-09-17 15:55

WTPN31 PHNC 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 021
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 17.1N 124.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 124.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.7N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.4N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.3N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.5N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.2N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.3N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.5N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171600Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 125.1W.
17SEP19. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1025 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-17 14:40

WTPZ43 KNHC 171437 RRA
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 17 2019

KIKO CONTINUES TO HAVE AN IRREGULAR SHAPE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. STILL, OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A CENTRAL CORE, AND THE LATEST
SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT KIKO REMAINING A 65-KT CYCLONE ON THIS
ADVISORY.

KIKO HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING DUE TO
INCREASED RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS RATHER CHANGEABLE NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH A
SINUOUS TRACK ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AT MOST TIMES, SINCE THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, THE NHC TRACK
IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING KIKO IS FORECAST TO RELENT LATER
TODAY, WHICH SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE WEAKENING TREND. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY, THE CYCLONE COULD BEGIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN DUE TO THE
RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR WHILE THE STORM IS OVER WARMER WATERS. AT
LONG RANGE, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS, CAUSING
WEAKENING AROUND THAT TIME, ALTHOUGH THERE'S LITTLE AGREEMENT ON
WHETHER THAT SHEAR WILL LAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHER AT MOST
FORECAST TIMES THAN THE LAST CYCLE, WHICH MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THUS, THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD, BUT IS BELOW THE

>

2019-09-17 14:39

WTPZ43 KNHC 171437
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Kiko continues to have an irregular shape on satellite imagery, with
most of the convection near the center and in the southeastern
quadrant of the cyclone. Still, overnight microwave data indicate
that the hurricane still has a central core, and the latest
satellite estimates support Kiko remaining a 65-kt cyclone on this
advisory.

Kiko has turned toward the west-southwest this morning due to
increased ridging extending from the central Pacific. The synoptic
pattern is rather changeable near the tropical cyclone, with a
sinuous track anticipated during the next several days due to
fluctuations in strength of the subtropical ridge. The forecast has
been shifted southward at most times, since the GFS-based guidance
has trended toward the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. However, the NHC track
is on the northern side of the guidance envelope.

The shear that has been affecting Kiko is forecast to relent later
today, which should put an end to the weakening trend. By late
Wednesday, the cyclone could begin to re-strengthen due to the
relaxation of the shear while the storm is over warmer waters. At
long range, shear is forecast to increase in about 4 days, causing
weakening around that time, although there's little agreement on
whether that shear will last. The model guidance is higher at most
forecast times than the last cycle, which makes some sense given the
southerly adjustment to the track forecast. Thus, the NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted slightly upward, but is below the
corrected consensus guidance at most times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 17.0N 125.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 16.3N 127.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.5N 128.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 17.3N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 16.5N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-17 14:38

WTPZ33 KNHC 171436
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...KIKO SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH AND LATITUDE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 125.0W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY, AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
(95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-17 14:38

WTPZ23 KNHC 171436 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 124.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.3N 127.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-17 14:37

WTPZ23 KNHC 171436
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 124.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.3N 127.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 131.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 125.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

2019-09-17 10:06

WTPN31 PHNC 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 17.3N 124.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 124.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.9N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.7N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.6N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.8N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.5N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.7N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.0N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171000Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 124.8W.
17SEP19. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1007 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z
AND 181000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-17 09:44

WTPZ23 KNHC 170940 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS.

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-17 09:43

WTPZ23 KNHC 170940 CCA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS.

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 124.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-17 08:55

WTPZ43 KNHC 170852 RRA
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 17 2019

THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING KIKO HAS STILL NOT LET UP.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IRREGULAR SHAPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
WITH THE ANVILS BEING FORCED DOWNSHEAR. A BLEND OF THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 70 KT, AND THIS VALUE MAY BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS BASED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS.

KIKO IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE COMMENCING VERY SOON AS
THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST.
THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, BEFORE THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND KIKO BECOMES STEERED TO THE WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST BY A RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, A NEW RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF KIKO, CAUSING
ANOTHER TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. ALL THE WHILE, THE STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK, RESULTING IN A SLOW FORWARD MOTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 72 HOURS DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE
CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN KIKO TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. BY TONIGHT, THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH, WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RE-STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, MODERATELY STABLE AIR
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM, SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST,
AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP THE STRENGTHENING
AT A MINIMUM BEFORE THE SHEAR RETURNS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS

>

2019-09-17 08:54

WTPZ43 KNHC 170852
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

The northeasterly shear impacting Kiko has still not let up.
Satellite imagery shows an irregular shaped central dense overcast
with the anvils being forced downshear. A blend of the latest
subjective and objective intensity estimates suggest the initial
intensity has decreased to 70 kt, and this value may be a little
generous based on a recent scatterometer pass.

Kiko is moving slowly westward. All of the track guidance indicate
that a turn to the west-southwest should be commencing very soon as
the cyclone becomes steered by a mid-level ridge to its northwest.
This steering pattern should remain in place for the next couple of
days, before the ridge weakens and Kiko becomes steered to the west
to west-northwest by a ridge to its northeast. Late in the forecast
period, a new ridge should develop to the northwest of Kiko, causing
another turn to the west-southwest. All the while, the steering
currents will be fairly weak, resulting in a slow forward motion
for the next several days. The official NHC forecast was adjusted
only slightly to the south through 72 hours due to a shift in the
consensus aids.

The shear is expected to weaken Kiko to a tropical storm later
today. By tonight, this shear is expected to diminish, which could
allow for some re-strengthening. However, moderately stable air
surrounding the system, subsidence from the ridge to the northwest,
and marginal sea surface temperatures should keep the strengthening
at a minimum before the shear returns in a couple of days. This
re-strengthening is forecast by most of the guidance, and although
the NHC forecast makes Kiko a hurricane again, the forecast
intensity is a little lower than some of the most reliable consensus
aids during that time period. Once the shear returns, Kiko is
expected to begin weakening once again and should become a tropical
storm by 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 17.2N 124.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-17 08:54

WTPZ33 KNHC 170851
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...KIKO CRAWLING WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 124.7W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.7 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
KIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. SOME
SLIGHT RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
(95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-17 08:54

WTPZ23 KNHC 170850 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-17 08:52

WTPZ23 KNHC 170850
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 124.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2019-09-17 03:58

WTNT82 EGRR 170357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 17.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 95.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 0 27.4N 95.6W 1010 21
1200UTC 17.09.2019 12 27.6N 96.0W 1010 20
0000UTC 18.09.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 107.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 0 10.6N 107.4W 1008 26
1200UTC 17.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 42.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 0 12.0N 42.4W 1009 25
1200UTC 17.09.2019 12 12.7N 44.2W 1008 25
0000UTC 18.09.2019 24 14.0N 45.4W 1006 30
1200UTC 18.09.2019 36 14.9N 47.6W 1003 34
0000UTC 19.09.2019 48 15.2N 49.9W 1000 38
1200UTC 19.09.2019 60 15.7N 52.3W 996 49
0000UTC 20.09.2019 72 16.5N 54.4W 993 60
1200UTC 20.09.2019 84 17.3N 57.0W 993 60
0000UTC 21.09.2019 96 18.0N 60.0W 992 64
1200UTC 21.09.2019 108 18.2N 62.9W 992 60
0000UTC 22.09.2019 120 18.5N 65.4W 988 63
1200UTC 22.09.2019 132 18.7N 67.6W 987 64
0000UTC 23.09.2019 144 19.2N 68.7W 983 60

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 97.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 0 11.9N 97.1W 1008 24
1200UTC 17.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 75.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 0 30.1N 75.6W 973 58
1200UTC 17.09.2019 12 30.6N 73.9W 970 68
0000UTC 18.09.2019 24 31.3N 71.6W 956 77
1200UTC 18.09.2019 36 32.2N 68.6W 946 85
0000UTC 19.09.2019 48 33.7N 64.1W 936 93
1200UTC 19.09.2019 60 36.9N 59.1W 955 82
0000UTC 20.09.2019 72 38.9N 56.1W 983 56
1200UTC 20.09.2019 84 40.3N 53.0W 1000 42
0000UTC 21.09.2019 96 41.4N 49.4W 1006 36
1200UTC 21.09.2019 108 42.0N 44.0W 1007 30
0000UTC 22.09.2019 120 43.4N 38.9W 1003 27
1200UTC 22.09.2019 132 45.8N 31.6W 994 35
0000UTC 23.09.2019 144 49.0N 22.9W 988 39

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 124.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 0 17.0N 124.4W 975 60
1200UTC 17.09.2019 12 16.5N 125.2W 975 61
0000UTC 18.09.2019 24 15.8N 126.2W 978 58
1200UTC 18.09.2019 36 15.3N 127.3W 977 62
0000UTC 19.09.2019 48 15.5N 128.5W 974 63
1200UTC 19.09.2019 60 16.0N 129.8W 976 59
0000UTC 20.09.2019 72 17.1N 130.6W 982 59
1200UTC 20.09.2019 84 18.2N 131.0W 990 52
0000UTC 21.09.2019 96 18.8N 131.7W 996 44
1200UTC 21.09.2019 108 18.7N 132.4W 1003 30
0000UTC 22.09.2019 120 18.4N 133.4W 1005 29
1200UTC 22.09.2019 132 17.7N 134.6W 1007 28
0000UTC 23.09.2019 144 16.6N 135.7W 1006 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 14.3N 134.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 12 14.5N 134.6W 1008 27
0000UTC 18.09.2019 24 14.2N 134.3W 1006 24
1200UTC 18.09.2019 36 13.4N 134.8W 1006 25
0000UTC 19.09.2019 48 13.1N 135.0W 1006 25
1200UTC 19.09.2019 60 13.0N 134.8W 1006 52
0000UTC 20.09.2019 72 12.8N 133.8W 1006 49
1200UTC 20.09.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 15.4N 164.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 12 15.4N 164.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 18.09.2019 24 16.9N 164.8W 1005 24
1200UTC 18.09.2019 36 18.9N 165.2W 1004 32
0000UTC 19.09.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.1N 113.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 48 16.1N 113.2W 1005 27
1200UTC 19.09.2019 60 16.7N 115.1W 1002 29
0000UTC 20.09.2019 72 17.5N 116.3W 997 43
1200UTC 20.09.2019 84 17.9N 116.7W 996 40
0000UTC 21.09.2019 96 18.0N 116.5W 998 35
1200UTC 21.09.2019 108 18.0N 116.5W 1003 29
0000UTC 22.09.2019 120 17.1N 116.9W 1003 30
1200UTC 22.09.2019 132 16.4N 117.4W 1003 26
0000UTC 23.09.2019 144 16.3N 117.5W 1003 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.6N 152.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2019 60 14.3N 153.3W 1005 26
0000UTC 20.09.2019 72 14.2N 154.6W 1005 24
1200UTC 20.09.2019 84 14.3N 156.0W 1005 25
0000UTC 21.09.2019 96 14.4N 157.8W 1004 25
1200UTC 21.09.2019 108 14.4N 158.4W 1004 26
0000UTC 22.09.2019 120 15.3N 157.4W 1003 33
1200UTC 22.09.2019 132 16.7N 157.0W 1007 29
0000UTC 23.09.2019 144 18.4N 157.5W 1009 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170356

>

2019-09-17 03:57

WTNT80 EGRR 170356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 95.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 27.4N 95.6W WEAK
12UTC 17.09.2019 27.6N 96.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 107.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 10.6N 107.4W WEAK
12UTC 17.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 42.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 12.0N 42.4W WEAK
12UTC 17.09.2019 12.7N 44.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.0N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 14.9N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.2N 49.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 15.7N 52.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 16.5N 54.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.3N 57.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 60.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.2N 62.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 18.5N 65.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.09.2019 18.7N 67.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 19.2N 68.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 97.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 11.9N 97.1W WEAK
12UTC 17.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 75.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 30.1N 75.6W STRONG
12UTC 17.09.2019 30.6N 73.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 31.3N 71.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 32.2N 68.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 33.7N 64.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 36.9N 59.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.09.2019 38.9N 56.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 40.3N 53.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 41.4N 49.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 42.0N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 43.4N 38.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.09.2019 45.8N 31.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 49.0N 22.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 124.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 17.0N 124.4W STRONG
12UTC 17.09.2019 16.5N 125.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 15.8N 126.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.3N 127.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.5N 128.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.0N 129.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.1N 130.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.2N 131.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.8N 131.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.7N 132.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 18.4N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 17.7N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 16.6N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 14.3N 134.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 14.5N 134.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.2N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.4N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 13.1N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 13.0N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 12.8N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 15.4N 164.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 15.4N 164.3W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.9N 164.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 18.9N 165.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.1N 113.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.1N 113.2W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.7N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.5N 116.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.9N 116.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 116.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.1N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.4N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 16.3N 117.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.6N 152.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2019 14.3N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 14.2N 154.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 14.3N 156.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 14.4N 157.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 14.4N 158.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 15.3N 157.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.7N 157.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 18.4N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170356

>

2019-09-17 03:07

WTPN31 PHNC 170400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 124.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 124.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.0N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.7N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.5N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.6N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.2N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.7N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.2N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170400Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 124.4W.
17SEP19. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1001 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-17 02:37

WTPZ43 KNHC 170234 RRA
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT MON SEP 16 2019

KIKO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE STRENGTH. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
A LESS ORGANIZED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH NO EVIDENCE OF
AN EYE. THERE IS A SHARP EDGE IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, SUGGESTIVE OF CONTINUED NORTHERLY WIND
SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 75 KT, WHICH IS NEAR
THE HIGH END OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. KIKO
REMAINS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH ITS TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
AND RAIN BANDS EXTENDING ONLY ABOUT 50 N MI FROM THE CENTER.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
THE CONTINUED EFFECTS OF NORTHERLY SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND MARGINALLY
WARM SSTS, AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS KIKO FALLING BELOW HURRICANE
INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. THE MODELS SHOW KIKO RE-STRENGTHENING
A LITTLE OR MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS AND INTO A REGION OF LOWER
SHEAR. HOWEVER, WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

KIKO CONTINUES TO ONLY CRAWL WESTWARD IN RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS. A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF KIKO OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN ALLOWING KIKO TO TURN WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER

>

2019-09-17 02:37

WTPZ33 KNHC 170233
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT MON SEP 16 2019

...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 124.4W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
TURN BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THAT TIME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
(95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB (29.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-17 02:36

WTPZ43 KNHC 170234
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Kiko continues to gradually lose strength. Satellite images show
a less organized central dense overcast feature with no evidence of
an eye. There is a sharp edge in the convective pattern on the
north side of the system, suggestive of continued northerly wind
shear. The initial wind speed is lowered to 75 kt, which is near
the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Kiko
remains a very compact system with its tropical-storm-force winds
and rain bands extending only about 50 n mi from the center.

