Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BARBARA-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2019-07-06 15:02

WTPN31 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 138.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 138.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.6N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.4N 144.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.0N 148.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0N 152.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 139.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 948 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (COSME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-06 14:39

WTPZ42 KNHC 061434
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 AM HST SAT JUL 06 2019

THE COMBINATION OF COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON BARBARA. THE SYSTEM HAS
DEGENERATED SIGNIFICANTLY, AND IT NOW CONSISTS OF A VIGOROUS SWIRL
OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. CONSEQUENTLY, IT NO
LONGER CLASSIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY. THE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 18.7N 139.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 07/0000Z 18.6N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1200Z 18.4N 144.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0000Z 18.0N 148.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z 18.0N 152.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-06 14:38

WTPZ32 KNHC 061433 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 AM HST SAT JUL 06 2019

...ONCE POWERFUL HURRICANE BARBARA DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 139.2W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1910 MI...3075 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 139.2 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28
KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND

>

2019-07-06 14:37

WTPZ32 KNHC 061433
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
500 AM HST Sat Jul 06 2019

...ONCE POWERFUL HURRICANE BARBARA DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 139.2W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1910 MI...3075 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Barbara was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 139.2 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to dissipate in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on this system
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-06 14:37

WTPZ22 KNHC 061432
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 139.2W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 139.2W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 138.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.6N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.4N 144.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.0N 148.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.0N 152.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 139.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BARBARA PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER
FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-06 09:10

WTPN31 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 18.6N 136.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 136.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.6N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.5N 143.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.3N 146.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.0N 150.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 137.8W.
TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1039 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-06 08:41

WTPZ42 KNHC 060837
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 05 2019

BARBARA CURRENTLY CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM APPROACHES. HOWEVER,
IF THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN, THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED
POST-TROPICAL ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT
IS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA.

A COMBINATION OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STRONG SHEAR, AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE BARBARA TO STEADILY WEAKEN. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING
FOR WINDS TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL-STORM FORCE AFTER 12 H, AND FOR THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AFTER 48 H.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/13. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE WILL KEEP IT MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL BARBARA DISSIPATES.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY, SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED SOUTHWARD IN
RESPONSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 18.6N 137.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.6N 139.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 07/0600Z 18.5N 143.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 18.3N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z 18.0N 150.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-06 08:40

WTPZ32 KNHC 060836
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 05 2019

...BARBARA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 137.5W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 137.5 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BARBARA WILL LIKELY BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-06 08:39

WTPZ22 KNHC 060835
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0900 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 137.5W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 137.5W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 136.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.6N 139.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.5N 143.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.3N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 150.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 137.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-06 02:52

WTPN31 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 18.6N 135.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 135.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.7N 138.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.6N 141.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.6N 144.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.4N 148.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 136.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1112 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-06 02:38

WTPZ42 KNHC 060233
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 PM HST FRI JUL 05 2019

BARBARA IS FADING FAST. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION SINCE THIS MORNING AND UNLESS IT HAS AN UNEXPECTED
RESURGENCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, IT
WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT. BARBARA'S
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT, ASSUMING THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED A
LITTLE IN 6 HOURS SINCE A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES SHOWED 45-50 KT PEAK
WINDS. HIGH SHEAR, LOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND COOL SSTS SHOULD
PREVENT BARBARA FROM RECOVERING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO A
STEADY SPIN DOWN IS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO OPEN
INTO A TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT THREE DAYS, IF NOT SOONER.

BARBARA IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/12
KT. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL KEEP IT
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL BARBARA DISSIPATES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 18.6N 136.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 18.7N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 07/0000Z 18.6N 141.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 18.6N 144.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 18.4N 148.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-07-06 02:36

WTPZ32 KNHC 060231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 PM HST FRI JUL 05 2019

...BARBARA WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 136.2W
ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND BARBARA WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-07-06 02:36

WTPZ22 KNHC 060231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 136.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 60SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 136.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 135.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.7N 138.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.6N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.6N 144.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.4N 148.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 136.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-07-05 21:13

WTPN31 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 022
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 134.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 134.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.9N 136.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.0N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.8N 142.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.8N 146.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 135.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1186 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-05 20:53

WTPZ42 KNHC 052047
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 AM HST FRI JUL 05 2019

INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HAS STRIPPED AWAY THE DEEP
CONVECTION FROM THE SYSTEM. A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT
THE CYCLONE'S INTENSITY IS AROUND 50 KT. ALTHOUGH BARBARA WILL NOT
BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING DECREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL LIKELY CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING, AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST CORRECTED MODEL
CONSENSUS, HCCA.

BARBARA IS TURNING TOWARD THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/11 KT. THERE IS BASICALLY NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
WITH SOME ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS, AGAIN, VERY
SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 18.6N 134.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 18.9N 136.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 06/1800Z 19.0N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 18.8N 142.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 18.8N 146.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-07-05 20:52

WTPZ32 KNHC 052046
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 AM HST FRI JUL 05 2019

...BARBARA LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 134.7W
ABOUT 1625 MI...2620 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 134.7 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-07-05 20:50

WTPZ22 KNHC 052046
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 134.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 134.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 134.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.9N 136.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 142.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.8N 146.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 134.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-07-05 14:47

WTPN31 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 133.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 133.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.8N 135.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.2N 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.3N 141.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.1N 144.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.0N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 133.9W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1229 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-05 14:37

WTPZ42 KNHC 051432
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 AM HST FRI JUL 05 2019

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS ARE CAUSING BARBARA TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER, IS DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. USING A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY AND T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESULTS IN AN ADVISORY
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FURTHER, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY AND BARBARA SHOULD
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS OR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR OR ABOVE THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF BARBARA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT, THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 18.4N 133.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 18.8N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 19.2N 138.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 19.3N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.1N 144.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-07-05 14:36

WTPZ32 KNHC 051431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 AM HST FRI JUL 05 2019

...BARBARA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 133.6W
ABOUT 1560 MI...2510 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 133.6 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-07-05 14:36

WTPZ22 KNHC 051431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 133.6W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 133.6W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 133.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N 135.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 138.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 141.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.1N 144.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 133.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-07-05 08:51

WTPN31 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 132.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 132.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.4N 134.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.9N 136.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.0N 139.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.9N 142.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.5N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 132.8W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1225 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-05 08:43

WTPZ42 KNHC 050838
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 PM HST THU JUL 04 2019

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BARBARA
IS SHEARING APART, WITH THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE DISINTEGRATING AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION. RECENT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES SHOWED SEVERAL 65-KT
WIND VECTORS NEAR THE CENTER, AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA
AND OTHER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 70 KT. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING, AND BARBARA IS
FORECAST TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY MONDAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/10. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND WESTWARD BY SATURDAY AS EASTERLY
FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES
THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THUS, THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 17.7N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.4N 134.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 18.9N 136.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 19.0N 139.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 18.9N 142.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-05 08:42

WTPZ32 KNHC 050837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 PM HST THU JUL 04 2019

...BARBARA NOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 132.6W
ABOUT 1475 MI...2375 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1510 MI...2430 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 132.6 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND
BARBARA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY AND
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB (28.94 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-05 08:40

WTPZ22 KNHC 050836
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 132.6W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 132.6W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 132.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.4N 134.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.9N 136.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 139.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.9N 142.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 132.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-05 03:56

WTNT82 EGRR 050355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 106.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.07.2019 0 11.9N 106.5W 1008 20
1200UTC 05.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 131.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.07.2019 0 17.1N 131.4W 966 71
1200UTC 05.07.2019 12 18.1N 133.2W 983 56
0000UTC 06.07.2019 24 18.6N 135.4W 996 44
1200UTC 06.07.2019 36 18.6N 138.1W 1003 35
0000UTC 07.07.2019 48 18.6N 140.9W 1006 33
1200UTC 07.07.2019 60 18.8N 144.4W 1008 29
0000UTC 08.07.2019 72 18.6N 148.6W 1010 28
1200UTC 08.07.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 35.6N 70.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.07.2019 120 35.8N 68.0W 1008 37
1200UTC 10.07.2019 132 36.4N 61.9W 1007 41
0000UTC 11.07.2019 144 38.6N 53.4W 1003 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.7N 95.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.07.2019 132 14.7N 95.9W 1007 36
0000UTC 11.07.2019 144 15.5N 98.3W 1006 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050355

>

2019-07-05 03:55

WTNT80 EGRR 050355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 106.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.07.2019 11.9N 106.5W WEAK
12UTC 05.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 131.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.07.2019 17.1N 131.4W STRONG
12UTC 05.07.2019 18.1N 133.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 06.07.2019 18.6N 135.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 06.07.2019 18.6N 138.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.07.2019 18.6N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2019 18.8N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2019 18.6N 148.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 35.6N 70.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.07.2019 35.8N 68.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.07.2019 36.4N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2019 38.6N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.7N 95.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.07.2019 14.7N 95.9W WEAK
00UTC 11.07.2019 15.5N 98.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050355

>

2019-07-05 02:53

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 131.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 131.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1N 133.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.8N 135.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.1N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.2N 141.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.7N 147.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 131.8W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1370 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAWAII, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-05 02:36

WTPZ42 KNHC 050231 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 PM HST THU JUL 04 2019

BARBARA STILL APPEARS TO BE A HURRICANE ON THE DOWNSWING. THE
CYCLONE HAD A SURPRISING LAST GASP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RING OF COLD CLOUD-TOPS SURROUNDING THE WELL-DEFINED EYE IN INFRARED
IMAGERY, AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ACTUALLY INCREASED
SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. HOWEVER, SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS REVEALED THAT ALL OF THE ACTIVE DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE,
LIKELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
FURTHERMORE, THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED
SINCE AROUND 0000 UTC. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF BARBARA IS 85 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY, RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME IMMINENTLY DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR, COLD WATERS, AND A RELATIVELY DRY
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS, IVCN, AND BARBARA IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW ON SATURDAY.

