Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for COSME-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-07-08 15:56

WTNT82 EGRR 081555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N 83.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.07.2019 0 34.0N 83.6W 1011 17
0000UTC 09.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 152.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.07.2019 0 17.1N 152.5W 1009 29
0000UTC 09.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 120.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.07.2019 0 20.5N 120.3W 1009 20
0000UTC 09.07.2019 12 21.1N 120.9W 1010 19
1200UTC 09.07.2019 24 21.9N 121.4W 1011 18
0000UTC 10.07.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 36.5N 71.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.07.2019 12 36.5N 71.0W 1009 33
1200UTC 09.07.2019 24 36.9N 66.6W 1006 40
0000UTC 10.07.2019 36 37.3N 62.1W 1007 37
1200UTC 10.07.2019 48 38.1N 56.3W 1004 39
0000UTC 11.07.2019 60 41.3N 47.8W 994 52
1200UTC 11.07.2019 72 47.0N 41.0W 991 43
0000UTC 12.07.2019 84 51.7N 38.0W 994 34
1200UTC 12.07.2019 96 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 28.9N 87.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 84 28.8N 88.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 12.07.2019 96 29.0N 89.5W 999 44
0000UTC 13.07.2019 108 29.2N 90.2W 987 56
1200UTC 13.07.2019 120 30.5N 90.7W 974 62
0000UTC 14.07.2019 132 32.3N 90.3W 977 42
1200UTC 14.07.2019 144 33.9N 89.1W 985 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 36.6N 33.3E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2019 96 36.6N 33.3E 998 31
0000UTC 13.07.2019 108 35.8N 31.5E 1001 29
1200UTC 13.07.2019 120 36.6N 32.9E 1001 28
0000UTC 14.07.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 11.6N 98.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.07.2019 144 11.6N 98.7W 1006 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081555

>

2019-07-08 15:56

WTNT80 EGRR 081555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N 83.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.07.2019 34.0N 83.6W WEAK
00UTC 09.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 152.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.07.2019 17.1N 152.5W WEAK
00UTC 09.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 120.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.07.2019 20.5N 120.3W WEAK
00UTC 09.07.2019 21.1N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.07.2019 21.9N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 36.5N 71.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.07.2019 36.5N 71.0W WEAK
12UTC 09.07.2019 36.9N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.07.2019 37.3N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2019 38.1N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2019 41.3N 47.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.07.2019 47.0N 41.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2019 51.7N 38.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2019 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 28.9N 87.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.07.2019 28.8N 88.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.07.2019 29.0N 89.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.07.2019 29.2N 90.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.07.2019 30.5N 90.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.07.2019 32.3N 90.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2019 33.9N 89.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 36.6N 33.3E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.07.2019 36.6N 33.3E MODERATE
00UTC 13.07.2019 35.8N 31.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2019 36.6N 32.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 11.6N 98.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.07.2019 11.6N 98.7W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081555

>

2019-07-08 15:07

WTPN32 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 120.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 120.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.0N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.6N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.1N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 120.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 766 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-08 14:37

WTPZ43 KNHC 081433
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
800 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2019

THE COMBINATION OF COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DRY AND STABLE
AIR, AND MODEST WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON COSME. THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE
THAN 12 HOURS, AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A LARGE SWIRL OF MOSTLY
COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM NO LONGER
MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY. THE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BASED ON AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER PASS. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER
WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME, PLEASE
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB
AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 20.5N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 09/0000Z 21.0N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 09/1200Z 21.6N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/0000Z 22.1N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-08 14:37

WTPZ33 KNHC 081433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
800 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2019

...COSME DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 120.7W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13
KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE REMNANT LOW
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON COSME. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB
AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-08 14:37

WTPZ23 KNHC 081432
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.7W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.7W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.0N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.6N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.1N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 120.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE COSME, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02
KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-08 09:22

WTPN32 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 119.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 119.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.8N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.3N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.8N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.3N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 119.6W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 836 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-08 08:38

WTPZ43 KNHC 080834
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
200 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2019