Additional weakening seems likely during the next 24 hours due to
the continued effects of northerly shear, dry air, and marginally
warm SSTs, and the NHC forecast shows Kiko falling below hurricane
intensity during that time. The models show Kiko re-strengthening
a little or maintaining its intensity on Wednesday and Thursday as
it moves over slightly warmer waters and into a region of lower
shear. However, weakening should resume by the end of the week
when the cyclone moves into a less favorable atmospheric
environment. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the
guidance and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids.

Kiko continues to only crawl westward in relatively weak steering
currents. A ridge building to the northwest of Kiko over the
central Pacific is forecast to steer the cyclone west-southwestward
on Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is expected to
weaken allowing Kiko to turn westward or west-northwestward later
this week, followed by another turn to the southwest by the end of
the forecast period. Regardless of the details of the track
forecast, the bottom line is that Kiko is expected to continue its
slow trek for several more days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 17.2N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 17.2N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-17 02:36

WTPZ23 KNHC 170233 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-17 02:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 170233
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.2N 132.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 124.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2019-09-16 21:19

WTPN31 PHNC 162200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 123.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 123.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.1N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.8N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.6N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.6N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.0N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.3N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.3N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162200Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 124.2W.
16SEP19. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 995 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-16 20:39

WTPZ43 KNHC 162035 RRA
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT MON SEP 16 2019

THERE HASN'T BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE IN KIKO DURING THE DAY, WITH THE
CYCLONE KEEPING A SMALL CENTRAL CORE AND NO HINTS OF AN EYE
FEATURE. WHILE THERE IS PLENTY OF OUTFLOW, THE SHARP EDGE IN THE
CIRRUS CANOPY ON THE NORTH SIDE IS INDICATIVE OF THE MAINTENANCE OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE LOWER THAN THIS
MORNING, AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 85 KT. WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHEAR CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED AFTER THAT TIME SINCE THE TRACK
KEEPS ADJUSTING SOUTHWARD OVER WARMER WATER WHILE THE SHEAR RELAXES.
THIS CHANGE RESULTS IN SOME MODELS SHOWING RE-INTENSIFICATION IN A
FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH THAT'S TEMPORARY SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RESUME AT LONG RANGE. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO, THE NEW
FORECAST SHOWS A SMALL BUMP UP IN INTENSITY FOR LATER THIS WEEK, AND
WE WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH KIKO MAKES IT BEFORE MAKING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS.

KIKO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 4 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY 72 HOURS,
WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
MAJORITY IN THE MODELS ARE SOUTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS TRACKS, STARTING

>

2019-09-16 20:38

WTPZ43 KNHC 162035
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

There hasn't been a lot of change in Kiko during the day, with the
cyclone keeping a small central core and no hints of an eye
feature. While there is plenty of outflow, the sharp edge in the
cirrus canopy on the north side is indicative of the maintenance of
northeasterly shear. Intensity estimates are lower than this
morning, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 85 kt. Weakening
is anticipated during the next day or so as the shear continues.
The forecast is more complicated after that time since the track
keeps adjusting southward over warmer water while the shear relaxes.
This change results in some models showing re-intensification in a
few days, although that's temporary since the shear is forecast to
resume at long range. To account for this scenario, the new
forecast shows a small bump up in intensity for later this week, and
we will just have to see how far south Kiko makes it before making a
more significant increase in winds.

Kiko continues to move westward at 4 kt to the south of a weak mid-
level ridge. The hurricane is forecast to turn to the west-
southwest by tomorrow due to a mid-level ridge building in from the
central Pacific. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours,
while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the
cyclone. This should result in a general westward to west-
northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The
majority in the models are south of their previous tracks, starting
the south-of-west motion as early as tonight. Thus the new forecast
is adjusted south of the last NHC prediction, and this is not a
particularly confident situation due to the unsteadiness of most of
the guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 17.3N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 17.1N 124.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 16.8N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 16.6N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 17.0N 129.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 17.3N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-16 20:38

WTPZ33 KNHC 162035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT MON SEP 16 2019

...KIKO SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 124.1W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, THEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
(95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB (28.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-16 20:38

WTPZ23 KNHC 162034 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.1N 124.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.8N 125.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.6N 126.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 129.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-16 20:36

WTPZ23 KNHC 162034
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.1N 124.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.8N 125.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.6N 126.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 129.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 132.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 124.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-16 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 161559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 16.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 41.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 0 11.4N 41.2W 1011 22
0000UTC 17.09.2019 12 12.1N 42.1W 1010 24
1200UTC 17.09.2019 24 12.9N 43.9W 1009 23
0000UTC 18.09.2019 36 14.0N 45.0W 1007 28
1200UTC 18.09.2019 48 14.8N 47.1W 1005 33
0000UTC 19.09.2019 60 15.3N 49.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 19.09.2019 72 15.7N 52.1W 998 45
0000UTC 20.09.2019 84 16.4N 54.4W 993 52
1200UTC 20.09.2019 96 16.9N 56.7W 986 64
0000UTC 21.09.2019 108 17.3N 59.3W 984 69
1200UTC 21.09.2019 120 17.4N 61.2W 982 68
0000UTC 22.09.2019 132 17.5N 62.9W 977 68
1200UTC 22.09.2019 144 17.9N 64.3W 973 74

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 106.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 0 11.0N 106.3W 1009 23
0000UTC 17.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 94.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 0 12.0N 94.6W 1009 29
0000UTC 17.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 76.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 0 29.7N 76.9W 976 63
0000UTC 17.09.2019 12 30.2N 75.4W 970 60
1200UTC 17.09.2019 24 30.9N 73.8W 961 73
0000UTC 18.09.2019 36 31.7N 71.5W 952 72
1200UTC 18.09.2019 48 32.4N 68.6W 943 85
0000UTC 19.09.2019 60 33.6N 64.5W 930 90
1200UTC 19.09.2019 72 36.2N 59.6W 940 82
0000UTC 20.09.2019 84 38.9N 55.7W 962 75
1200UTC 20.09.2019 96 41.1N 50.8W 987 63
0000UTC 21.09.2019 108 41.3N 44.5W 1001 39
1200UTC 21.09.2019 120 40.4N 37.8W 1008 31
0000UTC 22.09.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 123.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 0 17.1N 123.7W 974 61
0000UTC 17.09.2019 12 16.6N 124.5W 978 59
1200UTC 17.09.2019 24 16.1N 125.2W 977 60
0000UTC 18.09.2019 36 15.6N 126.1W 977 59
1200UTC 18.09.2019 48 15.3N 127.0W 979 56
0000UTC 19.09.2019 60 15.3N 128.2W 977 62
1200UTC 19.09.2019 72 15.6N 129.4W 979 53
0000UTC 20.09.2019 84 16.2N 130.1W 979 56
1200UTC 20.09.2019 96 17.2N 130.2W 984 51
0000UTC 21.09.2019 108 18.1N 130.3W 984 56
1200UTC 21.09.2019 120 18.4N 130.3W 986 53
0000UTC 22.09.2019 132 18.0N 130.5W 991 51
1200UTC 22.09.2019 144 17.2N 130.8W 989 47

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.8N 134.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 12 14.0N 134.8W 1007 21
1200UTC 17.09.2019 24 14.2N 135.4W 1007 29
0000UTC 18.09.2019 36 14.0N 135.7W 1006 24
1200UTC 18.09.2019 48 13.4N 136.2W 1006 24
0000UTC 19.09.2019 60 13.2N 136.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 19.09.2019 72 12.8N 137.6W 1006 22
0000UTC 20.09.2019 84 12.7N 137.9W 1005 23
1200UTC 20.09.2019 96 12.4N 138.3W 1005 26
0000UTC 21.09.2019 108 13.1N 138.3W 1005 26
1200UTC 21.09.2019 120 13.8N 139.0W 1005 25
0000UTC 22.09.2019 132 14.2N 140.2W 1004 30
1200UTC 22.09.2019 144 14.1N 141.5W 1002 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.9N 151.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 60 14.1N 152.1W 1005 24
1200UTC 19.09.2019 72 14.2N 153.4W 1005 24
0000UTC 20.09.2019 84 14.5N 154.9W 1005 24
1200UTC 20.09.2019 96 14.5N 156.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 21.09.2019 108 14.7N 157.5W 1005 28
1200UTC 21.09.2019 120 15.2N 158.5W 1005 26
0000UTC 22.09.2019 132 15.9N 157.7W 1004 28
1200UTC 22.09.2019 144 17.0N 157.7W 1007 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.9N 114.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 60 15.9N 114.1W 1004 27
1200UTC 19.09.2019 72 17.5N 116.1W 1001 34
0000UTC 20.09.2019 84 17.8N 117.1W 997 44
1200UTC 20.09.2019 96 18.1N 117.4W 997 35
0000UTC 21.09.2019 108 18.3N 117.4W 1000 30
1200UTC 21.09.2019 120 18.0N 117.4W 1004 26
0000UTC 22.09.2019 132 16.9N 117.6W 1005 26
1200UTC 22.09.2019 144 15.5N 117.5W 1004 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 27.8N 170.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2019 84 28.3N 171.8W 999 36
1200UTC 20.09.2019 96 29.8N 175.5W 1000 32
0000UTC 21.09.2019 108 29.6N 178.1W 998 32
1200UTC 21.09.2019 120 30.5N 179.2W 999 37
0000UTC 22.09.2019 132 31.1N 179.8W 1001 31
1200UTC 22.09.2019 144 30.2N 178.8E 1003 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161559

>

2019-09-16 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 161559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 41.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2019 11.4N 41.2W WEAK
00UTC 17.09.2019 12.1N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 12.9N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.0N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 14.8N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.3N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 15.7N 52.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 16.4N 54.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 16.9N 56.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 17.3N 59.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 17.4N 61.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.5N 62.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.09.2019 17.9N 64.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 106.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2019 11.0N 106.3W WEAK
00UTC 17.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 94.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2019 12.0N 94.6W WEAK
00UTC 17.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 76.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2019 29.7N 76.9W STRONG
00UTC 17.09.2019 30.2N 75.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 30.9N 73.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 31.7N 71.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 32.4N 68.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 33.6N 64.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 36.2N 59.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.09.2019 38.9N 55.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 41.1N 50.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 41.3N 44.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 40.4N 37.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 123.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2019 17.1N 123.7W STRONG
00UTC 17.09.2019 16.6N 124.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 16.1N 125.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 15.6N 126.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.3N 127.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.3N 128.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 15.6N 129.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 16.2N 130.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.2N 130.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.1N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.4N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 18.0N 130.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.09.2019 17.2N 130.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.8N 134.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 14.0N 134.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 14.2N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.0N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.4N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 13.2N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 12.8N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 12.7N 137.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 12.4N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 13.1N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 13.8N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 14.2N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 14.1N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.9N 151.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 14.1N 152.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 14.2N 153.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 14.5N 154.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 14.5N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 14.7N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 15.2N 158.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 15.9N 157.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 17.0N 157.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.9N 114.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.9N 114.1W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2019 17.5N 116.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.8N 117.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.1N 117.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.3N 117.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 16.9N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 15.5N 117.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 27.8N 170.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.09.2019 28.3N 171.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 29.8N 175.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 29.6N 178.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 30.5N 179.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 31.1N 179.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 30.2N 178.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161559

>

2019-09-16 15:16

WTPN31 PHNC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 123.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 123.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.3N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.2N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.9N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.7N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.9N 129.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.3N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.3N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161600Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 123.8W.
16SEP19. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 987 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-16 14:54

WTPZ43 KNHC 161451 RRA
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2019

MICROWAVE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
CORE OF KIKO IS BEING DISRUPTED. WHILE THERE IS A SEEMINGLY
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS UNDERCUTTING THE
TOP LAYER AND PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM HAVING A CLOSED EYEWALL.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE FALLING AND SUPPORT A PERHAPS-GENEROUS
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 90 KT.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHICH
SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER WEAKENING. AFTER THAT TIME, THE SHEAR COULD
LESSEN, ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT OVERALL IS HARDLY VERY CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING, AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD BEST SUPPORT LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY. BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AN
INCREASE IN SHEAR, SO A MORE NOTABLE WEAKENING COULD OCCUR. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, FOLLOWING
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE, BUT IS A BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. A
FAIR NUMBER OF MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW A WEAKER CYCLONE, BUT IN A
COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT, I'D RATHER BE CONSERVATIVE IN CHANGING THE
LONGER-RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST.

