Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NORBERT-20
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORBERT-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (17 Oct 22:45 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 50 km/h 0.2 m 394 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 76 km/h 0.2 m 749 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

76 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Oct 2020 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Oct 2020 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Oct 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 06 Oct 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Oct 2020 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Oct 2020 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Oct 2020 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Oct 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Oct 2020 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 09 Oct 2020 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 10 Oct 2020 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 10 Oct 2020 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 11 Oct 2020 00:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 11 Oct 2020 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Oct 2020 00:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 12 Oct 2020 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Oct 2020 00:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 13 Oct 2020 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 14 Oct 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 14 Oct 2020 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 15 Oct 2020 00:00 50 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico25080 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Oct 2020 00:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Oct 2020 12:00 243 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 06 Oct 2020 00:00 290 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 06 Oct 2020 12:00 224 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Oct 2020 00:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 07 Oct 2020 12:00 456 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 08 Oct 2020 00:00 249 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Oct 2020 12:00 361 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 09 Oct 2020 00:00 217 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 09 Oct 2020 12:00 216 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 10 Oct 2020 00:00 231 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 10 Oct 2020 12:00 375 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 11 Oct 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 11 Oct 2020 12:00 373 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Oct 2020 00:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 12 Oct 2020 12:00 322 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 13 Oct 2020 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 13 Oct 2020 12:00 269 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 14 Oct 2020 00:00 225 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 14 Oct 2020 12:00 167 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 15 Oct 2020 00:00 394 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Tecomate, Mexico. This height is estimated for 17 Oct 2020 22:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 Oct 2020 22:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
17 Oct 2020 22:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
16 Oct 2020 14:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
16 Oct 2020 14:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 14:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 14:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 14:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 14:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
15 Oct 2020 09:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 02:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 02:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 02:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
15 Oct 2020 09:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 15:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
15 Oct 2020 01:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 01:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 02:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
15 Oct 2020 07:30 La Choya Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 15:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 14:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2020 12:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link