Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NORBERT-20
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORBERT-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 144 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (09 Oct 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 61 km/h 0.2 m 79 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 144 km/h 0.3 m 656 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico123
+
United States14 
Mexico109 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Oct 2020 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Oct 2020 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Oct 2020 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 06 Oct 2020 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 06 Oct 2020 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Oct 2020 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Oct 2020 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 07 Oct 2020 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 07 Oct 2020 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Oct 2020 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 08 Oct 2020 06:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 08 Oct 2020 12:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 08 Oct 2020 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 09 Oct 2020 00:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 09 Oct 2020 06:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 09 Oct 2020 12:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 09 Oct 2020 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 10 Oct 2020 00:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 10 Oct 2020 06:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 10 Oct 2020 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 10 Oct 2020 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 11 Oct 2020 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 11 Oct 2020 06:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 11 Oct 2020 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 11 Oct 2020 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 12 Oct 2020 00:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 12 Oct 2020 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 12 Oct 2020 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 12 Oct 2020 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 13 Oct 2020 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 31 13 Oct 2020 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 32 13 Oct 2020 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 33 13 Oct 2020 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 34 14 Oct 2020 00:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 35 14 Oct 2020 06:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 36 14 Oct 2020 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 37 14 Oct 2020 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 38 15 Oct 2020 00:00 61 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

656 mm

Up to 300 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico302249 
50-100 mmMexico7122973 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Oct 2020 18:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Oct 2020 00:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 06 Oct 2020 06:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 06 Oct 2020 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 06 Oct 2020 18:00 143 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 07 Oct 2020 00:00 100 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 07 Oct 2020 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 07 Oct 2020 12:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 07 Oct 2020 18:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Oct 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 08 Oct 2020 06:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 08 Oct 2020 12:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 08 Oct 2020 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 09 Oct 2020 00:00 109 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 09 Oct 2020 06:00 31 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 09 Oct 2020 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 09 Oct 2020 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 10 Oct 2020 00:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 10 Oct 2020 06:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 10 Oct 2020 12:00 175 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 10 Oct 2020 18:00 69 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 11 Oct 2020 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 11 Oct 2020 06:00 89 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 11 Oct 2020 12:00 120 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 11 Oct 2020 18:00 78 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 12 Oct 2020 00:00 69 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 12 Oct 2020 06:00 39 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 12 Oct 2020 12:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 12 Oct 2020 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 13 Oct 2020 00:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 13 Oct 2020 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 13 Oct 2020 12:00 81 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 13 Oct 2020 18:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 34 14 Oct 2020 00:00 193 - - - - - - -
Blue 35 14 Oct 2020 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 36 14 Oct 2020 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
Blue 37 14 Oct 2020 18:00 14 - - - - - - -
Blue 38 15 Oct 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 09 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Oct 2020 00:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
06 Oct 2020 01:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 23:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 05:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 23:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 05:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 00:45 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 09:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2020 09:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2020 06:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 18:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
06 Oct 2020 02:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
06 Oct 2020 02:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
06 Oct 2020 02:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2020 08:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2020 03:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2020 22:45 Novillero Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2020 22:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
09 Oct 2020 05:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2020 22:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2020 22:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2020 22:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2020 01:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2020 23:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
15 Oct 2020 04:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2020 00:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 04:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 04:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 04:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link