THERE'S NO SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGE TO REPORT WITH KIKO. THE
HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KT, TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. BY 36 HOURS, ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO STEER KIKO TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY 72 HOURS,
WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO

>

2019-09-16 14:53

WTPZ43 KNHC 161451
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Microwave data and satellite imagery continue to indicate that the
core of Kiko is being disrupted. While there is a seemingly
favorable outflow pattern, northeasterly shear is undercutting the
top layer and preventing the cyclone from having a closed eyewall.
Satellite estimates are falling and support a perhaps-generous
initial wind speed of 90 kt.

The shear is forecast to continue during the next day or so, which
should promote further weakening. After that time, the shear could
lessen, although the environment overall is hardly very conducive
for strengthening, and this scenario would best support little
change in intensity. By Friday-Saturday, model guidance does show an
increase in shear, so a more notable weakening could occur. The new
NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, following
the trend in the guidance, but is a bit above the model consensus. A
fair number of models actually show a weaker cyclone, but in a
complex environment, I'd rather be conservative in changing the
longer-range intensity forecast.

There's no significant track change to report with Kiko. The
hurricane is moving westward at 4 kt, to the south of a weak
mid-level ridge. By 36 hours, another ridge building to the
northwest of the hurricane will begin to steer Kiko to the
west-southwest. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours,
while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the
cyclone. This will likely result in a general westward to
west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast period.
The new forecast track is close to the previous one, on the faster
and southern side of the guidance, which has generally been the
right place to be with Kiko's track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 17.3N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 16.9N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 16.9N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 17.3N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-16 14:53

WTPZ33 KNHC 161450
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2019

...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 123.7W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

KIKO IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB (28.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-16 14:53

WTPZ23 KNHC 161450 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N 126.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.9N 129.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-16 14:51

WTPZ23 KNHC 161450
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N 126.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.9N 129.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 130.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-16 09:49

WTPN31 PHNC 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 122.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 122.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.2N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.2N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.8N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.0N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.2N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.3N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161000Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 123.2W.
16SEP19. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 982 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-16 08:42

WTPZ43 KNHC 160839 RRA
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2019

MICROWAVE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE INDICATING THAT
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS DISRUPTING THE CORE OF HURRICANE KIKO. THERE
IS NO EYE EVIDENT, AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME LESS
SYMMETRIC. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 100
KT.

KIKO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 KT, TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. BY 36 HOURS, A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO STEER IT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY 72 HOURS, WHILE RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD,
AND IS IN BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS AIDS TVCE AND HCCA.

THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING KIKO IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE SHEAR SHOULD SUBSIDE
BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD HAVE A COUNTERACTIVE
AFFECT ON THE LOWER SHEAR. AFTER 72 HOURS, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS INTENSITY AIDS, AND SHOWS
GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 36 HOURS, AND THEN LEVELS OFF THE
INTENSITY UNTIL 72 HOURS BEFORE RESUMING A WEAKENING TREND.

>

2019-09-16 08:42

WTPZ43 KNHC 160839
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Microwave data and satellite imagery are indicating that
northeasterly shear is disrupting the core of hurricane Kiko. There
is no eye evident, and the central dense overcast has become less
symmetric. A blend of the latest subjective intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB support lowering the initial advisory intensity to 100
kt.

Kiko is moving westward at 5 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level
ridge. By 36 hours, a ridge building to the northwest of the
hurricane will begin to steer it to the west-southwest. This ridge
is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while ridging builds to the
north and northeast of the cyclone. This will result in a general
west to west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast
period. The latest NHC forecast track was nudged slightly southward,
and is in between the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

The northeasterly shear currently impacting Kiko is forecast to
persist for the next 24 hours or so. The shear should subside
between 24-72 hours, but at the same time, increasing subsidence
from the building ridge to the northwest should have a counteractive
affect on the lower shear. After 72 hours, an upper level trough
approaching from the northwest is expected to cause strong
southwesterly shear to affect the cyclone. The official forecast is
in general agreement with the various intensity aids, and shows
gradual weakening through 36 hours, and then levels off the
intensity until 72 hours before resuming a weakening trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 17.2N 123.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.2N 123.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 17.2N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 16.8N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 17.0N 128.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 17.2N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 17.3N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-16 08:42

WTPZ33 KNHC 160839
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2019

...KIKO NOW WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 123.1W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.1 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
(95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB (28.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-16 08:40

WTPZ23 KNHC 160838 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 123.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.2N 124.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.8N 126.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.0N 128.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

>

2019-09-16 08:40

WTPZ23 KNHC 160838
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 123.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.2N 124.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.8N 126.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.0N 128.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 130.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.3N 131.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 123.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-16 04:00

WTNT82 EGRR 160359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 16.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 41.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 0 9.6N 41.2W 1011 20
1200UTC 16.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 77.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 0 29.2N 77.8W 989 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 12 29.7N 76.7W 974 63
0000UTC 17.09.2019 24 30.2N 75.2W 973 58
1200UTC 17.09.2019 36 30.8N 73.6W 966 67
0000UTC 18.09.2019 48 31.5N 71.3W 959 74
1200UTC 18.09.2019 60 32.1N 68.5W 945 82
0000UTC 19.09.2019 72 33.6N 64.3W 925 93
1200UTC 19.09.2019 84 36.4N 58.8W 935 83
0000UTC 20.09.2019 96 40.0N 53.4W 962 73
1200UTC 20.09.2019 108 41.8N 46.4W 993 50
0000UTC 21.09.2019 120 40.8N 39.2W 1008 35
1200UTC 21.09.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 122.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 0 17.1N 122.4W 986 59
1200UTC 16.09.2019 12 17.0N 123.7W 990 50
0000UTC 17.09.2019 24 17.0N 124.6W 993 46
1200UTC 17.09.2019 36 16.7N 125.4W 993 46
0000UTC 18.09.2019 48 16.4N 126.2W 994 45
1200UTC 18.09.2019 60 15.9N 127.5W 994 44
0000UTC 19.09.2019 72 16.1N 128.7W 997 40
1200UTC 19.09.2019 84 16.3N 129.9W 998 38
0000UTC 20.09.2019 96 16.7N 131.3W 993 43
1200UTC 20.09.2019 108 17.6N 132.0W 995 43
0000UTC 21.09.2019 120 18.5N 132.6W 997 44
1200UTC 21.09.2019 132 19.1N 133.8W 1003 36
0000UTC 22.09.2019 144 16.2N 134.1W 1006 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 11.8N 41.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 24 12.1N 42.5W 1010 24
1200UTC 17.09.2019 36 13.1N 44.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 18.09.2019 48 14.5N 45.9W 1006 32
1200UTC 18.09.2019 60 15.3N 48.1W 1004 33
0000UTC 19.09.2019 72 15.8N 51.0W 1002 34
1200UTC 19.09.2019 84 16.4N 53.6W 1000 46
0000UTC 20.09.2019 96 17.0N 56.4W 1001 41
1200UTC 20.09.2019 108 17.6N 59.1W 1003 38
0000UTC 21.09.2019 120 18.6N 61.6W 1003 38
1200UTC 21.09.2019 132 18.9N 63.7W 1003 34
0000UTC 22.09.2019 144 19.0N 64.7W 999 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.5N 134.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 24 13.6N 134.7W 1006 22
1200UTC 17.09.2019 36 14.0N 135.0W 1007 27
0000UTC 18.09.2019 48 13.9N 135.2W 1007 24
1200UTC 18.09.2019 60 13.5N 135.4W 1006 24
0000UTC 19.09.2019 72 13.3N 135.7W 1006 25
1200UTC 19.09.2019 84 13.4N 136.1W 1006 27
0000UTC 20.09.2019 96 13.3N 136.1W 1005 39
1200UTC 20.09.2019 108 13.8N 136.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 21.09.2019 120 14.5N 135.5W 1004 44
1200UTC 21.09.2019 132 15.3N 135.0W 1005 36
0000UTC 22.09.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.2N 150.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2019 48 12.3N 149.6W 1006 22
1200UTC 18.09.2019 60 13.6N 150.8W 1006 26
0000UTC 19.09.2019 72 14.2N 152.1W 1005 26
1200UTC 19.09.2019 84 14.1N 153.6W 1005 28
0000UTC 20.09.2019 96 14.1N 155.2W 1004 26
1200UTC 20.09.2019 108 14.3N 156.6W 1003 28
0000UTC 21.09.2019 120 14.6N 157.9W 1002 28
1200UTC 21.09.2019 132 15.2N 158.2W 1000 33
0000UTC 22.09.2019 144 17.6N 157.0W 991 55

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.7N 95.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 60 13.7N 95.3W 1007 23
0000UTC 19.09.2019 72 14.4N 95.0W 1005 31
1200UTC 19.09.2019 84 15.0N 95.4W 1004 35
0000UTC 20.09.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.7N 112.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 60 14.7N 112.1W 1005 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 72 16.1N 114.6W 1003 27
1200UTC 19.09.2019 84 17.2N 116.6W 1000 42
0000UTC 20.09.2019 96 17.6N 117.8W 997 37
1200UTC 20.09.2019 108 17.7N 118.1W 998 34
0000UTC 21.09.2019 120 17.5N 118.4W 1000 31
1200UTC 21.09.2019 132 17.3N 118.8W 1004 27
0000UTC 22.09.2019 144 16.3N 119.0W 1004 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 20.0N 174.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 60 20.0N 174.1W 1000 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 72 21.0N 171.8W 999 28
1200UTC 19.09.2019 84 22.8N 170.3W 999 34
0000UTC 20.09.2019 96 25.4N 171.6W 1001 35
1200UTC 20.09.2019 108 27.3N 174.8W 1004 31
0000UTC 21.09.2019 120 29.5N 178.8W 1005 29
1200UTC 21.09.2019 132 30.8N 177.7E 1007 24
0000UTC 22.09.2019 144 31.8N 175.8E 1010 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.1N 39.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 72 14.1N 39.9W 1009 25
1200UTC 19.09.2019 84 14.1N 42.7W 1009 30
0000UTC 20.09.2019 96 14.8N 45.9W 1010 30
1200UTC 20.09.2019 108 15.1N 49.9W 1010 33
0000UTC 21.09.2019 120 16.1N 53.3W 1010 34
1200UTC 21.09.2019 132 18.0N 56.5W 1010 37
0000UTC 22.09.2019 144 21.4N 59.5W 1009 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 14.2N 100.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2019 108 14.2N 100.6W 999 36
0000UTC 21.09.2019 120 14.9N 102.4W 989 44
1200UTC 21.09.2019 132 15.3N 105.0W 969 70
0000UTC 22.09.2019 144 15.9N 107.4W 961 71


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160359

>

2019-09-16 04:00

WTNT80 EGRR 160359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 41.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2019 9.6N 41.2W WEAK
12UTC 16.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 77.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2019 29.2N 77.8W MODERATE
12UTC 16.09.2019 29.7N 76.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 30.2N 75.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 30.8N 73.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 31.5N 71.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 32.1N 68.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 33.6N 64.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 36.4N 58.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.09.2019 40.0N 53.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 41.8N 46.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 40.8N 39.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 122.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2019 17.1N 122.4W MODERATE
12UTC 16.09.2019 17.0N 123.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 17.0N 124.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 16.7N 125.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.4N 126.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.9N 127.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.1N 128.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.3N 129.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 16.7N 131.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.6N 132.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.5N 132.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 19.1N 133.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 16.2N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 11.8N 41.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 12.1N 42.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 13.1N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.5N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.3N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.8N 51.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.4N 53.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.0N 56.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.6N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.6N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.9N 63.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 19.0N 64.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.5N 134.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 13.6N 134.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 14.0N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 13.9N 135.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.5N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 13.3N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 13.4N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 13.3N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 13.8N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 14.5N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 15.3N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.2N 150.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2019 12.3N 149.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.6N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 14.2N 152.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 14.1N 153.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 14.1N 155.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 14.3N 156.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 14.6N 157.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 15.2N 158.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.6N 157.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.7N 95.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.7N 95.3W WEAK
00UTC 19.09.2019 14.4N 95.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 15.0N 95.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.7N 112.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 14.7N 112.1W WEAK
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.1N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 17.2N 116.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.6N 117.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.7N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 17.5N 118.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 17.3N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 16.3N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 20.0N 174.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 20.0N 174.1W MODERATE
00UTC 19.09.2019 21.0N 171.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 22.8N 170.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 25.4N 171.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 27.3N 174.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 29.5N 178.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 30.8N 177.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 31.8N 175.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.1N 39.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 14.1N 39.9W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2019 14.1N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 14.8N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 15.1N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 16.1N 53.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 21.4N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 14.2N 100.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.09.2019 14.2N 100.6W MODERATE
00UTC 21.09.2019 14.9N 102.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 15.3N 105.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 15.9N 107.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160359