COSME CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER 23 TO 24 DEGREE C WATERS
AND IN A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH ABOUT 10 TO
15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION NOW CONSISTS OF SCATTERED
MID- TO HIGH- LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL, WITH A
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEARLY 200 N MI NORTHEAST THE
SYSTEM'S CENTER. A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0450 UTC SHOWED PEAK WINDS
OF 25 KT ASSOCIATED WITH COSME'S CIRCULATION. THIS INTENSITY AGREES
WITH THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND ADT AND WILL BE
THE DEPRESSION'S INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR COSME WILL NOT IMPROVE
AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS TODAY. THIS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SYSTEM'S CENTER, AND COSME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW AT SOME POINT LATER ON TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF COSME IS NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH A SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED.
THEREAFTER, THE REMNANT LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 19.8N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 20.4N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 09/0600Z 21.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/1800Z 21.5N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-07-08 08:37

WTPZ33 KNHC 080833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
200 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2019

...COSME EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 120.1W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. COSME IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-07-08 08:37

WTPZ23 KNHC 080833
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 120.1W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 120.1W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 119.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.4N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 120.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-07-08 02:46

WTPN32 PHNC 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 119.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 119.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.8N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.3N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.8N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.3N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 119.6W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 836 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-08 02:36

WTPZ43 KNHC 080231 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2019

ALL OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COSME DISSIPATED ABOUT
5 HOURS AGO, AROUND 2200 UTC, AND THE CYCLONE IS ON ITS WAY TO
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. SINCE THE CORE CONVECTION HAS NOW
DISSIPATED, IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE CYCLONE'S WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SINCE THE LAST ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWED AN AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT, MAKING COSME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND AUTOMATED DVORAK
VALUES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.

COSME IS CURRENTLY OVER COOL 24 DEGREE C WATERS, AND IT IS HEADED
FOR EVEN COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS AND AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AND DISSIPATE
IN TWO OR THREE DAYS.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT. COSME IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE LEFT, WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS JUST A TAD
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 19.1N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 19.8N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 09/0000Z 20.3N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/1200Z 20.8N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-07-08 02:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 080231
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Cosme Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019

All of the central convection associated with Cosme dissipated about
5 hours ago, around 2200 UTC, and the cyclone is on its way to
becoming a remnant low. Since the core convection has now
dissipated, it is assumed that the cyclone's winds have decreased
since the last ASCAT pass, which showed an area of 30-35 kt winds.
The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Cosme a tropical
depression. This intensity estimate is also in fair agreement with
the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and automated Dvorak
values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

Cosme is currently over cool 24 degree C waters, and it is headed
for even cooler waters during the next couple of days. These
unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a dry and stable air
mass and an increase in westerly shear should cause the system to
degenerate to a remnant low overnight or early Monday and dissipate
in two or three days.

The tropical depression is moving northwestward at 9 kt. Cosme is
expected to slow down and gradually turn toward the left, within the
low-level flow, until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is just a tad
north of the previous advisory track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 19.1N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 19.8N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 09/0000Z 20.3N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/1200Z 20.8N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0000Z 21.3N 122.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-07-08 02:34

WTPZ33 KNHC 080231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2019

...COSME WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 119.5W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A
SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. COSME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY AND DISSIPATE IN TWO OR THREE DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-08 02:34

WTPZ23 KNHC 080230
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.5W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.5W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 119.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.8N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.3N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.8N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.3N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 119.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-07 20:52

WTPN32 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 118.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 118.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.2N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.4N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.9N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.7N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 119.2W.
TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 869 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-07 20:38

WTPZ43 KNHC 072032 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2019

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH A
SMALL BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS LESS THAN 45 NMI FROM THE -30 DEG C CLOUD TOPS AND CIRRUS
HAS BEEN BLOWING OFF TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTER,
INDICATIONS THAT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS STILL MAINTAINING COSME AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED ON A FEW 30-33 KT VECTORS THAT WERE PRESENT IN AN
1813Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF COSME'S SURFACE WIND FIELD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/09 KT. COSME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINTAINING THAT MOTION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND
IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE HCCA, TVCE, AND TVDG CONSENSUS MODELS.

COSME HAS JUST PASSED OVER THE 26-DEG-C SST ISOTHERM AND WATER
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR 24C
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS, ENTRAINMENT OF
DRY STABLE AIR, AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BRING ABOUT THE DEMISE OF COSME IN 12-24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT,

>

2019-07-07 20:37

WTPZ43 KNHC 072032
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019

Deep convection has been pulsing since the previous advisory, with a
small burst of thunderstorms having recently developed in the
northwestern quadrant. Satellite data indicate that the low-level
center is less than 45 nmi from the -30 deg C cloud tops and cirrus
has been blowing off toward the southeast across the center,
indications that convective feedback is still maintaining Cosme as a
tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this
advisory based on a few 30-33 kt vectors that were present in an
1813Z ASCAT-B partial scatterometer pass over the northwestern
quadrant of Cosme's surface wind field.

