Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LILI-19
in Timor-Leste, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LILI-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Indonesia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (11 May 01:30 UTC)
Vulnerability -- (Timor-Leste)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 43 km/h 0.3 m 264 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 90 km/h 0.4 m 524 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 May 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndonesia21268 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 May 2019 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 May 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 May 2019 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 May 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 May 2019 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 May 2019 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 May 2019 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 May 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 May 2019 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 May 2019 12:00 43 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 May 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndonesia5255 
100-250 mmIndonesia134360 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia1635738
+
Indonesia1593958 
Timor-Leste41775 
Australia5 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 May 2019 06:00 587 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 May 2019 12:00 676 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 May 2019 18:00 486 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 May 2019 00:00 338 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 May 2019 06:00 302 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 May 2019 12:00 330 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 May 2019 18:00 326 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 May 2019 00:00 308 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 May 2019 06:00 285 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 May 2019 12:00 264 20 thousand
- - - Indonesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Wickham, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 May 2019 01:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 May 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 May 2019 01:30 Wickham Australia  0.4
11 May 2019 01:30 Point Samson Australia  0.4
11 May 2019 01:30 Cossack Australia  0.4
11 May 2019 02:45 Mardie Australia  0.3
10 May 2019 06:00 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 06:00 Sawarangan Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 08:45 Sembelimbingan Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 08:45 Berangas Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 08:45 Soengaibali Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 05:30 Batakam Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 08:00 Dampier Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 08:00 Karratha Australia  0.2
10 May 2019 09:00 Langadai Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 07:00 Boenati Indonesia  0.2
14 May 2019 10:00 Derby Australia  0.2
10 May 2019 04:30 Pagatan Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 04:30 Pematangdoerian Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 04:30 Semisir Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 04:30 Tandjungserdang Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 04:30 Salinau Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 10:30 The Palms Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 10:30 Larrakeyah Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 10:30 Fannie Bay Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 10:30 Parap Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 10:30 Darwin Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 10:30 Nightcliff Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 10:30 Ludmilla Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 10:30 Bagot Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 10:30 Knuckeys Lagoon Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 10:30 Berrimah Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 10:30 Leanyer Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 01:15 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
10 May 2019 08:00 Semaras Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 06:15 Kollan I Australia  0.2
14 May 2019 07:45 Port Hedland Australia  0.2
14 May 2019 07:45 Wedgefield Australia  0.2
10 May 2019 06:45 Tapianbalai Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 07:00 Tungkaranasam Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 07:00 Sekapoeng Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 06:45 Okaoka Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 07:00 Teloekkapalpetjah Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 06:30 Pender Australia  0.2
09 May 2019 17:00 Longar Indonesia  0.2
09 May 2019 17:00 Baimoeh Indonesia  0.2
09 May 2019 17:00 Gomo Gomo Indonesia  0.2
09 May 2019 17:00 Masian Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 08:30 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
09 May 2019 21:30 Gribble Settlement Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 08:30 Broome Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 08:30 Thangoo Australia  0.1
11 May 2019 07:00 Condon Australia  0.1
11 May 2019 06:15 Pardoo Australia  0.1
14 May 2019 09:30 Waterbank Australia  0.1
14 May 2019 09:15 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.1
09 May 2019 15:45 Oud Krai Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 15:45 Krei-lama Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 15:45 Krai Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Tioro Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Kembano Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Tampo Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Mabodo Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Raha Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Bonea Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Lohia Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Koroni Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Wakarumba Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Lebo Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Nunu Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Boeboe Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Ronta Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Latambela Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Napabalana Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 09:45 Petjatu Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 09:45 Seseh Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 09:45 Kuta Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 09:45 Djimbaran Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 09:45 Boealoe Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 09:45 Benua Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 09:45 Denpasar Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 09:45 Sukawati Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 04:45 Mirobia Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 04:45 Ibonma Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 04:45 Namasan Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 04:45 Utarom Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 16:45 Bangbong Indonesia  0.1
14 May 2019 00:45 Minjilang Australia  0.1

Calculation folder at this link