>

2019-09-16 03:01

WTPN31 PHNC 160400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 122.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 122.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.3N 123.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.3N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.2N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.0N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.0N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.4N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.6N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160400Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 122.7W.
16SEP19. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 972 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-16 02:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 160232 RRA
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2019

KIKO HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THE EYE OF THE
HURRICANE HAS BEEN FILLING, AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT AS
SYMMETRIC AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 110 KT, FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.
RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH KIKO IS A POWERFUL
HURRICANE, ITS WIND FIELD IS QUITE COMPACT. BASED ON THAT DATA,
KIKO'S TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND NO MORE THAN 50 N MI FROM
THE CENTER, WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ESTIMATED TO EXTEND UP TO 20
N MI FROM THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT, STEERED BY A NARROW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE MODELS ALL DEPICT
KIKO BENDING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS NORTHWEST. AFTER THAT TIME,
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY WITH SOME TAKING KIKO TO
THE NORTHWEST AND OTHERS MORE WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD. THE NHC
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES ROUGHLY NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, AND THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KIKO WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

THE INTENSITY MODELS ALL SHOW KIKO GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THIS WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE A RESULT OF
UPWELLING DUE TO ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION AND PERHAPS INTRUSIONS OF
DRY AIR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE

>

2019-09-16 02:34

WTPZ43 KNHC 160232
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Kiko has lost some organization this evening. The eye of the
hurricane has been filling, and the convective pattern is not as
symmetric as it was earlier today. The initial intensity is
lowered only slightly to 110 kt, following a blend of the latest
satellite intensity estimates, but this could be a little generous.
Recent ASCAT data indicate that although Kiko is a powerful
hurricane, its wind field is quite compact. Based on that data,
Kiko's tropical-storm-force winds extend no more than 50 n mi from
the center, with hurricane-force winds estimated to extend up to 20
n mi from the center.

The hurricane is moving westward at about 7 kt, steered by a narrow
subtropical ridge to its north. This motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected for about 24 hours. The models all depict
Kiko bending to the west-southwest late Monday and Tuesday in
response to a ridge building to its northwest. After that time,
the model solutions diverge considerably with some taking Kiko to
the northwest and others more westward or southwestward. The NHC
official track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance
envelope, and the bottom line is that Kiko will likely be moving
slowly over the eastern Pacific waters during the next several
days.

The intensity models all show Kiko gradually weakening through the
forecast period. Some of this weakening is likely to be a result of
upwelling due to its expected slow motion and perhaps intrusions of
dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one and generally follows the guidance of the intensity
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.2N 122.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-16 02:34

WTPZ33 KNHC 160231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2019

...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 122.6W
ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H) AND A SLOW WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

KIKO IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB (28.17 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-16 02:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 160231 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

>

2019-09-16 02:33

WTPZ23 KNHC 160231
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 122.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2019-09-15 21:19

WTPN31 PHNC 152200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 121.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 121.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.3N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.4N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.4N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.3N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.2N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.4N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.5N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152200Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 121.9W.
15SEP19. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 966 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-15 20:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 152032 RRA
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2019

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIKO IS IMPROVING AGAIN DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE SYSTEM WAS LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED
SHORTLY AFTER THE ADVISORY. OVERALL, THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO
HAVE A DISTINCT EYE AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 115 KT, WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE
LATEST TAFB FIX.

WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO KIKO'S FORWARD MOTION, WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 6 KT, THE TRACK FORECAST IS CHANGING A FAIR BIT IN THIS
ADVISORY. THE LONG-EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST PATH
OF THE HURRICANE WITH THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND
SLOWER ON THIS CYCLE. IN ADDITION, THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COULD EVEN CAUSE A SLIGHTLY
SOUTH-OF-WEST TRACK. THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS ADJUSTED TO THE
SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT THE UKMET, ECMWF AND
CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS ARE ALL EVEN FARTHER SOUTH, SUGGESTING
FURTHER MODIFICATIONS COULD BE NECESSARY LATER.

THE CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST WILL KEEP KIKO OVER WARMER WATER
LONGER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE AT ONLY ABOUT 4 KT BY TOMORROW-- SLOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING UNDER THE CENTRAL CORE. THUS GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH THE NEW FORECAST IS AT OR ABOVE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCE AT LONG RANGE IS A HIGHER FORECAST INTENSITY, MOSTLY DUE

>

2019-09-15 20:34

WTPZ43 KNHC 152032
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

The satellite presentation of Kiko is improving again during the
past couple of hours after the system was looking less organized
shortly after the advisory. Overall, the hurricane continues to
have a distinct eye and very deep convection in the eyewall. The
initial wind speed will remain 115 kt, which is closest to the
latest TAFB fix.

While there have been no changes to Kiko's forward motion, westward
at about 6 kt, the track forecast is changing a fair bit in this
advisory. The long-expected weakness in the subtropical ridge in a
couple of days continues to have less influence on the forecast path
of the hurricane with the bulk of the models shifting southward and
slower on this cycle. In addition, the orientation of the ridge
extending from the central Pacific could even cause a slightly
south-of-west track. The new NHC prediction is adjusted to the
south and slower than the previous one, but the UKMET, ECMWF and
corrected consensus models are all even farther south, suggesting
further modifications could be necessary later.

The changes to the track forecast will keep Kiko over warmer water
longer than initially thought. However, it is still forecast to
move at only about 4 kt by tomorrow-- slow enough to cause
significant upwelling under the central core. Thus gradual
weakening is anticipated, although the new forecast is at or above
the model consensus for the next few days. The only notable
difference at long range is a higher forecast intensity, mostly due
to the track shifting south about a degree, which keeps the cyclone
out of more marginal water temperatures with less shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 17.2N 121.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-15 20:34

WTPZ33 KNHC 152031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2019

...POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 121.9W
ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 3 DAYS.

KIKO IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB (28.06 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-15 20:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 152031 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

>

2019-09-15 20:32

WTPZ23 KNHC 152031
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-15 15:59

WTNT82 EGRR 151558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 77.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2019 0 28.7N 77.8W 998 47
0000UTC 16.09.2019 12 29.2N 77.8W 989 56
1200UTC 16.09.2019 24 29.8N 76.7W 970 67
0000UTC 17.09.2019 36 30.3N 75.4W 966 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 48 31.1N 74.1W 958 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 60 31.7N 72.2W 950 79
1200UTC 18.09.2019 72 32.2N 70.1W 933 92
0000UTC 19.09.2019 84 32.8N 67.1W 915 104
1200UTC 19.09.2019 96 34.2N 62.6W 923 91
0000UTC 20.09.2019 108 36.5N 56.9W 967 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 120 38.5N 51.5W 990 55
0000UTC 21.09.2019 132 39.2N 43.4W 999 48
1200UTC 21.09.2019 144 41.3N 31.4W 1001 35

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 120.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2019 0 16.9N 120.9W 982 54
0000UTC 16.09.2019 12 17.1N 122.2W 985 50
1200UTC 16.09.2019 24 17.2N 123.4W 988 48
0000UTC 17.09.2019 36 17.0N 124.2W 988 48
1200UTC 17.09.2019 48 16.6N 125.1W 986 51
0000UTC 18.09.2019 60 16.3N 126.1W 986 50
1200UTC 18.09.2019 72 16.1N 127.1W 987 49
0000UTC 19.09.2019 84 16.0N 128.4W 988 48
1200UTC 19.09.2019 96 16.1N 129.6W 986 49
0000UTC 20.09.2019 108 16.9N 130.2W 984 51
1200UTC 20.09.2019 120 17.6N 130.3W 987 51
0000UTC 21.09.2019 132 18.0N 130.5W 990 47
1200UTC 21.09.2019 144 18.1N 130.8W 996 44

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.8N 134.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 12 12.8N 134.5W 1007 24
1200UTC 16.09.2019 24 13.1N 134.7W 1007 25
0000UTC 17.09.2019 36 13.6N 135.3W 1006 25
1200UTC 17.09.2019 48 13.6N 135.7W 1007 24
0000UTC 18.09.2019 60 13.4N 135.9W 1006 26
1200UTC 18.09.2019 72 12.8N 136.4W 1006 26
0000UTC 19.09.2019 84 12.9N 137.1W 1006 25
1200UTC 19.09.2019 96 13.0N 137.8W 1006 25
0000UTC 20.09.2019 108 13.2N 138.2W 1005 26
1200UTC 20.09.2019 120 13.8N 138.5W 1005 26
0000UTC 21.09.2019 132 14.4N 138.8W 1005 25
1200UTC 21.09.2019 144 15.4N 139.2W 1005 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 14.2N 162.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 24 14.2N 162.2W 1005 23
0000UTC 17.09.2019 36 15.0N 163.5W 1003 26
1200UTC 17.09.2019 48 15.7N 164.5W 1002 27
0000UTC 18.09.2019 60 17.5N 164.5W 999 35
1200UTC 18.09.2019 72 19.5N 164.8W 995 49
0000UTC 19.09.2019 84 23.1N 166.2W 994 51
1200UTC 19.09.2019 96 23.9N 168.9W 995 41
0000UTC 20.09.2019 108 24.5N 170.4W 997 37
1200UTC 20.09.2019 120 25.0N 172.1W 1000 32
0000UTC 21.09.2019 132 25.7N 175.1W 1001 31
1200UTC 21.09.2019 144 26.5N 178.6W 1004 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.4N 41.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 36 11.7N 41.7W 1009 24
1200UTC 17.09.2019 48 13.1N 42.9W 1007 30
0000UTC 18.09.2019 60 14.5N 44.5W 1004 34
1200UTC 18.09.2019 72 15.1N 46.9W 1001 36
0000UTC 19.09.2019 84 15.6N 49.4W 996 39
1200UTC 19.09.2019 96 16.1N 51.8W 993 50
0000UTC 20.09.2019 108 17.0N 53.4W 991 55
1200UTC 20.09.2019 120 17.8N 54.8W 986 58
0000UTC 21.09.2019 132 18.5N 56.2W 981 75
1200UTC 21.09.2019 144 19.0N 57.8W 981 68

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.9N 150.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 48 12.1N 150.9W 1006 22
0000UTC 18.09.2019 60 12.2N 150.0W 1006 22
1200UTC 18.09.2019 72 13.7N 150.8W 1005 26
0000UTC 19.09.2019 84 14.3N 152.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 19.09.2019 96 13.9N 154.3W 1004 27
0000UTC 20.09.2019 108 13.9N 155.6W 1003 24
1200UTC 20.09.2019 120 13.8N 156.5W 1003 26
0000UTC 21.09.2019 132 14.3N 157.2W 1002 27
1200UTC 21.09.2019 144 14.8N 157.7W 1002 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.5N 35.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2019 60 15.5N 35.4W 1010 23
1200UTC 18.09.2019 72 16.1N 37.0W 1007 29
0000UTC 19.09.2019 84 17.1N 38.9W 1007 32
1200UTC 19.09.2019 96 17.7N 42.0W 1009 35
0000UTC 20.09.2019 108 19.4N 45.7W 1012 32
1200UTC 20.09.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.7N 113.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 84 15.7N 113.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 19.09.2019 96 17.2N 115.1W 1003 31
0000UTC 20.09.2019 108 17.7N 116.3W 1001 36
1200UTC 20.09.2019 120 17.7N 116.5W 1002 29
0000UTC 21.09.2019 132 17.4N 116.2W 1003 26
1200UTC 21.09.2019 144 17.0N 115.8W 1006 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.8N 99.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2019 120 13.8N 99.7W 1002 31
0000UTC 21.09.2019 132 14.0N 101.2W 992 45
1200UTC 21.09.2019 144 14.4N 103.9W 979 58


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151558

>

2019-09-15 15:59

WTNT80 EGRR 151558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 77.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2019 28.7N 77.8W MODERATE
00UTC 16.09.2019 29.2N 77.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2019 29.8N 76.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 30.3N 75.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 31.1N 74.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 31.7N 72.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 32.2N 70.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 32.8N 67.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 34.2N 62.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.09.2019 36.5N 56.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 38.5N 51.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 39.2N 43.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 41.3N 31.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 120.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2019 16.9N 120.9W MODERATE
00UTC 16.09.2019 17.1N 122.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 17.2N 123.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 17.0N 124.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 16.6N 125.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.3N 126.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 16.1N 127.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.0N 128.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.1N 129.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 16.9N 130.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.6N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 130.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.1N 130.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.8N 134.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2019 12.8N 134.5W WEAK
12UTC 16.09.2019 13.1N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 13.6N 135.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 13.6N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 13.4N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 12.8N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 12.9N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 13.0N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 13.2N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 13.8N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 14.4N 138.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 15.4N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 14.2N 162.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2019 14.2N 162.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 15.0N 163.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 15.7N 164.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 17.5N 164.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 19.5N 164.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 23.1N 166.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 23.9N 168.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 24.5N 170.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 25.0N 172.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 25.7N 175.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 26.5N 178.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.4N 41.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 11.7N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 13.1N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.5N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.1N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.6N 49.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.1N 51.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.0N 53.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.8N 54.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.5N 56.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 19.0N 57.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.9N 150.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 12.1N 150.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 12.2N 150.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.7N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 14.3N 152.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 13.9N 154.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 13.9N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 13.8N 156.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 14.3N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 14.8N 157.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.5N 35.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2019 15.5N 35.4W WEAK
12UTC 18.09.2019 16.1N 37.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 17.1N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 17.7N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 19.4N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.7N 113.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.7N 113.5W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2019 17.2N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.7N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.7N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 17.4N 116.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 17.0N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.8N 99.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.09.2019 13.8N 99.7W WEAK
00UTC 21.09.2019 14.0N 101.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 14.4N 103.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151558

>

2019-09-15 15:22

WTPN31 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 120.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 120.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.1N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.3N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.4N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.5N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.5N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.0N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.5N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 121.2W.
15SEP19. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 969 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-15 14:56

WTPZ43 KNHC 151454 RRA
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2019

KIKO HAS BECOME A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE OVERNIGHT, WITH A WARM EYE
AND STRONG EYEWALL CONVECTION. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ALSO FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC, EXCEPT FAVORING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE SLIGHTLY DUE TO
SOME EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 115 KT, WHICH
MATCHES THE LATEST ADT AND TAFB ESTIMATES.

THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY TODAY WHILE IT IN IS
A LOW-SHEAR, MARGINAL WARM-WATER ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THOSE CONDITIONS
DON'T CHANGE THAT MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, KIKO IS FORECAST
TO BE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY OVER THAT TIME, WHICH WILL LIKELY STIR UP
SOME COOLER WATERS AND HELP WEAKEN THE CONVECTION. A STEADIER
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AT LONG-RANGE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE
NEW FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE LAST ONE, BUT HIGHER THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT ISN'T OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT
KIKO COULD TRANSITION INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE, WHICH TEND TO
MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITIES HIGHER THAN AVERAGE, SO I'M HESITANT TO
REDUCE THE FORECAST TOO MUCH FOR NOW.

KIKO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT TWO DAYS, KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK. A
WEAKNESS OR EVEN A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY ALL OF THE
MODELS DUE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WITH PERHAPS A RESTRENGTHENING
OF THE RIDGE AT LONG RANGE. THERE'S BEEN A SUBTLE MODEL TREND
TOWARD SUPPORTING THE RIDGE REMAINING WEAK BUT INTACT, WHICH WOULD

>

2019-09-15 14:56

WTPZ43 KNHC 151454
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Kiko has become a very powerful hurricane overnight, with a warm eye
and strong eyewall convection. The cloud pattern is also fairly
symmetric, except favoring the western semicircle slightly due to
some easterly shear. The initial wind speed is set to 115 kt, which
matches the latest ADT and TAFB estimates.

The hurricane should be near its peak intensity today while it in is
a low-shear, marginal warm-water environment. While those conditions
don't change that much during the next few days, Kiko is forecast
to be moving fairly slowly over that time, which will likely stir up
some cooler waters and help weaken the convection. A steadier
weakening is expected at long-range due to an increase in shear. The
new forecast is somewhat lower than the last one, but higher than
the model consensus. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that
Kiko could transition into an annular hurricane, which tend to
maintain their intensities higher than average, so I'm hesitant to
reduce the forecast too much for now.

Kiko is moving westward at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone is forecast to remain in place for about the
next two days, keeping the hurricane on a slow westward track. A
weakness or even a break in the ridge is then forecast by all of the
models due to a mid-latitude trough, with perhaps a restrengthening
of the ridge at long range. There's been a subtle model trend
toward supporting the ridge remaining weak but intact, which would
favor Kiko moving very slowly westward instead of any significant
rightward turn. The latest NHC prediction places a greater weight
on the UKMET and ECMWF models and their ensembles, which generally
favor the weak ridge scenario. No significant changes were made to
the previous forecast track, but the long-range track confidence is
low due to the large model spread at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 17.0N 121.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-15 14:55

WTPZ23 KNHC 151452 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

>

2019-09-15 14:54

WTPZ33 KNHC 151453
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...KIKO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 121.1W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 121.1 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a slow westward track is
forecast during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Kiko is now a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is
forecast during the next 3 days.

Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-15 14:54

WTPZ23 KNHC 151452
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 121.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-15 09:52

WTPN31 PHNC 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 16.9N 120.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 120.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.9N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.2N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.5N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.6N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.8N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.1N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.5N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151000Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 120.9W.
15SEP19. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 965 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-15 08:58

WTPZ43 KNHC 150855 RRA
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2019

KIKO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW CHARACTERIZED
BY A COLD RING OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BELOW -70
DEGREES CELSIUS SURROUNDING A CLEARING, WELL-DEFINED EYE. BOTH
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
INCREASED, AND A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES INDICATE AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 110 KT.

THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE AND STRUCTURE OF KIKO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS SUGGESTS THAT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY,
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES KIKO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME BECOMES
CHALLENGING. DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY WEAKEN
KIKO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, OTHER THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INDICATED IN SHIPS GUIDANCE, THERE ARE NO
OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS THAT STAND OUT AS A GOOD REASON FOR
KIKO TO WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS SHOWN BY THAT GUIDANCE. IT IS ALSO
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD IN THE
FORECAST POSITION OF KIKO BY 72 HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE PLACES
KIKO OVER COOL SSTS BY DAY 3, WHILE SOME SOLUTIONS KEEP KIKO OVER
WARMER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FOREAST, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE, DOES INDICATE SOME WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS, BUT
AT A SLOWER RATE THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE LATEST
FORECAST HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVER WARM WATER. AFTER 72 HOURS,
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KIKO SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME.

>

2019-09-15 08:57

WTPZ43 KNHC 150855
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Kiko has continued to strengthen overnight and is now characterized
by a cold ring of convection with cloud top temperatures below -70
degrees Celsius surrounding a clearing, well-defined eye. Both
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
increased, and a blend of these estimates indicate an initial
intensity of 110 kt.

The improved appearance and structure of Kiko over the past several
hours suggests that some additional strengthening is possible today,
and the official forecast makes Kiko a category 4 hurricane by this
afternoon. The intensity forecast beyond that time becomes
challenging. Dynamical and statistical guidance unanimously weaken
Kiko over the next few days. However, other than a slight increase
in northeasterly shear indicated in SHIPS guidance, there are no
other environmental indicators that stand out as a good reason for
Kiko to weaken as quickly as shown by that guidance. It is also
interesting to note that there is significant model spread in the
forecast position of Kiko by 72 hours. Some of the guidance places
Kiko over cool SSTs by day 3, while some solutions keep Kiko over
warmer water. The official foreast, which is similar to the
previous one, does indicate some weakening through 72 hours, but
at a slower rate than the majority of the guidance since the latest
forecast has trended southward over warm water. After 72 hours,
increasing southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough to the
northwest of Kiko should cause steady weakening after that time.

Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt. A mid level
ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it generally on a
west or west-northwestward track for the next couple of days. As
mentioned previously, the models diverge by 72 hours as they
differ in how they handle a mid to upper-level trough approaching
California from the west. The northernmost solutions produce a
break in the ridge with a sharper trough. The southern solutions
keep the ridge in tact. Based on the continuation of a slight
southward trend in the guidance, and the southward bias in the
actual track of the cyclone recently, I am placing a little more
weight on the southern solutions. However, given the large spread
beyond 72 hours, the track confidence during that time is low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.9N 120.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 16.9N 121.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 17.6N 124.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 18.1N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-15 08:57

WTPZ33 KNHC 150854
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2019

...KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 120.7W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST,
AND KIKO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB (28.17 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-15 08:56

WTPZ23 KNHC 150853 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.9N 121.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.6N 124.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

>

2019-09-15 08:54

WTPZ23 KNHC 150853
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.9N 121.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.6N 124.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.1N 128.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2019-09-15 03:58

WTNT82 EGRR 150357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 77.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2019 0 27.4N 77.3W 1003 43
1200UTC 15.09.2019 12 28.5N 78.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 16.09.2019 24 29.2N 77.8W 994 49
1200UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.7N 76.8W 986 53
0000UTC 17.09.2019 48 30.0N 75.2W 978 57
1200UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 73.6W 968 69
0000UTC 18.09.2019 72 31.4N 71.5W 958 72
1200UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.1N 69.0W 948 79
0000UTC 19.09.2019 96 33.1N 64.9W 931 96
1200UTC 19.09.2019 108 35.4N 60.0W 935 95
0000UTC 20.09.2019 120 37.5N 54.8W 979 56
1200UTC 20.09.2019 132 39.8N 48.7W 994 54
0000UTC 21.09.2019 144 41.9N 39.0W 1001 44

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 119.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2019 0 16.7N 119.8W 984 51
1200UTC 15.09.2019 12 16.9N 121.3W 978 56
0000UTC 16.09.2019 24 16.7N 122.6W 979 56
1200UTC 16.09.2019 36 17.0N 123.4W 984 52
0000UTC 17.09.2019 48 17.3N 124.2W 983 52
1200UTC 17.09.2019 60 17.2N 125.4W 986 49
0000UTC 18.09.2019 72 17.0N 126.8W 992 44
1200UTC 18.09.2019 84 16.4N 128.2W 992 44
0000UTC 19.09.2019 96 16.3N 129.9W 993 46
1200UTC 19.09.2019 108 16.5N 131.5W 989 51
0000UTC 20.09.2019 120 17.7N 132.5W 988 50
1200UTC 20.09.2019 132 19.2N 132.9W 990 54
0000UTC 21.09.2019 144 20.3N 132.7W 997 46

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.4N 136.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 24 13.1N 136.4W 1006 28
1200UTC 16.09.2019 36 12.7N 135.8W 1005 25
0000UTC 17.09.2019 48 12.8N 136.4W 1005 22
1200UTC 17.09.2019 60 12.8N 136.2W 1006 23
0000UTC 18.09.2019 72 12.4N 136.4W 1006 25
1200UTC 18.09.2019 84 11.9N 136.4W 1005 25
0000UTC 19.09.2019 96 12.2N 136.6W 1005 29
1200UTC 19.09.2019 108 12.6N 136.9W 1005 33
0000UTC 20.09.2019 120 13.3N 136.8W 1003 34
1200UTC 20.09.2019 132 14.8N 136.4W 1004 33
0000UTC 21.09.2019 144 16.0N 136.2W 1005 41

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.7N 40.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 36 11.4N 41.3W 1008 30
0000UTC 17.09.2019 48 12.3N 43.1W 1004 37
1200UTC 17.09.2019 60 13.8N 44.8W 1000 40
0000UTC 18.09.2019 72 14.9N 46.8W 995 45
1200UTC 18.09.2019 84 15.6N 49.2W 988 49
0000UTC 19.09.2019 96 16.3N 51.6W 986 54
1200UTC 19.09.2019 108 17.2N 53.4W 984 62
0000UTC 20.09.2019 120 18.7N 54.9W 979 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 132 19.5N 56.6W 978 68
0000UTC 21.09.2019 144 19.8N 57.9W 971 78

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.3N 150.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 36 11.3N 150.1W 1006 23
0000UTC 17.09.2019 48 12.1N 150.5W 1006 24
1200UTC 17.09.2019 60 12.2N 151.7W 1006 24
0000UTC 18.09.2019 72 12.9N 151.4W 1006 21
1200UTC 18.09.2019 84 13.5N 152.0W 1005 23
0000UTC 19.09.2019 96 13.9N 153.0W 1005 24
1200UTC 19.09.2019 108 13.9N 153.9W 1004 25
0000UTC 20.09.2019 120 13.7N 154.7W 1003 24
1200UTC 20.09.2019 132 13.9N 155.9W 1003 29
0000UTC 21.09.2019 144 14.2N 156.6W 1002 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.5N 163.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 48 14.5N 163.8W 1004 25
1200UTC 17.09.2019 60 15.2N 164.2W 1003 26
0000UTC 18.09.2019 72 16.5N 164.7W 1002 31
1200UTC 18.09.2019 84 17.7N 164.3W 1000 37
0000UTC 19.09.2019 96 19.4N 164.3W 1001 36
1200UTC 19.09.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.8N 111.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 84 14.3N 111.9W 1004 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 96 16.1N 113.9W 1003 28
1200UTC 19.09.2019 108 17.0N 115.1W 1003 34
0000UTC 20.09.2019 120 17.5N 115.6W 1002 34
1200UTC 20.09.2019 132 17.5N 115.6W 1003 29
0000UTC 21.09.2019 144 17.5N 115.7W 1004 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.3N 36.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 84 15.0N 36.9W 1008 29
0000UTC 19.09.2019 96 15.3N 39.1W 1006 36
1200UTC 19.09.2019 108 16.0N 42.2W 1007 38
0000UTC 20.09.2019 120 17.3N 45.7W 1009 37
1200UTC 20.09.2019 132 19.4N 49.2W 1011 41
0000UTC 21.09.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 23.6N 168.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2019 120 23.6N 168.6W 999 34
1200UTC 20.09.2019 132 23.2N 170.4W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2019 144 23.2N 171.6W 1002 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 16.2N 102.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2019 144 16.3N 103.8W 1002 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150356

