Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALVIN-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2019-06-29 14:53

WTPN31 PHNC 291600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 120.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 120.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.3N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 120.6W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-29 14:40

WTPZ41 KNHC 291435
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 29 2019

ALVIN CONTINUES TO BE DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WHILE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM'S
CIRCULATION. DUE TO THE ONGOING LACK OF CONVECTION, IT IS ESTIMATED
THAT ALVIN HAS DEGENERATED INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW.

THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN 18-24 H.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ALVIN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 20.7N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/0000Z 21.3N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

>

2019-06-29 14:38

WTPZ31 KNHC 291434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 29 2019

...ALVIN DECAYS INTO A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 120.5W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 306 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.5 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13
KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


..
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

>

2019-06-29 14:38

WTPZ21 KNHC 291434
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
1500 UTC SAT JUN 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 120.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 306 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 120.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.3N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 120.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


..
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

>

2019-06-29 09:00

WTPN31 PHNC 291000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 015
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 20.1N 119.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 119.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.6N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
291000Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 120.1W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 768 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-29 08:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 290834
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 29 2019

ALVIN HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG
SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS HAVE CAUSED A RAPID DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT, AND IS
BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS. THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TODAY,
AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS
MORNING.

AS EXPECTED, ALVIN HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/7 KT. NOW THAT ALVIN HAS
BECOME A VERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM, A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW IS
FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK LIES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 20.3N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-06-29 08:37

WTPZ31 KNHC 290833
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 29 2019

...ALVIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 119.9W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13
KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND ALVIN IS
EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-06-29 08:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 290833
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
0900 UTC SAT JUN 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 119.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 119.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.6N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 119.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-06-29 04:23

WTPN31 PHNC 290400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.8N 118.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 118.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.8N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.1N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.3N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
290400Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 119.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 779 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291000Z, 291600Z, 292200Z AND 300400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-06-29 04:00

WTPN31 PHNC 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 118.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 118.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.7N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.5N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.0N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
282200Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 118.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290400Z, 291000Z, 291600Z AND 292200Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-29 02:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 290232
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2019

ALVIN HAS VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION, AS STRONG
SHEAR AND A COOLER OCEAN HAVE BEEN TAKING THEIR TOLL. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 35 KT, WHICH
ASSUMES A STEADY WEAKENING SINCE THE LAST SCATTEROMETER-BASED
ESTIMATE. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN HOSTILE, ALVIN IS
LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

THE MOTION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED, OR
310/11 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, THE WEAKENING AND INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 20.1N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z 21.3N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-06-29 02:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 290231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2019

...ALVIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 119.3W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND ALVIN IS
EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-06-29 02:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 290231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
0300 UTC SAT JUN 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.3W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.3W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.3N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 119.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-06-28 20:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 282032
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2019

ALVIN IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO MOTION OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 23-24C AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT ASCAT DATA AND
SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. CONTINUED RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND ALVIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 24 H AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 36 H.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-18 H DUE TO FLOW AROUND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT TIME, THE WEAKENING AND
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 19.7N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.7N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 21.5N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 22.0N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-06-28 20:37

WTPZ31 KNHC 282032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2019

...ALVIN NOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 118.6W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND ALVIN IS
EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-06-28 20:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 282031
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
2100 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 118.6W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 118.6W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 118.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.7N 120.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.5N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.0N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 118.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-06-28 15:59

WTNT82 EGRR 281557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.06.2019

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 116.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.06.2019 0 18.8N 116.9W 989 56
0000UTC 29.06.2019 12 20.2N 118.6W 1003 36
1200UTC 29.06.2019 24 21.3N 119.8W 1009 22
0000UTC 30.06.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 10.8N 107.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2019 48 11.3N 109.2W 1006 26
0000UTC 01.07.2019 60 12.1N 113.2W 1006 25
1200UTC 01.07.2019 72 12.7N 116.7W 1006 25
0000UTC 02.07.2019 84 13.2N 119.9W 1006 26
1200UTC 02.07.2019 96 13.9N 122.8W 1006 27
0000UTC 03.07.2019 108 14.2N 125.7W 1005 28
1200UTC 03.07.2019 120 14.2N 128.7W 1002 30
0000UTC 04.07.2019 132 14.5N 130.9W 999 33
1200UTC 04.07.2019 144 14.8N 132.6W 997 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 9.9N 135.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2019 72 10.0N 136.2W 1007 24
0000UTC 02.07.2019 84 10.5N 137.3W 1006 26
1200UTC 02.07.2019 96 10.9N 138.5W 1006 30
0000UTC 03.07.2019 108 11.2N 139.7W 1005 30
1200UTC 03.07.2019 120 11.2N 141.0W 1005 32
0000UTC 04.07.2019 132 11.1N 142.4W 1005 28
1200UTC 04.07.2019 144 10.9N 143.7W 1005 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 9.7N 99.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.07.2019 132 10.3N 100.8W 1003 32
1200UTC 04.07.2019 144 11.1N 103.8W 999 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281557

>

2019-06-28 14:59

WTPN31 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 117.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 117.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.1N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.0N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.6N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 117.9W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 846 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-28 14:40

WTPZ41 KNHC 281435 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2019

ALVIN CONTINUES TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND HAS
COMMENCED. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND THE
CENTER IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WITH
A BLENDED AVERAGE INDICATING A 55 KT INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY. ALVIN IS ALREADY OVER SSTS OF 24 C AND WILL MOVE OVER EVEN
COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KT IMPACTING THE
CIRCULATION, AND THIS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 30 KT IN 24
HOURS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH ALVIN MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED STEADY
WEAKENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.