NO CHANGES OF NOTE WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST EITHER. BARBARA'S
ESTIMATED MOTION IS 310/10 KT, BUT A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN WESTWARD AS
IT WEAKENS, STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ON THAT GENERAL HEADING UNTIL IT DISSIPATES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SIMPLE TRACK CONSENSUS TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

2019-07-05 02:36

WTPZ32 KNHC 050231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 PM HST THU JUL 04 2019

...BARBARA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 131.7W
ABOUT 1465 MI...2355 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1540 MI...2480 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 131.7 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND BARBARA IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
(280 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB (28.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-07-05 02:35

WTPZ42 KNHC 050231
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
500 PM HST Thu Jul 04 2019

Barbara still appears to be a hurricane on the downswing. The
cyclone had a surprising last gasp earlier this afternoon with a
ring of cold cloud-tops surrounding the well-defined eye in infrared
imagery, and satellite intensity estimates actually increased
slightly since the last advisory. However, several microwave passes
during the past 6 hours revealed that all of the active deep
convection is limited to the northern semicircle of the hurricane,
likely due to the continued effects of southwesterly shear.
Furthermore, the eye of the hurricane has become poorly defined
since around 0000 UTC. Although the intensity of Barbara is 85 kt
for this advisory, rapid weakening should resume imminently due to
the aforementioned shear, cold waters, and a relatively dry
surrounding environment. No changes of significance were made to the
NHC intensity forecast, which remains close to the intensity
consensus, IVCN, and Barbara is still forecast to become a remnant
low on Saturday.

No changes of note were made to the track forecast either. Barbara's
estimated motion is 310/10 kt, but a turn toward the west-northwest
is anticipated on Friday. The cyclone should then turn westward as
it weakens, steered by low-level easterlies, and will likely remain
on that general heading until it dissipates east of the Hawaiian
Islands early next week. The track guidance is in good agreement and
the NHC forecast closely follows the simple track consensus TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 17.3N 131.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 18.1N 133.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 18.8N 135.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 19.1N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.2N 141.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 08/0000Z 18.7N 147.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-07-05 02:35

WTPZ22 KNHC 050230 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 131.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 131.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 131.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.1N 133.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N 135.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.1N 138.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.2N 141.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.7N 147.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

>

2019-07-05 02:34

WTPZ22 KNHC 050230
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 131.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 131.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 131.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.1N 133.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N 135.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.1N 138.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.2N 141.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.7N 147.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 131.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-07-04 21:48

WTPN31 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 130.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 130.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.6N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.6N 134.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.1N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.2N 139.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.9N 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.9N 152.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 131.0W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1215 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-04 20:46

WTPZ42 KNHC 042040 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 AM HST THU JUL 04 2019

THE EYE OF BARBARA HAS GRADUALLY BEEN FILLING IN DURING THE DAY,
WITH EYEWALL CONVECTION ERODING SOMEWHAT ON THE SOUTH SIDE. IN
ADDITION, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED TO THE NORTH -- A
SIGN THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE CIRCULATION. A BLEND
OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, GIVES 85 KT AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. BARBARA
SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO COOL WATERS,
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY 24 HOURS AND
DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST BEFORE IT
ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

BARBARA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD, OR 310/10 KT. THIS GENERAL
PATH IS FORECAST UNTIL TOMORROW WHEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE, CAUSING A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. AS BARBARA WEAKENS, IT SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE
ON SATURDAY, STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OVERALL MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. ALL OF THE MODELS
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, ALTHOUGH THE
REMNANTS COULD MOVE ACROSS THAT AREA IN 4-5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 130.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

>

2019-07-04 20:45

WTPZ42 KNHC 042040
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
1100 AM HST Thu Jul 04 2019

The eye of Barbara has gradually been filling in during the day,
with eyewall convection eroding somewhat on the south side. In
addition, the cloud pattern has become elongated to the north -- a
sign that southwesterly shear is affecting the circulation. A blend
of the satellite intensity estimates, with more weight on the
subjective estimates, gives 85 kt as the initial wind speed. Barbara
should rapidly weaken over the next day or so due to cool waters,
increasing southwesterly shear, and dry air entrainment. The cyclone
is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm by 24 hours and
degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone near or just before it
enters the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC prediction is similar
to the previous one, close to the model consensus.

Barbara continues moving northwestward, or 310/10 kt. This general
path is forecast until tomorrow when a mid-level ridge builds to
north of the cyclone, causing a slightly faster west-northwestward
motion. As Barbara weakens, it should turn westward and accelerate
on Saturday, steered by the low-level flow. The overall model
guidance envelope is virtually unchanged from the previous one, and
no significant changes were made to the forecast. All of the models
dissipate the cyclone east of the Hawaiian Islands, although the
remnants could move across that area in 4-5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 130.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.6N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 19.1N 136.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 19.2N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 07/1800Z 18.9N 145.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z 18.9N 152.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-07-04 20:42

WTPZ32 KNHC 042038
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 AM HST THU JUL 04 2019

...COOL WATERS AND SHEAR TAKING A TOLL ON BARBARA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 130.8W
ABOUT 1420 MI...2290 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1605 MI...2585 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.8 WEST. BARBARA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND BARBARA IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY AND BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
(280 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB (28.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-07-04 20:42

WTPZ22 KNHC 042037 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 130.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 130.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 130.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 134.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.1N 136.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.2N 139.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.9N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.9N 152.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-07-04 20:41

WTPZ22 KNHC 042037
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 130.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 130.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 130.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 134.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.1N 136.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.2N 139.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.9N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.9N 152.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 130.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-07-04 14:58

WTPN31 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 129.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 129.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.0N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.9N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.2N 137.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.0N 143.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.8N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 130.1W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1226 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 39 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-04 14:40

WTPZ42 KNHC 041436 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 AM HST THU JUL 04 2019

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BARBARA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL IS BECOMING LESS INTENSE, WITH
EYE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST
SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGESTS 100 KT AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.
THE HURRICANE IS ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
RAPID WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BARBARA IS FORECAST
TO TRAVERSE SUB-26C WATERS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR, WHICH WOULD HELP TO MIX IN DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS, THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
BY 36 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND
THE TIME IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE NEW NHC
PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BIT LOWER THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

BARBARA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD RECENTLY, AND IS MOVING ABOUT
310/10 KT. THIS GENERAL PATH IS FORECAST UNTIL TOMORROW WHEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE, CAUSING A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AS BARBARA WEAKENS, IT SHOULD
TURN WESTWARD ON SATURDAY, STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALL OF
THE MODEL DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
ALTHOUGH THE REMNANTS COULD MOVE ACROSS THAT AREA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 16.0N 130.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.0N 131.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

>

2019-07-04 14:40

WTPZ42 KNHC 041436
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
500 AM HST Thu Jul 04 2019

Satellite images indicate that Barbara continues to gradually
weaken. Convection in the eyewall is becoming less intense, with
eye temperatures slowly falling. A consensus of the latest
satellite estimates suggests 100 kt as the initial wind speed.
The hurricane is entering an environment that will likely promote
rapid weakening during the next couple of days. Barbara is forecast
to traverse sub-26C waters and encounter increasing southwesterly
shear, which would help to mix in drier air from the mid-levels of
the atmosphere. Thus, the cyclone should weaken to a tropical storm
by 36 hours and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone around
the time it enters the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC
prediction is similar to the previous one and is a bit lower than
the model consensus.

Barbara has turned northwestward recently, and is moving about
310/10 kt. This general path is forecast until tomorrow when a
mid-level ridge builds to north of the cyclone, causing a
west-northwestward motion. As Barbara weakens, it should
turn westward on Saturday, steered by the low-level flow. Model
guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and no
significant changes were required to the previous forecast. All of
the model dissipate the cyclone east of the Hawaiian Islands,
although the remnants could move across that area in about 5 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 16.0N 130.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.0N 131.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 18.1N 133.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 18.9N 135.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 19.2N 137.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 19.0N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 18.8N 150.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-07-04 14:36

WTPZ32 KNHC 041432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 AM HST THU JUL 04 2019

...BARBARA GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 130.0W
ABOUT 1390 MI...2240 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1670 MI...2685 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST. BARBARA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST,
AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY
AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB (28.35 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-07-04 14:35

WTPZ22 KNHC 041432 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 130.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 130.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 129.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 131.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.1N 133.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 135.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 137.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 30SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-07-04 14:35

WTPZ22 KNHC 041432
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 130.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 130.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 129.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 131.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.1N 133.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 135.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 137.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 30SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N 150.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 130.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-07-04 09:02

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 15.1N 128.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 128.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.6N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.6N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.1N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.1N 142.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.7N 148.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.5N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 129.3W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1234 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 41 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-04 08:43

WTPZ42 KNHC 040838 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 PM HST WED JUL 03 2019

BARBARA IS ON A WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS STILL
IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND
RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN, THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY WARMING IN THE EYEWALL. ACCORDINGLY, THE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN FALLING, AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE HURRICANE IS STILL IN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS, LOW WIND SHEAR, AND A FAIRLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BARBARA IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE 26 DEGREE C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS, AND IT WILL
ALSO BE MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SUGGEST THAT RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY. BARBARA
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 36 HOURS AND
DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 3. THE POST-TROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND THE TIME THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN, WHEN BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 25 DEGREE
C WATERS AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ABOUT 30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODELS.

BARBARA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KT STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MAKE A SLIGHT

>

2019-07-04 08:42

WTPZ42 KNHC 040838
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 03 2019

Barbara is on a weakening trend. Although the hurricane is still
impressive in satellite images with a well-defined eye and
relatively symmetric convective pattern, the cloud tops have been
gradually warming in the eyewall. Accordingly, the subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have been falling, and the
initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt. This intensity estimate is
in best agreement with the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane is still in relatively favorable conditions of
marginally warm waters, low wind shear, and a fairly moist
environment. However, these conditions are expected to change
significantly during the next couple of days. Barbara is forecast
to cross the 26 degree C isotherm in about 12 hours, and it will
also be moving into a progressively drier airmass during the next
day or two. These conditions combined with a notable increase in
southwesterly shear suggest that rapid weakening is likely. Barbara
is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by 36 hours and
degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by day 3. The post-tropical
transition will likely occur around the time the cyclone enters the
Central Pacific basin, when Barbara is forecast to be over 25 degree
C waters and in an environment of about 30 kt of southwesterly
shear. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the various intensity
consensus models.