>

2019-09-15 03:57

WTNT80 EGRR 150356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 77.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2019 27.4N 77.3W WEAK
12UTC 15.09.2019 28.5N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 29.2N 77.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2019 29.7N 76.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 30.0N 75.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 30.7N 73.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 31.4N 71.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 32.1N 69.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 33.1N 64.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 35.4N 60.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 37.5N 54.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 39.8N 48.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 41.9N 39.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 119.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2019 16.7N 119.8W MODERATE
12UTC 15.09.2019 16.9N 121.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2019 16.7N 122.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 17.0N 123.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 17.3N 124.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 17.2N 125.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 17.0N 126.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 16.4N 128.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.3N 129.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.5N 131.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.7N 132.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 19.2N 132.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 20.3N 132.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.4N 136.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2019 13.1N 136.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.09.2019 12.7N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 12.8N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 12.8N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 12.4N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 11.9N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 12.2N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 12.6N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 13.3N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 14.8N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 16.0N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.7N 40.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2019 11.4N 41.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 12.3N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 13.8N 44.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.9N 46.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.6N 49.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.3N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 17.2N 53.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 18.7N 54.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 19.5N 56.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 19.8N 57.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.3N 150.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2019 11.3N 150.1W WEAK
00UTC 17.09.2019 12.1N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 12.2N 151.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 12.9N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.5N 152.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 13.9N 153.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 13.9N 153.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 13.7N 154.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 13.9N 155.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 14.2N 156.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.5N 163.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 14.5N 163.8W WEAK
12UTC 17.09.2019 15.2N 164.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.5N 164.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 17.7N 164.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 19.4N 164.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.8N 111.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 14.3N 111.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.1N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 17.0N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.5N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.5N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 17.5N 115.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.3N 36.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.0N 36.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.3N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.0N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.3N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 19.4N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 23.6N 168.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.09.2019 23.6N 168.6W MODERATE
12UTC 20.09.2019 23.2N 170.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 23.2N 171.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 16.2N 102.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.09.2019 16.3N 103.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150356

>

2019-09-15 03:00

WTPN31 PHNC 150400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 119.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 119.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.0N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.2N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.6N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.8N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.2N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.5N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150400Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 120.2W.
15SEP19. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 952 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-15 02:20

WTPZ43 KNHC 150216 RRA
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2019

KIKO HAS UNDERGONE A REMARKABLE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 100 KT, 55 KT
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT'S ESTIMATE AT THE SAME TIME. THE HURRICANE
BRIEFLY DEVELOPED A VERY CLEAR EYE EARLIER TODAY, AND ALTHOUGH THE
EYE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY OBSCURED BY AN INCREASE IN EYEWALL
CONVECTION, IT STILL HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE.
THE 100 KT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 90 TO 105 KT.

THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY KIKO WOULD STOP STRENGTHENING IN THE
SHORT TERM. THE HURRICANE IS CLEARLY NOT BEING AFFECTED BY ANY OF
THE DRY AIR TO ITS EAST, SSTS BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE WARM, AND THE
SHEAR IS QUITE LOW. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 36 H OR
SO, AND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH
THROUGH THAT PERIOD. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
QUITE COMPLICATED. KIKO WILL BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO A STRONG
SST GRADIENT. IF THE HURRICANE MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST,
IT COULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR LONGER THAN INDICATED. BUT IF IT
MOVES FARTHER NORTH, IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN QUICKLY. KIKO IS ALSO
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN, AND UPWELLING OF COLDER WATER COULD ALSO
BECOME A FACTOR IN A FEW DAYS, EVEN IF THE HURRICANE STAYS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SST GRADIENT. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 36 H, BUT IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, MOST OF WHICH IS TIED TO A FORECAST TRACK NORTH

>

2019-09-15 02:20

WTPZ33 KNHC 150216
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2019

...KIKO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 120.1W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MONDAY, BUT KIKO
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB (28.53 INCHES).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-15 02:19

WTPZ43 KNHC 150216
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko has undergone a remarkable intensification over the past 24
hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is 100 kt, 55 kt
higher than last night's estimate at the same time. The hurricane
briefly developed a very clear eye earlier today, and although the
eye has become slightly obscured by an increase in eyewall
convection, it still has a very impressive satellite appearance.
The 100 kt intensity is based on a blend of recent subjective and
objective estimates that range from 90 to 105 kt.

There is no obvious reason why Kiko would stop strengthening in the
short term. The hurricane is clearly not being affected by any of
the dry air to its east, SSTs beneath the cyclone are warm, and the
shear is quite low. This should be the case for the next 36 h or
so, and Kiko is expected to at least maintain its current strength
through that period. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is
quite complicated. Kiko will be moving nearly parallel to a strong
SST gradient. If the hurricane moves farther south than forecast,
it could maintain its strength for longer than indicated. But if it
moves farther north, it will likely weaken quickly. Kiko is also
forecast to slow down, and upwelling of colder water could also
become a factor in a few days, even if the hurricane stays on the
warm side of the SST gradient. The NHC forecast continues to show
gradual weakening beyond 36 h, but is on the high side of the
intensity guidance, most of which is tied to a forecast track north
of the latest NHC forecast.

The hurricane has slowed a little but is still moving west with a
motion of 270/8 kt. For the next couple of days a mid-level ridge
should keep Kiko moving generally westward at a similar forward
speed. Beyond that time, there is significant divergence between
the models. The GFS and regional hurricane models all show the
ridge weakening, allowing Kiko to turn northwestward. The ECMWF and
UKMET (as well as a clear majority of their ensembles) show no such
weakness forming and keep Kiko moving steadily westward through
mid-week. Unfortunately, no one solution appears superior at this
point, so the NHC forecast isn't fully following either group of
models. Instead it has been adjusted only modestly southward, and
remains close to the multi-model consensus. Needless to say,
confidence in the forecast is quite low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.0N 120.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-15 02:18

WTPZ23 KNHC 150216 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.1W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.1W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 119.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

>

2019-09-15 02:18

WTPZ23 KNHC 150216
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.1W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.1W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 119.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 120.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-15 00:40

WTPZ63 KNHC 150036 CCA
TCUEP3

Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
530 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Corrected location coordinates

...HURRICANE KIKO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

Recent satellite-based intensity estimates indicate that Hurricane
Kiko has rapidly strengthened since the last advisory. The maximum
sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The higher
intensity will be reflected in the next forecast advisory, which
will be issued before 800 PM PDT.


SUMMARY OF 530 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 119.7W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-15 00:33

WTPZ63 KNHC 150030
TCUEP3

HURRICANE KIKO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
530 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2019

...HURRICANE KIKO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

RECENT SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE
KIKO HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 110 MPH (175 KM/H). THE HIGHER
INTENSITY WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST ADVISORY, WHICH
WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE 800 PM PDT.


SUMMARY OF 530 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 117.9W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-14 21:28

WTPN31 PHNC 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 119.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 119.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.2N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.4N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.7N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.0N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.7N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.0N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142200Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 119.5W.
14SEP19. HURRICANE 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 942 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-14 20:40

WTPZ43 KNHC 142036 RRA
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2019

KIKO HAS CONTINUED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TODAY, WITH AN EYE BECOMING
APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
T4.5 (77 KT), AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS ADT AND SATCON
ARE AROUND 75 KT. ON THIS BASIS, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AS BEEN
RAISED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, AND KIKO BECOMES THE SIXTH
HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN THIS SEASON. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WHILE KIKO REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT TIME, SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND A
LITTLE INCREASE IN SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. A
FASTER RATE OF FILLING IS EXPECTED AFTER 72 HOURS WHEN KIKO IS
FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE, ONCE
AGAIN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.

RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF KIKO IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES, WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/10 KT. KIKO IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED WESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE KIKO TO SLOW DOWN AND GAIN SOME LATITUDE. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE USUALLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, WITH

>

2019-09-14 20:39

WTPZ43 KNHC 142036
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko has continued to quickly strengthen today, with an eye becoming
apparent in geostationary and microwave satellite imagery. The
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T4.5 (77 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON
are around 75 kt. On this basis, the initial wind speed as been
raised to 75 kt for this advisory, and Kiko becomes the sixth
hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin this season. Some
additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so
while Kiko remains over warm water and within low vertical wind
shear conditions. After that time, slightly cooler waters and a
little increase in shear are likely to cause gradual weakening. A
faster rate of filling is expected after 72 hours when Kiko is
forecast to encounter stronger westerly shear. The new NHC
intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, once
again in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Recent microwave fixes show that the center of Kiko is a little
south of the previous estimates, which results in a more westward
initial motion estimate of 270/10 kt. Kiko is currently being
steered westward by a mid-level ridge that extends westward over
the eastern Pacific from northern Mexico. The western portion of
the ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days which
should cause Kiko to slow down and gain some latitude. There
continues to be usually large spread in the track guidance, with
the spread over 400 n mi by day 5. The latest trend in the
guidance is slower and farther southward after 48 hours, so the NHC
track has been adjusted in the direction. The new track forecast
is not as slow as the lastest consensus models, so additional
adjustment may be required in future advisories. In summary, the
confidence in the track forecast remains quite low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 17.1N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-14 20:38

WTPZ33 KNHC 142036
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2019

...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 119.3W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD COURSE AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-14 20:38

WTPZ23 KNHC 142035 RRA
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

>

2019-09-14 20:37

WTPZ23 KNHC 142035
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 119.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2019-09-14 15:59

WTNT82 EGRR 141558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 17.2N 117.9W 992 47
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 16.9N 119.8W 991 43
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 16.9N 121.4W 988 50
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 17.0N 122.8W 987 48
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 17.2N 124.0W 987 51
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 17.3N 125.3W 988 47
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 17.0N 126.8W 991 46
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 16.8N 128.3W 996 44
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 16.6N 130.1W 998 35
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 16.7N 131.9W 1000 36
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 17.2N 133.9W 1001 34
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 18.0N 135.4W 1001 33
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 19.0N 136.1W 998 43

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.3N 135.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 14.3N 135.8W 1005 28
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 13.4N 136.4W 1006 23
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 13.0N 137.1W 1005 25
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 12.4N 136.9W 1005 25
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 12.7N 137.6W 1006 24
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 11.7N 138.2W 1005 23
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 11.9N 138.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 11.7N 139.5W 1004 33
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 12.8N 140.0W 1002 35
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 13.9N 140.9W 1002 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.5N 42.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 10.5N 42.2W 1010 26
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 11.9N 44.1W 1007 30
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 13.3N 45.7W 1002 38
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 14.2N 47.8W 997 43
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 14.9N 50.3W 988 48
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 15.6N 52.9W 986 52
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 16.4N 55.0W 987 63
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 17.7N 56.6W 986 61
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 18.6N 58.4W 985 68

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.5N 150.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 12.4N 150.9W 1006 23
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 13.2N 151.6W 1006 21
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 13.4N 151.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 13.8N 152.1W 1005 23
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 14.2N 152.3W 1005 22
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 14.3N 153.3W 1004 25
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 14.5N 154.5W 1003 27
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 15.4N 155.3W 1004 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.4N 163.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 16.1N 164.0W 1003 30
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 17.2N 163.6W 1002 35
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 18.4N 164.1W 1002 35
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 20.6N 164.7W 1001 35
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 22.4N 165.5W 998 38
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 23.1N 166.1W 997 37
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 23.8N 167.6W 998 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.5N 36.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 15.5N 36.1W 1011 22
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 15.7N 37.5W 1007 34
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 16.4N 40.0W 1007 34
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 16.6N 43.3W 1008 34
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 17.8N 46.7W 1011 31
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 19.0N 50.4W 1012 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.9N 108.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 15.7N 110.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 17.1N 111.8W 1004 28
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 18.3N 113.5W 1002 35
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 18.8N 114.6W 999 34
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 18.8N 115.5W 998 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141558

>

2019-09-14 15:59

WTNT80 EGRR 141558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2019 26.6N 76.1W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2019 27.4N 77.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2019 28.4N 77.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 29.2N 77.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2019 30.0N 76.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 30.7N 75.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 31.4N 73.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 32.2N 71.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 33.1N 68.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 34.4N 63.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 37.4N 57.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.09.2019 40.0N 52.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 42.0N 44.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2019 17.2N 117.9W MODERATE
00UTC 15.09.2019 16.9N 119.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 16.9N 121.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 17.0N 122.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 17.2N 124.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 17.3N 125.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 17.0N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.8N 128.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 16.6N 130.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.7N 131.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 17.2N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 18.0N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 19.0N 136.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.3N 135.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2019 14.3N 135.8W WEAK
12UTC 16.09.2019 13.4N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 13.0N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 12.4N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 12.7N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 11.7N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 11.9N 138.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 11.7N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 12.8N 140.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 13.9N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.5N 42.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2019 10.5N 42.2W WEAK
00UTC 17.09.2019 11.9N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 13.3N 45.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.2N 47.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 14.9N 50.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.6N 52.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.4N 55.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.7N 56.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.6N 58.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.5N 150.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 12.4N 150.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 13.2N 151.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 13.4N 151.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.8N 152.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 14.2N 152.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 14.3N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 14.5N 154.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 15.4N 155.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.4N 163.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 16.1N 164.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 17.2N 163.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 18.4N 164.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 20.6N 164.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 22.4N 165.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 23.1N 166.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 23.8N 167.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.5N 36.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2019 15.5N 36.1W WEAK
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.7N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.4N 40.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.6N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.8N 46.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 19.0N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.9N 108.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.7N 110.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 17.1N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 18.3N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 18.8N 114.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.8N 115.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141558

>

2019-09-14 15:35

WTPN31 PHNC 141600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 117.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 117.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.6N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.9N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.3N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.8N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.6N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.3N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.7N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
141600Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 118.4W.
14SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-14 14:58

WTPZ43 KNHC 141455 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2019

KIKO'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE OVERPASS
FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO REVEALED SIGNIFICANT BANDING AROUND THE
CENTER, AND THAT A BANDED EYE HAD FORMED. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC WERE 55 KT, AND THE
UW/CIMSS ADT IS NOW UP TO ABOUT 60 KT. BASED ON THE CONTINUED
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO
60 KT.