ALVIN ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
305/14 KT. THIS FASTER MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY AND
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE CLUSTERING OF THE CONSENSUS
AIDS. ALVIN WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS NORTH THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER, A MUCH
WEAKER CYCLONE WILL BECOME STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 19.0N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

>

2019-06-28 14:39

WTPZ41 KNHC 281435
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
800 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Alvin continues to lose organization as a steady weakening trend has
commenced. The satellite presentation has become more ragged and the
center is now very close to the southwestern edge of the deep
convection. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, with
a blended average indicating a 55 kt initial intensity for this
advisory. Alvin is already over SSTs of 24 C and will move over even
cooler waters over the next 36 hours. In addition, the latest
guidance depicts southwesterly shear of 15 to 20 kt impacting the
circulation, and this is forecast to increase to over 30 kt in 24
hours. These factors, along with Alvin moving into an increasingly
stable atmospheric environment, will result in continued steady
weakening into this weekend. By Saturday night, Alvin is expected to
become devoid of deep convection, and the cyclone is forecast to
dissipate by Sunday.

Alvin accelerated slightly overnight, with an initial motion of
305/14 kt. This faster motion is expected to be only temporary and
the official track forecast is near the clustering of the consensus
aids. Alvin will be steered around the southwestern periphery of
mid-level ridging to its north through today. Thereafter, a much
weaker cyclone will become steered by the lower level environmental
flow, which will result in a turn to the west-northwest and decrease
in forward speed tonight into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 19.0N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 21.0N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 21.6N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven

>

2019-06-28 14:39

WTPZ31 KNHC 281434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2019

...ALVIN STEADILY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 117.7W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H) AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST, WITH ALVIN EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

>

2019-06-28 14:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 281433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
1500 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 117.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 117.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.6N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 117.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

>

2019-06-28 09:24

WTPN31 PHNC 281000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 115.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 115.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.2N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.3N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.9N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.3N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
281000Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 116.5W.
HURRICANE 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 909 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z, 290400Z AND 291000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-28 08:41

WTPZ41 KNHC 280836 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2019

ALVIN'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEGUN TO DEGRADE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS,
SUGGESTING THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO BECOME
LESS SYMMETRIC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE
STARTED TO DECREASE, AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS AHEAD OF THE STORM
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. SINCE ALVIN IS A SMALL CYCLONE, IT IS LIKELY TO SUFFER
FROM THE AFFECTS OF THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT MORE QUICKLY. AS A
RESULT, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER RATE OF
WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE STATISTICAL SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND
IS CLOSEST TO THE LATEST FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY AND IT
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/13 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALVIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE TURNING
MORE WESTWARD AND DECELERATING. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF

>

2019-06-28 08:41

WTPZ31 KNHC 280836
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2019

...ALVIN BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 116.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND ALVIN
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
SOON THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-06-28 08:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 280836
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
0900 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 116.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 116.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 119.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.9N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.3N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-06-28 08:40

WTPZ41 KNHC 280836
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
200 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Alvin's satellite presentation has begun to degrade overnight with
the overall cloud pattern becoming elongated from southwest to
northeast. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the center was located
within the southwestern portion of the main convective mass,
suggesting that southwesterly shear has caused the system to become
less symmetric. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB have
started to decrease, and a blend of the various satellite intensity
estimates yields an initial wind speed of 60 kt for this advisory.
Increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters ahead of the storm
are expected to cause rapid weakening during the next 24 to 36
hours. Since Alvin is a small cyclone, it is likely to suffer
from the affects of the hostile environment more quickly. As a
result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of
weakening than indicated by the statistical SHIPS/LGEM models and
is closest to the latest Florida State Superensemble. The cyclone
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday and it
should dissipate shortly thereafter.

The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. The track forecast
philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory. Alvin should
continue to move around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge
during the next couple of days, with the weakening cyclone turning
more westward and decelerating. The latest NHC track forecast is
near the various consensus aids and is essentially an update of
the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 18.0N 116.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 19.2N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 20.3N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 20.9N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 21.3N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-06-28 03:28

WTPN31 PHNC 280400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 114.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 114.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.7N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.1N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.9N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.5N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
280400Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 115.6W.
HURRICANE 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z, 282200Z AND 290400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-28 02:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 280232
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
800 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2019

