Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KIKO-19
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KIKO-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 162 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.5 m (14 Sep 07:15 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 162 km/h 0.5 m 975 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 162 km/h 2.5 m 975 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico227 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 12 Sep 2019 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 12 Sep 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 13 Sep 2019 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 13 Sep 2019 06:00 90 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 5 13 Sep 2019 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 6 13 Sep 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 14 Sep 2019 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 14 Sep 2019 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 14 Sep 2019 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 14 Sep 2019 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 15 Sep 2019 00:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 15 Sep 2019 06:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 15 Sep 2019 12:00 209 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 15 Sep 2019 18:00 212 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 16 Sep 2019 00:00 212 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 16 Sep 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 16 Sep 2019 12:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 16 Sep 2019 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 17 Sep 2019 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 17 Sep 2019 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 17 Sep 2019 12:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 17 Sep 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

379 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico227 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 12 Sep 2019 12:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 12 Sep 2019 18:00 292 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 13 Sep 2019 00:00 193 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 13 Sep 2019 06:00 153 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 13 Sep 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 13 Sep 2019 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 14 Sep 2019 00:00 88 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 14 Sep 2019 06:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 14 Sep 2019 12:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 14 Sep 2019 18:00 110 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 15 Sep 2019 00:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 15 Sep 2019 06:00 341 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 15 Sep 2019 12:00 394 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 15 Sep 2019 18:00 379 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 16 Sep 2019 00:00 503 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 16 Sep 2019 06:00 346 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 16 Sep 2019 12:00 361 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 16 Sep 2019 18:00 332 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 17 Sep 2019 00:00 254 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 17 Sep 2019 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 17 Sep 2019 12:00 225 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 17 Sep 2019 18:00 975 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.5m in San Francisco, Mexico. This height is estimated for 14 Sep 2019 07:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Sep 2019 07:15 San Francisco Mexico  2.5
14 Sep 2019 07:15 Monteon Mexico  2.5
14 Sep 2019 07:15 La Lima Mexico  2.5
14 Sep 2019 07:15 Cuamecate Mexico  2.4
14 Sep 2019 07:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  2.4
14 Sep 2019 07:15 El Nuevo Mexico  2.4
14 Sep 2019 07:30 San Blas Mexico  2.0
14 Sep 2019 07:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  2.0
14 Sep 2019 07:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  1.6
14 Sep 2019 06:45 Punta Mita Mexico  1.5
14 Sep 2019 06:45 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  1.5
14 Sep 2019 07:45 Novillero Mexico  1.5
14 Sep 2019 08:00 Cuantla Mexico  1.5
14 Sep 2019 07:00 La Palmita Mexico  1.4
14 Sep 2019 07:00 Caimanero Mexico  1.4
14 Sep 2019 07:00 Jarilla Mexico  1.4
14 Sep 2019 07:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  1.4
14 Sep 2019 07:45 La Puerta Mexico  1.3
14 Sep 2019 06:45 Pizota Mexico  1.1
14 Sep 2019 06:45 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  1.0
14 Sep 2019 06:45 Corrales Mexico  0.9
14 Sep 2019 06:45 Florida Mexico  0.9
14 Sep 2019 06:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.9
14 Sep 2019 08:45 Datilito Mexico  0.9
14 Sep 2019 08:45 La Paz Mexico  0.9
14 Sep 2019 08:45 Rosario Mexico  0.9
14 Sep 2019 07:00 Barron Mexico  0.9
14 Sep 2019 12:45 Dimas Mexico  0.8
14 Sep 2019 08:15 Tripui Mexico  0.8
14 Sep 2019 08:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.8
14 Sep 2019 21:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.8
14 Sep 2019 07:00 Marmol Mexico  0.8
14 Sep 2019 20:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.8
14 Sep 2019 20:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.8
14 Sep 2019 07:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.8
14 Sep 2019 07:00 Ipala Mexico  0.8
14 Sep 2019 13:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.8
16 Sep 2019 03:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.8
14 Sep 2019 00:30 Chamela Mexico  0.7
14 Sep 2019 00:30 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.7
14 Sep 2019 17:30 Los Burros Mexico  0.7
15 Sep 2019 15:30 La Florida Mexico  0.7
15 Sep 2019 15:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.7
14 Sep 2019 08:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.7
16 Sep 2019 03:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.7
14 Sep 2019 12:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.7
14 Sep 2019 12:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.7
14 Sep 2019 12:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.7
14 Sep 2019 12:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.7
14 Sep 2019 08:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.7
14 Sep 2019 08:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.7
14 Sep 2019 08:30 La Boca Mexico  0.7
14 Sep 2019 09:45 Quinones Mexico  0.7
15 Sep 2019 06:45 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.7
14 Sep 2019 08:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 09:45 Loreto Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 09:45 Ligui Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 22:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 17:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 07:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 07:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 08:15 Santa Marta Mexico  0.6
15 Sep 2019 21:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 08:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 08:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 08:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 08:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 00:30 Chola Mexico  0.6
15 Sep 2019 01:00 El Real Mexico  0.6
15 Sep 2019 01:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 10:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.6
14 Sep 2019 10:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.6
15 Sep 2019 03:45 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.5
17 Sep 2019 01:15 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 19:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 07:45 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 07:45 El Tomale Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 07:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.5
15 Sep 2019 20:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.5
15 Sep 2019 20:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 15:45 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 07:45 Cunano Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 09:15 Altata Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 19:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 07:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 13:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 00:30 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 08:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.5
15 Sep 2019 04:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 07:45 Las Palmas Mexico  0.5
14 Sep 2019 07:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.5
13 Sep 2019 18:15 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.4
14 Sep 2019 09:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.4
13 Sep 2019 18:15 Estrecho Mexico  0.4
14 Sep 2019 19:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.4
14 Sep 2019 19:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.4
14 Sep 2019 18:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.4
14 Sep 2019 18:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.4
14 Sep 2019 00:30 Santiago Mexico  0.4
14 Sep 2019 00:30 Manzanillo Mexico  0.4
14 Sep 2019 00:45 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.4
14 Sep 2019 00:45 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.4
15 Sep 2019 12:15 San Jose Mexico  0.3
15 Sep 2019 12:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.3
14 Sep 2019 08:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.3
14 Sep 2019 07:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
14 Sep 2019 07:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.3
14 Sep 2019 07:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.3
15 Sep 2019 11:45 El Aquajito Mexico  0.3
15 Sep 2019 12:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.3
14 Sep 2019 07:30 Mulege Mexico  0.3
14 Sep 2019 07:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.3
20 Sep 2019 08:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.3
15 Sep 2019 12:15 Liliba Mexico  0.3
14 Sep 2019 07:30 Todos Santos Mexico  0.3
14 Sep 2019 09:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.3
19 Sep 2019 19:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.3
16 Sep 2019 02:45 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
15 Sep 2019 10:15 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 07:30 El Tule Mexico  0.2
15 Sep 2019 03:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.2

Calculation folder at this link