KIKO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, AND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL, WHICH IS AT THE UPPER-END OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BY 72 HOURS, KIKO WILL BE MOVING INTO
AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS. AS A RESULT, STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WESTWARD (280/9 KT) TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
TRACK MODELS STILL EXHIBIT AN USUALLY LARGE SPREAD AFTER 48 HOURS,
ESPECIALLY FOR A SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THIS APPEARS
TO BE THE RESULT OF THE FORECAST VERTICAL DEPTH OF KIKO AND HOW
THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE
GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND HWRF SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, WITH A

>

2019-09-14 14:57

WTPZ43 KNHC 141455
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko's cloud pattern has continued to quickly organize overnight
and this morning. A couple of high-resolution microwave overpass
from several hours ago revealed significant banding around the
center, and that a banded eye had formed. Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC were 55 kt, and the
UW/CIMSS ADT is now up to about 60 kt. Based on the continued
increase in organization, the initial intensity has been raised to
60 kt.

Kiko is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low wind shear
environment during the next day or so. This should allow for
additional intensification, and Kiko is expected to become a
hurricane later today. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly higher peak intensity and is in best agreement with the
HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of
the guidance envelope. By 72 hours, Kiko will be moving into
an area of increasing westerly shear and over slightly cooler
waters. As a result, steady weakening is anticipated later in
forecast period.

The tropical storm is moving westward (280/9 kt) to the south of a
mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. The
track models still exhibit an usually large spread after 48 hours,
especially for a system in the eastern Pacific basin. This appears
to be the result of the forecast vertical depth of Kiko and how
the cyclone responds to a developing weakness in the ridge. The
GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a more northerly track, with a
stronger Kiko heading toward the break in the ridge. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF and UKMET take a weaker Kiko on a more westerly heading.
Since the NHC forecast shows Kiko a stronger and vertically deep
system during the next couple of days, the track forecast lies a
little north of the consensus models. After that time, Kiko is
likely to weaken and the official forecast shows a turn back toward
the west, as Kiko comes under the influence of the low-level
easterly flow. As a result of the large model spread, the
confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 17.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-14 14:56

WTPZ33 KNHC 141453
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2019

...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 118.3W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
BY TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY INTO MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-14 14:56

WTPZ23 KNHC 141453 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 118.3W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 118.3W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-14 14:54

WTPZ23 KNHC 141453
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 118.3W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 118.3W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 118.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2019-09-14 09:26

WTPN31 PHNC 141000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 17.3N 116.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 116.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.4N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.7N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.1N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.6N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.5N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.2N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.6N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
141000Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 117.2W.
14SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 924 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-14 08:42

WTPZ43 KNHC 140839 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2019

A 0205 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOWED THAT KIKO'S LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE HAS
BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER DEFINED. THE STORM HAS ALSO BEEN
PRODUCING A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH
MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS LOCATED BENEATH
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45-55 KT, BUT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM A FEW
HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS WERE BETWEEN 40-45 KT.
KIKO'S INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 45 KT, BUT THE
CYCLONE'S IMPROVED STRUCTURE LIKELY MEANS THAT ITS WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SOON. THERE'S STILL A SWATH OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE STORM, BUT NOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED, KIKO SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF LOW SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE HFIP
CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE (FSSE)
DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS, SHOWING A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND MAKING KIKO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.
WHILE THE NEW FORECAST IS ALSO A LITTLE HIGHER AT 48 HOURS, IT'S
STILL BELOW THE HCCA, FSSE, AND HWRF SOLUTIONS, SO ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENT COULD BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. WEAKENING
SHOULD COMMENCE BY DAY 3 DUE TO LITTLE TO NO OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.

KIKO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/8 KT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
TO THE NORTH SHOULD DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO

>

2019-09-14 08:41

WTPZ43 KNHC 140839
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

A 0205 UTC WindSat pass showed that Kiko's low-level structure has
become significantly better defined. The storm has also been
producing a persistent cluster of deep convection, although
microwave fixes suggest that the surface center is located beneath
the eastern side of the convective mass. Satellite intensity
estimates range from 45-55 kt, but scatterometer data from a few
hours ago indicated that maximum winds were between 40-45 kt.
Kiko's initial intensity is therefore held at 45 kt, but the
cyclone's improved structure likely means that its winds will
increase again soon. There's still a swath of dry air to the north
and west of the storm, but now that the inner core has become more
established, Kiko should be able to take advantage of low shear and
sufficiently warm waters to strengthen during the next couple of
days. The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE)
during the first 36 hours, showing a little more strengthening than
the previous forecast, and making Kiko a hurricane in 24 hours.
While the new forecast is also a little higher at 48 hours, it's
still below the HCCA, FSSE, and HWRF solutions, so additional
adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories. Weakening
should commence by day 3 due to little to no oceanic heat content
and gradually increasing westerly shear.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. Mid-level ridging
to the north should drive the cyclone on a westward to
west-northwestward heading for the entire forecast period. The
most significant gain in latitude should occur from Sunday through
Tuesday when Kiko is at its strongest and responds to a break in
the ridge between 120W and 130W. While the GFS and ECMWF models
still prefer northern and southern solutions within the guidance
envelope, respectively, the distance between the two at day 5 has
been cut in half in the latest model runs, suggesting that the track
uncertainty is not as high as it was previously. The NHC track
forecast remains close to the various multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 20.2N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-14 08:41

WTPZ33 KNHC 140839
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2019

...KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 117.1W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. KIKO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN HURRICANE
INTENSITY INTO MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-14 08:41

WTPZ23 KNHC 140839 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.1W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.1W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-14 08:40

WTPZ23 KNHC 140839
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.1W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.1W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 20.2N 126.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 117.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2019-09-14 03:06

WTPN31 PHNC 140400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 115.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 115.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.4N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.6N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.9N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.5N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.4N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.2N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.5N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140400Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 116.3W.
14SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 945 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-14 02:44

WTPZ43 KNHC 140241 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2019

KIKO MAY HAVE FINALLY KICKED THE DRY AIR OUT OF ITS INNER CORE.
THERE HAS BEEN A DRAMATIC EXPANSION OF COLD CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE, AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MUCH GREATER THAN IT WAS 24 H
AGO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE GONE UP AND
NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THIS VALUE IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN, AND IT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT KIKO HAS NOT STRENGTHENED
QUITE THAT MUCH AT THIS POINT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KIKO,
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 285/8 KT. IN THE SHORT
TERM, THE INITIAL POSITION MAY ACTUALLY BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE CYCLONE SHOULD HEAD WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
BEGINNING MONDAY, KIKO COULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD IF IT SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPENS, AS SHOWN BY THE GFS,
HWRF, AND HMON MODELS, OR IT COULD JUST ACCELERATE GENERALLY
WESTWARD, AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. THE SPREAD
GROWS QUITE QUICKLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NEARLY 500 N MI APART BY DAY 5. THE NHC FORECAST
SPLITS THESE 2 SCENARIOS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET, AND FOLLOWS
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CLOSELY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DESPITE ITS RECENT CONVECTIVE RESURGENCE, THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS

>

2019-09-14 02:44

WTPZ43 KNHC 140241
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko may have finally kicked the dry air out of its inner core.
There has been a dramatic expansion of cold cloud tops extending
from the center of the cyclone, and recent microwave imagery
confirms that convective activity is much greater than it was 24 h
ago. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have gone up and
now support an initial intensity of 45 kt. This value is fairly
uncertain, and it certainly possible that Kiko has not strengthened
quite that much at this point.

It has been very difficult to identify the low-level center of Kiko,
and the initial motion is a very uncertain 285/8 kt. In the short
term, the initial position may actually be the main source of
uncertainty in the forecast. The cyclone should head westward or
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next
couple of days, and the guidance is very tightly clustered.
Beginning Monday, Kiko could turn west-northwestward or
northwestward if it substantially deepens, as shown by the GFS,
HWRF, and HMON models, or it could just accelerate generally
westward, as depicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. The spread
grows quite quickly by the end of the forecast period, and the GFS
and ECMWF are nearly 500 n mi apart by day 5. The NHC forecast
splits these 2 scenarios as a course of least regret, and follows
the multi-model consensus closely through the end of the period.

Despite its recent convective resurgence, there is still a fair
amount of dry air surrounding the cyclone. The environment appears
otherwise favorable for strengthening, and most of the guidance
calls for additional strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has
been adjusted a little higher, given Kiko's current convective
structure, and once again shows Kiko becoming a hurricane in a
couple of days. Whatever peak the cyclone reaches, it will likely
begin to weaken by day 4 as it encounters cooler waters, drier air,
and potentially increased shear. The official intensity forecast is
near HCCA throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 17.1N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-14 02:44

WTPZ33 KNHC 140241
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2019

...KIKO FINALLY STARTS TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 116.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-14 02:43

WTPZ23 KNHC 140240 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W

>

2019-09-14 02:42

WTPZ23 KNHC 140240
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-13 21:47

WTPN31 PHNC 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 114.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 114.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.2N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.5N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.9N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.4N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.4N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.1N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.9N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132200Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 115.4W.
13SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 956 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-13 20:46

WTPZ43 KNHC 132043 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2019

KIKO HAS BEEN BATTLING SOME ENTRAINED DRY AIR TODAY, AND CONVECTION
IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO RE-WRAP AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB SUPPORTS AN
INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 35 KT. AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF
KIKO MAY CONTINUE TO FORCE DRY AIR INTO THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION IN
THE NEAR TERM. DESPITE THIS DRY AIR, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND, KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY.
AFTER 48 HOURS, KIKO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATERS, AND AFTER 72 HOURS, WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE KIKO TO STEADILY
WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KIKO IS MOVING WESTWARD, OR 280/8 KT, TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WAS A NOTABLE
SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON, SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL MOVE WITH A LITTLE SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ALSO MADE A
SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER
AND TO THE LEFT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF
THE CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

>

2019-09-13 20:46

WTPZ43 KNHC 132043
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko has been battling some entrained dry air today, and convection
is just now beginning to re-wrap around the center of circulation.
The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB supports an
initial advisory intensity of 35 kt. An upper trough to the west of
Kiko may continue to force dry air into the cyclone's circulation in
the near term. Despite this dry air, the cyclone is expected to
remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment for the next
couple of days, which should allow for some strengthening. By late
this weekend, Kiko is expected to be near hurricane intensity.
After 48 hours, Kiko is forecast to begin to move over cooler
waters, and after 72 hours, westerly wind shear is expected to begin
to impact the cyclone. These factors should cause Kiko to steadily
weaken late in the forecast period.

Kiko is moving westward, or 280/8 kt, to the south of a broad
mid-level ridge. A general west to west-northwestward motion
should continue for the next several days. There was a notable
shift in the guidance this afternoon, suggesting that the cyclone
will move with a little slower forward motion than previously
indicated. The tightly clustered consensus guidance also made a
slight shift to the west. The official forecast is a little slower
and to the left than the previous one, but is on the right side of
the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-13 20:44

WTPZ33 KNHC 132043
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...KIKO MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 115.2W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 115.2 West. Kiko is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Kiko is expected to be near hurricane strength late this
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-13 20:44

WTPZ23 KNHC 132042 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W

>

2019-09-13 20:44

WTPZ23 KNHC 132042
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-13 15:11

WTPN31 PHNC 131600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 114.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 114.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.2N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.6N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.0N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.5N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.5N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.2N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.0N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131600Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 114.6W.
13SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 969 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-13 14:59

WTPZ43 KNHC 131457 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2019

KIKO'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED. THERE WAS
ONLY A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OVERNIGHT, AND
A NEW ONE IS IN PROGRESS. THE CIRCULATION STILL CONSISTS OF A BROKEN
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
T2.0/30 KT, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE IS NEAR 40 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT AS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

KIKO IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR WHICH IS PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SYSTEM'S CONTINUED CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES. GOING FORWARD, A LOW
SHEAR AND WARM WATER ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED ENVIRONMENTAL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST SHOWS KIKO JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS, WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

KIKO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/9 KT, TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS, AND THE TRACK MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION. AFTER DAY 3, SOME
BIFURCATION OF THE MODELS REMAIN, THOUGH THERE ARE MORE MODELS
SUPPORTING A WEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK THAN TO THE NORTH. THE ONLY
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SPEED IN DAYS 4 AND 5, AND THE FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE
MODELS THAT SUPPORT A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT LONG RANGE.

