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Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIA-18
in China, Japanfrom 02 Jul 2018 18:00 UTC to 11 Jul 2018 00:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone MARIA-18
Beta
alertimage

Orange alert for storm surge impact in China

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 34 of tropical cyclone MARIA-18 issued at 11 Jul 2018 0:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000466).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 25.4 million
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 5
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 259 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  2.5m in Songcheng, China. This height is estimated for 11 Jul 2018 01:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

Show forecast grid

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Jul 2018 01:00:00 Songcheng China  2.5m
11 Jul 2018 01:00:00 Hanjiang China  2.5m
11 Jul 2018 01:00:00 Wuqu China  2.5m
11 Jul 2018 01:00:00 Xiahu China  2.3m
11 Jul 2018 00:00:00 Changchun China  2.3m
11 Jul 2018 00:00:00 Yacheng China  2.3m
11 Jul 2018 00:00:00 Sansha China  2.1m
11 Jul 2018 01:00:00 Luxia China  1.9m
11 Jul 2018 01:00:00 Huang-ch'i China  1.8m
11 Jul 2018 00:00:00 Shacheng China  1.8m
11 Jul 2018 01:00:00 Gexiang China  1.7m
11 Jul 2018 02:00:00 Xinan China  1.7m
11 Jul 2018 01:00:00 Mabi China  1.6m
11 Jul 2018 02:00:00 Xiaodoumen China  1.6m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 432)
Calculation based on advisory number 34 of 11 Jul 2018 00:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.