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY, ALVIN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE THIS
EVENING. THE DIMINUTIVE SYSTEM IS EXHIBITING A RATHER SYMMETRIC
CDO WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION BURSTING NEAR THE CENTER. MICROWAVE
IMAGES SHOW A SMALL EYE ABOUT 10 N MI IN DIAMETER. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB, ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS, SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF
65 KT. ALVIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR VERY
LONG. WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SSTS BELOW 24 DEG C.
THESE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID
WEAKENING, AS SUPPORTED BY ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON
SATURDAY.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 305/14 KT.
ALVIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE LEFT AND DECELERATING. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 17.4N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.9N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 21.5N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-06-28 02:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 280231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
800 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2019

...ALVIN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2019 EAST PACIFIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 115.4W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALVIN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST. ALVIN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY. ALVIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
(75 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-06-28 02:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 280231
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
0300 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.4W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.4W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.9N 120.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 115.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-06-27 21:58

WTPN31 PHNC 272200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 113.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 113.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.7N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.3N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.3N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.9N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 114.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1008 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND
282200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-06-27 20:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 272032 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
300 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2019

A PAIR OF TIMELY ASCAT PASSES JUST BEFORE 1800 UTC INDICATE THAT
ALVIN HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE. MULTIPLE 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS
WERE PRESENT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE IN BOTH
PASSES. THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
55 KT SINCE THE ASCAT INSTRUMENT IS LIKELY UNDERSAMPLING THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THIS SMALL TROPICAL STORM.

MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE THAT ALVIN HAS REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY, HOWEVER, THE HWRF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT ALVIN COULD
STILL SQUEAK OUT A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 H
OR SO. WHILE I CAN'T RULE OUT THAT ALVIN COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER
TONIGHT, ITS WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY CLOSING SOON. THE
CYCLONE'S INFRARED CLOUD SIGNATURE HAS ALREADY TAKEN ON A SHEAR
PATTERN, AND GFS- AND ECMWF-BASED SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT THE
SHEAR SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 48 H. FURTHERMORE,
THE TROPICAL STORM IS QUICKLY APPROACHING COOLER WATERS. NEARLY ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW ALVIN DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
ABOUT 48 H AND DISSIPATING SOON THEREAFTER, AND THE NHC FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF ALVIN IS STILL 300/12 KT. NO CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO
CLOSELY FOLLOW HCCA AND TVCN. ALVIN SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL
HEADING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO, BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING
WESTWARD AS IT DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

2019-06-27 20:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 272032
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

A pair of timely ASCAT passes just before 1800 UTC indicate that
Alvin has strengthened a little more. Multiple 45-50 kt wind vectors
were present in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone in both
passes. The intensity of the tropical storm has been increased to
55 kt since the ASCAT instrument is likely undersampling the
strongest winds of this small tropical storm.

Most of the intensity models indicate that Alvin has reached its
peak intensity, however, the HWRF and GFS suggest that Alvin could
still squeak out a little more intensification during the next 12 h
or so. While I can't rule out that Alvin could get a little stronger
tonight, its window for strengthening is likely closing soon. The
cyclone's infrared cloud signature has already taken on a shear
pattern, and GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS diagnostics suggest that the
shear should steadily increase during the next 48 h. Furthermore,
the tropical storm is quickly approaching cooler waters. Nearly all
of the models show Alvin degenerating into a remnant low within
about 48 h and dissipating soon thereafter, and the NHC forecast
reflects this.

The initial motion of Alvin is still 300/12 kt. No changes of
significance were made to the NHC track forecast which continues to
closely follow HCCA and TVCN. Alvin should continue on this general
heading for another 24 hours or so, before gradually turning
westward as it degenerates into a remnant low over the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 16.6N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 17.7N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 19.3N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 20.3N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 20.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-06-27 20:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 272031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
300 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2019

...ALVIN A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 114.2W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT
ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL STORM
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE SOON THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-06-27 20:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 272031
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
2100 UTC THU JUN 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 114.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 114.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.7N 115.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.3N 118.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 119.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.9N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 114.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-06-27 15:59

WTNT82 EGRR 271558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.06.2019

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 112.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.06.2019 0 15.4N 112.7W 997 46
0000UTC 28.06.2019 12 16.7N 115.0W 996 45
1200UTC 28.06.2019 24 18.1N 117.0W 1002 36
0000UTC 29.06.2019 36 18.9N 118.6W 1007 27
1200UTC 29.06.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.2N 96.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.06.2019 60 10.2N 96.6W 1006 27
1200UTC 30.06.2019 72 11.1N 99.4W 1003 37
0000UTC 01.07.2019 84 11.9N 101.2W 999 38
1200UTC 01.07.2019 96 12.3N 102.2W 996 48
0000UTC 02.07.2019 108 12.2N 103.3W 998 43
1200UTC 02.07.2019 120 11.7N 104.1W 999 39
0000UTC 03.07.2019 132 11.1N 105.1W 997 37
1200UTC 03.07.2019 144 10.4N 106.4W 993 46

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.9N 119.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.07.2019 120 11.9N 119.8W 1007 24
0000UTC 03.07.2019 132 12.2N 121.6W 1007 25
1200UTC 03.07.2019 144 12.3N 123.5W 1005 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 10.0N 139.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.07.2019 144 10.0N 139.9W 1007 21