The initial motion estimate is 315/09 kt. Cosme is expected to move
northwestward tonight and then turn toward the west-northwest by
Monday afternoon, maintaining that motion throughout the remainder
of the forecast period as the shallow circulation comes under the
influence of the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC
track forecast is a little north of the previous advisory track and
is similar to a blend of the HCCA, TVCE, and TVDG consensus models.

Cosme has just passed over the 26-deg-C SST isotherm and water
temperatures ahead of the cyclone are forecast to cool to near 24C
in about 24 hours. The combination of cooler waters, entrainment of
dry stable air, and increasing northwesterly wind shear is expected
to bring about the demise of Cosme in 12-24 hours. The cyclone is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression later tonight,
becoming a post-tropical system on Monday, and dissipating by 96
hours, if not sooner. The new official intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA, FSSE, and
IVCN intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.6N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.2N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0600Z 20.4N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1800Z 20.9N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z 21.7N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-07 20:36

WTPZ33 KNHC 072032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2019

...COSME FORECAST TO BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 119.0W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HOWEVER, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND COSME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT,
AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-07 20:36

WTPZ23 KNHC 072032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
2100 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 119.0W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 119.0W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.2N 119.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.9N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.4N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.9N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.7N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 119.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-07 15:56

WTNT82 EGRR 071555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 145.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.07.2019 0 17.9N 145.1W 1008 28
0000UTC 08.07.2019 12 17.7N 148.8W 1009 27
1200UTC 08.07.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM COSME ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 118.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.07.2019 0 17.5N 118.1W 1006 26
0000UTC 08.07.2019 12 18.4N 120.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 08.07.2019 24 19.3N 121.1W 1008 22
0000UTC 09.07.2019 36 19.5N 121.9W 1009 20
1200UTC 09.07.2019 48 20.1N 122.6W 1011 17
0000UTC 10.07.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 27.1N 86.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2019 120 27.8N 86.1W 1003 40
0000UTC 13.07.2019 132 28.2N 86.2W 997 40
1200UTC 13.07.2019 144 29.4N 86.0W 991 58


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071555

>

2019-07-07 15:56

WTNT80 EGRR 071555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 145.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.07.2019 17.9N 145.1W WEAK
00UTC 08.07.2019 17.7N 148.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM COSME ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 118.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.07.2019 17.5N 118.1W WEAK
00UTC 08.07.2019 18.4N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2019 19.3N 121.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.07.2019 19.5N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.07.2019 20.1N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 27.1N 86.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.07.2019 27.8N 86.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 13.07.2019 28.2N 86.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.07.2019 29.4N 86.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071555

>

2019-07-07 15:10

WTPN32 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 118.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 118.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.4N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.1N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.7N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.2N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.2N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 118.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 914 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072200Z, 080400Z, 081000Z AND 081600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-07 14:37

WTPZ43 KNHC 071433 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2019

AFTER A BRIEF CONVECTIVE HIATUS OVERNIGHT, A SMALL BURST OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER THIS MORNING, MAKING POSITIONING OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE A LITTLE DIFFICULT. HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT
35 KT DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/08 KT ARE BASED
PRIMARILY ON PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. COSME IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A 72-HR POST-TROPICAL POSITION WAS ADDED DUE
TO THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW HANGING ON TO A CLOSED SURFACE LOW A
LITTLE BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE, THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO BUT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE
NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION, AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE HCCA
AND THE SIMPLE CONSENSUS MODELS.

COSME IS MOVING OVER OVER MARGINAL 26-DEG-C SSTS, AND THE WATER
BENEATH THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR 25C IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. THE UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH THE
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL AIR,
SHOULD RESULT IN COMPLETE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER BY
MONDAY. AS A RESULT, COSME IS FORECAST TO BECOME A DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY, DEGENERATE INTO POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY,

>

2019-07-07 14:37

WTPZ43 KNHC 071433
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019

After a brief convective hiatus overnight, a small burst of
thunderstorms has redeveloped near and to the northeast of the
low-level center this morning, making positioning of the tropical
cyclone a little difficult. However, convection has been on the wane
during the past couple of hours despite relatively low vertical
wind shear conditions. The initial intensity has been maintained at
35 kt due to the increase in central convection.