Barbara is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt steered by a mid-level
ridge to its northeast. The hurricane is forecast to make a slight
turn to the northwest soon, and it should continue in that general
direction during the next day or so while it moves along the
southwestern periphery of the ridge. After that time, low- to
mid-level ridging is expected to build to the north of the
weakening cyclone and that should cause it to move westward at a
faster pace. The remnants of Barbara are expected to approach the
Hawaiian Islands in about 5 days. The track models are tightly
clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC
track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 15.4N 129.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 16.3N 130.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 18.6N 134.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 19.1N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 19.1N 142.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 08/0600Z 18.7N 148.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 18.5N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-07-04 08:41

WTPZ32 KNHC 040837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 PM HST WED JUL 03 2019

...BARBARA WEAKENING BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 129.2W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1730 MI...2780 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST,
AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY
AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB (28.23 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-04 08:41

WTPZ22 KNHC 040837 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 129.2W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 300SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 129.2W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 128.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.3N 130.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 134.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.1N 136.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 142.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-07-04 08:41

WTPZ22 KNHC 040837
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 129.2W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 300SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 129.2W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 128.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.3N 130.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 134.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.1N 136.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 142.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.7N 148.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 18.5N 155.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 129.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-04 03:18

WTPN31 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 128.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 128.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.8N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.0N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.2N 133.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.0N 135.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.1N 140.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.8N 146.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.5N 153.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 128.6W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1238 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND
050400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-04 02:37

WTPZ42 KNHC 040232 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 PM HST WED JUL 03 2019

CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE STILL WELL-DEFINED EYE OF BARBARA HAVE WARMED
A LITTLE MORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. RECENT SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 102 TO 127 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF BARBARA HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 115 KT, IN THE MIDDLE OF THE VARIOUS FIXES.

VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. BARBARA
WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CROSS THE 26 DEGREE C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE SHARPLY IN
ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH A DRIER SURROUNDING
ENVIRONMENT, WILL LIKELY CAUSE BARBARA TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION
AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS, POSSIBLY JUST AFTER
REACHING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, WITH THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY BEING THE EXACT RATE AT WHICH BARBARA WILL WEAKEN, AND
THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

BARBARA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300/10 KT.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS PRACTICALLY ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
GUIDANCE. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MEXICO OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR

>

2019-07-04 02:36

WTPZ42 KNHC 040232
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
500 PM HST Wed Jul 03 2019

Cloud tops around the still well-defined eye of Barbara have warmed
a little more this afternoon/evening, suggesting that the hurricane
continues to weaken. Recent satellite-based intensity estimates
range from 102 to 127 kt, and the initial intensity of Barbara has
been lowered to 115 kt, in the middle of the various fixes.

Virtually no change has been made to the intensity forecast. Barbara
will be moving over cooler SSTs for the next several days, and the
hurricane should cross the 26 degree C isotherm in about 24 hours.
The vertical wind shear is also forecast to increase sharply in
about 36 to 48 hours, which should hasten the weakening of the
tropical cyclone. These factors, along with a drier surrounding
environment, will likely cause Barbara to lose its deep convection
and become post-tropical in about 3 days, possibly just after
reaching the central Pacific basin. The intensity guidance is in
extremely good agreement on this general scenario, with the only
uncertainty being the exact rate at which Barbara will weaken, and
the NHC forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance.

Barbara continues to move steadily west-northwestward or 300/10 kt.
The new NHC forecast is practically on top of the previous one, and
there have been no changes of significance in the track forecast
guidance. The hurricane is currently moving along the southwestern
edge of a mid-level subtropical ridge that extends from Mexico over
much of the eastern North Pacific, and this should continue for
another day or two. As it weakens, Barbara will be increasingly
steered by low-level easterly trade wind flow, and this should
causes the cyclone to turn toward the west by the weekend. The NHC
forecast continues to lie near the middle of the guidance envelope
and very near TVCN and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 14.9N 128.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 17.0N 131.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 18.2N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 19.0N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 19.1N 140.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 18.8N 146.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 09/0000Z 18.5N 153.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-07-04 02:36

WTPZ32 KNHC 040231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 PM HST WED JUL 03 2019

...BARBARA WEAKENING AND HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 128.5W
ABOUT 1335 MI...2145 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1785 MI...2870 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST, AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB (27.97 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-07-04 02:36

WTPZ22 KNHC 040231 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0300 UTC THU JUL 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 128.5W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 128.5W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 128.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 131.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.2N 133.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.0N 135.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 140.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-07-04 02:35

WTPZ22 KNHC 040231
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0300 UTC THU JUL 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 128.5W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 128.5W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 128.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 131.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.2N 133.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.0N 135.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 140.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 18.8N 146.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 153.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 128.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-07-03 21:36

WTPN31 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 127.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 127.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.1N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.5N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.5N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.0N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.0N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.5N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 127.7W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1243 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 51 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND
042200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-03 20:41

WTPZ42 KNHC 032037 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 AM HST WED JUL 03 2019

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS IT HAS BEEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS, AND THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE WARMED. DVORAK
NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL, AND BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 120 KT IN THIS ADVISORY. BARBARA'S CIRCULATION
IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD PREVAIL. FASTER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED ONCE THE SHEAR
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. IN FACT, BARBARA COULD LOSE
ITS DEEP CONVECTION, AND THUS BECOME POST-TROPICAL, AROUND THE TIME
IT IS FORECAST TO CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THIS
IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT.
THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, AND THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD STEER BARBARA ON A NORTHWEST
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, A NEW RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE, RESULTING IN A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST. IN ADDITION, SINCE BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
WEAK AND SHALLOW CYCLONE, IT WILL LIKELY BECOME STEERED WESTWARD BY
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS BY SATURDAY. THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IT CONTINUES TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

2019-07-03 20:41

WTPZ42 KNHC 032037
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 03 2019

Satellite images indicate that Barbara has continued to gradually
weaken. The eye is not as distinct as it has been during the past 24
hours, and the cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed. Dvorak
numbers have continued to fall, and based on an average of the
latest objective and subjective numbers, the initial intensity has
been adjusted down to 120 kt in this advisory. Barbara's circulation
is beginning to move toward cooler waters so a gradual weakening
trend should prevail. Faster weakening is anticipated once the shear
increases significantly in about 2 days. In fact, Barbara could lose
its deep convection, and thus become post-tropical, around the time
it is forecast to cross 140W into the central Pacific basin. This
is indicated by most of the intensity guidance.

Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt.
The hurricane has reached the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge, and this flow pattern should steer Barbara on a northwest
track during the next 2 days or so. After that time, a new ridge is
forecast to build north of the cyclone, resulting in a turn back
toward the west. In addition, since Barbara is forecast to become a
weak and shallow cyclone, it will likely become steered westward by
the low-level trade winds by Saturday. The NHC forecast is not
different from the previous one, and it continues to be in the
middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model
consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 14.3N 127.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 15.1N 128.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 16.3N 130.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 17.5N 132.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 134.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 19.0N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 19.0N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/1800Z 18.5N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-03 20:41

WTPZ32 KNHC 032036
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 AM HST WED JUL 03 2019

...BARBARA ON A WEAKENING TREND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 127.5W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1860 MI...2990 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST. BARBARA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND
BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB (27.79 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-03 20:41

WTPZ22 KNHC 032035 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
2100 UTC WED JUL 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 127.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 127.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 127.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.1N 128.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.3N 130.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.5N 132.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 139.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-07-03 20:40

WTPZ22 KNHC 032035
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
2100 UTC WED JUL 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 127.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 127.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 127.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.1N 128.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.3N 130.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.5N 132.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 139.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 145.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.5N 151.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 127.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-03 15:58

WTNT82 EGRR 031557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.07.2019

HURRICANE BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 126.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.07.2019 0 13.6N 126.3W 972 62
0000UTC 04.07.2019 12 14.2N 128.0W 977 56
1200UTC 04.07.2019 24 15.4N 129.4W 975 60
0000UTC 05.07.2019 36 16.6N 130.9W 981 57
1200UTC 05.07.2019 48 17.7N 132.5W 994 44
0000UTC 06.07.2019 60 18.1N 134.8W 1001 35
1200UTC 06.07.2019 72 18.0N 137.6W 1006 30
0000UTC 07.07.2019 84 17.8N 140.2W 1008 29
1200UTC 07.07.2019 96 17.3N 143.7W 1009 28
0000UTC 08.07.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.7N 118.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.07.2019 84 16.3N 120.0W 1006 28
1200UTC 07.07.2019 96 17.3N 123.0W 1007 26
0000UTC 08.07.2019 108 17.9N 125.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 08.07.2019 120 19.2N 126.8W 1009 24
0000UTC 09.07.2019 132 19.9N 128.2W 1010 25
1200UTC 09.07.2019 144 20.8N 129.8W 1011 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031557

>

2019-07-03 15:58

WTNT80 EGRR 031557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.07.2019

HURRICANE BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 126.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.07.2019 13.6N 126.3W STRONG
00UTC 04.07.2019 14.2N 128.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.07.2019 15.4N 129.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2019 16.6N 130.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.07.2019 17.7N 132.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 06.07.2019 18.1N 134.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.07.2019 18.0N 137.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.07.2019 17.8N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2019 17.3N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.7N 118.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.07.2019 16.3N 120.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 07.07.2019 17.3N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2019 17.9N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2019 19.2N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.07.2019 19.9N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.07.2019 20.8N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031557

>

2019-07-03 15:51

WTPN31 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 126.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 126.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.6N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.7N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.9N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.0N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.0N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.0N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.5N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 126.8W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1244 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND
041600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-03 14:48

WTPZ42 KNHC 031443 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 AM HST WED JUL 03 2019

IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAKENING PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THE RING
OF INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS WARMED UP AND
CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL. BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 125 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.
BARBARA'S CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS SO A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. FASTER WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED ONCE THE SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ABOUT 2
DAYS. IN FACT, BARBARA COULD LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION, AND THUS
BECOME POST TROPICAL, AROUND THE TIME IT IS FORECAST TO CROSS 140W
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THIS IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9
KT. THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT HAS BEEN STEERING THE CYCLONE, AND THIS FLOW
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE BARBARA TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, A NEW RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO RE-BUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE, RESULTING IN A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK. IN ADDITION, SINCE BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
WEAK SHALLOW CYCLONE, IT WILL LIKELY BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS. THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE, AND IT CONTINUES TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

>

2019-07-03 14:47

WTPZ42 KNHC 031443
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
500 AM HST Wed Jul 03 2019

It appears that the weakening process has already begun. The ring
of intense convection surrounding the eye has warmed up and
consequently, Dvorak numbers have continued to fall. Based on an
average of the latest objective and subjective numbers, the initial
intensity has been adjusted down to 125 kt in this advisory.
Barbara's circulation is beginning to move toward cooler waters so a
gradual weakening trend should prevail, although some minor
fluctuations in intensity are possible today. Faster weakening
is anticipated once the shear increases significantly in about 2
days. In fact, Barbara could lose its deep convection, and thus
become post tropical, around the time it is forecast to cross 140W
into the central Pacific basin. This is indicated by most of the
intensity guidance.

Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9
kt. The hurricane has reached the southwestern edge of the
subtropical high that has been steering the cyclone, and this flow
pattern should force Barbara to move slowly toward the northwest
during the next 2 days or so. After that time, a new ridge is
forecast to re-build north of the cyclone, resulting in a more
westerly track. In addition, since Barbara is forecast to become a
weak shallow cyclone, it will likely become steered by the low-level
trade winds. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous
one, and it continues to be in the middle of the guidance envelope
and basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.9N 126.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 14.6N 128.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 15.7N 129.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 16.9N 131.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 18.0N 133.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 19.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 19.0N 144.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/1200Z 18.5N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-03 14:46

WTPZ32 KNHC 031442
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 AM HST WED JUL 03 2019

...BARBARA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN BUT STILL A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 126.6W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1925 MI...3095 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST. BARBARA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BARBARA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND BARBARA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB (27.73 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-03 14:46

WTPZ22 KNHC 031442 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC WED JUL 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 126.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 126.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 126.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 128.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.9N 131.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.0N 133.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

>

2019-07-03 14:46

WTPZ22 KNHC 031442
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC WED JUL 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 126.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 126.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 126.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 128.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.9N 131.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.0N 133.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 144.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.5N 150.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-03 09:16

WTPN31 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 13.3N 125.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 125.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.1N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.1N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.4N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.9N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.5N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 125.7W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1244 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-03 09:03

WTPZ32 KNHC 030835 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 02 2019

...BARBARA BARGING ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AS A POWERFUL
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 125.6W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1995 MI...3210 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.6 WEST. BARBARA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST, BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED, IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BARBARA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY FASTER WEAKENING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BARBARA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SOME TIME ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES (295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB (27.55 INCHES).

>

2019-07-03 08:41

WTPZ42 KNHC 030836 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 02 2019

BARBARA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. THE SOLID
WHITE RING THAT HAD SURROUNDED THE EYE IN THE DVORAK ENHANCEMENT AT
THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS ERODED, AND THE EYE IS NOT
QUITE AS WARM. ALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN AS A RESULT,
BARBARA'S WINDS WOULD LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO RESPOND, AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 135 KT AS A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS, INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL, THAT SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM. FIRST, THE LAYER OF
WARM WATER AT THE OCEAN'S SURFACE AHEAD OF BARBARA IS BECOMING
SHALLOWER, WITH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES FALLING TO ZERO IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SECOND, A VERY RECENT GPM MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS
THAT BARBARA IS DEVELOPING A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE, WHICH
TENDS TO PRECEDE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING.
ONCE WEAKENING IS UNDERWAY DUE TO THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER 20 KT FROM 48
HOURS AND BEYOND. THE INTENSITY MODELS ON THIS CYCLE ARE
SUGGESTING THAT BARBARA'S WEAKENING RATE COULD BE A LITTLE FASTER
THAN SHOWN PREVIOUSLY AFTER 48 HOURS, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
NEW NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA MODEL AND
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. BARBARA COULD LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION,
AND THUS BECOME POST TROPICAL, AROUND THE TIME IT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN.

BARBARA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/12 KT, ALONG

>

2019-07-03 08:40

WTPZ42 KNHC 030836
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

Barbara appears to have reached its peak intensity. The solid
white ring that had surrounded the eye in the Dvorak enhancement at
the time of the previous advisory has eroded, and the eye is not
quite as warm. Although Dvorak T-numbers have fallen as a result,
Barbara's winds would likely take some time to respond, and the
initial intensity is held at 135 kt as a blend of subjective and
objective Dvorak CI numbers.

There are a couple of factors, internal and external, that should
lead to gradual weakening in the short term. First, the layer of
warm water at the ocean's surface ahead of Barbara is becoming
shallower, with oceanic heat content values falling to zero in the
next 48 hours. Second, a very recent GPM microwave overpass suggests
that Barbara is developing a concentric eyewall structure, which
tends to precede an eyewall replacement and associated weakening.
Once weakening is underway due to these circumstances, deep-layer
southwesterly shear is then expected to increase over 20 kt from 48
hours and beyond. The intensity models on this cycle are
suggesting that Barbara's weakening rate could be a little faster
than shown previously after 48 hours, and this is reflected in the
new NHC official forecast, which lies close to the HCCA model and
the intensity consensus. Barbara could lose its deep convection,
and thus become post tropical, around the time it is forecast to
cross 140W into the central Pacific basin.

Barbara continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt, along
the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. There has
been no change in the track forecast reasoning, with the hurricane
expected to turn northwestward and slow down during the next 36
hours as it approaches a large break in the ridge near and east of
the Hawaiian Islands. Once Barbara weakens and becomes a shallower
system, it should then turn back to the west and accelerate on days
3 through 5. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly
southward for much of the forecast period in order to fall closer
to the model consensus solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 13.5N 125.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 14.1N 127.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 15.1N 128.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 16.3N 130.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 17.4N 132.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 18.9N 136.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 19.0N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/0600Z 18.5N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-07-03 08:39

WTPZ32 KNHC 030835
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Barbara Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

...BARBARA BARGING ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AS A POWERFUL
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 125.6W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1995 MI...3210 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Barbara was located
near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 125.6 West. Barbara is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward
the west-northwest or northwest, but at a slightly slower forward
speed, is expected Wednesday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Barbara is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected on Wednesday,
followed by faster weakening on Thursday and Friday. Barbara is
forecast to weaken to a tropical storm some time on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-07-03 08:39

WTPZ22 KNHC 030834 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0900 UTC WED JUL 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 125.6W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 125.6W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 125.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.1N 128.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.3N 130.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.4N 132.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.9N 136.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

>

2019-07-03 08:38

WTPZ22 KNHC 030834
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0900 UTC WED JUL 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 125.6W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 125.6W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 125.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.1N 128.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.3N 130.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.4N 132.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.9N 136.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 142.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.5N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 125.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-07-03 02:59

WTPN31 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 124.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 124.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.7N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.7N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.9N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.1N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.9N 135.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.2N 140.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.0N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 124.7W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1241 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030000Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND
040400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-03 02:38

WTPZ42 KNHC 030233 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 PM HST TUE JUL 02 2019

GOES-17 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES, ALONG WITH PASSIVE
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA, INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS CONTINUED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. A 15-NMI DIAMETER CLEAR EYE WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN 21 DEG C HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTER OF A CIRCULAR CDO
FEATURE CONSISTING OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70 DEG C. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN VACILLATING BETWEEN T6.8/135 KT FROM
UW-CIMSS ADT TO T7.0/140 KT FROM TAFB, NHC OBJECTIVE-AODT, AND CIMSS
SATCON. SINCE THE T7.0/140-KT ESTIMATES HAVE ONLY BEEN INTERMITTENT,
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO A SOLID 135 KT, OR JUST BELOW THE
CATEGORY-5 THRESHOLD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS. BARBARA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF A PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
RESULTING IN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY 72 HOURS WHEN BARBARA
IS EXPECTED TO BE A RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND VERTICALLY SHALLOW
CYCLONE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE AND AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA,
TVCE, AND TVDG.

BARBARA HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY, ALTHOUGH ANOTHER 5-KT
INCREASE IN STRENGTH TONIGHT DURING THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD IS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY, WHICH WOULD BRING THE POWERFUL HURRICANE TO

>

2019-07-03 02:37

WTPZ42 KNHC 030233
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
500 PM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

GOES-17 visible and infrared satellite images, along with passive
microwave satellite data, indicate that Barbara has continued to
rapidly intensify. A 15-nmi diameter clear eye with temperatures
warmer than 21 deg C has developed in the center of a circular CDO
feature consisting of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. Satellite
intensity estimates have been vacillating between T6.8/135 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT to T7.0/140 kt from TAFB, NHC objective-AODT, and CIMSS
SATCON. Since the T7.0/140-kt estimates have only been intermittent,
the intensity has been raised to a solid 135 kt, or just below the
category-5 threshold.

The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. There is no change to
previous forecast discussions. Barbara is forecast to remain south
of a pronounced deep-layer ridge throughout the forecast period,
resulting in west-northwestward to northwestward motion through 48
hours, followed by a turn toward the west by 72 hours when Barbara
is expected to be a rapidly weakening and vertically shallow
cyclone. The latest NHC track guidance is tightly packed around the
previous forecast track, so the new official forecast track is
essentially just an update and an extension of the previous advisory
track, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA,
TVCE, and TVDG.

Barbara has probably peaked in intensity, although another 5-kt
increase in strength tonight during the convective maximum period is
a distinct possibility, which would bring the powerful hurricane to
category 5 status. However, all of the available intensity guidance
is unanimous in indicating a weakening trend will begin in 12 hours
or so due to the development of cold upwelling beneath the
hurricane, coupled with a likely eyewall replacement cycle. The
26-deg-C SST isotherm lies east-west along 17N latitude, and Barbara
is forecast to move over much cooler waters by 48 hours, at which
time more prodigious cold upwelling beneath the cyclone is expected
to develop, causing a rapid weakening trend to ensue. Increasing
southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is
forecast to develop by 96 hours, resulting in Barbara degenerating
into a post-tropical low by the time the cyclone moves west of 140W
longitude and into the central Pacific basin. The new NHC official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is a
little lower than the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

NOTE: Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane
Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time,
and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard
Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time
(PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W. Since Barbara's
day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products
are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 13.1N 124.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 13.7N 126.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 14.7N 127.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 15.9N 129.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 17.1N 131.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 18.9N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 19.2N 140.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/0000Z 19.0N 147.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-03 02:37

WTPZ32 KNHC 030232 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 PM HST TUE JUL 02 2019

...BARBARA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 124.6W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF POWERFUL
HURRICANE BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE
124.6 WEST. BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
(22 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY, BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTHEN IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB (27.55 INCHES).