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271558

>

2019-06-27 15:59

WTNT80 EGRR 271558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.06.2019

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 112.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.06.2019 15.4N 112.7W MODERATE
00UTC 28.06.2019 16.7N 115.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2019 18.1N 117.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.06.2019 18.9N 118.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.06.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.2N 96.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.06.2019 10.2N 96.6W WEAK
12UTC 30.06.2019 11.1N 99.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.07.2019 11.9N 101.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.07.2019 12.3N 102.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.07.2019 12.2N 103.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2019 11.7N 104.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.07.2019 11.1N 105.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2019 10.4N 106.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.9N 119.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.07.2019 11.9N 119.8W WEAK
00UTC 03.07.2019 12.2N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2019 12.3N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 10.0N 139.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.07.2019 10.0N 139.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271558

>

2019-06-27 15:12

WTPN31 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 112.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 112.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.9N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.5N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.7N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.5N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 113.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1055 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-06-27 14:55

WTPZ41 KNHC 271450 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
900 AM MDT THU JUN 27 2019

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALVIN'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND A 1057 UTC SSMI
OVERPASS SHOWED A CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION AROUND THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER OF THE SMALL TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, THE INFRARED
PRESENTATION OF ALVIN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALSO UNCHANGED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 50 KT, IN DEFERENCE TO ASCAT
DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS (PRIMARILY THE HWRF, HMON, AND GFS) CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ALVIN COULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
BEFORE IT REACHES MUCH COLDER WATERS TO THE NORTH. ONCE THE TROPICAL
STORM REACHES THOSE WATERS IN A DAY OR SO, IT SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN,
LIKELY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AROUND OR JUST AFTER 48 H. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SMALL SIZE OF ALVIN COULD MAKE IT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT-TERM SWINGS OF INTENSITY, UP OR DOWN, AND ONCE
WEAKENING BEGINS IT COULD OCCUR EVEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, BUT
IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12 KT,
AND ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS IT

>

2019-06-27 14:54

WTPZ41 KNHC 271450
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Recent microwave imagery indicates that Alvin's convective structure
has improved over the past several hours, and a 1057 UTC SSMI
overpass showed a closed ring of convection around the mid-level
center of the small tropical storm. However, the infrared
presentation of Alvin has not changed significantly since the last
advisory and satellite intensity estimates are also unchanged. The
initial intensity is therefore held at 50 kt, in deference to ASCAT
data from late last night.

The dynamical models (primarily the HWRF, HMON, and GFS) continue to
indicate that Alvin could strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours
before it reaches much colder waters to the north. Once the tropical
storm reaches those waters in a day or so, it should quickly weaken,
likely becoming a remnant low around or just after 48 h. The NHC
intensity forecast has not been changed substantially since the
previous advisory and remains close to the intensity consensus aids.
It is worth noting that the small size of Alvin could make it
susceptible to short-term swings of intensity, up or down, and once
weakening begins it could occur even faster than currently
indicated.

The official track forecast has been nudged slightly northward, but
is otherwise unchanged. The initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt,
and Alvin is expected to continue to move west-northwestward or
westward at a similar forward speed for the next 24 to 36 hours.
After that time, the cyclone should turn toward the west as it
weakens and becomes steered by shallow easterly flow to the north
before it dissipates entirely. The NHC forecast closely follows the
HCCA and TVCN aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 15.8N 113.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.9N 114.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 18.5N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 20.5N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-06-27 14:54

WTPZ31 KNHC 271450
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...ALVIN HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 113.1W
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 113.1 West. Alvin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.
A turn toward the west is expected by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Weakening
is expected to begin on Friday and Alvin is forecast to become a
remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-06-27 14:54

WTPZ21 KNHC 271449
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
1500 UTC THU JUN 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 113.1W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 113.1W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N 114.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 120.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 113.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-06-27 09:20

WTPN31 PHNC 271000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 111.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 111.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.9N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.3N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.7N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.6N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 112.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1118 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND
281000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-27 08:51

WTPZ41 KNHC 270847 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
300 AM MDT THU JUN 27 2019

ALVIN'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS MUCH IMPROVED SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY, CONSISTING OF A SMALL BUT DISTINCT CDO WITH EXTREMELY
COLD OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS OF ABOUT -90C NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED
CENTER. OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL DUE TO THE LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE COMPACT CYCLONE. A 0435Z ASCAT-A PASS
REVEALED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTENDED 15-20 NMI
AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ALONG WITH ONE PEAK
WIND VECTOR OF 46 KT LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT NEAR THE
OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN ALVIN'S SMALL SIZE AND LIKELY
UNDERSAMPLING BY THE SCATTEROMETER INSTRUMENT, THE INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 50 KT, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION VECTOR OF 300/11 KT ARE BASED ON
ASCAT-A/-C SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES.
ALTHOUGH THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK, THERE OTHERWISE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND
THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS LIKEWISE BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD, BUT NOT QUITE
AS FAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS OUT OF THE RESPECT FOR THE LOWER
LATITUDE ECMWF AND FSSE MODELS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS

>

2019-06-27 08:51

WTPZ41 KNHC 270847
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Alvin's satellite presentation is much improved since this time
yesterday, consisting of a small but distinct CDO with extremely
cold overshooting cloud tops of about -90C near the well-defined
center. Outflow is fairly symmetrical due to the low vertical wind
shear conditions affecting the compact cyclone. A 0435Z ASCAT-A pass
revealed that tropical-storm-force winds only extended 15-20 nmi
away from the center in the northern semicircle along with one peak
wind vector of 46 kt located in the northwestern quadrant near the
overshooting cloud tops. Given Alvin's small size and likely
undersampling by the scatterometer instrument, the intensity is
raised to 50 kt, which is consistent with ADT and SATCON estimates.

