Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LILI-19
in Timor-Leste, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LILI-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Indonesia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (10 May 05:30 UTC)
Vulnerability -- (Timor-Leste)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 43 km/h 0.3 m 372 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 79 km/h 0.3 m 517 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

79 km/h

Up to 30 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 May 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndonesia28524 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 08 May 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 May 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 May 2019 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 May 2019 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 May 2019 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 May 2019 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 May 2019 12:00 43 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 May 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste159900
+
Indonesia51118 
Timor-Leste108782 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste562456
+
Indonesia259334 
Other countries1034 
Timor-Leste302088 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste1193345
+
Indonesia811376 
Other countries4070 
Timor-Leste377899 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 08 May 2019 12:00 523 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 May 2019 00:00 752 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 May 2019 12:00 791 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 May 2019 00:00 393 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 May 2019 12:00 264 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 May 2019 00:00 202 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 May 2019 12:00 372 290 thousand
- - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Other countries




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Wickham, Australia. This height is estimated for 10 May 2019 05:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 May 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 May 2019 05:30 Wickham Australia  0.3
10 May 2019 05:30 Point Samson Australia  0.3
10 May 2019 05:30 Cossack Australia  0.3
10 May 2019 04:15 Pagatan Indonesia  0.3
10 May 2019 04:15 Pematangdoerian Indonesia  0.3
10 May 2019 04:15 Semisir Indonesia  0.3
10 May 2019 04:15 Tandjungserdang Indonesia  0.3
10 May 2019 04:15 Salinau Indonesia  0.3
13 May 2019 04:30 Semaras Indonesia  0.3
10 May 2019 03:30 Boenati Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 09:45 Derby Australia  0.2
08 May 2019 20:30 Siota Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 20:30 Klis Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 20:30 Toenwawang Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 20:30 Moanga Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 20:30 Letoda Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 20:30 Keti Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 20:30 Sera Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 03:15 Sawarangan Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 03:15 Batakam Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 03:15 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
13 May 2019 04:30 Tapianbalai Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 03:30 Mardie Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 18:15 Kollan I Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 11:15 The Palms Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 11:15 Larrakeyah Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 11:15 Fannie Bay Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 11:15 Parap Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 11:15 Darwin Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 11:15 Nightcliff Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 11:15 Ludmilla Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 11:15 Bagot Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 11:15 Knuckeys Lagoon Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 11:15 Berrimah Australia  0.2
10 May 2019 06:45 Dampier Australia  0.2
10 May 2019 06:45 Karratha Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 11:15 Leanyer Australia  0.2
09 May 2019 01:45 Tandjung Tudpateh Indonesia  0.2
09 May 2019 01:45 Noewewan Indonesia  0.2
09 May 2019 01:45 Serwaru Indonesia  0.2
09 May 2019 01:45 Luhulele Indonesia  0.2
09 May 2019 01:45 Wakarleli Indonesia  0.2
09 May 2019 01:45 Kaiwatu Indonesia  0.2
09 May 2019 01:45 Patti Indonesia  0.2
13 May 2019 03:45 Okaoka Indonesia  0.2
12 May 2019 17:00 Pender Australia  0.2
10 May 2019 05:00 Gribble Settlement Australia  0.2
08 May 2019 16:00 Liwuto Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 16:00 Tamboeloeroeha Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 16:00 Tampara Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 16:00 Ambeua Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 02:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
08 May 2019 16:30 Nunu Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 16:30 Kambawogen Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 16:30 Boeboe Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 16:30 Ronta Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 16:30 Latambela Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 16:30 Latambera Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 16:30 Ereka Indonesia  0.2
08 May 2019 16:30 Rombo Indonesia  0.2
13 May 2019 03:45 Teloekkapalpetjah Indonesia  0.2
12 May 2019 05:00 Port Hedland Australia  0.1
12 May 2019 05:00 Wedgefield Australia  0.1
11 May 2019 04:15 Langadai Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 03:45 Sembelimbingan Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 03:45 Berangas Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 03:45 Soengaibali Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 19:45 Baja Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 18:30 Jarona Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 18:30 Karufa Kembala Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 18:30 Mirobia Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 21:00 Longar Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 21:00 Baimoeh Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 21:00 Gomo Gomo Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 21:00 Masian Indonesia  0.1
13 May 2019 07:00 Broome Australia  0.1
13 May 2019 07:00 Thangoo Australia  0.1
14 May 2019 12:00 East Lewis I Australia  0.1
08 May 2019 16:45 Meatil Miarang Indonesia  0.1
12 May 2019 14:45 Tungkaranasam Indonesia  0.1
12 May 2019 14:45 Sekapoeng Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 08:30 Bahomia Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 08:30 Maiwawa Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 08:30 Djokdjoh Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 08:30 Namasan Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 08:30 Utarom Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 08:30 Kaimana Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 08:30 Moearona Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 20:45 Lolotuara Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 20:45 Polau Lakor Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 21:00 Kilbawar Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 21:00 Waru Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 21:00 Kufar Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 18:45 Matarape Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 08:45 Ibonma Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 23:15 Benteng Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 23:15 Kajuangin Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 23:15 Pekangkang Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 23:15 Udjung Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 16:15 Supe Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 16:15 Asaoede Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 23:45 Haria Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 23:45 Saparua Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 23:45 Latu Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 23:45 Nolot Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 18:30 Belalo Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 18:30 Kokapi Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 01:00 Oud Krai Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 01:00 Krei-lama Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 01:00 Krai Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 13:45 Minjilang Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 06:30 Molawe Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 06:30 Taponggaja Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 02:30 Petjatu Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 02:30 Seseh Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 02:30 Kuta Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 02:30 Djimbaran Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 02:30 Boealoe Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 02:30 Benua Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 02:30 Denpasar Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 02:30 Sukawati Indonesia  0.1
14 May 2019 11:30 Condon Australia  0.1
14 May 2019 11:30 Pardoo Australia  0.1
13 May 2019 06:30 Waterbank Australia  0.1
14 May 2019 09:00 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.1
09 May 2019 00:15 Mboe Eain Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 00:15 Nembrala Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 00:15 Abuan Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 00:15 Ulua Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 00:15 Toedameda Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 00:15 Batutuah Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 00:15 Oeseda Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 00:15 Namodale Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 00:15 Husdale Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 07:30 Libureng Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 07:30 Marek Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 19:15 Paulohi Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 16:15 Sole Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 16:15 Loki Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 18:30 Wawalalindu Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 18:30 Tinobu Indonesia  0.1
09 May 2019 18:30 Molore Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 19:15 Bonelipu Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 19:15 Mataoleo Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 21:00 Konaweha Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 21:00 Kolaka Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 21:00 Tambea Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 21:00 Poendoei Indonesia  0.1
08 May 2019 21:00 Baru Indonesia  0.1

Calculation folder at this link