Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GAMMA-20
in Mexico, Cuba

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GAMMA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico, Cuba
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 111 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (05 Oct 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 56 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 111 km/h 1.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

56 km/h Current

Up to 3 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 02 Oct 2020 15:00 83 3.6 million No people Mexico
Green 2 02 Oct 2020 21:00 93 2.9 million No people Mexico
Green 3 03 Oct 2020 03:00 83 3.8 million No people Mexico
Green 4 03 Oct 2020 09:00 93 4.7 million No people Mexico
Green 5 03 Oct 2020 15:00 111 3.5 million No people Mexico
Green 6 03 Oct 2020 21:00 102 4.3 million No people Mexico
Green 7 04 Oct 2020 03:00 93 4.3 million No people Mexico
Green 8 04 Oct 2020 09:00 93 3.6 million No people Mexico
Green 9 04 Oct 2020 15:00 93 3.3 million No people Mexico
Green 10 04 Oct 2020 21:00 93 3.9 million No people Mexico
Green 11 05 Oct 2020 03:00 93 3.8 million No people Mexico, Cuba
Green 12 05 Oct 2020 09:00 83 3.7 million No people Mexico, Cuba
Green 13 05 Oct 2020 15:00 74 3.9 million No people Mexico, Cuba
Green 14 05 Oct 2020 21:00 56 3.1 million No people Mexico, Cuba
Green 15 06 Oct 2020 03:00 56 3.1 million No people Mexico, Cuba

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 02 Oct 2020 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.1, -84.7
GREEN
2 02 Oct 2020 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.8, -85.3
GREEN
3 03 Oct 2020 03:00 Tropical storm 65 390000 people no people 19.1, -86.1 Mexico
GREEN
4 03 Oct 2020 09:00 Tropical storm 83 1.4 million people no people 19.4, -86.9 Mexico
GREEN
5 03 Oct 2020 15:00 Tropical storm 111 1.6 million people no people 20, -87.3 Mexico
GREEN
6 03 Oct 2020 21:00 Tropical storm 102 1.6 million people no people 20.7, -87.7 Mexico
GREEN
7 04 Oct 2020 03:00 Tropical storm 93 2.9 million people no people 21.3, -88 Mexico
GREEN
8 04 Oct 2020 09:00 Tropical storm 83 2 million people no people 22, -88.2 Mexico
GREEN
9 04 Oct 2020 15:00 Tropical storm 93 1.3 million people no people 22.2, -88.2 Mexico
GREEN
10 04 Oct 2020 21:00 Tropical storm 93 2.9 million people no people 22.4, -87.8 Mexico
GREEN
11 05 Oct 2020 03:00 Tropical storm 93 1.6 million people no people 22.8, -87.2 Mexico
GREEN
12 05 Oct 2020 09:00 Tropical storm 83 1.6 million people no people 22.7, -87.5 Mexico
GREEN
13 05 Oct 2020 15:00 Tropical storm 74 3.1 million people no people 22.3, -87.6 Mexico
GREEN
14 05 Oct 2020 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 22.1, -88.1 Mexico
GREEN
15 06 Oct 2020 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 21.6, -88.4 Mexico
GREEN
15 06 Oct 2020 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 21.1, -88.9 Mexico
GREEN
15 07 Oct 2020 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 20.2, -89.6 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico
Cuba

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Yucatan Mexico 1.4 million people
Quintana Roo Mexico 530000 people
Pinar del Rio Cuba 720000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Tizimín Yucatán Mexico City 39000 people
Dzilam de Gonzalez Yucatan Mexico City -
Espita Yucatán Mexico City 9900 people
Calotmul Yucatán Mexico City -
Temax Yucatán Mexico City 6000 people
Dzidzantún Yucatán Mexico City 7700 people
Izamal Yucatán Mexico City 14000 people
Valladolid Yucatán Mexico City 39000 people
Motul Yucatán Mexico City 20000 people
Tixkokob Yucatán Mexico City 10000 people
Acancéh Yucatán Mexico City 9300 people
Kanasín Yucatán Mexico City 38000 people
Mérida Yucatán Mexico Major city 630000 people
Tekoh Yucatan Mexico City -
Tekit Yucatán Mexico City 8800 people
Cancún Quintana Roo Mexico Major city 880000 people
Peto Yucatán Mexico City 17000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Cupul TZM 17 0
24 0
Chichen Itza CZA 31 0
Lic M Crecencio Rejon International MID 10 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
Cancun International CUN 5 Civ. Paved Yes 11400
Puerto Juarez PJZ unknown 0
Playa Del Carmen PCM unknown 0
Isla Mujeres ISJ 2 Civ. Paved No 3900
Tulum TUY 2 0
Cozumel International CZM 5 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
Carrillo Puerto 61 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
El Cuyo Mexico
Progreso MXPGO Mexico
Puerto Morelas Mexico
Cozumel MXCZM Mexico
Herrero Point Mexico

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.2m in Majana, Cuba. This height is estimated for 05 Oct 2020 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (599 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 05 Oct 2020 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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