The initial position and motion vector of 300/11 kt are based on
ASCAT-A/-C scatterometer wind data and passive microwave fixes.
Although the new track has been shifted north of the previous
advisory track, there otherwise are no significant changes to the
previous forecast track reasoning. Alvin is expected to move
steadily west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a
deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends westward from northwestern
Mexico. The latest track guidance has again shifted northward and
the new NHC track has likewise been shifted northward, but not quite
as far the consensus models out of the respect for the lower
latitude ECMWF and FSSE models.

Additional strengthening is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours
while Alvin remains over SSTs greater than 26 deg C and within a low
vertical wind shear regime. By 36 hours, however, the combination of
cooling SSTs and a more stable airmass is forecast to induce steady
to rapid weakening. Alvin is expected to degenerate into a remnant
low by late Saturday, and dissipate by Monday. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to a blend of the consensus models IVCN. HCCA,
and FSSE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 15.1N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.3N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.7N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 19.6N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 20.7N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-06-27 08:44

WTPZ31 KNHC 270840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
300 AM MDT THU JUN 27 2019

...TINY ALVIN STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 111.9W
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY, AND
ALVIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

ALVIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-06-27 08:44

WTPZ21 KNHC 270840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
0900 UTC THU JUN 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.9W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.9W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.3N 116.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.7N 118.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.6N 119.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-06-27 03:58

WTNT80 EGRR 270357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.06.2019

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 110.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.06.2019 14.2N 110.9W WEAK
12UTC 27.06.2019 15.5N 112.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2019 17.0N 114.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2019 18.5N 117.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.06.2019 19.4N 118.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.06.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 11.4N 99.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.06.2019 12.0N 101.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.07.2019 12.7N 103.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.07.2019 13.1N 104.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.07.2019 13.0N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2019 13.0N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.07.2019 12.8N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270357

>

2019-06-27 03:07

WTPN31 PHNC 270400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 110.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 110.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.0N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.0N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.0N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.0N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.3N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
270400Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 111.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1152 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z AND 280400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-27 02:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 270232 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
900 PM MDT WED JUN 26 2019

ALVIN'S PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED
CDO WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR/OVER THE CENTER, WITH VERY
LIMITED BANDING FEATURES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY DISTINCT
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BOOSTED SLIGHTLY, TO 45 KT, BASED ON DVORAK CI NUMBERS
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. ALVIN IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS SINCE IT SHOULD BE MOVING OVER
SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS, WITHIN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, AND IN A
MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND 24 HOURS,
COOLING SSTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A
WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE. ALL OF THE MODELS CALL FOR RAPID
WEAKENING IN 2 TO 3 DAYS, AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A SOUTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW WESTWARD
OR 270/11 KT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GENERAL
TRACK PREDICTION PHILOSOPHY. OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE, AND
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE,
BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS

>

2019-06-27 02:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 270232
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Alvin's presentation on satellite images consists of a well-defined
CDO with very cold cloud tops near/over the center, with very
limited banding features. Upper-level outflow is fairly distinct
over the western semicircle of the system. The current intensity
estimate is boosted slightly, to 45 kt, based on Dvorak CI numbers
from both TAFB and SAB. Alvin is likely to strengthen some more
during the next 12 to 24 hours since it should be moving over
sufficiently warm waters, within low vertical shear, and in a
modestly moist air mass for the next day or so. Beyond 24 hours,
cooling SSTs and gradually increasing shear should cause a
weakening trend to commence. All of the models call for rapid
weakening in 2 to 3 days, and the cyclone should degenerate into a
remnant low by Saturday. The official intensity forecast is a
little below the latest model consensus.

Recent center fixes indicate that there is no longer a southward
component of motion, and the initial motion estimate is now westward
or 270/11 kt. There have been no significant changes to the general
track prediction philosophy. Over the forecast period, the cyclone
is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
ridge extending westward from northwestern Mexico. Most of the
track guidance has shifted a little northward on this cycle, and
the new official forecast is slightly north of the previous one,
but a little south of the simple and corrected dynamical consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 14.4N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 15.0N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 19.3N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-06-27 02:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 270231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
900 PM MDT WED JUN 26 2019

...ALVIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 111.3W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY, AND
ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-06-27 02:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 270230
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
0300 UTC THU JUN 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 111.3W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 111.3W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 112.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-06-26 22:11