>

2019-07-03 02:37

WTPZ22 KNHC 030232 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0300 UTC WED JUL 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 124.6W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 124.6W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 124.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.7N 126.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.7N 127.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.9N 129.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.1N 131.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 135.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

>

2019-07-03 02:36

WTPZ32 KNHC 030232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Barbara Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
500 PM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

...BARBARA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 124.6W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of powerful
Hurricane Barbara was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude
124.6 West. Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph
(22 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue for the
next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Thursday.
By Friday, Barbara is expected to turn back toward the west with an
increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h)
with higher gusts. Barbara is a strong category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strengthen is
expected tonight. A steady to rapid weakening trend is forecast to
begin by Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-03 02:36

WTPZ22 KNHC 030232
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0300 UTC WED JUL 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 124.6W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 124.6W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 124.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.7N 126.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.7N 127.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.9N 129.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.1N 131.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 135.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.2N 140.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-02 21:33

WTPN31 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 122.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 122.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.4N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.2N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.2N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.4N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.6N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.3N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.0N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 123.4W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1239 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND
032200Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-02 20:36

WTPZ42 KNHC 022032 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 AM HST TUE JUL 02 2019

BARBARA IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE. THE LATEST ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMS THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
UP TO 160 N MI FROM THE CENTER, WHILE THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND UP TO 30 N MI FROM THE CENTER. A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW
CHANNEL EXISTS OVER NEARLY A 20 DEGREE SWATH OF OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO MESOCYCLONES EVIDENT IN THE
WELL-DEFINED EYE, AND CLOUD TOPS ARE COLDER THAN -70 DEGREES C IN
MOST OF THE EYEWALL. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF
CIMSS ADT AND SATCON YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

BARBARA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
AT 12 KT, TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
BARBARA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THEREAFTER, ONCE THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS TO A SHALLOW SYSTEM, IT SHOULD TURN BACK WESTWARD STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS PER THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TODAY AND THIS EVENING
FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF BARBARA, WHILE IT REMAINS OVER SSTS
GREATER THAN 28 DEG C AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SSTS AHEAD
OF BARBARA START TO DECLINE WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK TAKING THE HURRICANE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS OF ABOUT
26.5 DEG C IN 24 HOURS, AND NEAR 25 DEG C IN 72 HOURS. IN ADDITION,

>

2019-07-02 20:35

WTPZ42 KNHC 022032
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

Barbara is a large and powerful hurricane. The latest ASCAT
scatterometer data confirms that tropical-storm-force winds extend
up to 160 n mi from the center, while the hurricane-force winds
extend up to 30 n mi from the center. A very impressive outflow
channel exists over nearly a 20 degree swath of ocean to the north
of the cyclone. There are at least two mesocyclones evident in the
well-defined eye, and cloud tops are colder than -70 degrees C in
most of the eyewall. A compromise between the subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and the objective estimates of
CIMSS ADT and SATCON yield an initial intensity of 120 kt for this
advisory.

Barbara continues to move toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees
at 12 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge extending from the west
coast of the United States westward across the eastern Pacific.
Barbara will turn northwestward in 36 to 48 hours as it reaches the
southwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, once the cyclone
weakens to a shallow system, it should turn back westward steered by
the low-level flow as per the majority of the track guidance.

There is still a small window of opportunity today and this evening
for additional strengthening of Barbara, while it remains over SSTs
greater than 28 deg C and in a low shear environment. The SSTs ahead
of Barbara start to decline Wednesday morning due to the forecast
track taking the hurricane over progressively cooler waters of about
26.5 deg C in 24 hours, and near 25 deg C in 72 hours. In addition,
the cyclone will be approaching a more stable airmass and moving
into increasing southwesterly vertical shear within a few days. All
of these conditions suggest that Barbara should begin a slow
weakening trend on Wednesday, with the weakening accelerating after
48 hours. By the time Barbara reaches the Central Pacific, it is
likely to be a tropical storm or even a remnant low.

NOTE: Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane
Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time,
and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard
Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time
(PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W. Since Barbara's
day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products
are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 12.9N 123.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.4N 124.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 14.2N 126.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 15.2N 128.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 16.4N 130.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 18.6N 134.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 19.3N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 19.0N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

>

2019-07-02 20:35

WTPZ32 KNHC 022031 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 AM HST TUE JUL 02 2019

...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BARBARA CONTINUES TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 123.2W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.2 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY,
BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BARBARA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB (27.91 INCHES).

>

2019-07-02 20:35

WTPZ32 KNHC 022031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Barbara Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BARBARA CONTINUES TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 123.2W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Barbara was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 123.2 West. Barbara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the northwest on Thursday. By Friday,
Barbara is expected to turn westward with an increase in forward
speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Barbara is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
through tonight. However, a weakening trend is expected to begin on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

>

2019-07-02 20:35

WTPZ22 KNHC 022031 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
2100 UTC TUE JUL 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 123.2W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 123.2W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.4N 124.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.2N 126.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.2N 128.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 134.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

>

2019-07-02 20:35

WTPZ22 KNHC 022031
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
2100 UTC TUE JUL 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 123.2W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 123.2W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.4N 124.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.2N 126.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.2N 128.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 134.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.3N 139.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 145.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 123.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-02 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 021556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.07.2019

HURRICANE BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 121.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.07.2019 0 12.2N 121.9W 944 78
0000UTC 03.07.2019 12 12.9N 124.4W 947 78
1200UTC 03.07.2019 24 13.6N 126.3W 956 72
0000UTC 04.07.2019 36 14.7N 128.1W 957 75
1200UTC 04.07.2019 48 16.1N 129.6W 963 71
0000UTC 05.07.2019 60 17.5N 131.3W 975 60
1200UTC 05.07.2019 72 18.6N 133.1W 990 50
0000UTC 06.07.2019 84 19.0N 135.3W 1000 38
1200UTC 06.07.2019 96 19.2N 137.8W 1006 31
0000UTC 07.07.2019 108 18.9N 140.6W 1009 28
1200UTC 07.07.2019 120 18.5N 144.1W 1010 27
0000UTC 08.07.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.2N 120.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.07.2019 108 13.7N 121.2W 1006 30
1200UTC 07.07.2019 120 15.5N 123.4W 1006 27
0000UTC 08.07.2019 132 16.7N 126.4W 1006 26
1200UTC 08.07.2019 144 17.6N 127.1W 1006 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 7.6N 99.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.07.2019 144 7.8N 100.1W 1007 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021556

>

2019-07-02 15:57

WTNT80 EGRR 021556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.07.2019

HURRICANE BARBARA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 121.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.07.2019 12.2N 121.9W INTENSE
00UTC 03.07.2019 12.9N 124.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2019 13.6N 126.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.07.2019 14.7N 128.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2019 16.1N 129.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.07.2019 17.5N 131.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.07.2019 18.6N 133.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 06.07.2019 19.0N 135.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.07.2019 19.2N 137.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.07.2019 18.9N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2019 18.5N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.2N 120.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.07.2019 13.7N 121.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.07.2019 15.5N 123.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2019 16.7N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2019 17.6N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 7.6N 99.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.07.2019 7.8N 100.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021556

>

2019-07-02 15:31

WTPN31 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 12.3N 121.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 121.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.9N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.7N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.6N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.5N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.8N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.0N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.0N 143.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 122.4W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1249 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND
031600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-02 14:45

WTPZ42 KNHC 021439 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 AM HST TUE JUL 02 2019

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE
STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE HURRICANE HAS
DEVELOPED AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND
BOTH FEATURES HAVE BEEN PRESENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THIS IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY A SUBSTANTIAL
INTENSIFICATION, AND BASED ON BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS
OF 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 115 KT. THIS IS A MARKED INCREASE OF 55 KT SINCE YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. A PREVAILING WARM OCEAN AND LOW SHEAR COULD FUEL
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER,
THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND STRONG
SHEAR PRIMARILY BEYOND 3 DAYS RESULTING IN WEAKENING WHICH COULD
BE MUCH FASTER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY THE TIME
BARBARA REACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, IT IS LIKELY TO BE A TROPICAL
STORM OR EVEN A REMNANT LOW.

BARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 290 DEGREES AR 12 KT. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC. BARBARA SHOULD MOVE
A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 2 OR 3
DAYS, BUT AS SOON AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES SHALLOW, IT
WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IT IS BASICALLY

>

2019-07-02 14:44

WTPZ42 KNHC 021439
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
500 AM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

Conventional satellite imagery and microwave data reveal that the
structure of Barbara has improved significantly. The hurricane has
developed an eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection and
both features have been present during the past several hours.
This improvement in structure has been accompanied by a substantial
intensification, and based on both objective and subjective numbers
of 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, the initial intensity has been adjusted
upward to 115 kt. This is a marked increase of 55 kt since yesterday
at this time. A prevailing warm ocean and low shear could fuel
additional intensification during the next 12 hours or so. However,
the hurricane is forecast to encounter cooler waters and strong
shear primarily beyond 3 days resulting in weakening which could
be much faster by the end of the forecast period. By the time
Barbara reaches the Central Pacific, it is likely to be a tropical
storm or even a remnant low.

Barbara has been moving steadily toward the west and west-northwest
or 290 degrees ar 12 kt. The hurricane is moving south of a
deep-layer ridge of high pressure extending from the west coast of
the United States westward across the Pacific. Barbara should move
a little more to the northwest around the ridge in about 2 or 3
days, but as soon as the cyclone weakens and becomes shallow, it
will likely move to the west steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one, and it is basically
on top of the multi-model consensus.

NOTE: Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane
Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time,
and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard
Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time
(PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W. Since Barbara's
day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products
are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 12.5N 122.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 12.9N 123.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 13.7N 125.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 14.6N 127.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 15.5N 129.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 17.8N 133.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 19.0N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 19.0N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-02 14:43

WTPZ32 KNHC 021438
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
500 AM HST TUE JUL 02 2019

...BARBARA INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS MORNING...
...THE HURRICANE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 122.2W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST. BARBARA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR TWO.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS
A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT WEAKENING IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB (28.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-02 14:43

WTPZ22 KNHC 021438 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC TUE JUL 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 122.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 122.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 121.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 123.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.7N 125.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 127.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.8N 133.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

>

2019-07-02 14:42

WTPZ22 KNHC 021438
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC TUE JUL 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 122.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 122.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 121.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 123.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.7N 125.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 127.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.8N 133.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 137.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 143.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 122.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-02 12:34

WTPZ62 KNHC 021230
TCUEP2

Hurricane Barbara Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
230 AM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

...BARBARA STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY...

