GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BUD-18
in Mexicofrom 09 Jun 2018 21:00 UTC to 13 Jun 2018 15:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone BUD-18
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Green alert for storm surge impact in Mexico

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 16 of tropical cyclone BUD-18 issued at 13 Jun 2018 15:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000458).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): No people affected
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 4
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 213 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in El Aquajito, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15 Jun 2018 21:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Show forecast grid

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Jun 2018 21:00:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2m
15 Jun 2018 03:00:00 El Tule Mexico  0.1m
15 Jun 2018 12:00:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1m
15 Jun 2018 11:00:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1m
15 Jun 2018 10:00:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1m
16 Jun 2018 00:00:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1m
15 Jun 2018 04:00:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1m
15 Jun 2018 10:00:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1m
15 Jun 2018 12:00:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1m
16 Jun 2018 00:00:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1m
15 Jun 2018 20:00:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1m
16 Jun 2018 03:00:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1m
15 Jun 2018 20:00:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1m
15 Jun 2018 12:00:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 29)
Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 13 Jun 2018 15:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.