The initial position and motion estimate of 305/08 kt are based
primarily on passive microwave satellite data. Cosme is forecast to
maintain a northwestward to west-northwestward motion over the next
few days due to the influence of a deep-layer ridge located to the
north of the cyclone. A 72-hr post-tropical position was added due
to the global models now hanging on to a closed surface low a
little bit longer. Otherwise, the new NHC forecast track is similar
to but north of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more
northward initial position, and lies close to a blend of the HCCA
and the simple consensus models.

Cosme is moving over over marginal 26-deg-C SSTs, and the water
beneath the cyclone is forecast to cool to near 25C in about 24
hours. The unfavorable oceanic conditions, combined with the
entrainment of drier and more stable low- and mid-level air,
should result in complete loss of deep convection near the center by
Monday. As a result, Cosme is forecast to become a depression
later today, degenerate into post-tropical remnant low on Monday,
and dissipate in the 72-96 hour time period. The new official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely
follows the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.7N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 18.4N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 19.7N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1200Z 20.2N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z 21.2N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-07 14:37

WTPZ33 KNHC 071432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2019

...COSME EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 118.4W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
COSME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY, AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-07 14:37

WTPZ23 KNHC 071432
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.4N 119.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.1N 120.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.7N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.2N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.2N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 118.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-07 09:08

WTPN32 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 117.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 117.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.6N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.4N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.1N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.7N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 118.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 960 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-07 09:07

WTPZ43 KNHC 070903 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2019

CORRECTED TO SHOW DISSIPATED AT 10/0600Z

DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL ON COSME. DEEP CONVECTION
MOSTLY DISSIPATED EARLIER TONIGHT AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE, AND
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOUT 100 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WHICH IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM TIME PERIOD. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT PARTIALLY CAPTURED COSME'S WIND FIELD
INDICATED WEAKENING HAD OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CYCLONE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND HAS BEGUN. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 35 KT AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TAFB AND
ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

COSME WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE DRY AIR WHILE MOVING OVER MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE SSTS TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE REGENERATING
CONVECTION TO EXPAND TOWARD THE CYCLONE'S CENTER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, THUS PROLONGING THE TIME COSME WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL
STORM. HOWEVER, LATER TODAY THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE 26 C
ISOTHERM AND ALSO WILL ENTER AN EVEN DRIER ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE COSME TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THEREAFTER, THE DRY
AIR AND COOLER SSTS WILL CAUSE COSME TO BECOME DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
EITHER BY TONIGHT, OR ON MONDAY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL INTENSITY

>

2019-07-07 09:07

WTPZ43 KNHC 070903 CCA
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 4...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019

Corrected to show dissipated at 10/0600Z

Dry air appears to be taking its toll on Cosme. Deep convection
mostly dissipated earlier tonight and water vapor imagery shows very
dry air impinging on the northwestern side of the cyclone, and
wrapping into the southern semicircle of the circulation. There has
been some new convection developing about 100 n mi northeast of the
center over the past few hours, which is likely associated
with the approaching diurnal convective maximum time period. A
recent scatterometer pass that partially captured Cosme's wind field
indicated weakening had occurred over the western portion of the
cyclone over the past several hours which suggests that an overall
weakening trend has begun. Therefore the initial intensity has been
lowered to 35 kt and this is in agreement with the latest TAFB and
ADT satellite intensity estimates.

Cosme will continue to battle dry air while moving over marginally
favorable SSTs today. There is a chance for the regenerating
convection to expand toward the cyclone's center over the next
several hours, thus prolonging the time Cosme will remain a tropical
storm. However, later today the cyclone will begin to cross the 26 C
isotherm and also will enter an even drier environment. This should
cause Cosme to weaken to a tropical depression. Thereafter, the dry
air and cooler SSTs will cause Cosme to become devoid of deep
convection and the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low
either by tonight, or on Monday. The latest official intensity
forecast shows a weakening trend that is a little faster than
previously forecast, and is in agreement with the latest intensity
guidance as well as model simulated satellite imagery.