Satellite images show that Barbara has continued to strengthen
faster than previously indicated and the maximum winds have reached
130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This increase in intensity
will be reflected in the next advisory package.


SUMMARY OF 230 AM HST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 121.6W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-02 09:56

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 11.8N 120.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 120.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 12.4N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.0N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.8N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.7N 128.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.9N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.5N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 121.3W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1268 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-02 08:42

WTPZ42 KNHC 020837 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 PM HST MON JUL 01 2019

RECENT METOP-A AND -B MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BARBARA'S
EYEWALL IS NO LONGER BROKEN AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO SHIELD ITSELF FROM
THE DRY AIR THAT HAD BEEN PENETRATING THE INNER CORE. AN EYE IS
ALSO BECOMING MORE APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE HAVE INCREASED TO T5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB
AND T5.5/102 KT FROM SAB, WHILE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE T5.5/102 KT
AND 81 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON, RESPECTIVELY. BARBARA'S
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET AT 95 KT, MEANING THAT THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PHASE CONTINUES.

LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, BENEFICIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND DEEP WARM
WATER ARE LIKELY TO FOSTER ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS, WITH BARBARA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
SOON. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES DECREASE MARKEDLY BY 36 HOURS,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING, FOLLOWED BY FASTER WEAKENING
ON DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. THE UPDATED NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THE FIRST DAY OR TWO AND STILL SHOWS BARBARA'S PEAK INTENSITY
REACHING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY DURING THAT PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE
HOSTILE AFTER DAY 3, AND THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING
RATE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT, IF THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE CORRECT, BARBARA COULD LOSE ITS DEEP
CONVECTION AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE WEEKEND.

>

2019-07-02 08:41

WTPZ42 KNHC 020837
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 01 2019

Recent METOP-A and -B microwave images indicate that Barbara's
eyewall is no longer broken and has been able to shield itself from
the dry air that had been penetrating the inner core. An eye is
also becoming more apparent in infrared satellite imagery.
Subjective Dvorak estimate have increased to T5.0/90 kt from TAFB
and T5.5/102 kt from SAB, while objective numbers are T5.5/102 kt
and 81 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. Barbara's
initial intensity is therefore set at 95 kt, meaning that the rapid
intensification phase continues.

Low vertical shear, beneficial upper-level outflow, and deep warm
water are likely to foster additional strengthening for the next
24-36 hours, with Barbara expected to become a major hurricane
soon. Oceanic heat content values decrease markedly by 36 hours,
which should lead to gradual weakening, followed by faster weakening
on days 4 and 5 when southwesterly shear increases. The updated NHC
intensity forecast is not too dissimilar from the previous forecast
during the first day or two and still shows Barbara's peak intensity
reaching category 4 intensity during that period. The models are in
good agreement that environmental conditions will become quite
hostile after day 3, and the new forecast shows a faster weakening
rate toward the end of the forecast period. In fact, if the GFS
and European models are correct, Barbara could lose its deep
convection and become a post-tropical cyclone over the weekend.

Barbara's trajectory remains westward at 280/13 kt, with steering
dominated by a subtropical ridge which extends westward from
northern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to gradually reach the
western periphery of the ridge in the coming days, which should
cause it to turn northwestward and slow down by 48-72 hours. After
that time, a weaker Barbara should turn back toward the west and
accelerate, steered by lower-level trade winds. Negligible
adjustments, primarily after 48 hours, were made to the NHC official
track forecast, which lies close to the TVDG multi-model consensus.

NOTE: Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane
Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time,
and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard
Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time
(PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W. Since Barbara's
day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products
are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 12.0N 121.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 12.4N 122.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 13.0N 125.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 13.8N 126.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 14.7N 128.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 16.9N 132.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 18.5N 136.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 19.0N 141.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-07-02 08:40

WTPZ32 KNHC 020836
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1100 PM HST MON JUL 01 2019

...BARBARA STILL STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 121.1W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE SOON. WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES (295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB (28.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-07-02 08:40

WTPZ22 KNHC 020836 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0900 UTC TUE JUL 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 121.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 121.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.4N 122.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 125.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 126.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.7N 128.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.9N 132.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

>

2019-07-02 08:40

WTPZ22 KNHC 020836
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0900 UTC TUE JUL 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 121.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 121.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.4N 122.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 125.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 126.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.7N 128.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.9N 132.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 18.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 141.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 121.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-07-02 03:05

WTPN31 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 11.6N 119.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 119.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.3N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.9N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.6N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.4N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.4N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.0N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.7N 139.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 120.0W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1271 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-02 02:39

WTPZ42 KNHC 020234 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
800 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2019

PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES THAT THE
INNER-CORE CONVECTION OF BARBARA HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND A
RAGGED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE HAS FORMED. HOWEVER, A PRONOUNCED DRY
INTRUSION HAS PERIODICALLY WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS, RESULTING IN BRIEF EROSIONS OF THE EYEWALL.
DESPITE THE DRY AIR, BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
NEAR THE CENTER AND THE MOST RECENT HI-RESOLUTION GOES-17 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT A MORE ROBUST EYEWALL IS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5/77 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON VALUES ARE T4.5/77
KT AND 80 KT, RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE OCCASIONAL APPEARANCE OF A
RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, MEANING
THAT BARBARA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.

BARBARA'S INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST RATIONALE. BARBARA SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHORTLY, AND THAT GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE, ALLOWING BARBARA TO MOVE MORE POLEWARD. IN
THE 96-120 HOUR PERIOD, HOWEVER, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK
IN, FORCING BARBARA BACK TOWARD THE WEST. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES

>

2019-07-02 02:39

WTPZ42 KNHC 020234
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 01 2019

Passive microwave imagery over the past 6 hours indicates that the
inner-core convection of Barbara has continued to consolidate and a
ragged low- to mid-level eye has formed. However, a pronounced dry
intrusion has periodically worked its way into the center of the
convective cloud mass, resulting in brief erosions of the eyewall.
Despite the dry air, bursts of deep convection have been developing
near the center and the most recent hi-resolution GOES-17 visible
satellite images suggest that a more robust eyewall is possibly
developing. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T4.5/77 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON values are T4.5/77
kt and 80 kt, respectively. Given the occasional appearance of a
ragged cloud-filled eye in visible satellite imagery, the initial
intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this advisory, meaning
that Barbara has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours.

Barbara's initial motion is 280/13 kt. There remains no significant
change to the previous track forecast rationale. Barbara should
turn toward the west-northwest shortly, and that general motion is
forecast to continue for the next 36-48 hours. After that time, a
passing shortwave trough is expected to weaken the ridge to the
north of the hurricane, allowing Barbara to move more poleward. In
the 96-120 hour period, however, the ridge is forecast to build back
in, forcing Barbara back toward the west. The new NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to a blend of the TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models.

The combination of low vertical wind shear, an expanding upper-level
outflow regime, a moist mid-level environment, and SSTs greater than
28 deg C is expected to persist for at least the next 36 hours,
allowing Barbara to continue to rapidly strengthen during that time.
By 48 hours, however, steady weakening is expected to begin due to a
probable eyewall replacement cycle, the beginning of cold upwelling,
and increasing southwesterly wind shear. On days 4 and 5, more
rapid weakening is forecast due to Barbara moving over sub-26 deg C
water temperatures and into vertical wind shear conditions of more
than 20 kt. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, and is a little above the consensus guidance
throughout the entire forecast period, closer to the Decay-SHIPS
model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 11.7N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 12.3N 121.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 12.9N 124.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 13.6N 125.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 14.4N 127.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 16.4N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 18.0N 134.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 18.7N 139.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-02 02:38

WTPZ32 KNHC 020233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
800 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2019

...BARBARA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 119.8W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.8 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
(260 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB (28.91 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-02 02:36

WTPZ22 KNHC 020232 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 119.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 119.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 119.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.3N 121.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 124.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.4N 127.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.4N 131.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.

>

2019-07-02 02:36

WTPZ22 KNHC 020232
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0300 UTC TUE JUL 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 119.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 119.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 119.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.3N 121.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 124.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.4N 127.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.4N 131.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 134.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 18.7N 139.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 119.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-01 21:50

WTPN31 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 11.4N 117.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 117.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.0N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 12.6N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.3N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.0N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.0N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.5N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.5N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 118.7W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1279 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-01 20:50

WTPZ42 KNHC 012041 RRA
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
200 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2019

THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY HINTING THAT AN EYE IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION, BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED AND THE
CYCLONE'S OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED WITH
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 140 N MI FROM THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, MAKING BARBARA THE SECOND
HURRICANE OF THE 2019 SEASON.

THERE ARE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
SHIPS-MODEL RI INDICES INDICATE ABOUT 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A 30-KT
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND NEARLY A 50
PERCENT CHANCE FOR A 35-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THROUGH 60 HOURS, AND LIES ALONG OR NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 60
HOURS, BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER COOLER SSTS, WHILE APPROACHING A REGION OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BARBARA CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 14 KT. THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAT IS STEERING IT WESTWARD WILL
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE

>

2019-07-01 20:50

WTPZ32 KNHC 012041
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
200 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2019

...BARBARA BECOMES A HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 118.5W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
(260 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB (29.03 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-01 20:50

WTPZ22 KNHC 012040 RRA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
2100 UTC MON JUL 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 118.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 118.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.0N 120.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.6N 122.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.3N 125.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 126.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 129.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

>

2019-07-01 20:49

WTPZ42 KNHC 012041
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 01 2019

The inner-core structure of Barbara has improved markedly throughout
the day, with microwave imagery hinting that an eye is beginning to
develop. In addition, banding features have increased and the
cyclone's outflow is well-established in all quadrants. A recent
scatterometer pass showed that the wind field has expanded with
tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 140 n mi from the center.
The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt based on an average of
the latest satellite intensity estimates, making Barbara the second
hurricane of the 2019 season.

There are favorable environmental conditions in place for rapid
intensification (RI) to occur over the next 24 to 36 hours. The
SHIPS-model RI indices indicate about 60 percent chance for a 30-kt
increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours, and nearly a 50
percent chance for a 35-kt increase over the next 24 hours. The
latest NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly higher
through 60 hours, and lies along or near the upper end of the
latest guidance given the expected conducive environment. After 60
hours, Barbara is expected to begin to move into a drier environment
and over cooler SSTs, while approaching a region of increasing
southwesterly shear. This will induce a weakening trend that will
continue through the end of the forecast period.