WTPN31 PHNC 262200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 108.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 108.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.7N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.0N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.7N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.4N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.4N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.0N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
261600Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 109.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1160 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262200Z, 270400Z, 271000Z AND
271600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-26 20:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 262031 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
300 PM MDT WED JUN 26 2019

ALVIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT SHOWED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING
ONLY ABOUT 30 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS
SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

ALVIN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 260/12 KT. THROUGH 24
HOURS, LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK, AS THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH
DISSIPATION. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36 HOURS, AND HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH DRY AIR HAS BEEN TRYING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE STORM'S
CIRCULATION TODAY, DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH
24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM SSTS IN A LOW-SHEAR
AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE FORECAST
TRACK TAKES ALVIN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER
AND HIGHER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY
WEAKENING, WITH THE CYCLONE LIKELY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72
HOURS, AND DISSIPATING BY 96 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR
A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS INTENSITY

>

2019-06-26 20:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 262031
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
300 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Alvin is a small tropical storm as indicated by a recent
scatterometer pass that showed tropical storm force winds extending
only about 30 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle. This
scatterometer data as well as an average of satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 40 kt.

Alvin has continued to move south of due west throughout the day,
and the initial motion estimate remains 260/12 kt. Through 24
hours, little change was made to the NHC forecast track, as the
cyclone is expected to move westward and then west-northwestward
around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge through
dissipation. The latest forecast track is on the southern edge of
the guidance envelope through 36 hours, and has been shifted a
little northward closer to the consensus aids from 48 to 72 hours.

Although dry air has been trying to entrain into the storm's
circulation today, deep convection continues to develop over the
center. Some additional strengthening is still expected through
24 hours as the cyclone moves over warm SSTs in a low-shear
and sufficiently moist environment. After 36 hours, the forecast
track takes Alvin over progressively cooler waters and into a drier
and higher-shear environment. This should result in steady
weakening, with the cyclone likely becoming a remnant low by 72
hours, and dissipating by 96 hours. The new NHC forecast is near or
a little below the latest dynamical and consensus intensity
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 14.3N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 14.3N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 15.0N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 16.0N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 17.1N 118.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 18.3N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brennan

>

2019-06-26 20:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 262031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
300 PM MDT WED JUN 26 2019

...ALVIN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 110.3W
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY, AND
ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/BRENNAN

>

2019-06-26 20:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 262030
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
2100 UTC WED JUN 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 110.3W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 110.3W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.3N 112.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.0N 116.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.1N 118.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.3N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 110.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/BRENNAN

>

2019-06-26 15:59

WTNT82 EGRR 261558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.06.2019

TROPICAL STORM 01E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 109.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.06.2019 0 14.8N 109.0W 1005 23
0000UTC 27.06.2019 12 14.5N 111.1W 1004 25
1200UTC 27.06.2019 24 14.8N 113.2W 1005 25
0000UTC 28.06.2019 36 15.2N 115.3W 1004 29
1200UTC 28.06.2019 48 15.7N 116.9W 1006 24
0000UTC 29.06.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 9.0N 96.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.06.2019 72 9.8N 98.3W 1005 30
0000UTC 30.06.2019 84 10.4N 102.1W 1005 29
1200UTC 30.06.2019 96 11.3N 105.7W 1005 29
0000UTC 01.07.2019 108 12.0N 109.5W 1004 31
1200UTC 01.07.2019 120 12.4N 112.9W 1006 26
0000UTC 02.07.2019 132 12.9N 115.6W 1006 26
1200UTC 02.07.2019 144 13.2N 118.0W 1006 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261558

>

2019-06-26 15:59

WTNT80 EGRR 261558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.06.2019

TROPICAL STORM 01E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 109.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.06.2019 14.8N 109.0W WEAK
00UTC 27.06.2019 14.5N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.06.2019 14.8N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2019 15.2N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2019 15.7N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.06.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 9.0N 96.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.06.2019 9.8N 98.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.06.2019 10.4N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2019 11.3N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.07.2019 12.0N 109.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.07.2019 12.4N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.07.2019 12.9N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2019 13.2N 118.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261558

>

2019-06-26 15:21

WTPN31 PHNC 261600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 108.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 108.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.7N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.0N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.7N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.4N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.4N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.0N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
261600Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 109.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1160 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262200Z, 270400Z, 271000Z AND
271600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-26 14:58

WTPZ41 KNHC 261453 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
900 AM MDT WED JUN 26 2019

VISIBLE AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, POSSIBLY DUE TO A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW EMBEDDED NEAR THE DEEPEST INNER-
CORE CONVECTION, AND SOME OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS EVIDENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB.
ALVIN'S FORMATION MARKS THE 3RD LATEST DATE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE FIRST NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN DURING THE
SATELLITE ERA (SINCE 1966).