Cosme continues on a generally west-northwest track, and has slowed
slightly to around 9 kt. The cyclone will be steered toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge developing to its northwest over
the next couple of days while gradually decreasing in forward
speed. The latest track guidance is close to the previous forecast
and near the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 16.9N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.4N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 19.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0600Z 19.7N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

2019-07-07 09:07

WTPZ23 KNHC 070902 CCA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019

CORRECTED OUTLOOK DATE/TIME FROM 12/0600Z TO 10/0600Z

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.0W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.0W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 117.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.4N 120.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.1N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 118.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-07-07 08:51

WTPZ43 KNHC 070845 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2019

DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL ON COSME. DEEP CONVECTION
MOSTLY DISSIPATED EARLIER TONIGHT AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE, AND
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOUT 100 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WHICH IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM TIME PERIOD. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT PARTIALLY CAPTURED COSME'S WIND FIELD
INDICATED WEAKENING HAD OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CYCLONE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND HAS BEGUN. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 35 KT AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TAFB AND
ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

COSME WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE DRY AIR WHILE MOVING OVER MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE SSTS TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE REGENERATING
CONVECTION TO EXPAND TOWARD THE CYCLONE'S CENTER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, THUS PROLONGING THE TIME COSME WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL
STORM. HOWEVER, LATER TODAY THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE 26 C
ISOTHERM AND ALSO WILL ENTER AN EVEN DRIER ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE COSME TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THEREAFTER, THE DRY
AIR AND COOLER SSTS WILL CAUSE COSME TO BECOME DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
EITHER BY TONIGHT, OR ON MONDAY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL INTENSITY

>

2019-07-07 08:50

WTPZ43 KNHC 070845
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019

Dry air appears to be taking its toll on Cosme. Deep convection
mostly dissipated earlier tonight and water vapor imagery shows very
dry air impinging on the northwestern side of the cyclone, and
wrapping into the southern semicircle of the circulation. There has
been some new convection developing about 100 n mi northeast of the
center over the past few hours, which is likely associated
with the approaching diurnal convective maximum time period. A
recent scatterometer pass that partially captured Cosme's wind field
indicated weakening had occurred over the western portion of the
cyclone over the past several hours which suggests that an overall
weakening trend has begun. Therefore the initial intensity has been
lowered to 35 kt and this is in agreement with the latest TAFB and
ADT satellite intensity estimates.

Cosme will continue to battle dry air while moving over marginally
favorable SSTs today. There is a chance for the regenerating
convection to expand toward the cyclone's center over the next
several hours, thus prolonging the time Cosme will remain a tropical
storm. However, later today the cyclone will begin to cross the 26 C
isotherm and also will enter an even drier environment. This should
cause Cosme to weaken to a tropical depression. Thereafter, the dry
air and cooler SSTs will cause Cosme to become devoid of deep
convection and the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low
either by tonight, or on Monday. The latest official intensity
forecast shows a weakening trend that is a little faster than
previously forecast, and is in agreement with the latest intensity
guidance as well as model simulated satellite imagery.

Cosme continues on a generally west-northwest track, and has slowed
slightly to around 9 kt. The cyclone will be steered toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge developing to its northwest over
the next couple of days while gradually decreasing in forward
speed. The latest track guidance is close to the previous forecast
and near the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 16.9N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.4N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 19.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0600Z 19.7N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

2019-07-07 08:50

WTPZ33 KNHC 070844
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2019

...COSME WEAKENING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 118.0W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.0 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
COSME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY, AND
A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-07-07 08:50

WTPZ23 KNHC 070844
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.0W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.0W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 117.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.4N 120.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.1N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 118.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-07-07 02:53

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 116.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 116.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.4N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.3N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.3N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.0N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.1N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.5N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 117.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 978 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-07 02:38

WTPZ43 KNHC 070233 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2019

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE TROPICAL STORM'S
ORGANIZATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO BURST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF COSME'S CIRCULATION,
HOWEVER IT REMAINS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 45 KT, WHICH IS BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT
DATA AND IS STILL ABOVE THE MOST RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

IT APPEARS THAT COSME IS UNLIKELY TO STRENGTHEN ANY MORE. DRY AIR
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND THE SPRAWLING STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD HINDER INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
26-27 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME, COSME WILL REACH COOLER SSTS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN, AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS, IF NOT SOONER. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED SEVERAL CLOUD SWIRLS ROTATING
WITHIN THE STORM'S CIRCULATION, WHICH HAS MADE TRACKING THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT THAN USUAL. USING A MEAN
CENTER OF THE VARIOUS SWIRLS YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
300/10 KT. COSME SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BY MONDAY, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A SLOWER

>

2019-07-07 02:37

WTPZ43 KNHC 070233
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019

There has been little overall change in the tropical storm's
organization since the previous advisory. Deep convection continues
to burst over the northeastern portion of Cosme's circulation,
however it remains well removed from the center. The initial wind
speed has been maintained at 45 kt, which is based on earlier ASCAT
data and is still above the most recent Dvorak intensity estimates.

