Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LILI-19
in Timor-Leste, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LILI-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (11 May 05:30 UTC)
Vulnerability -- (Timor-Leste)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 61 km/h 0.3 m 264 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 79 km/h 0.3 m 517 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 10 May 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 08 May 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 May 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 May 2019 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 May 2019 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 May 2019 12:00 61 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 May 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste152278
+
Indonesia148631 
Timor-Leste3647 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste257082
+
Indonesia194435 
Timor-Leste62647 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 08 May 2019 12:00 523 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 May 2019 00:00 752 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 May 2019 12:00 791 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 May 2019 00:00 393 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 May 2019 12:00 264 150 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Wickham, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 May 2019 05:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 May 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 May 2019 05:30 Wickham Australia  0.3
11 May 2019 05:30 Point Samson Australia  0.3
11 May 2019 05:30 Cossack Australia  0.3
12 May 2019 16:30 Pagatan Indonesia  0.3
12 May 2019 16:30 Pematangdoerian Indonesia  0.3
12 May 2019 16:30 Semisir Indonesia  0.3
12 May 2019 16:30 Tandjungserdang Indonesia  0.3
12 May 2019 16:30 Salinau Indonesia  0.3
10 May 2019 14:15 Sawarangan Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 14:45 Boenati Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 05:45 Dampier Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 05:45 Karratha Australia  0.2
10 May 2019 14:15 Batakam Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 14:15 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
10 May 2019 15:15 Semaras Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 08:45 Mardie Australia  0.2
10 May 2019 15:45 Tapianbalai Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 10:30 Derby Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 15:30 Kollan I Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 04:15 Langadai Indonesia  0.2
12 May 2019 06:45 Pender Australia  0.2
11 May 2019 03:45 Sembelimbingan Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 03:45 Berangas Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 03:45 Soengaibali Indonesia  0.2
11 May 2019 03:15 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
10 May 2019 17:45 The Palms Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 17:45 Larrakeyah Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 17:45 Fannie Bay Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 17:45 Parap Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 17:45 Darwin Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 17:45 Nightcliff Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 17:45 Ludmilla Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 17:45 Bagot Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 17:45 Knuckeys Lagoon Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 17:45 Berrimah Australia  0.1
11 May 2019 12:15 Leanyer Australia  0.1
12 May 2019 05:30 Port Hedland Australia  0.1
12 May 2019 05:30 Wedgefield Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 16:00 Okaoka Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 13:45 East Lewis I Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 18:00 Longar Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 18:00 Baimoeh Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 18:00 Gomo Gomo Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 18:00 Masian Indonesia  0.1
13 May 2019 06:30 Broome Australia  0.1
13 May 2019 06:30 Thangoo Australia  0.1
11 May 2019 01:00 Oud Krai Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 01:00 Krei-lama Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 01:00 Krai Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 04:30 Bahomia Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 04:30 Maiwawa Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 04:30 Djokdjoh Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 04:30 Namasan Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 04:30 Utarom Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 04:30 Kaimana Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 04:30 Moearona Indonesia  0.1
10 May 2019 13:45 Minjilang Australia  0.1
10 May 2019 16:00 Teloekkapalpetjah Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 03:15 Tungkaranasam Indonesia  0.1
11 May 2019 03:15 Sekapoeng Indonesia  0.1

Calculation folder at this link