Barbara continues to move just north of due west at 14 kt. The
ridge to the north of the cyclone that is steering it westward will
weaken somewhat over the next couple of days, which will cause the
forward motion of the cyclone to decrease along with a turn to the
west-northwest and possibly even briefly northwest. The ridge
will re-strengthen later on in the forecast period, which will
result in a turn back to the west-northwest to west with an increase
in forward speed. The track guidance has shifted northward,
especially beyond 72 hours, and the NHC forecast track has been
adjusted in that direction. However, this forecast lies on the
southern side of the track guidance envelope, closest to the latest
ECMWF guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 11.5N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.0N 120.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 12.6N 122.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.3N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.0N 126.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 16.0N 129.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 17.5N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 18.5N 138.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

>

2019-07-01 20:49

WTPZ22 KNHC 012040
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
2100 UTC MON JUL 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 118.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 140SE 120SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 118.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.0N 120.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.6N 122.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.3N 125.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 126.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 129.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 18.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 118.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/CANGIALOSI

>

2019-07-01 15:30

WTPN31 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 11.3N 116.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 116.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.7N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.2N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.8N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.5N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.1N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.0N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.0N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 117.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1284 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-01 14:41

WTPZ42 KNHC 011436 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
800 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2019

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BARBARA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, PLENTY OF
CONVECTIVE BANDS, AND AN EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE
CYCLONE STRUCTURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGES HAS ALSO IMPROVED, ALTHOUGH
THE LOW- AND MIDDLE-LEVELS ARE NOT QUITE ALIGNED YET. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, AND AN AVERAGE OF
THESE ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH OCEAN TEMPERATURE FAVORS
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE, AND IN FACT, RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEXES PROVIDED IN THE SHIPS MODEL SUITES ARE QUITE
HIGH, INDICATING THAT MORE THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS PROCESS
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. ON THIS BASIS, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
BARBARA TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO CATEGORY 3 OR EVEN 4 ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND 3
DAYS, BARBARA WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD THEN BEGIN.

BARBARA HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED A LITTLE, AND THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
275 DEGREES AT 14 KT. THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW STEERING THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN THE HURRICANE'S FORWARD SPEED, BUT NO CHANGE
IN DIRECTION. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE, AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE STILL TIGHTLY CLUSTERED,
BRINGING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 5

>

2019-07-01 14:41

WTPZ32 KNHC 011436
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
800 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2019

...BARBARA READY TO BECOME A HURRICANE AND A STRONG ONE...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 117.3W
ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY,
AND GATHER SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-01 14:40

WTPZ42 KNHC 011436
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 01 2019

The satellite presentation of Barbara has continued to improve
with the development of a central dense overcast, plenty of
convective bands, and an excellent upper-level outflow pattern. The
cyclone structure in microwave images has also improved, although
the low- and middle-levels are not quite aligned yet. Dvorak
T-numbers have continued to gradually increase, and an average of
these estimates yields an initial intensity of 60 kt.

The environment of low shear and high ocean temperature favors
significant strengthening of the cyclone, and in fact, Rapid
Intensification Indexes provided in the SHIPS model suites are quite
high, indicating that more than a 70 percent chance of this process
is expected to occur. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for
Barbara to increase in intensity to Category 3 or even 4 on the
Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale within the next day or two. Beyond 3
days, Barbara will encounter cooler waters and gradual weakening
should then begin.

Barbara has decreased its forward speed a little, and the best
estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or
275 degrees at 14 kt. The deep-layer mean flow steering the
cyclone is expected to weaken further, and this should result in an
additional decrease in the hurricane's forward speed, but no change
in direction. There has been no significant change in the
track guidance, and most of the models are still tightly clustered,
bringing the hurricane toward the west-northwest through the next 5
days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one,
perhaps a very small shift to the north, but in general, it is
basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 11.4N 117.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 11.7N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 12.2N 121.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 12.8N 123.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 13.5N 125.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 15.1N 129.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 17.0N 133.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-01 14:40

WTPZ22 KNHC 011435 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC MON JUL 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 117.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 117.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 116.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.2N 121.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.8N 123.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.5N 125.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.1N 129.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-07-01 14:39

WTPZ22 KNHC 011435
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC MON JUL 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 117.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 117.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 116.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.2N 121.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.8N 123.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.5N 125.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.1N 129.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 117.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-01 09:02

WTPN31 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 11.1N 115.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 115.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.5N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.9N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 12.4N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.0N 124.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.5N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.3N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.2N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 116.0W.
TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1301 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-01 08:40

WTPZ42 KNHC 010835 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
200 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2019

ALTHOUGH EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT BARBARA WAS STILL
BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED OVERNIGHT AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MORE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. A COUPLE OF
EARLIER ASCAT PASSES REVEALED PEAK WINDS OF 50 KT, AND A MUCH LARGER
AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE CYCLONE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. DUE TO THE TYPICAL
UNDERSAMPLING OF PEAK WINDS IN THE ASCAT INSTRUMENT, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT, WHICH IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE, AND ADT
AND SATCON ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST A REDUCTION IN THE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE BARBARA MOVES OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW STEADY
TO PERHAPS RAPID STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SHIPS, FSSE, AND HCCA MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE AND PREDICT RAPID
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 H, WHILE THE HWRF AND HMON
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE, THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
MODELS, BUT STILL PREDICTS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS, COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/18 KT. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO

>

2019-07-01 08:40

WTPZ42 KNHC 010835
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 01 2019

Although earlier microwave imagery indicated that Barbara was still
being affected by moderate northwesterly shear, the upper-level
outflow has expanded overnight and the center appears to be more
embedded within the area of very cold cloud tops. A couple of
earlier ASCAT passes revealed peak winds of 50 kt, and a much larger
area of tropical-storm-force winds over the eastern semicircle of
the cyclone than previously analyzed. Due to the typical
undersampling of peak winds in the ASCAT instrument, the initial
intensity has been increased to 55 kt, which is also in good
agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate, and ADT
and SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS.

As mentioned in the previous advisory, the global models continue
to forecast a reduction in the deep-layer vertical wind shear
during the next couple of days while Barbara moves over warm sea
surface temperatures. These conditions are expected to allow steady
to perhaps rapid strengthening over the next couple of days. The
SHIPS, FSSE, and HCCA models are quite aggressive and predict rapid
strengthening during the next 24 to 36 h, while the HWRF and HMON
models are somewhat lower. Given the current structure of the
cyclone, the NHC forecast is a little below the more aggressive
models, but still predicts significant strengthening during the
next 24 to 48 hours. After 72 hours, cooler waters and increasing
southwesterly shear are expected to cause gradual weakening.

The initial motion estimate is 275/18 kt. A deep-layer ridge to
the north of the storm is forecast to gradually weaken over the
next several days. This should cause Barbara to slow down and turn
west-northwestward within the next day or so. By 96 h, the ridge
is forecast to build westward which should cause the cyclone to turn
back toward the west. While the dynamical models generally
agree on the overall scenario there are some differences in the
predicted forward speed and how far north Barbara will move. The
NHC forecast splits these differences and lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope, closest to the Florida State Superensemble.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 11.2N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 11.5N 117.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 11.9N 120.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 12.4N 122.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 13.0N 124.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 14.5N 128.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 16.3N 132.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 17.2N 136.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-07-01 08:40

WTPZ32 KNHC 010835
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
200 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2019

...BARBARA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 115.8W
ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH (33 KM/H). A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-07-01 08:39

WTPZ22 KNHC 010834 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.8W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.8W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.9N 120.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.4N 122.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 124.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.5N 128.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-07-01 08:38

WTPZ22 KNHC 010834
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.8W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.8W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.9N 120.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.4N 122.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 124.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.5N 128.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.3N 132.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.2N 136.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 115.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-07-01 03:00

WTPN31 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 113.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 113.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.5N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.9N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.3N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.8N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.0N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.7N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.8N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 114.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1325 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-01 02:38

WTPZ42 KNHC 010233 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
900 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2019

BARBARA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE MODEST NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING A RAPIDLY
IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE COLDEST OVERSHOOTING TOPS DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY OF T3.0/45
FROM TAFB AND SAB, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A LATE-ARRIVING 1647Z
ASCAT-C OVERPASS THAT CONTAINED WIND VECTORS OF 41-42 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNUSUALLY BRISK 275/19 KT. A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS,
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY 96 HOURS, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE, ALLOWING BARBARA
TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND GAIN SOME LATITUDE. BY DAY 5,
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE BACK ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY TRACK. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH THE HWRF REMAINING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE
AND THE ECMWF ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TVCE, HCCA, AND FSSE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEEP-LAYER AND MID-LEVEL

>

2019-07-01 02:38

WTPZ42 KNHC 010233
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
900 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Barbara has continued to strengthen despite modest northwesterly
mid-level vertical wind shear that has been undercutting a rapidly
improving upper-level outflow pattern. Passive microwave satellite
images over the past few hours indicate that the low-level center is
displaced to the west of the coldest overshooting tops due to the
aforementioned shear conditions. The initial intensity has been
increased to 45 kt based on a consensus Dvorak intensity of T3.0/45
from TAFB and SAB, which is consistent with a late-arriving 1647Z
ASCAT-C overpass that contained wind vectors of 41-42 kt.

The initial motion is an unusually brisk 275/19 kt. A deep-layer
ridge to the north of Barbara is expected to steer the tropical
cyclone westward to west-northwestward for the next 48-72 hours,
accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. By 96 hours, a
shortwave trough is forecast to weaken the ridge, allowing Barbara
to turn more toward the northwest and gain some latitude. By day 5,
however, the ridge is forecast to build back in behind the exiting
trough, which should force the cyclone back on a west-northwesterly
to westerly track. The latest track guidance continues to be tightly
clustered with the HWRF remaining on the north side of the envelope
and the ECMWF on the south side. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to but a little south of the previous advisory track, and
lies close to a blend of the TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models.

