Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Oct 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 86 km/h 0.4 m 685 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 155 km/h 0.5 m 931 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

155 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 07 Oct 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 28 Sep 2020 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 29 Sep 2020 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 29 Sep 2020 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 30 Sep 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 30 Sep 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Oct 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 01 Oct 2020 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 02 Oct 2020 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 02 Oct 2020 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 03 Oct 2020 00:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Oct 2020 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 04 Oct 2020 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 04 Oct 2020 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 05 Oct 2020 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 05 Oct 2020 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 06 Oct 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 06 Oct 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 07 Oct 2020 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 07 Oct 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Oct 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico14496 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 28 Sep 2020 12:00 258 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 29 Sep 2020 00:00 250 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 29 Sep 2020 12:00 278 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 30 Sep 2020 00:00 258 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 30 Sep 2020 12:00 347 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Oct 2020 00:00 530 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 01 Oct 2020 12:00 346 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 02 Oct 2020 00:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 02 Oct 2020 12:00 246 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 03 Oct 2020 00:00 227 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Oct 2020 12:00 290 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 04 Oct 2020 00:00 204 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 04 Oct 2020 12:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 05 Oct 2020 00:00 320 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 05 Oct 2020 12:00 325 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 06 Oct 2020 00:00 288 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 06 Oct 2020 12:00 268 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 07 Oct 2020 00:00 258 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 07 Oct 2020 12:00 685 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Cabo Tepoca, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Oct 2020 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Oct 2020 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Oct 2020 11:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.4
10 Oct 2020 10:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.4
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.3
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.3
10 Oct 2020 10:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.3
10 Oct 2020 10:15 El Barril Mexico  0.3
09 Oct 2020 16:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.3
10 Oct 2020 09:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.3
08 Oct 2020 06:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.3
08 Oct 2020 06:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.3
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.3
10 Oct 2020 10:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.3
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 09:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:30 Empalme Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:30 Mulege Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 06:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 06:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 06:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Los Dolores Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:00 San Jose Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Loreto Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 21:15 Datilito Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 21:15 La Paz Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 21:15 Rosario Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 09:45 Liliba Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 06:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 06:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 00:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 00:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 14:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 04:15 Monteon Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 04:15 La Lima Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Marmol Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Florida Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 18:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 18:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Ligui Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Tripui Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 10:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 10:45 Quinones Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 12:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 22:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 22:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 23:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 23:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 23:45 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Tambobiche Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 17:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 22:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 20:30 Estrecho Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 20:30 Santiago Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 20:30 Manzanillo Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 00:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 17:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:45 La Boca Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 18:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 18:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 23:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 00:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 15:45 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 15:45 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 18:45 Pizota Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 20:15 La Florida Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 23:30 Dimas Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 23:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 23:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 18:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 01:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 08:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 08:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 18:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 03:45 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 17:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 17:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 17:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 21:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 09:45 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 09:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 09:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 09:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 09:45 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 21:30 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 23:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 22:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 12:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2020 10:45 Barron Mexico  0.1
09 Oct 2020 10:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
09 Oct 2020 10:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
09 Oct 2020 10:00 Cunano Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2020 05:45 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
09 Oct 2020 10:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 23:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 18:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 21:30 Chamela Mexico  0.1
09 Oct 2020 04:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2020 07:15 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 18:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 18:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 18:00 Apisa Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 18:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 18:00 San Telmo Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 18:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
09 Oct 2020 22:00 El Tule Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2020 17:30 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2020 00:00 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1
09 Oct 2020 23:00 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
09 Oct 2020 21:45 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
09 Oct 2020 21:45 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2020 20:30 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2020 05:15 Corrales Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2020 05:15 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2020 05:15 Ipala Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 17:45 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 18:00 Bucerias Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link