It appears that Cosme is unlikely to strengthen any more. Dry air
to the northwest of the cyclone and the sprawling structure of the
system should hinder intensification while the system moves over
26-27 degree Celsius water during the next 12-18 hours. After that
time, Cosme will reach cooler SSTs and gradual weakening should
begin, and the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical within a
couple of days, if not sooner. The updated NHC intensity forecast
is in good agreement with the latest statistical guidance and the
various consensus aids.

Visible satellite imagery has revealed several cloud swirls rotating
within the storm's circulation, which has made tracking the center
of the system a little more difficult than usual. Using a mean
center of the various swirls yields an initial motion estimate of
300/10 kt. Cosme should continue to be steered west-northwestward
during the next 12-24 hours by a mid-level ridge extending westward
from northwestern Mexico. By Monday, the western portion of the
ridge is expected to weaken which should induce a slower
northwestward motion. Later in the period, the remnant low should
turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest within the
low-level trade wind flow. The guidance envelope did not change
much this cycle and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an
update of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 16.7N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.3N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 19.3N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.0N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0000Z 21.1N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 21.5N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-07-07 02:36

WTPZ33 KNHC 070231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2019

...COSME MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 117.1W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND COSME IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-07-07 02:36

WTPZ23 KNHC 070231
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 117.1W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 117.1W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 118.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 30SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.3N 119.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.3N 120.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.0N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.1N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 21.5N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 117.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-07-06 21:18

WTPN32 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 115.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 115.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.9N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.8N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.8N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.8N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.0N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.5N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 116.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1010 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-06 20:45

WTPZ43 KNHC 062040 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2019

COSME CONTINUES TO HAVE A LOPSIDED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGES,
WITH ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER.
WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CELLS NEAR THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE, THEY
HAVE NOT LASTED LONG DUE TO PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH RECENT
ASCAT DATA, AGAIN WELL ABOVE ANY DVORAK ESTIMATES.

WHILE SHEAR IS CLEARLY DECREASING NEAR THE CENTER, IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE LARGE CYCLONE TO MIX OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
DRY NEAR AND WEST OF THE CORE. IN ADDITION, COSME HAS ONLY ABOUT 36
HOURS OVER MARGINAL SSTS BEFORE REACHING COOL WATERS. THESE FACTORS
INDICATE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING THIS WEEKEND, AND A
GRADUAL WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO COOLER WATERS AND HIGHER
SHEAR. THE HWRF SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING RIGHT BEFORE COSME
CROSSES INTO THE COOL WATERS, BUT THE REST OF THE MODELS HOLDS
COSME'S INTENSITY FLAT OR DECREASING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, WHICH
GOES WITH THE WEAKER SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE BULK OF THE MODELS.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO TRACK, BUT ASCAT AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE SUGGEST IT IS MOVING A BIT SLOWER AND POLEWARD THAN
BEFORE, OR 295/12. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO. HOWEVER ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THE RIDGE FORMING
BETWEEN 120-130W, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A MOTION MORE TO THE

>

2019-07-06 20:44

WTPZ43 KNHC 062040
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019

Cosme continues to have a lopsided appearance in satellite images,
with all of its associated deep convection east of the center.
While there have been some cells near the core of the cyclone, they
have not lasted long due to plentiful dry air in the mid-levels.
The initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt in agreement with recent
ASCAT data, again well above any Dvorak estimates.

While shear is clearly decreasing near the center, it will take
some time for the large cyclone to mix out the aforementioned
dry near and west of the core. In addition, Cosme has only about 36
hours over marginal SSTs before reaching cool waters. These factors
indicate little significant strengthening this weekend, and a
gradual weakening early next week due to cooler waters and higher
shear. The HWRF shows some strengthening right before Cosme
crosses into the cool waters, but the rest of the models holds
Cosme's intensity flat or decreasing during the next few days. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, which
goes with the weaker solution provided by the bulk of the models.