The global models continue to forecast the deep-layer and mid-level
vertical wind shear to steadily decrease from the current 15 kt to
near 5 kt by 48-72 hours. The low shear conditions, along with SSTs
of 28-29 deg C, should allow for at least steady strengthening for
the next 48 h or so, followed by more significant strengthening in
the 48-72 h time period. After that time, cooler water temperatures
beneath the cyclone coupled with the strong inner-core wind field
are expected to result in significant cold upwelling, which should
induce steady weakening on days 4-5. Rapid intensification in the
24-72 h time frame is a distinct possibility, which would result in
Barbara becoming a stronger major hurricane than currently forecast.
The new official intensity forecast is a little more robust than the
previous advisory, and follows a blend of the HCCA, ICON, and FSSE
intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.0N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 11.5N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 11.9N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 12.3N 121.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 12.8N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 15.7N 130.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 16.8N 135.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-01 02:38

WTPZ32 KNHC 010233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
900 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2019

...BARBARA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 114.2W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS, AND BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-01 02:37

WTPZ22 KNHC 010232 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0300 UTC MON JUL 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 114.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 114.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.5N 116.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.9N 119.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.3N 121.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.8N 123.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-07-01 02:36

WTPZ22 KNHC 010232
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
0300 UTC MON JUL 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 114.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 114.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.5N 116.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.9N 119.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.3N 121.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.8N 123.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 15.7N 130.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.8N 135.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 114.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-06-30 21:48

WTPN31 PHNC 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 111.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 111.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 11.4N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.9N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.2N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 12.6N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.0N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.5N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.5N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302200Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 112.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1357 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-30 20:40

WTPZ42 KNHC 302035 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
300 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2019

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BARBARA IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED,
WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND NOW FORMING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 KT, AND THAT A LARGE AREA
OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS NOW WRAPS MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE
CENTER. HOWEVER, THE WIND DATA ALSO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTER INTO THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/16. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEER IT WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 48 H OR SO WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER
THAT, A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW A WEST- NORTHWESTERLY
MOTION FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BETWEEN THE HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE NEW FORECAST,
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, LIES NEAR BOTH THE CENTER
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

SOME NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT BARBARA,
AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12 H OR SO. AFTER THAT, THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH 72 H. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS
CALLS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 12 H AND A FASTER RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. THE VARIOUS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES
SUGGEST A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION FROM 12-72

>

2019-06-30 20:39

WTPZ42 KNHC 302035
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
300 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

The cloud pattern of Barbara is slowly becoming better organized,
with a curved convective band now forming in the southeastern
semicircle. A recent ASCAT overpass indicates that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 40 kt, and that a large area
of tropical-storm force winds now wraps more than halfway around the
center. However, the wind data also show a significant trough
extending southwestward from the center into the Intertropical
Convergence Zone.

The initial motion is now 280/16. A mid-level ridge to the north of
the cyclone should steer it westward to west-northwestward for the
next 48 h or so with a gradual decrease in forward speed. After
that, a weakness in the ridge should allow a west- northwesterly
motion for the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance
remains fairly tightly clustered between the HWRF on the north side
of the envelope and the ECMWF on the south side. The new forecast,
which is similar to the previous forecast, lies near both the center
of the guidance envelope and the various consensus models.

Some northwesterly vertical wind shear continues to affect Barbara,
and this should persist for another 12 h or so. After that, the
cyclone should be in an environment of light shear and over warm sea
surface temperatures through 72 h. The intensity forecast thus
calls for slow development through 12 h and a faster rate of
development thereafter. The various rapid intensification indices
suggest a 40-50 percent chance of rapid intensification from 12-72
h, and if this occurs Barbara could become a major hurricane. Beyond
72 h, the forecast track takes the center over decreasing water
temperatures and into renewed shear, which should cause some
weakening. How much weakening, though, is going to be tied to how
far over the colder water the cyclone moves, with a more northerly
track resulting in a weaker storm then currently forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 10.9N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 11.4N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 11.9N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 12.2N 120.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 12.6N 122.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 14.0N 126.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 15.5N 129.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 133.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-06-30 20:39

WTPZ32 KNHC 302035
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
300 PM MDT SUN JUN 30 2019

...BARBARA MOVING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 112.2W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-06-30 20:39

WTPZ22 KNHC 302034 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.4N 114.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.9N 117.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.2N 120.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.6N 122.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 129.0W

>

2019-06-30 20:38

WTPZ22 KNHC 302034
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.4N 114.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.9N 117.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.2N 120.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.6N 122.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-06-30 15:07

WTPZ42 KNHC 301502 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2019

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH THE CENTER
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
IN ADDITION, EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED THAT 35-KT WINDS
EXISTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE.
THIS INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND THUS ADVISORIES ARE STARTED ON TROPICAL
STORM BARBARA, THE SECOND NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON.

BARBARA'S INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL STEER IT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, BARBARA WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES IN
THE MIDDLE OF A SUITE OF GUIDANCE THAT IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
96 HOURS AND BEGINS TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME.

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BARBARA SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS
SOME SHEAR AFFECTING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CYCLONE. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONCURS WITH THIS AND INDICATES
10-15 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE CIRCULATION.
THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GUIDANCE TO BEGIN TO ABATE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. OTHERWISE, BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION AND OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 4

>

2019-06-30 15:06

WTPZ42 KNHC 301502
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure and
associated convection located several hundred miles southwest of
southern Mexico has become better organized, with the center
embedded in the northern side of a large area of deep convection.
In addition, earlier scatterometer data revealed that 35-kt winds
existed in the eastern semicircle of the developing cyclone.
This intensity is in agreement with the latest subjective satellite
estimate from TAFB and thus advisories are started on Tropical
Storm Barbara, the second named storm of the Eastern Pacific
hurricane season.

Barbara's initial motion is 285/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone will steer it to the west-northwest for the
next several days. Later on in the forecast period, Barbara will
approach the southwestern periphery of the ridge which should induce
some slowing of the forward motion. The NHC track forecast lies in
the middle of a suite of guidance that is tightly clustered through
96 hours and begins to diverge slightly beyond that time frame.

The overall satellite presentation of Barbara suggests that there is
some shear affecting the convection over the northern part of the
cyclone. Statistical guidance concurs with this and indicates
10-15 kt of northwesterly shear currently over the circulation.
This shear is forecast by the guidance to begin to abate in about 24
hours. Otherwise, Barbara is expected to be in a favorable
environment for intensification and over warm waters for the next 4
to 5 days. The official forecast takes into account this initial
shear during the early inner-core development stages of Barbara, and
calls for a slow and steady strengthening through 24 hours.
Thereafter, the lower-shear environment and likely consolidating
inner-core should allow for a faster rate of intensification. The
official forecast intensity is close to the dynamical guidance
through 72 hours, and is near the upper edge of the guidance beyond
72 hours, bringing Barbara to category 2 intensity by 72 hours.
After 96 hours, Barbara will be approaching a tight gradient in SSTs
to its north. Also, both dynamical and statistical guidance indicate
that the cyclone will be approaching a region with increasing
southwesterly shear. Both of these factors should contribute to a
gradual weakening after 96 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 10.6N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 11.1N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 11.6N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 12.0N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 12.4N 121.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 13.5N 125.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 15.0N 128.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven

>

2019-06-30 14:48

WTPZ42 KNHC 301443 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2019

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH THE CENTER
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
IN ADDITION, EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED THAT 35-KT WINDS
EXISTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE.
THIS INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND THUS ADVISORIES ARE STARTED ON TROPICAL
STORM BARBARA, THE SECOND NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON.

BARBARA'S INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL STEER IT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, BARBARA WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES IN
THE MIDDLE OF A SUITE OF GUIDANCE THAT IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
96 HOURS AND BEGINS TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME.

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BARBARA SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS
SOME SHEAR AFFECTING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CYCLONE. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONCURS WITH THIS AND INDICATES
10-15 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE CIRCULATION.
THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GUIDANCE TO BEGIN TO ABATE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. OTHERWISE, BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION AND OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 4

>

2019-06-30 14:48

WTPZ42 KNHC 301443
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure and
associated convection located several hundred miles southwest of
southern Mexico has become better organized, with the center
embedded in the northern side of a large area of deep convection.
In addition, earlier scatterometer data revealed that 35-kt winds
existed in the eastern semicircle of the developing cyclone.
This intensity is in agreement with the latest subjective satellite
estimate from TAFB and thus advisories are started on Tropical
Storm Barbara, the second named storm of the Eastern Pacific
hurricane season.

Barbara's initial motion is 285/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone will steer it to the west-northwest for the
next several days. Later on in the forecast period, Barbara will
approach the southwestern periphery of the ridge which should induce
some slowing of the forward motion. The NHC track forecast lies in
the middle of a suite of guidance that is tightly clustered through
96 hours and begins to diverge slightly beyond that time frame.

The overall satellite presentation of Barbara suggests that there is
some shear affecting the convection over the northern part of the
cyclone. Statistical guidance concurs with this and indicates
10-15 kt of northwesterly shear currently over the circulation.
This shear is forecast by the guidance to begin to abate in about 24
hours. Otherwise, Barbara is expected to be in a favorable
environment for intensification and over warm waters for the next 4
to 5 days. The official forecast takes into account this initial
shear during the early inner-core development stages of Barbara, and
calls for a slow and steady strengthening through 24 hours.
Thereafter, the lower-shear environment and likely consolidating
inner-core should allow for a faster rate of intensification. The
official forecast intensity is close to the dynamical guidance
through 72 hours, and is near the upper edge of the guidance beyond
72 hours, bringing Barbara to category 2 intensity by 72 hours.
After 96 hours, Barbara will be approaching a tight gradient in SSTs
to its north. Also, both dynamical and statistical guidance indicate
that the cyclone will be approaching a region with increasing
southwesterly shear. Both of these factors should contribute to a
gradual weakening after 96 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 10.6N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 11.1N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 11.6N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 12.0N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 12.4N 121.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 13.5N 125.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 15.0N 128.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-06-30 14:47

WTPZ32 KNHC 301442
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2019

...TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 110.4W
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

>

2019-06-30 14:47

WTPZ22 KNHC 301442 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC SUN JUN 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 110.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 110.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.1N 112.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.6N 115.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.0N 118.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.5N 125.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 15.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W

>

2019-06-30 14:46

WTPZ22 KNHC 301442
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC SUN JUN 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 110.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 110.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.1N 112.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.6N 115.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.0N 118.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.5N 125.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 15.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 110.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

>