ALVIN HAS TURNED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 260/12 KT. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK OVER THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD, IN LARGE PART DUE TO THE
MORE SOUTHERLY REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THIS, THE OVERALL
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

THERE REMAINS ABOUT A 24-36 HOUR WINDOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR OVER WARM SSTS IN A LOW-SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT, COMBINED WITH THE
IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE STORM, SUPPORTS RAISING THE INTENSITY
FORECAST A LITTLE IN THE NEAR TERM. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD

>

2019-06-26 14:57

WTPZ41 KNHC 261453
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Visible and passive microwave imagery this morning indicate that the
center of the tropical cyclone is located farther south than
previously estimated, possibly due to a reformation of the center.
The center of the cyclone is now embedded near the deepest inner-
core convection, and some overall improvement in the convective
pattern is evident. Satellite intensity estimates indicate that
the cyclone has reached tropical storm strength, and the initial
intensity of 35 kt is based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB.
Alvin's formation marks the 3rd latest date of the development of
the first named storm in the eastern Pacific basin during the
satellite era (since 1966).

Alvin has turned a little south of due west and the initial motion
estimate is 260/12 kt. The new NHC forecast track over the first
couple of days has been adjusted southward, in large part due to the
more southerly reformation of the center. Despite this, the overall
track forecast philosophy has not changed. Alvin is expected to move
westward and then west-northwestward with a gradual decrease in
forward speed over the next few days along the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge.

There remains about a 24-36 hour window for some additional
strengthening to occur over warm SSTs in a low-shear and
sufficiently moist environment. This environment, combined with the
improving structure of the storm, supports raising the intensity
forecast a little in the near term. The new NHC forecast is in good
agreement with the dynamical models and the intensity consensus.
After 36 hours, the forecast track takes Alvin over progressively
cooler waters and into a drier and higher-shear environment. This
should result in steady weakening, with the cyclone likely becoming
devoid of deep convection by 72 hours, and dissipating by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 14.7N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 14.7N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 15.0N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 15.7N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 16.4N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 17.4N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 18.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brennan

>

2019-06-26 14:54

WTPZ31 KNHC 261451
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
900 AM MDT WED JUN 26 2019

...ALVIN BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EAST PACIFIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 109.4W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY, AND ALVIN
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/BRENNAN

>

2019-06-26 14:52

WTPZ21 KNHC 261448
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
1500 UTC WED JUN 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.7N 111.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 113.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 115.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.4N 117.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.4N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/BRENNAN

>

2019-06-26 09:04

WTPN31 PHNC 261000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 107.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 107.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.6N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.8N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.4N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.0N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.1N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.8N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
261000Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 108.5W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1160 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-26 08:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 260834 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
300 AM MDT WED JUN 26 2019

THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER, PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND THAT
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME RAGGED. IN ADDITION, THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE MIGRATED FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO NOW
SOUTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, ANOTHER INDICATION
THAT THE INNER-CORE OF THE DEPRESSION IS UNDERGOING SOME STRUCTURAL
CHANGES. ALTHOUGH NO ASCAT WIND DATA ARE AVAILABLE OVER THE
CYCLONE'S CORE, A 0417Z ASCAT-C PASS DID CATCH THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION AND ONLY SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT WITHIN
30 NMI OF THE CENTER, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD
MIGHT NOT BE AS WELL DEVELOPED AS THE CIRCULATION ALOFT IS.

THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE 275/13-KT MOTION ARE BASED ON A BLEND
OF MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL FIXES, AND ALSO CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS MOTION VECTOR. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS STEADY TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL
POSITION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24 H. THAT IS A VIABLE ALTERNATE TRACK SCENARIO IF

>

2019-06-26 08:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 260834
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

The overall convective pattern of the cyclone has changed little
since the previous advisory. However, passive microwave images
indicate that the low-level center has become less distinct and that
the inner-core convection has become ragged. In addition, the
coldest cloud tops have migrated from north through east to now
south of the center during the past 12 hours, another indication
that the inner-core of the depression is undergoing some structural
changes. Although no ASCAT wind data are available over the
cyclone's core, a 0417Z ASCAT-C pass did catch the western portion
of the circulation and only showed northerly winds of 5-10 kt within
30 nmi of the center, which suggests that the surface wind field
might not be as well developed as the circulation aloft is.

The initial position and the 275/13-kt motion are based on a blend
of microwave and conventional fixes, and also continuity with the
previous motion vector. The latest track model guidance is in decent
agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motion accompanied by
a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next few days as a
strong deep-layer subtropical ridge holds steady to the north of the
cyclone. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but south of the
previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly initial
position. As mentioned in the previous forecast package, the 00Z
ECMWF model continues to show a more southward dip in the track
during the next 24 h. That is a viable alternate track scenario if
the center redevelops farther south closer to the coldest
overshooting cloud tops later this morning.