>

2019-09-13 14:59

WTPZ43 KNHC 131457
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko's convective pattern is still poorly organized. There was
only a burst of convection near the estimated center overnight, and
a new one is in progress. The circulation still consists of a broken
low- and mid-level cloud deck with widely scattered embedded
convection. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T2.0/30 kt, while the objective estimate is near 40 kt. The initial
intensity remains at 35 kt as a blend of the subjective and
objective estimates.

Kiko is surrounded by dry air which is probably contributing to
the system's continued convective struggles. Going forward, a low
shear and warm water environment with limited environmental
instability looks to allow a gradual increase in intensity. The new
NHC forecast shows Kiko just shy of hurricane strength in
about 48 hours, which is in good agreement with the trend of the
model consensus.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south of a
mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border. This
motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models
are in good agreement on this solution. After day 3, some
bifurcation of the models remain, though there are more models
supporting a west to northwest track than to the north. The only
substantial change to the previous forecast is a slightly slower
speed in Days 4 and 5, and the forecast will stay closer to the
models that support a continued west-northwest track at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 16.9N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.5N 120.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 20.2N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bann/Jackson/Otto/Blake

>

2019-09-13 14:59

WTPZ33 KNHC 131457
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2019

...KIKO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 114.4W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND KIKO
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BANN/JACKSON/OTTO/BLAKE

>

2019-09-13 14:59

WTPZ23 KNHC 131456 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 114.4W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 114.4W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 114.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 120.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 126.1W

>

2019-09-13 14:58

WTPZ23 KNHC 131456
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 114.4W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 114.4W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 114.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 120.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 126.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 114.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BANN/JACKSON/OTTO/BLAKE

>

2019-09-13 10:02

WTPN31 PHNC 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 113.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 113.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.1N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.5N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.9N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.4N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.4N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.5N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.0N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131000Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 113.7W.
13SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 984 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-13 08:55

WTPZ43 KNHC 130852 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2019

KIKO'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS STILL NOT GOTTEN ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED. THERE'S A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED
CENTER, WITH ANOTHER LARGER CLUSTER MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. FOR THE
MOST PART, HOWEVER, THE CIRCULATION CONSISTS OF A BROKEN LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.0/30 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS
ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35
KT, BUT IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT KIKO MAY NOT BE PRODUCING
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME.

THE GOES-17 AIR MASS PRODUCT SHOWS THAT KIKO IS SURROUNDED BY SOME
OF THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE ENTIRE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH
COULD BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE SYSTEM'S CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES. AND
GOING FORWARD, IT APPEARS THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD
BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING, WITH SHIPS MODEL
DIAGNOSTICS SHOWING ENVIRONMENTAL STABILITY TO BE THE BIGGEST
NEGATIVE FACTOR. THAT BEING SAID, VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 10 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS, SO STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY IF THE DRY AIR CAN BE MIXED OUT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW KIKO REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN TEMPERED A BIT
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE HFIP CORRECTED
CONSENSUS AIDS.

KIKO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 295/9 KT, TO THE SOUTH OF A

>

2019-09-13 08:54

WTPZ43 KNHC 130852
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko's convective pattern has still not gotten any better
organized. There's a small patch of convection near the estimated
center, with another larger cluster much farther south. For the
most part, however, the circulation consists of a broken low- and
mid-level cloud deck with a few embedded showers. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.0/30 kt, while objective numbers
are only slightly higher. The initial intensity is being held at 35
kt, but it's entirely possible that Kiko may not be producing
tropical-storm-force winds at this time.

The GOES-17 air mass product shows that Kiko is surrounded by some
of the driest air over the entire tropical eastern Pacific, which
could be contributing to the system's convective struggles. And
going forward, it appears that the thermodynamic environment could
be less than ideal for significant strengthening, with SHIPS model
diagnostics showing environmental stability to be the biggest
negative factor. That being said, vertical shear is expected to be
less than 10 kt for at least the next 3 days, so strengthening is
likely if the dry air can be mixed out of the circulation. The new
NHC forecast continues to show Kiko reaching hurricane strength in
about 48 hours, although the peak intensity has been tempered a bit
based on the latest guidance. The official forecast is close to a
blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected
Consensus aids.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt, to the south of a
mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border. This
motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models
are in good agreement on this solution. After day 3, there is
a bifurcation of the models, with the GFS, HMON, COAMPS-TC, and
Canadian turning Kiko northwestward or northward into a break in
the ridge, and the ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF, and the consensus aids
maintaining a west-northwestward or even westward heading on days 4
and 5. Due to this divergence, the updated forecast shows a
slightly slower motion toward the end of the forecast period, but
the track itself is very similar to the previous forecast, lying
near the northern boundary of the southern camp of models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 16.8N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 17.5N 116.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 18.4N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 19.4N 123.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 21.0N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-13 08:53

WTPZ33 KNHC 130851
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2019

...KIKO MOVING THROUGH A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND NOT STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 113.5W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-13 08:53

WTPZ23 KNHC 130851 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.5W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.5W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.5N 116.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.4N 120.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.4N 123.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

>

2019-09-13 08:52

WTPZ23 KNHC 130851
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.5W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.5W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.5N 116.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.4N 120.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.4N 123.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 113.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2019-09-13 03:03

WTPN31 PHNC 130400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 112.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 112.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.9N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.3N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.9N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.4N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.5N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.5N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.0N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130400Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 112.8W.
13SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1014 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND
140400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-13 02:42

WTPZ43 KNHC 130240 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
900 PM MDT THU SEP 12 2019

A PAIR OF RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES (AMSR-2 AT 2055 UTC AND SSMIS
AT 0020 UTC) REVEALED THAT KIKO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY RELATED TO
DIURNAL VARIATIONS IN CONVECTION, AND CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY
INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KT, SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 35 KT, AS A COMPROMISE OF THE VARIOUS METHODS.

DESPITE ITS SHORT-TERM LACK OF ORGANIZATION, KIKO WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. IT IS LOCATED WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF LOW SHEAR, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, AND WARM
SSTS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING, AND THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE RATE AT WHICH KIKO WILL
INTENSIFY. THE NHC FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY CHANGED AND
STILL CALLS FOR KIKO TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
ALSO NEAR THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY MODEL ENVELOPE, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 24 AND 72 H. BY 72 H, THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS
AND BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. WEAKENING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AROUND THAT TIME AND CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK.

KIKO'S CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE JUMPED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH, OR
PERHAPS EVEN RE-FORMED, BUT A 12-H ESTIMATE YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION
OF 300/9 KT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

>

2019-09-13 02:42

WTPZ43 KNHC 130240
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

A pair of recent microwave overpasses (AMSR-2 at 2055 UTC and SSMIS
at 0020 UTC) revealed that Kiko has not become any better organized
since this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is somewhat limited near
the center of the tropical cyclone, though this is likely related to
diurnal variations in convection, and convection will probably
increase again overnight. Subjective and objective intensity
estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, so the intensity has been
maintained at 35 kt, as a compromise of the various methods.

Despite its short-term lack of organization, Kiko will likely
strengthen during the next 2 or 3 days. It is located within an
environment consisting of low shear, sufficient moisture, and warm
SSTs. All of the intensity guidance calls for strengthening, and the
only difference between the models is the rate at which Kiko will
intensify. The NHC forecast has not been substantially changed and
still calls for Kiko to become a hurricane over the weekend. It is
also near the high side of the intensity model envelope, especially
between 24 and 72 h. By 72 h, the cyclone should reach cooler waters
and begin to encounter drier air. Weakening will likely begin
around that time and continue into mid-week.

Kiko's center appears to have jumped slightly to the north, or
perhaps even re-formed, but a 12-h estimate yields an initial motion
of 300/9 kt. The models remain in very good agreement that the
tropical storm will move generally westward to west-northwestward
throughout the forecast period, steered primarily by a mid-layer
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. The NHC track forecast
has been adjusted northward, mainly due to the farther north
initial position of Kiko, and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 17.9N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 18.4N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 19.5N 122.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-13 02:42

WTPZ33 KNHC 130239
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
900 PM MDT THU SEP 12 2019

...KIKO POISED TO STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 112.7W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. KIKO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND KIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-13 02:42

WTPZ23 KNHC 130239 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.7W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.7W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.9N 117.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.4N 119.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 122.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W

>

2019-09-13 02:41

WTPZ23 KNHC 130239
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.7W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.7W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.9N 117.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.4N 119.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 122.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 112.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-12 21:08

WTPN31 PHNC 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 111.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 111.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.3N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.6N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.1N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.6N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.5N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.3N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.0N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122200Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 112.4W.
12SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND
132200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-12 20:48

WTPZ43 KNHC 122044 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM MDT THU SEP 12 2019

A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTED A BETTER DEFINED CIRCULATION
AND WIND SPEEDS OF 30-35 KT NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.
BASED ON THIS DATA AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW
INCREASED CURVED BANDING FEATURES, WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM KIKO WITH AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE
SYSTEM CONTINUING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THERE IS A SMALL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND
CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AT LONGER RANGE, AND THUS THE FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED IN THIS DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS SOUTH OF MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING
FASTER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST HAS
BEEN SPED UP TO BECOME MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONSENSUS
SOLUTIONS.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MINIMAL SHEAR AND
SSTS BETWEEN 27-29 DEG C. THE SYSTEM IS THUS STILL ON TRACK TO
BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME CHANCE WE SEE A
MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
WITH HIGHER RAPID INTENSIFICATION PROBABILITIES NOTED IN THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE THAN 6H AGO. FOR NOW, SINCE IT IS STILL UNKNOWN HOW

>

2019-09-12 20:47

WTPZ43 KNHC 122044
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better defined circulation
and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system.
Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continuing to show
increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the
system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt.

The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is
good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the
system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of
a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific.
There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and
consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is
adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model
consensus. The model trend has been to keep the system moving
faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has
been sped up to become more in line with current consensus
solutions.

Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for
intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and
SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to
become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a
more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days,
with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the
SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how
much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit
conservative, but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some
weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over
cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake

>

2019-09-12 20:46

WTPZ23 KNHC 122043 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.2W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.2W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W

>

2019-09-12 20:45

WTPZ23 KNHC 122043
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.2W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.2W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

>

2019-09-12 15:20

WTPN31 PHNC 121600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 110.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 110.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.3N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.5N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.7N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.0N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.9N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.8N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.5N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121600Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 111.3W.
12SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (THIRTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1080 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122200Z, 130400Z, 131000Z AND 131600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-12 14:54

WTPZ43 KNHC 121452 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2019

AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE
SCATTEROMETER, AS CAN BE SEEN IN BETTER DEFINED CURVED BANDING
FEATURES. THUS ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
DEVELOPED, WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT DERIVED FROM
TAFB/SAB FIXES.

THE DEPRESSION HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND 11 KT. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER MEXICO INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. WHILE THE TRACK IS OF LESS CONFIDENCE BY THIS
TIME, WHAT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN IS THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
MORE SLOWLY. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK GENERALLY STAYS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH MINIMAL SHEAR AND SSTS BETWEEN 27-29 DEG C. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY, AND A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE WE SEE A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH RESPECTABLE RAPID

>

2019-09-12 14:54

WTPZ43 KNHC 121452
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

An overnight scatterometer pass depicted an elongated circulation
associated with this disturbance. Recent satellite imagery suggest
the system has likely become better organized since the
scatterometer, as can be seen in better defined curved banding
features. Thus all indications are that a tropical depression has
developed, with an initial intensity estimate of 30 kt derived from
TAFB/SAB fixes.

The depression has an initial motion off to the west-northwest
around 11 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next
couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest
movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into
the eastern Pacific. A bit more uncertainty develops by early next
week with regards to how the system potentially interacts with a
weakness in the ridge. While the track is of less confidence by this
time, what does appear more certain is that the system should move
more slowly. The NHC forecast track generally stays close to the
model consensus.

Tropical Depression Thirteen is expected to remain within a
favorable environment for intensification over the next several
days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. Model
guidance is in good agreement that the system should become a
tropical storm within a day, and a hurricane over the weekend.
There is some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the
cyclone during the next few days, with respectable rapid
intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance. For
now, since it is unknown how much of an inner core will develop,
the forecast will be a bit more conservative, but above the model
consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week
as the system moves over cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 15.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake

>

2019-09-12 14:53

WTPZ33 KNHC 121451
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 111.1W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.1
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
(20 KM/H) AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

>

2019-09-12 14:53

WTPZ23 KNHC 121450 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W

>

2019-09-12 14:52

WTPZ23 KNHC 121450
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE

>