The center has been difficult to track, but ASCAT and visible
satellite suggest it is moving a bit slower and poleward than
before, or 295/12. The storm is expected to be steered to the west-
northwest during the next day or so due to a subtropical ridge over
Mexico. However all of the models show a break in the ridge forming
between 120-130W, which should induce a motion more to the
northwest by Monday. Guidance has shifted a bit to the north on
this cycle, and the ECMWF solution remains a bit of an outlier to
the southwest. The new NHC forecast is adjusted slightly to the
northeast of the previous one, but is southwest of the model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.2N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.9N 117.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 17.8N 119.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.8N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.8N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 21.0N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-07-06 20:44

WTPZ33 KNHC 062039
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2019

...COSME MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 116.3W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW DECREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-07-06 20:44

WTPZ23 KNHC 062039
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.3W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 45SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.3W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.9N 117.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.8N 119.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.8N 120.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.8N 121.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-07-06 14:57

WTPN32 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 115.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 115.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.3N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.0N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.9N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.8N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.2N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.0N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 115.9W.
TROPICAL STORM 03E (COSME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1044 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02E (BARBARA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-06 14:07

WTPZ43 KNHC 061403 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2019

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY CONSOLIDATED INTO A TROPICAL STORM.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER IS PRESENT ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN
GETTING CLOSER TO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45
KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA, WHICH IS
HIGHER THAN WHAT DVORAK-ONLY ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST.

SHEAR NEAR COSME HAS BEEN DECREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS SUGGESTING THAT EASTERLY FLOW IS
OVERSPREADING THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE LARGE CYCLONE TO OVERCOME THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NEAR AND
WEST OF THE CORE. IN ADDITION, COSME HAS ONLY ABOUT 36 HOURS OVER
LUKEWARM SSTS BEFORE REACHING COOL WATERS. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING THIS WEEKEND, AND A GRADUAL
WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SUB-26C WATERS AND HIGHER SHEAR.
ONLY THE HWRF SHOWS ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED, WITH THE
REST OF THE MODELS HOLDING COSME'S INTENSITY FLAT OR DECREASING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH
THE LATTER SOLUTION, NOT TOO FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12. COSME SHOULD
BE STEERED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE FORMING BETWEEN 120-130W, WHICH WILL LIKELY
INDUCE A MOTION MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY. THERE ISN'T A LOT

>

2019-07-06 14:07

WTPZ43 KNHC 061403
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019

The broad area of low pressure that we have been monitoring for
several days has finally consolidated into a tropical storm.
Satellite images show that a well-defined center is present on the
western side of an area of deep convection which has been
getting closer to the center. The initial wind speed is set to 45
kt in agreement with the overnight scatterometer data, which is
higher than what Dvorak-only estimates would suggest.

Shear near Cosme has been decreasing during the overnight hours,
with cirrus cloud motions suggesting that easterly flow is
overspreading the circulation. However, it will take some time for
the large cyclone to overcome the very dry mid-level air near and
west of the core. In addition, Cosme has only about 36 hours over
lukewarm SSTs before reaching cool waters. These factors suggest
little significant strengthening this weekend, and a gradual
weakening early next week due to sub-26C waters and higher shear.
Only the HWRF shows any significant increase in wind speed, with the
rest of the models holding Cosme's intensity flat or decreasing
during the next few days. The official intensity forecast goes with
the latter solution, not too far from the model consensus.

An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 290/12. Cosme should
be steered to the west-northwest for the next day or so due to a
subtropical ridge over Mexico. However all of the models show a
break in the ridge forming between 120-130W, which will likely
induce a motion more to the northwest by Monday. There isn't a lot
of agreement, however, on exactly when that turns occurs, with the
GFS-based guidance and UKMET turning the system the system earlier
than the ECMWF and most of its ensemble. I don't have a lot of
reason to favor either solution at this time, so the forecast will
stay close to the eastern Pacific track model consensus TVCE. Based
on SSTs and model-simulated satellite data, Cosme should become a
non-convective remnant low in about 3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 15.6N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.3N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 17.9N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 18.8N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z 21.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-07-06 14:05

WTPZ23 KNHC 061400
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.7W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 0SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.7W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 117.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 119.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 120.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N 121.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 115.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-07-06 14:04

WTPZ33 KNHC 061400
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2019

...COSME FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 115.7W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.7
WEST. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22
KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
WITH SOME WEAKENING ANTICIPATED BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>