There is a narrow window of opportunity for the system to strengthen
into a tropical storm during the next 24 h or so while the cyclone
remains over warm water and in low vertical wind shear conditions.
By 36-48 hours, the cyclone is expected to move over sub-26C SSTs
and into a more stable environment that is not conducive for
generating vigorous convection despite the favorable low-shear
conditions forecast at that time. The combination of cooler waters,
drier mid-level air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear shear
are expected to induce steady weakening in 48-96 hours, with
dissipation forecast by 120 h. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and follows the IVCN and ICON
intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 15.5N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 15.6N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 16.4N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 17.0N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 18.1N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z 18.8N 123.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-06-26 08:37

WTPZ31 KNHC 260833
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
300 AM MDT WED JUN 26 2019

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 108.3W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-06-26 08:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 260833
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
0900 UTC WED JUN 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 108.3W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 108.3W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.6N 110.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.4N 114.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.0N 116.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.1N 120.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 18.8N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 108.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-06-26 03:38

WTPN31 PHNC 260400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 106.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 106.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.9N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.8N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.6N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.4N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260400Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 107.1W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1190 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND
270400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-06-26 02:42

WTPZ41 KNHC 260237 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
900 PM MDT TUE JUN 25 2019

THE CYCLONE HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER FRAGMENTED AT THIS TIME,
HOWEVER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INNER
CIRCULATION STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN
ACCORD WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOPEFULLY, WE WILL
SOON OBTAIN A SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER
SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS AND WITHIN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THEREFORE SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL AROUND
THE 36 HOURS TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER, INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR, COOLER WATERS, AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
PREDICTION.

BASED ON MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE CENTER FIXES, A
FAIRLY BRISK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION, AT ABOUT 290/13 KT,
CONTINUES. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY
SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE,
AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SIMPLE AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A TRACK AT A MORE
SOUTHERN LATITUDE, BUT THAT MODEL'S PREDICTION OF THE CYCLONE'S

>

2019-06-26 02:41

WTPZ41 KNHC 260237
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The cyclone has not yet acquired well-defined convective banding
features and the deep convection is rather fragmented at this time,
however microwave imagery shows a fairly well-defined inner
circulation structure. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in
accord with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Hopefully, we will
soon obtain a scatterometer overpass to provide a better estimate of
the intensity of the system. The cyclone should move over
sufficiently warm waters and within low vertical shear over the next
day or so. Therefore some strengthening is forecast until around
the 36 hours time frame. Thereafter, increasing south-southwesterly
shear, cooler waters, and drier mid-level air should induce
weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and very close to the latest model consensus
prediction.

Based on microwave and geostationary satellite center fixes, a
fairly brisk west-northwestward motion, at about 290/13 kt,
continues. The primary steering mechanism for the next couple of
days will be a mid-level ridge extending westward from northwestern
Mexico into the Pacific. The tropical cyclone should gradually
slow its forward speed as it nears the western periphery of the
ridge. The official track forecast is close to the previous one,
and is in agreement with the latest simple and corrected dynamical
model consensus solutions. The ECMWF model shows a track at a more
southern latitude, but that model's prediction of the cyclone's
evolution seems to be unrealistically weak.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 15.6N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 15.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 16.3N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 16.8N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 18.6N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-06-26 02:40

WTPZ31 KNHC 260235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
900 PM MDT TUE JUN 25 2019

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 106.8W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H)
AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-06-26 02:40

WTPZ21 KNHC 260235
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
0300 UTC WED JUN 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.8W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 106.8W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.9N 108.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.3N 111.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 119.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-06-25 21:45

WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 105.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 105.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.8N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.2N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.4N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.5N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.8N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 105.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-06-25 20:40

WTPZ41 KNHC 252036 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2019

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WELL ORGANIZED TODAY,
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS, ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON THE FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2019
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 AND 1.5 RESPECTIVELY, AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED HAS BEEN SET AT 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A LOW WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE, MODEST STRENGTHENING
IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND THE NHC FOREAST
FOLLOWS SUIT. AFTER 48 HOURS, INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
AND COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING, AND THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13 KT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THERE IS SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW MUCH LATITUDE
THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF WHICH DOES
NOT DEEPEN THE SYSTEM MUCH, IF AT ALL, SHOWS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK
THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AND SHOWS A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL

>

2019-06-25 20:40

WTPZ41 KNHC 252036
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Convection associated with the area of low pressure located south of
the coast of Mexico has become sufficiently well organized today,
and visible satellite imagery suggest that the system has acquired a
well-defined center. Based on these observations, advisories are
being initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2019
eastern Pacific hurricane season. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 1.5 respectively, and the initial wind
speed has been set at 25 kt. The depression is forecast to remain
over warm sea surface temperatures and within a low wind shear
environment during the next couple of days. Although there is some
dry mid-level air to the west of the cyclone, modest strengthening
is indicated by most of the intensity guidance, and the NHC foreast
follows suit. After 48 hours, increasing south-southwesterly shear
and cooler waters are expected to cause weakening, and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. A
mid-level ridge extending from northwestern Mexico into the eastern
Pacific should steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next
few days. There is spread in the guidance as to how much latitude
the system will gain over the next few days. The ECMWF which does
not deepen the system much, if at all, shows a more southern track
than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC forecast assumes that
the system will strengthen some and shows a more climatological
west-northwestward track close to the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 15.2N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 17.4N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.5N 119.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 18.8N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-06-25 20:39

WTPZ31 KNHC 252035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2019

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2019 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON FORMS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 105.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...960 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H)
AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON
THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-06-25 20:38

WTPZ21 KNHC 252034
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
2100 UTC TUE JUN 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 105.7W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 105.7W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N 113.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.5N 119.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.8N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

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